China and India:Convergence and Divergence I. "What China is good at, India is not and vice versa. The countries are inverted mirror of each other».. «very real possibility that China and India will in time learn to capitalise on each other'strengths and compensate for each other's weaknesses". (Tarun Khanna «Billions of entrepreneurs. How China and India Are Reshaping Their Futures and Yours»,2007) 1 Montréal, July 8-9, 2008
China and India:Convergence and Divergence I. Large emerging economies: what is so special about China and India? II. Impact on international trade III. From traditional specialisation to new technology IV. Technological catch-up and quality upgrading V. The debate on sustainable growth strategies 2 Montréal, July 8-9, 2008
I Large emerging economies: what is so special about China & India? 3
There is no unique definition of large emerging economies BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China + South Africa; Emerging Asia : includes also Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, Hongkong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan New entrants in the global economy : China, India and the former Soviet-Union Large emerging economies : China, India, and other manufacturing powerhouses Our criteria > 1% of world GDP and GDP per capita < 11,115 (current US$) Share in the world GDP (% world GDP in current US$) 1993 2006 United States 26.7 United States 27.5 Japan 17.3 Japan 9.0 Germany 8.1 Germany 6.0 France 5.2 China 5.4 Italy 4.1 United Kingdom 4.9 United Kingdom 3.9 France 4.7 Canada 2.3 Italy 3.8 Spain 2.1 Canada 2.6 China 1.8 Spain 2.5 Brazil 1.8 Russia 2.0 Russia 1.8 Brazil 2.0 Mexico 1.6 India 1.9 South Korea 1.5 South Korea 1.8 Netherlands 1.3 Mexico 1.7 Australia 1.3 Australia 1.6 India 1.1 Netherlands 1.4 Switzerland 1.0 Argentina 1.0 Source: CEPII, CHELEM-GDP data base, July 2007. 4
China and India: Common Features China and India are demographic giants The poorest among large emerging economies The fastest growing ones, with steady economic growth over 20 years or more. Huge reserves of labour force Gradual approach to reforms and opening up Determined by domestic priority and constraints (limited external pressures) GDP per capita relative to high income countries (HIC=100, GDP in PPP) 5 Labour force in 2004-05 (millions) sectors Primary Secondary Tertiary All China 340 181 238 758 India 228 83 123 434 Russia 8 19 41 68 Brazil 16 14 45 75 Mexico 4 14 24 42 OECD 30 129 359 518 Source: ILO, 2006. Source: CEPII, CHELEM-GDP data base, July 2007.
China and India: Differences Stronger institutions in India Higher level of income in China Economic structures (share of agriculture/industry service) China is much more open : time lag or structural factors? Sectoral distribution of labour force and value added 2005 (%) Trade in goods and services in % of GDP (export & import average) 35 33 30 27 25 20 15 10 5 4 3 0 85 90 95 00 05 35 30 25 20 20 15 10 5 10 6 4 0 85 90 95 00 05 Total Primary Manufacturing Services services 140 MEX 120 Indust 100 80 60 40 CHN IND BRA RUS Manufacturing exports share in manufacturing value added (%) Agric 20 Labour Labour 0 80 85 90 95 00 05 Source: World Bank, WDI. 6
II Impact on international trade 7
India lags far behind China in exports of manufactured products, but is almost at par with China in exports of services Share in world exports of manufactured goods 1995 2006 China 3,6 11,7 Mexico 1,6 2,3 Brazil 0,7 0,9 India 0,5 0,9 4 LEE 6,4 15,7 China: the second world exporter of manufactured products (after Germany) World 100,0 100,0 Share in world exports of services 1995 2006 China 1,6 3,3 India 0,6 2,7 Brazil 0,5 0,7 Mexico 0,8 0,6 4 LEE 3,5 7,4 World 100 100 India: the first world exporter of computer and information services 8 Source: CEPII, CHELEM-INT data base, July 2007.
