October 30, 2017 Himachal Pradesh Pre-Election Survey, 2017 About the Survey A pre-election survey was conducted in Himachal Pradesh by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from October 21 through October 27, 2017 among 2,815 voters in 115 locations (polling stations) spread across 30 assembly constituencies (the State has a total of 68 assembly constituencies). The sampling design adopted was multi-stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, four polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. The field investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Hindi asking them a set of standardized questions. The duration of an interview was about 30 minutes. The survey could not be conducted at 5 locations. At some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements or substitutions. The achieved raw sample is quite representative of Himachal Pradesh s population profile. It has nevertheless been weighted by gender, locality, religion, and caste group based on Census 2011. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Profile of Achieved Sample Survey Sample (raw) Census 2011 Scheduled Caste 26.2 25.1 Scheduled Tribe 2.5 5.7 Women 48.2 49.2 Urban 7.9 10.0 Himachali penchant for rotating power most likely to continue Despite unpopularity of GST and demonetization, BJP ahead of ruling Congress at the moment For the past nearly three decades political power in Himachal Pradesh has alternated between the Indian National Congress (Congress) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during every election cycle. In each of the six assembly elections that have been held in the hill state since 1990, the incumbent party has never managed to win the majority of seats in the assembly and thus failed to return to office. The upcoming assembly election in the state might be no different from this trend. A Lokniti-ABP News survey conducted in the state between October 21st and 27th, just about two weeks before the 2017 assembly elections, found the BJP to be ahead of the ruling Congress in terms of people s voting preference. When 2,815 randomly sampled voters spread across 115 locations in 30 assembly constituencies were asked who they would vote for, if assembly elections were held the very next day, 47 percent of them chose the BJP and 41 percent backed the Congress. While a last minute shift to the Congress during the course of the next ten days cannot be ruled out, such a swing may not be very likely. That s because the survey found those planning to vote for the Congress to be only slightly more committed to their party of choice than BJP s voters. In fact, there is hardly any difference. While 77 percent of Congress voters indicated that come voting day on vember 9 they would stick to their choice and vote for none other than the Congress, this figure of commitment towards the BJP among BJP
voters was found to be nearly as high at 74 percent. Interestingly though, compared to the Congress voter, the BJP voter was found to be less driven by party loyalty and more by loyalty towards a candidate or a leader. Whereas two in every three, or 64 percent of Congress voters said that their main consideration for voting for the Congress was party and not candidate or leader, among BJP voters the proportion of those who said they were voting for BJP because of party consideration was fifteen points less at 49 percent. Even as the BJP leads the Congress in overall terms, the survey did not find its popularity to be spread out evenly across Himachal Pradesh. It was found to be comfortably leading over the Congress in the eastern part of the State (Shimla, Solan, Sirmour, Mandi, Kullu, Lahual-Spiti and Kinnaur districts), but trailing it (though not by a wide margin) in the Western part (Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, Bilaspur districts). This regional voting pattern thrown up by the survey is a bit perplexing since the Congress has traditionally done well in the old areas of Himachal and the BJP in the new parts. One explanation for this counter intuitive pattern could be the factional feuds that both the parties are facing in their stronghold areas. In the survey a slightly greater proportion of voters in West Himachal saw the BJP as being more faction-ridden than the Congress. On the other hand in East Himachal most voters saw it the other way around that the Congress was more factionalized. On the whole, even as both parties are confronted with the problem of factionalism in their bastions, overall it seems to be affecting the Congress much more than the BJP. While it was found that most of the traditional BJP voters would have liked two-time chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal s name to be declared as the party s chief ministerial candidate, they are nonetheless not holding any grudge against the party, for now. 91 percent of Dhumal s supporters (those who wanted to see him as the next chief minister) and 94% of Union Minister J P Nadda s supporters (considered to be Dhumal s rival in the party) were found to be voting for the BJP. Significantly, Dhumal also emerged as the top choice of all respondents for the post of chief minister (31 percent) in the survey, edging out the current and six-time chief minister Virbhadra Singh by two percentage points. At the same time it must be added that Dhumal was slightly less liked than Singh (63 percent to 67 percent) when voters were asked to rate them in terms of likeability. It could be safely argued that both Dhumal and Singh continue to be Himachal s tallest leaders. The Congress, meanwhile, seems to paying a much bigger price for its factional feuds. The survey found only supporters of Virbhadra Singh to be enthusiastically voting for the party (96 percent are). Supporters of Himachal Pradesh Congress President Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu, who is said to represent the rival faction within the party, are not showing the same kind of loyalty. A sizeable 7 percent of the respondents spontaneously took Sukhu s