Urbanization in China Critical Issues in an Era of Rapid Growth Yan Song Department of City and Regional Planning University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3140,,USA Phone: (919)-962-4761 Email: ys@email.unc.edu 1
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Basic Facts 9.59 Million SQ KM (US 9.57 Million SQ KM) 15 % arable land Population: 1.5 Billion (US 300 million) Substantial urbanization since 1978:Urban population: 172 million (18%) in 1978, to 468 million (36%) in 2000, to 46.6% in 2010 7
Urbanization and Economic Growth 8
Emerging problems Increasing Inequality 9
Emerging problems Environmental concern 10
* >3million private cars * ~ 19% increasing rate 11
Dust Storm 12
Water Resource 13
Traditional Residential Development: Hutong Preservation 14
Gated Residential Developments 15
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Rural-Urban migration (population mobility) With the apparent difference in rural and urban areas, people move to cities for high wages and better quality of life pushing factor Pulling factor 150 million in 2010 only 17
Migrant workers Construction Labor-intensive i manufacturing Floating population 18
Environment Quality Ecological Balance Transportation Efficiency Land Resource Protection Farmland l d Protection Historic Preservation Economic Development Social Equity Migrants 19
Migrants in Cities New urban form (urban village) 20
I. The background - Migrants and urban villages II. Redevelopment policies of urban villages III. Are these villages assimilated with cities? IV. Implications Next 21
I. What are urban villages? Some background Urbanization & Rapid urban expansion Different types of land ownership 22
Snapshot Number of Urban Villages Beijing, 332; Guangzhou, 138; Wuhan, 147; Xi an, 417; Taiyuan, 75; Kunming, 288; Shaoxing 45; Shenzhen 437 Land area: 93km 2 50% of residential land 23
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Questions What are the determinants of migration? What are the determinants of migration? Why do migrants choose to live in urban villages? Affordability Network Institutional constraint Are these villages assimilated into the cities? How should the villages be redeveloped? 27
Where do migrants live? Survey and MNL Model The individual characteristics age, education, gender, marital status, and expected length of staying in Shenzhen. The household attributes household income, household composition, measured by if there is child under 18 living together in the place. Institutional characteristics place of Hukou, type of Hukou, and type of enterprise. 28
Findings Rural migrants constrained by income and by institutional constraints 29
Housing price 30 30
Housing Rent 31 31
II. Urban Policies toward Redevelopment of Urban Villages are creating serious and conspicuous problems that jeopardize the progress and development of urbanization, directly or indirectly becoming the root of a disintegration of public security and the environment. (news article from China in brief, 2002). Poor physical condition High crime rate Social equity 32
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III. Assimilation? Approach: Hedonic price model: Rents Selling prices Accounting for different types of villages Survey 38
Hedonic price 39
Survey 238 owners 95 renters 40
More recently Programs - physical environment: ineffectual and harmful Without complementary consideration of re-housing current rural migrants, the renewal of villages - ignite social unrest A shift in emphasis towards improving services in urban villages merits increased attention by urban authorities 41
More recently Differences across villages Shenzhen 2020 For villages with extreme dilapidated structure and public safety hazards, the plan calls for complete redevelopment; For those villages with endurable environment, the plan calls for complementary redevelopment by adding more public facilities and services to the villages. 42
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Summary of implications and findings Urbanizing villages disamenities physical environment, perceived high crime incidents, noise nuisance, and presence of floating population. Short run effective affordable housing Long run segregation? Dilemma Low income housing vs Low income concentration Comprehensive redevelopment package 46
Quotes "Sometimes, I wonder, how many years do I have to struggle in Beijing to progress? - Yao "Ahong" Yongheng, A Migrant. 47
Environment Quality Ecological Balance Transportation Efficiency Land Resource Protection Farmland l d Protection Historic Preservation Economic Development Social Equity Migrants 48
Thank you! 49