Election 2014: Its Impact on Federal Policy-Making in 2015 Slade Gorton, Bart Gordon, Jim Walsh, Manny Rouvelas and Rick Valentine Copyright 2014 by K&L Gates LLP. All rights reserved.
Former Senator Slade Gorton (R-WA) Former Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) Former Rep. Jim Walsh (R-NY) Manny Rouvelas klgates.com 2
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE Map from Real Clear Politics as of November 3, 2014 klgates.com 3
The 16 Most Competitive Senate Races Montana Curtis (D) Daines (R) Daines +18.0%* Romney 55.3% West Virginia Tennant (D) Capito (R) Capito +16.6%* Romney 62.3% South Dakota Weiland (D) Rounds (R) Rounds +12.2%* Romney 57.9% Arkansas Pryor (D) Cotton (R) Cotton +7.1%* Romney 60.5% Louisiana Landrieu (D) Cassidy (R) Cassidy +4.6%* Romney 57.8% Colorado Udall (D) Gardner (R) Gardner +3.9%* Obama 51.2% Alaska Begich (D) Sullivan (R) Sullivan +2.4%* Romney 55.3% Iowa Braley (D) Ernst (R) Ernst +1.8%* Obama 52.1% Kansas Orman (I) Roberts (R) Orman +0.7%** Romney 60.0% New Hampshire Shaheen (D) Brown (R) Shaheen +.9% Obama 52.2% North Carolina Hagan (D) Tillis (R) Hagan +1.1% Romney 50.6% Georgia Nunn (D) Perdue (R) Perdue +2.2% Romney 53.4% Kentucky Grimes (D) McConnell (R) McConnell +6.5% Romney 60.5% Minnesota Franken (D) McFadden (R) Franken +9.5% Obama 52.8% Virginia Warner (D) Gillespie (R) Warner +9.7% Obama 50.8% Michigan Peters (D) Land (R) Peters +12.4% Obama 54.3% *Republican gain of a seat now held by a Democrat (8) **Orman has said that he will join the conference of the majority party Polling numbers are based on the Real Clear Politics averages as of November 3, 2014 klgates.com 4
Lame Duck Session: Projected Agenda if Republicans Win the Senate Continuing Resolution for Appropriations until Spring Extension of Expired/Expiring Tax Provisions National Defense Authorization Act ISIS Use of Force Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) Reauthorization Confirmation of New Attorney General Confirmation of other Nominees to Executive Branch Positions Confirmation of Judicial Nominees klgates.com 5
Projected Agenda for the 114 th Congress (Under Republican Control of Senate) 1. Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) Amendments 2. Tax Reform 3. Budget Resolution 4. Patent Reform 5. Entitlement (Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security) Reform 6. Trade Promotion Authority 7. Keystone XL Pipeline 8. Dodd-Frank Amendments 9. Greenhouse Gases Regulation Reform 10.Oversight of Obama Administration 11.Highway Bill klgates.com 6
Projected Senate Committee Chairmen for 114 th Congress Committee Republican Chair/ Ranking Member Democratic Chair/ Ranking Member Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Senator Pat Roberts Senator Debbie Stabenow Appropriations Senator Thad Cochran Senator Barbara Mikulski Armed Services Senator John McCain Senator Jack Reed Banking Senator Richard Shelby Senator Chuck Schumer Budget Senator Mike Enzi Senator Bernie Sanders Commerce Senator John Thune Senator Bill Nelson Energy Senator Lisa Murkowski Senator Mary Landrieu Environment and Public Senator Jim Inhofe Senator Barbara Boxer Works Finance Senator Orrin Hatch Senator Ron Wyden Foreign Relations Senator Bob Corker Senator Bob Menendez Health, Education, Labor Senator Lamar Alexander Senator Patty Murray and Pensions Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Senator Ron Johnson Senator Tom Carper Judiciary Senator Charles Grassley Senator Pat Leahy Rules and Administration Senator Roy Blunt Senator Mark Pryor Small Business and Senator Jim Risch Senator Maria Cantwell Entrepreneurship Veterans Affairs Senator Johnny Isakson Senator Sherrod Brown Indian Affairs Senator John Barrasso Senator Jon Tester Intelligence Senator Richard Burr Senator Diane Feinstein Aging Senator Susan Collins Senator Bob Casey Ethics NOTE: All Current GOP Members Ineligible; to be appointed by Leader Senator Barbara Boxer klgates.com 7
Democratic Congressional Leadership Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) Democratic Policy Committee Chair Chuck Schumer (D-NY) Assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn (D-SC) Democratic Caucus Chair Xavier Becerra (D-CA) klgates.com 8
Projected House Committee Ranking Member Changes in the 114 th Congress Education and the Workforce Bobby Scott Energy & Commerce Anna Eshoo/Frank Pallone Veterans Affairs Corrine Brown klgates.com 9
Potential Republican Pick Ups Member/District Rating Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ-1) Leans Republican Ami Bera (D-CA-7) Leans Republican Joe Garcia (D-FL-26) Leans Republican Bill Enyart (D-IL-12) Leans Republican Brad Schneider (D-IL-10) Leans Republican Rick Nolan (D-MN-8) Leans Republican Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) Leans Republican John F. Tierney (D-MA-6) open Leans Democrat Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) Leans Republican Bill Owens (D-NY-21) retiring Likely Republican Dan Maffei (D-NY-24) Leans Democrat Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7) retiring Likely Republican Jim Matheson (D-UT-4) retiring Likely Republican Based on Sabato's Crystal Ball as of October 30, 2014 klgates.com 10
Projected House Committee Chairmanship Changes in the 114 th Congress Committee Agriculture Armed Services Budget Education Natural Resources Oversight Ways and Means Projected Chairman Michael Conaway Mac Thornberry Tom Price Virginia Foxx Rob Bishop John Mica/Jim Jordan/ Michael Turner/Jason Chaffetz Paul Ryan klgates.com 11
Electoral Volatility 2000 Change White House 2006 Change House & Senate 2008 Change White House 2010 Change House 2014??? klgates.com 12
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The K&L Gates Approach Prompt adjustments based on election results Bipartisan, multi-branch, full policy lifecycle Substantive expertise and sophisticated advocacy skills Quality communications Direct and indirect outreach Continuous engagement If you re not at the table, you re on the menu. klgates.com 14
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