name as their chief ministerial choice. However, only 82% of them were found to be backing the Congress. In fact it could be argued that had it not been for this intra-party rivalry, the Congress had a good chance of bucking Himachal s rotation of power history. Such a scenario might have been possible primarily because overall the survey found the voters to be highly satisfied with the State government s performance. About 67 percent or two-thirds of the voters said they were satisfied with work done by the State government during the last five years. Most voters also rated the government s performance fairly positively on most matters of governance - be it schools, roads, drinking water or electricity supply. On the crucial issue of corruption as well, a plurality (43 percent) thought that it had declined during the tenure of Virbhadra Singh s government. In fact, 68% or two in every three voters were of the opinion that Virbhadra Singh was being falsely implicated in corruption cases. Moreover, the survey did not find a sentiment of anti-incumbency to be prevailing in the state; if anything it was more pro than anti. When asked whether the Congress government in the state should get another chance, 43 percent or two in every five answered in the affirmative and 34 percent or one-third said no, with about one-fourth remaining non-committal. It is this non-committal segment that seems to have mostly swung towards the BJP. Significantly, many non-congress and non-bjp voters were also of the
opinion that the Congress government should get another chance. In response to another question such voters also saw the Virbhadra government as having performed better than the previous Dhumal government (26 percent to 15 percent). Even though the BJP is the frontrunner in the State at the moment and is likely to emerge victorious, the survey shows some red flags for it as well. Most voters in the survey saw both Demonetization and GST as being kharaab or bad decisions taken by the Narendra Modi government than achchhe or good. In fact, with regard to Demonetization, this is the first time that a survey done by Lokniti in any state in the last one year has thrown up such a negative assessment. In all previous state election surveys, such as in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh earlier this year and an all-india survey done in May this year, Demonetization had been viewed in a positive light by most voters. 43 percent of Himachali voters, however, said Demonetization by the Modi government last vember was a bad move while only 37 percent said it was good. About 30 percent were ambivalent, saying it was a theek-thaak or so-so move. GST was found to be even more unpopular than Demonetization in Himachal. t only did more voters see it as a bad move than good (46 percent to 19 percent), a plurality (49 percent), including many BJP voters, also said they were dissatisfied with the recent concessions announced by the government with respect to GST. Such is the disappointment with respect to GST that when voters were asked in an open-ended question what the most important voting issue was going to be for them in the coming election, GST emerged as the second most important issue behind economic inequality. This negative perception of GST seems to also have impacted Prime Minister Narendra Modi s popularity in the state. He was found to be less liked by the voters than Amit Shah and Rahul Gandhi. While 69 percent of the respondents said that they liked Modi, the proportion of those who like Rahul Gandhi was higher at 71 percent and Shah even higher at 79 percent. Moreover, even though most voters said they were satisfied (31 percent fully satisfied and 41 percent somewhat so) with Modi government s performance during the last three and a half years, a majority (57 percent) were also of the opinion that Modi had failed to bring the Achchhe Din or good days that he had promised. Many (76 percent) were also of the view that the Central government has discriminated against Himachal Pradesh.
Important findings from the Survey Himachal Pradesh voters voting intention two weeks before the vember 9 assembly elections Voting intention in fourth week of October 2017 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 47 Congress (Cong) 41 Others 12 Question asked was: If assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh take place tomorrow, then which party will you vote for? We are giving you a sheet of paper which has the names and symbols of various political parties. Please put a mark next to the party that you would like to vote for and then put the paper in this box. (Give the ballot paper to the respondent and explain what has to be done). BJP leads comfortably in East Himachal, Congress leads narrowly in West Himachal Vote for Cong Vote for BJP Vote for Others East Himachal 37 53 10 West Himachal 45 41 14 te: East Himachal includes Mandi, Kullu, Lahaul and Spiti, Kinnaur, Shimla, Solan and Sirmour districts. West Himachal includes Chamba, Kangra, Hamipur, Una and Bilaspur districts. Both the regions have 34 ACs each. Three of every four voters of Congress and BJP said they won t change their party preference by voting day My vote preference will remain the same My vote preference might change by voting day response on voting day Cong voters 77 17 7 BJP voters 74 16 10 Others voters 65 18 17 Question asked was: (If indicated vote preference) Will you vote for the same party on day of voting to which you just voted for or your decision can change? Congress voters seem more party-centric than BJP voters who are more candidate and leader driven Will vote mostly on basis of Will vote mostly on basis of Will vote mostly on basis of Will vote mostly on basis of response Party Candidate CM candidate national leadership or other factors Cong voters 64 17 10 7 3 BJP voters 49 22 9 19 1 Others voters 41 18 22 13 5 Question asked was: While deciding whom to vote for, what would matter to you the most name of the party, local candidate or Chief Ministerial candidate of a party?
