Date: October 1, 2014 To: Friends of Democracy Corps and NextGen Climate From: Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Andrew Baumann and Mallory Totzke, GQRR Millennials Demand Actionn on Climate Will Punish Ignorant Politicians Who Deny Climate Change A new survey 1 of presidential-year millennial voters in four critical battleground states, conduct- that demands federal action including those who are likely to vote next week. Perhaps more important, they have no time for politicians who would deny sciencee by claiming that climate change is not caused by humans. In an open-ended response, a large majority of millennials de- ed for NextGen Climate and Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, shows that a strong majority of these voters across all four states view climate change as a significant threat scribe such politicians as ignorant, stupid, out of touch or something similar. One im- portant finding is that independent millenniall voters are much closerr to Democratic millennials than they are to ublican millennials, on nearly every measure tested, again showing over- whelming support for climate action. Only the 11 percent of millennials who identify as con- servativee ublicans show solid backing for climate change deniers. Meanwhile, an overwhelming margin of millennial voters including ublicans say climate change denial would make them less likely to support a candidate with more than 41 percent saying it would disqualify that candidate regardless of their other positions. With such strong sentiments, it is not surprising that millenniall voters prefer a candidate who backs climate action over one who denies climate science by nearly 50 points. Millennial voters hold overwhelmingly favorable view of EPA, disdain for Kochs, oil companies Millennial voters in these four states give both the EPA and environmental groups a two-to-one favorability ratio, significantly higher than non-millennials gave these same entities in our recent 1 The follo owing memo is based on a survey of 1,000 voters in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida (250 per state) age 18 4 who either voted in 2012 or were too young to doo so conducted October 21-28. The survey was conducted via cell phone (2/ of the sample) and Internet (1/ of thee sample), with a small additional landline sam- Roughly half of the sample are likely 2014 voters, as defined by a combination of past vote history from the voter file, wheree available, stated past vote history, where not, and stated 2014 vote intention. Also referenced are results among non-millennials from a national survey of 950 2012 voters conducted October ple in New Hampshire. The margin of error for the entire sample is.1 percent. For each state it is 6.2 percent. 16-21.
2 Non-millennial data in all tables from national survey conducted Oct. 16-21. For full language of all questions, see Frequency Questionnaire. national survey. More important, as we see on nearly every measuree in this survey, millennial independents look much more like Democrats, and also give these groups overwhelmingly posi- tive ratings. Meanwhile, millennial voters hold overwhelmingly negative views of both the Koch Brothers and, especially, oil companies who garner a putrid 15/58 percent favorability rating. Coal com- panies also receive negative ratings, but do not earn quitee the same level of hatred as oil compa- nies. Again, independents have overwhelmin ngly negative views of the Kochs and their oil com- pany brethren, and even ublican millennials have negative viewss toward oil companies. Millennials in New Hampshire are particularly negative toward oil companies. Total Diff. Non Not Mil 2 CO FL IA NH Dem Ind EPA Environmental groups Coal companies Koch brothers Oil companies 49/2 48/24 18/6 9/8 15/58 +26 +24-18 -29-4 + +11 +12-16 -11 +20 +18-18 -5 - +2 +29-18 -22-40 +25 +22-11 -4 - +22 +22-18 -1-5 +25 +15-16 -4-6 +1 +4-25 - -65 +5 +4-8 -40-5 +1 +6-12 -4 - -0-9 -1 +1-14 Now, please rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Taking action on climate significantly more important to millennials than reducing regula- tion on businesses Unsurprisingly, millennials in these states put overwhelming emphasis on improving the econo- emphasiss on taking action on climate than on reducing regulation on businesses, as percent rate such action an extremely or very important issue forr the country (with another 29 percent calling it somewhat important). my and creating jobs. However, unlike their older counterparts, they also place a much greater Total Non Not Mil CO FL IA NH Dem Ind Getting economy moving, creating jobs Taking action to prevent climate change Reducing regulations on businesses 85 28 9 44 41 5 8 21 8 5 2 90 54 6 82 51 28 85 56 24 92 4 2 24 8 22 Below is a list of issuess facing the country. For each one, please rate important you find that issue to be. Is it EXTREMELY important, VERY important, just SOMEWHAT important, NOT AT ALLL im- portant or are you not sure? (PERCENT SAYING EXTREMELY OR VERY) 2