Both China and India contribute to the increase in global demand of primary products Major primary goods importer countries Source: CEPII, CHELEM-INT-GDP data bases, July 2007. Share in world imports 1985-2005 evolution in primary goods (%) Change in point of % 1985 2005 USA 12.3 17.3 China +5.7 Japan 15.4 9.5 USA +5.0 Germany 8.0 6.5 India +2.5 China 0.7 6.4 S. Korea +2.3 S. Korea 2.3 4.6 Taiwan +1.3 France 5.9 4.0 Thailand +0.9 Italy 6.4 3.6 Ukraine +0.7 India 0.9 3.4 Netherlands 3.7 3.0 UK 3.8 2.9 Japan -5.9 Spain 3.1 2.9 Italy -2.8 Bel.-Lux. 2.5 2.4 France -1.9 Canada 1.7 2.2 Germany -1.5 Taiwan 0.8 2.0 UK -0.9 Thailand 0.4 1.3 Brazil -0.8 Singapore 1.7 1.3 Netherlands -0.7 Turkey 0.9 1.2 9
III From traditional specialisation to new technology 10
China and India specialisation: traditional industries and new technology sectors Export specialisation: product share in the country's X / product share in world X CHINA 2005 INDIA 2005 Leather products 5.4 Computer & inform. serv. Source: CEPII, CHELEM-INT data base, July 2007. 18.1 Consumer electronics 4.3 Jewellery, works of art 9.9 Clothing 4.2 Iron ores 6.8 Carpets 3.9 Carpets 5.6 Knitwear 3.8 Cement 3.6 Computer equipment 3.8 Clothing 3.3 Miscellaneous manuf. articles 3.8 Cereals 3.2 Domestic electrical appliances 3.7 Communication services Furniture 3.4 Unprocessed minerals nes 3.0 2.9 Metallic structures 1.0 Yarns fabrics 2.6 China in electronic goods India in computer & communication services Common features Related to ICT, with strong international demand; Export oriented sectors; Importance of offshoring (China as a global manufacturing platform) and outsourcing (India as a global centre for IT services); Success based on low labour costs and rapid productivity gains. 11
IV Technological catch-up and quality upgrading 12
Technological level: where do they stand presently? Share of high-tech products in manufactured exports (in % of manufactured goods of the country) 25 20 15 10 5 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Source: CEPII, BACI data base. Dragons Tigers China Japan World India Product composition of high-tech exports, 2004 (in % of high-tech exports) Radio, TV & telecom. equipment Office machinery & computers Medical, precision & optical inst. Chemicals & chemical products Other high-tech Source: CEPII, BACI data base. 61 25 6 4 3 China 10 6 8 67 9 India China strong performance in high-tech exports (electronics) based on dependence on foreign technology Indian HT exports concentrated in pharmacy (strong domestic firms) 13
Technological catch-up: closing the gap will take time As innovation centres, both countries lag far behind advanced economies, according to most indicators (China: 3% of patent applications) Potential for catch-up is large: Huge population/ but shortage of skilled labour R&D spending on the rise Inward FDI in R&D (but mostly in D) Outward investment to acquire technology 14
Price competitiveness China s exports, like Mexico s, are dominated by low-price/quality segments. (Maquilladoras / workshop of the world, standardized products). India is positioned in middle and up market products. Manufacturing exports by price quality range, 2004 (%) 18 10 9 17 73 72 18 18 12 30 29 33 40 27 53 49 48 43 High Medium Low Source: CEPII, BACI data base. Mexico China India Brazil Russia Tigers 15
Convergence? The debate on sustainable growth strategy 16
A debate on the sustainable growth strategy Successes in both countries: rapid growth has reduced poverty, increase the average level of icome enhanced their influence in the world economy. But rising inequality, large unemployment and underemployment. Still an oversupply of labour but an increased shortage of skilled labour. 17
Can India skip the industrialisation phase? Size of working age population, 2000-2050 (millions) India needs a strong manufacturing industry to shift towards a jobintensive growth, supply the domestic market. 80 60 40 20 0 I 1 000 900 800 700 600 500 400 India will continue to benefit from low labour costs when China loses its comparative advantages in labour intensive industries. -20-40 -60 China: changes in population aged 15-60 (left scale) India: change in population aged 15-60 (left scale) China: population aged 15-60 (end of périod) India: population aged 15-60 (end of périod) 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50 Source: UN, 2002. 300 200 100 0 18
Can China succeed to rebalance growth? Final consumption (PPP) of households in Asian economies 2005 (in % of the country GDP) Domestic household consumption: the weak link of China s growth The costs of the extensive, industry-led growth (energy, environment) Pakistan Cambodia Bangladesh Sri Lanka Philippines Indonesia India Thailand Taiwan 46 44 43 42 40 39 36 35 35 33 32 29 26 23 20 Viet Nam All Asian countries Hong Kong Malaysia China Singapore 14 Brunei Darussalam Source: ADB, 2007. 19
20 China and India cannot (yet) by themselves impulse global economic growth