Although Cong is trailing BJP, plurality wants Cong govt. to return including non-cong non-bjp voters Present Cong-led State govt. Present Congled State govt. should perhaps Present Congled State govt. should not get Opinion should continue continue another chance Overall 43 11 34 12 Cong voters 78 9 8 5 BJP voters 14 13 57 16 n-cong, non-bjp voters 36 14 30 21 Question asked was: Should the present Congress government in Himachal Pradesh get another chance? Plurality believes that present Cong govt. has performed better than previous BJP govt. Present Cong govt. better than previous BJP govt. Previous BJP govt. better than present Cong govt. Both have performed equally well Both have performed equally poorly response Overall 36 33 13 8 11 n-cong, non-bjp voters 26 15 11 31 18 Question asked was: If we compare the present Congress government (2012-17) with the previous BJP government (2007-12) which one according to you has been better? Satisfaction with both the state and central governments performance is quite high Virbhadra govt. in State Modi govt. at the Centre Fully satisfied with 28 31 Somewhat satisfied with 39 41 Somewhat dissatisfied with 10 4 Fully dissatisfied with 15 20 opinion 7 4 te: Column percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Questions asked were: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the Congress government in Himachal Pradesh over the last five years? (If satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat). Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the Narendra Modi-led BJP/NDA government at the Centre over the last three years? (If satisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat. If dissatisfied then probe whether fully or somewhat) Virbhadra govt. rated positively on roads, power, water; negatively on hospitals, transport and farmers In last 5 years Improved Deteriorated Remained same response Condition of roads has 52 35 12 1 Condition of govt. hospitals has 36 40 22 2 Electricity supply has.. 47 29 20 5 Drinking water supply has 43 29 24 4 Condition of govt. schools has 36 26 31 8 Facility of public transport has 29 33 30 8 Law and order has 33 32 25 10 Industry and trade has 35 30 24 11 Condition of farmers has 30 37 24 10 Question asked was: w I will talk about the work done by Congress Government of Himachal Pradesh during last five years. Please tell me, whether the conditions of following issues have improved or worsened during the last five years?
Plurality perceives corruption to have reduced in last five years; mixed opinion on job creation In last 5 years Increased Decreased Remained same response Tourism in Himachal 49 35 14 3 Corruption 37 44 16 4 Prices (mehengai) 52 22 23 4 Employment opportunities 38 37 19 7 Illegal land deals 32 24 30 14 Question asked was: Have the following things increased or decreased in Himachal Pradesh during the last five years? Fairly high satisfaction with the performance of both Cong and BJP MLAs who have been renominated In seats where Cong MLAs have been renominated In seats where BJP MLAs have been renominated Fully satisfied with MLA s work 22 23 Somewhat satisfied with MLA s work 56 58 Somewhat dissatisfied with MLA s work 8 10 Fully dissatisfied with MLA s work 10 7 opinion 4 3 te: Column percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Question asked was: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by your current local MLA? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) BJP s Dhumal is the most preferred choice for CM followed closely by Virbhadra Singh Chief Minister Choice Prem Kumar Dhumal (BJP) 31 Virbhadra Singh (Cong) 29 Sukhwinder Sukhu (Cong) 7 J P Nadda (BJP) 5 Anurag Thakur (BJP) 4 Vikramaditya Singh (Cong) 2 Vidya Stokes (Cong) 1 Other names 1 Did not take any name 20 te: Column percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Question asked was: After the upcoming assembly election who would you like to see as the chief minister of Himachal Pradesh? The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e., respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous responses. Amit Shah most liked leader followed by Sukhwinder Sukhu, Rahul Gandhi slightly more liked than Modi Like Dislike response Amit Shah 79 17 4 Sukhwinder Sukhu 72 25 4 Rahul Gandhi 71 27 2 Narendra Modi 69 29 2 Virbhadra Singh 67 31 3 Sonia Gandhi 66 30 5 Anurag Thakur 65 29 6 Prem Kumar Dhumal 63 29 9 Vikramaditya Singh 59 31 10 J P Nadda 46 34 20 Shanta Kumar 45 36 19 Question asked was: Do you like or dislike the following leaders? (Probe whether fully or somewhat like or dislike) Strongly and somewhat like have been merged as Like and strongly and somewhat dislike categories have been merged as Dislike.