Millennials perceivee climate change as a significant threat, support government action to combat it Two thirds of millennials view climate change as a serious threat that requires action now or in the years ahead, 14 points higher than non-millennials. And an overwhelming -to-1 ratio be- 26 percent are not sure, likely because they don t know that the government is currently doing). Again, on both of these questions, independents look much more like Democrats. Women and lieve thatt the federal government should be doing more, not less, to address the problem (another millennials in Colorado and New Hampshire are especially concerned about the threat of climate change and supportive of government action to address it. Tot Non Mil CO FL IA NH Men Views on climate change Severe threat, must address now Threat, but not urgent now May be happening, but hu- mans can t affect Not really happening Not sure Total Threat 21 2 6 40 12 5 52 21 19 6 42 16 28 12 5 20 2 4 66 25 20 2 4 18 29 Which of the following best describes your view of climate change? Women 49 22 19 1 Dem Ind 64 49 21 20 9 2 1 2 5 6 85 69 14 2 9 10 Government Involvement Should do more Should do less Right amount Not sure 49 1 8 25 5 5 26 16 8 5 0 22 20 1 5 8 0 29 50 44 15 24 12 12 22 21 54 11 5 0 6 5 14 6 24 26 22 40 12 2 More Less 2 9 41 25 29 5 20 4 56 9-18 Do you think the federal government should be doing more or less to address the problem of cli- mate change, is it currently doing the right amount, or are you unsure? Millennials overwhelmingly reject false choice of climate vs. economy; believe climate ac- tion will create jobs. Over three quarters of millenniall voters reject the false choice put forth by climate change deni- ers that the country needs to choose between combating climate change and the economy. In fact, nearly the same amount agree that taking action on climate change will create jobs by en- but majorities or pluralities of ublicans as well. couraging innovation. This includes not only strong majorities of Democrats and independents, Meanwhile, there is nearly percent agreement that carbon pollution is having a significant negative impact on both climate and health, and that by refusing to take action, older generations
are leaving the millennials generation a mess to clean up. And a -25 percent majority also agrees the climate change is increasing the number and severity of extreme weather events in their state and around the country. Strongly Total Not Agree Agree CO FL IA NH Dem Ind Possible to combat climate change and have a strong economy; don t have to choose Combatting climate change will create more jobs, encourage innovation Carbon pollution negatively impacting our climate, health Inaction means my generation cleaning up older generation s mess Climate change is increasing number, severity of extreme weather events 50 41 42 8 0 69 68 8 1 6 64 5 5 66 59 2 6 5 6 5 5 65 66 6 8 6 6 64 8 8 8 9 4 59 58 4 4 2 Below are a few statementss about the issue of climate change. For each one, please tell me if you agree or disagree with that statement, or if you are unsure. Millennials strongly back a candidate who supports climate action over a climate change denier An overwhelming -to-1 ratio of millennials, 1-22 percent, would support a candidate who backs taking action on climate change over one who denies climate science. This includes huge majorities across all four states (but particularly in New Hampshire),, and of Democrats and in- dependents. Even ublican millennials are split evenlyy on this question. When choice is added into the equation, the results don tt change much overall, but this signifi- cantly polarizes the issue, boosting support for the pro-climate action candidate among Demo- crats, but eroding it among ublicans. Interestingly, adding choice improves the margin in Coloradoo and Florida and among women, but reduces support in Iowa and New Hampshire and with men. 4
