LATINO IMMIGRATION ATTITUDES AND SUPPORT FOR THE TWO PARTIES* Ali A. Valenzuela, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Politics, Princeton University Research Fellow, CLALS, American University January 15, 2015 * Prepared for American University s Annual Latino Public Affairs Forum: Prospects and Implications of Immigration Reform Policies, 2015-16.
Questions addressed today! Latino vote in 2014, likely vote in 2016?! Immigration attitudes in 2014, likely attitudes after BO executive action / GOP blocking of exec action?! Role of immigration attitudes in Latino voting?! 2014 U.S. House vote! 2014 U.S. Senate vote! Likely 2016 U.S. Presidential vote
Hypotheses 1. Latino immigration attitudes significant determinants of 2014 House and Senate votes, likely 2016 Pres. vote. 2. To understand Latino immigration attitudes, need to know Latino-specific attributes such as:! Strength of ethnic attachments,! immigrant social networks,! language use,! generation,! and national ancestry;! in addition to more traditional factors such as educational attainment, income, and party identification.
Data and measures! 2014 Election Eve survey conducted by Latino Decisions.! Completed interviews by telephone, using fully bilingual callers, with 4,529 Latino voters in 10 states + nationally.! Political Qs on 2014 House and Senate votes, likely 2016 Pres. vote, candidate favorability, party identification.! Latino-specific Qs: identity label, group consciousness, know an undocumented immigrant, survey/news language, generation (parents, grandparents birthplace), national origin.! Qs on immigration issue: salience/importance, relevance for vote, impact of exec. action on party enthusiasm.
Latino votes in 2014, likely vote in 2016 80 70 72 70 72 60 50 Percent 40 30 28 30 28 20 10 0 2014 House vote 2014 Senate vote 2016 Pres. expected vote Dem / Independent (KS Senate) Republican Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV. Note: National results.
Latino votes in 2014, likely vote in 2016 70 60 50 60 59 52 Percent 40 30 20 23 24 17 16 20 28 10 0 House vote Senate vote 2016 expected vote Dem / Independent (KS Senate) Republican DK / Refused Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV. Note: National results.
Immigration issue SALIENCE Most important issue facing the Latino community that politicians should address? Percent 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Immigration 36 Race/Discrimination 2 Jobs/the economy 23 Education 13 Health care 7 Other issues / DK / Ref 19 Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV. Note: National results.
Immigration issue RELEVANCE How important is the issue of immigration in your decision to vote, and who to vote for in this election? The / one of the most imp. issues 67 Somewhat important issue 20 Not important / DK / Ref 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percent Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV. Note: National results.
Immigration issue POLARIZATION If President Obama enacts an executive order before the end of this year would that make you feel more / less enthusiastic about the Democratic Party? MORE enthusiastic 18 52 LESS enthusiastic 7 15 No effect 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percent Somewhat more/less Much more/less Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV. Note: National results.
Immigration issue POLARIZATION If Republicans block President Obama from taking any action on immigration would that make you feel more / less enthusiastic about the Republican Party? MORE enthusiastic 8 17 LESS enthusiastic 17 52 No effect 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percent Somewhat more/less Much more/less Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV. Note: National results.
Did Latino immigration attitudes help determine their vote preferences?
Latino-specific attributes: ethnic attachments, social networks and language use Label preference Latino: 25% No pref: 23% Hispanic: 52% Vote motivation Support Latinos: 38% Support Reps: 16% Support Dems: 33% DK/Ref/Other: 13% Know undocumented Yes: 55% No: 39% DK/Ref: 6% Survey language Spanish: 35% English: 65% News language Mostly Spanish: 27% Mostly English: 51% Both equal: 16% None/ DK/Ref: 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV. Note: National results.
Determinants of Democratic vote choice Immigration most imp. issue facing Latinos Immigration imp. for vote decision More enthusiasm for Dems if exec action More enthusiasm for GOP if blocked action Voted to support the Dems 2014 House 2014 Senate 2016 Pres. Voted to support Latinos Voted to support the GOP Democratic PID -0.45-0.35-0.25-0.15-0.05 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 Change in predicted probability of Democratic vote choice
Summary of results! Executive action by Pres. Obama and the Republican Congress s efforts to block are both polarizing among Latinos:! Supporters of action are much more enthusiastic about the Democratic Party in light of action by Obama; detractors are much less enthusiastic.! Supporters are much less enthusiastic about the Republican Party if executive action is blocked; detractors are much more enthusiastic.
Summary of results! Executive action by Pres. Obama and the Republican Congress s efforts to block are both polarizing among Latinos:! Supporters of action are much more enthusiastic about the Democratic Party in light of action by Obama; detractors are much less enthusiastic.! Supporters are much less enthusiastic about the Republican Party if executive action is blocked; detractors are much more enthusiastic.! Enthusiasm for the parties in light of executive action, or blocked action, is consistently, strongly and positively related to Democratic vote preferences in 2014 and 2016.
Summary of results! Executive action by Pres. Obama and the Republican Congress s efforts to block are both polarizing among Latinos:! Supporters of action are much more enthusiastic about the Democratic Party in light of action by Obama; detractors are much less enthusiastic.! Supporters are much less enthusiastic about the Republican Party if executive action is blocked; detractors are much more enthusiastic.! Enthusiasm for the parties in light of executive action, or blocked action, is consistently, strongly and positively related to Democratic vote preferences in 2014 and 2016.! Immigration issue salience and self-reported relevance to vote are less influential after controlling for Latino-specific attributes that predict these immigration attitudes.
Implications for policymaking and Election 2016! Efforts to change immigration policy through executive action are strongly supported by Latinos, and such action and responses to it impact enthusiasm for the two parties;! Such enthusiasm predicts Latino Democratic vote preferences, even when controlling for a host of other more traditional factors;! Latinos who are less enthusiastic about the Republican Party because of blocked executive action will be less likely to vote GOP in 2016;! Such enthusiasm, its connection to executive action/blocked action, and its impact on vote preferences should be highlighted.
Implications for policymaking and Election 2016! Efforts to change immigration policy through executive action are strongly supported by Latinos, and such action and responses to it impact enthusiasm for the two parties;! Such enthusiasm predicts Latino Democratic vote preferences, even when controlling for a host of other more traditional factors;! Latinos who are less enthusiastic about the Republican Party because of blocked executive action will be less likely to vote GOP in 2016;! Such enthusiasm, its connection to executive action/blocked action, and its impact on vote preferences should be highlighted.! Latino motivations for voting are also key:! Latinos who vote to support the Latino community, perhaps because they feel abandoned by both parties, are less likely to vote Democratic, so the parties must make Latinos feel welcomed if they want their vote.
Thank you! Comments? Questions? aavalenz@princeton.edu