Two-thirds of traditional BJP voters of the opinion that the party should have declared a CM candidate BJP should declare a CM candidate BJP should not declare a CM candidate opinion Overall 47 19 34 Traditional BJP voters 63 15 22 Question asked was: According to you, should the BJP declare its chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming assembly elections? Majority of traditional BJP voters wanted Dhumal s name to be declared as CM candidate BJP should have declared BJP should have declared a CM candidate and it a CM candidate and it should have been P K should have been J P Dhumal Nadda BJP should have declared a CM candidate and it should have been Anurag Thakur Overall 48 7 5 Traditional BJP voters 54 10 7 Question asked was: Which leader should the BJP have declared as its chief ministerial candidate? This question was asked in an open ended manner and was only asked to those who believed that the BJP should have declared a CM candidate. Factionalism is hurting Cong more than BJP; 18% Sukhu supporters found to be voting for BJP or Others Voting for Cong Voting for BJP Voting for Others BJP leaders supporters Those who want to see P K Dhumal as next CM 3 91 6 Those who want to see J P Nadda as next CM 2 94 4 Cong leaders supporters Those who want to see Virbhadra Singh as next CM 96 1 3 Those who want to see Sukhwinder Sukhu as next CM 82 12 6 te: The findings above are derived from a cross-tabulation of two questions - 1) After the upcoming assembly election who would you like to see as the chief minister of Himachal Pradesh? 2) If assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh take place tomorrow, then which party will you vote for? Two-thirds of opinion that Virbhadra is being falsely implicated in graft cases including many BJP voters Virbhadra Singh is being falsely implicated in corruption cases Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Overall 34 34 21 6 Cong voters 48 33 11 1 BJP voters 21 35 32 9 te: The rest of the respondent did not answer the question. Question asked was - w I will read out a statement. Please tell me whether do you agree or disagree with it - Virbhadra Singh is being falsely implicated in corruption cases. GST is second most important election issue for voters Most important election issue Poverty/gap between rich and poor 12 Good and Services Tax (GST) 11 Unemployment 9 Corruption 8 Safety of women 8 Development and growth 6 Question asked was: What will be the most important issue for you while voting in the upcoming assembly elections? (te down answer and consult codebook for coding). The question was asked in an open ended manner
Most people view GST and Demonetization negatively Demonetization was a good move 37 Demonetization was a so-so move 19 Demonetization was a bad move 43 opinion 1 GST was a good move 19 GST was a so-so move 30 GST was a bad move 46 opinion 6 te: Percentages for each question may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Question asked was: In your opinion was the decision of Demonetization taken by the Modi government good or bad? Question asked was: In your opinion was the decision of GST taken by the Modi government good or bad? Most people dissatisfied with recent GST concessions announced by Modi government particularly those who view GST as a bad or average move Satisfied with recent GST concessions by Dissatisfied with recent GST concessions by response Modi govt. Modi govt. Overall 27 49 24 Voters who feel GST was a so-so move 21 76 12 Voters who feel GST was a bad move 12 36 43 te: The findings above are derived from a cross-tabulation of two questions 1) In your opinion was the decision of GST taken by the Modi government good or bad? 2) People have different opinions regarding the concessions given by central government in GST recently. Some people think these concessions are enough and are satisfied, while others view these are concessions as being not much and are dissatisfied. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied? Majority, including BJP voters, of opinion that Modi has failed to fulfill his Achchhe Din promise Modi has failed to bring Achchhe Din Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Overall 28 29 20 13 BJP voters 21 30 23 19 te: The rest of the respondent did not answer the question. Question asked was - w I will read out a statement. Please tell me whether do you agree or disagree with it Narendra Modi has failed to bring Achchhe Din.