CLIMATE ONLY Candidate A Candidate B Undecided Candidate A-Candidate B Total CO FL IA NH Men Women Dem Ind 1 69 6 22 8 8 4 22 22 28 244 16 25 20 1 19 6 49 10 4 5 9 5 488 6 5 5 5 9 1 CLIMATE W/CHOICE Candidate A Candidate B Undecided Candidate A-Candidate B 1 6 1 1 4 60 26 24 2 24 5 18 0 52 6 48 266 2 50 5 25 2 96 2 26 4 2 1-5 92 49 - CLIMATE ONLY W/ /CHOICE 4-5 -9 222 12 20-9 -22 6 44 And thinking again about the election for Congress next month, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today and the choices were: (CLIMATE) Candidate A, who supports taking action to combat climate change or Candidate B, who denies the science of climate change. (CLIMATE W/CHOICE) Candidate A who supports takingg action to combat climate change and who supports a woman's right to choose or Candidate B who denies the science of climate change, and who wants to outlaw most abortions. Would you vote for candidate A or candidate B, or would you be undecided? Climate change denial one of most disqualifying positions for millennials Climate change denial could be a death blow for candidates among this important bloc more so than nearly any other issue tested. An overwhelming 6-11 percent margin say that they would be less likely to support a candidate who denies climate science and rejecting NASA, the US military and 9 percent of scientists. In fact, percent say it would make them MUCH less likely to support such a candidate, and 41 percent say that they could NEVER support a candidate who holds this position. Moreover, there is remarkable cross-partisan consensus on this position even a strong plurality of ub- licans say climate change denial would make them less likely to back such a candidate. This is a more disqualifying issue for these voters than all but onee other issue tested bigger than support- ing overturning Roe v. Wade, opposing gay marriage, opposing background checks, or compre- hensive immigration reform. Meanwhile, a similar margin would be less likely to votee for a candidate who took large contri- butions from the oil and gas industry, thoughh there is much less intensity here. 5
More Less Much Could Less Never Net CO FL IA NH Dem Ind Voted to double student loan int. rates 5 8 50-8 -5-8 - -9-82 -81-66 Denied climate change, rejecting NASA, mili- 11 6 41-56 - -9 - - -5 - -28 tary, scientists Accepted oil and gas industry contributions 6 5 40 20-51 - - -50-54 - -50-26 Opposed background checks on gun sales 1 60 44 2-4 -42 - -9 - -68-44 -2 Wants to overturn Roe vs. Wade 20 65 54 - -49 - -28-5 -69-59 29 Wanted to make same- sex marriage illegal 19 51 42-4 -49-29 -48-4 -58-49 -8 Opposed pathway to citizenship for illegal 25 50 18-25 -9-1 -29-1 -51-20 immigrants Below is a list of stancess that a candidate for office could take on a few important issues. For each one, please tell me if a candidate held that position would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or would it make no difference? (IF MUCH LESS LIKELY) Could you ever vote for a candidate who held that position? Millennials describee politicians who deny climate science as ignorant, uneducated, idiots. As illustrated in the word cloud below, when these millennials are asked to describe, in their own words, a politician who denies climate science, 6 percent offer a negative response, with the dominant responses centered on that politician being ignorant, either stupid, an idiot, uneducated and out of touch with reality. 6
(SPLIT A) In your own words, how would you describe a politician who denies that climate change is a real problem? (SPLIT B) In your own words, how would you describe a politician who denies basic sciencee and does not believe that climate change is caused by humans? Millennial voters show overwhelming support for investment in clean energy and action on climate, including EPA limits on carbon pollution. Millennials across this battleground evince overwhelmin ng support for policies that would reduce carbon climate pollution. Three quarters or more support the EPA placing limits on carbon pol- to lution from power plants, investing in 21 st century infrastructure, undertaking a national effort reduce carbon pollution, and investing clean energy while reducing the use of traditional sources like coal and oil. Strong support is at least 42 percent forr each of these policies. Strongly Totall Agree Agreee CO FL IA NH Dem Ind Invest more in clean energy while reducing traditional energy use Undertake significant effort to reduce carbon pollution Create clean energy jobs by investing in 21 st century energy infrastructure Have EPA place limits on carbon pollution from power plants Require businesses to a 0 percent RES by 200 Eliminate oil and gas company tax breaks 5 48 42 42 9 8 9 9 1 8 6 81 9 84 5 1 5 6 9 88 90 66 5 91 91 9 89 6 8 85 8 2 69 69 Now I am going to read you a list of policies that some people have proposed. After I read each one, please tell me if you would support or opposee that policy or if you are unsure. 65 52 60 52 54 4