Election 2012 in Review

Election 2012 in Review Photo source: AP, Bradenton Herald John John Coleman Coleman University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Clark University Harrington Lecture, October 24, 2011 Clark University Bascom Harrington Hill Society, Lecture, November October 24, 13, 2011 2012

The Presidential Election A challenging environment for President Obama Photo source: AP John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Approval of Handling the Economy: Start of Term Through 12-31-11 Disapprove Approve Source: Pollster.com John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

The Presidential Election A challenging environment for the incumbent leads opponents to sense opportunity John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Photos: AP John Coleman University of Wisconsin

John Coleman University of Wisconsin

John Coleman University of Wisconsin

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Higher support among somewhat conservative Percent of people who are somewhat conservative who support the candidate minus the percent of people who are very conservative who support the candidate 0% -5% GINGRICH PAUL ROMNEY SANTORUM -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Higher support among very conservative Iowa NH SC Fla Nev Ariz Mich Mass Ohio Tenn VT Ga Ala Miss Ill Lou Md Wis John Coleman University of Wisconsin

The Presidential Election As the Republican nomination battle heats up Some improving signs for the President John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Approval of Handling the Economy: January 2011 Through Present Disapprove 2012 Approve Source: Pollster.com John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Approval of Handling the Economy: January 2011 Through Present Up 10 2012 Source: Pollster.com John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

If Voters Vote the Trendline Unemployment rate change Jan-Oct Year President Outcome -0.6 points 1984 Reagan Re-elected -0.5 points 1964 Johnson Re-elected -0.4 points 1996 Clinton Re-elected -0.4 points 2012 Obama -0.2 points 2004 GW Bush Re-elected -0.2 points 1972 Nixon Re-elected -0.2 points 1976 Ford Defeated -0.1 points 1956 Eisenhower Re-elected 0.0 points 1992 Bush Defeated +0.3 points 1948 Truman Re-elected +1.2 points 1980 Carter Defeated John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

If Voters Vote the Trendline Unemployment rate change Jan-Oct Year President Outcome -0.6 points 1984 Reagan Re-elected -0.5 points 1964 Johnson Re-elected -0.4 points 1996 Clinton Re-elected -0.4 points 2012 Obama Re-elected -0.2 points 2004 GW Bush Re-elected -0.2 points 1972 Nixon Re-elected -0.2 points 1976 Ford Defeated -0.1 points 1956 Eisenhower Re-elected 0.0 points 1992 Bush Defeated +0.3 points 1948 Truman Re-elected +1.2 points 1980 Carter Defeated John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Models Mixed, but Edge Obama Source: PS: Political Science and Politics John Coleman University of Wisconsin

John Coleman University of Wisconsin

End of RNC John Coleman University of Wisconsin

End of DNC John Coleman University of Wisconsin

First debate John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Source: Pollyvote.com John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Results Status quo, but advantage Democrats Obama 51-49% popular, 332-206 electoral Senate: +2 seats for Democrats House: +5 seats for Democrats, 7 undecided John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Results Turnout down, but votes still being counted Obama down about 7 million Romney down about 1 million Obama first since 1832 to have drop in popular vote share in re-election to 2 nd term John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Results President s support drops among most groups Obama wins all but one battleground state John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Only Two States Change in 2012 Republican pickups Source: CNN.com John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Most Counties Move To Right Source: New York Times John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Most Groups Moved To Right Including the Young and Women Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Hispanics & Asians Shifted to Left Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Women and the Young Moved to the Right But Not in Key Battlegrounds Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Women and the Young Moved to the Right But Not in Key Battlegrounds Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Women and the Young Moved to the Right But Not in Key Battlegrounds Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Less Key Battlegrounds Match the National Patterns Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

Obama Strategic Advantages Started negative ads early to define Romney Romney ads (like Obama s) stayed negative, did not strongly redefine Romney John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Obama Strategic Advantages Obama controlled his ads: cohesive message Obama campaign ran 86% of all pro-obama spots (503k through Oct.) Romney campaign ran 36% of all pro-romney spots (191k thru Oct.) More reliance on ads run by groups, less message control John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Obama Strategic Advantages Obama s ads cheaper, more bang for buck Campaigns purchasing strategies differ Groups pay higher rates than candidates Superior microtargeting John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Ad Strategies Obama themes, October Taxes 49% Econ. Inequity 26% Deficit 21% Health care 16% Jobs 15% Romney themes, October Jobs 82% Deficit 59% Govt spending 47% Taxes 36% Recess./stimulus 25% Of the 59% of voters who identified the economy as the most important issue in their vote, Romney won... But only by 51-47.

Ad Strategies Obama themes, October Taxes 49% Econ. Inequity 26% Deficit 21% Health care 16% Jobs 15% Romney themes, October Jobs 82% Deficit 59% Govt spending 47% Taxes 36% Recess./stimulus 25% Most important candidate trait: Shares my values (27%): Romney +13 pts Is a strong leader (18%): Romney +23 pts Has vision for future (29%): Romney +9 pts Cares about people like me (21%): Obama +63 pts

Supporters Obama Women +11 pts 18-29 +23 30-44 +7 Latino +44 Moderate +15 < $50,000 +22 Low/no relig services +17 Romney Men +7 pts 45-64 +4 65+ +12 White +20 Independent +5 >$50,000 +8 Freq. relig services +20

The Gender Gap and Race/Ethnicity Black women: +93 points Obama Latino women: +53 points Obama White women: +14 points Romney Black men: Latino men: White men: +76 points Obama +32 points Obama +27 points Romney John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

The Age Gap and Race/Ethnicity Black 18-29: Latino 18-29: White 18-29: +83 points Obama +51 points Obama +7 points Romney Black 45-64: Latino 45-64: White 45-64: +86 points Obama +37 points Obama +23 points Romney John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Results in the States Democrats gain 3 state legislatures Now control 18 Republicans steady at 26 Remainder have split control Republicans add 1 governorship, now 30 John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Wisconsin Wisconsin... remains Wisconsin Barack Obama (D) wins presidential Tammy Baldwin (D) wins US Senate, to join Ron Johnson (R) US House delegation split 5R, 3D Republicans regain control of State Senate and unified control of state government Scott Walker approval is 52-46 in exit polls 18% of those approving of Gov. Walker... voted for President Obama John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Conclusion Status quo election with edge to Democrats nationally Economy somewhat defused as issue allowed Democrats room to mobilize on other issues Republicans control more state legislatures and governorships John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

Conclusion Republicans face demographic campaign challenges Democrats face fiscal/political challenges John Coleman - University of Wisconsin