Foreign Policy POL 3: Intro to IR Have we a record of omniscience? If we can t persuade nations with comparable values the merit of our cause, we better reexamine our reasoning. - Robert S. McNamara (2003)
I. The nature of power Hard power: ability to change another s behavior through coercion or payment i.e. carrots and sticks Soft power: ability to attract others because of the legitimacy of a state s values/policies i.e. power through attraction Smart power: combination of coercion and persuasion in an effective way
II. Go it alone? Multilateralism vs. Unilateralism Unilateralism: one-sided action by a state Multilateralism: multiple countries working in concert on a given issue Unipolarity and foreign action As a hegemon, U.S. has more opportunity for unilateralism? Two dimensions of engagement: Interventionist vs. Isolationist Unilateral vs. Multilateral
III. Constraints on foreign policy President has large foreign policy power, but domestic politics constrain policymaking 1) Divided government Congress plays important role Explicit vs. implicit powers 2) Public opinion Poses little constraint upon foreign policy except: Battle deaths High welfare effects (non)partisanship of foreign policy 3) Economic performance Recessionary periods reduce foreign policy options 4) National fatigue Lack of political will to engage (e.g. Grenada 1983)
Combat deaths in Afghanistan (2001-2012)
U.S. presidential approval ratings *taken from WPA Research, 2009
President Obama job approval ratings *taken from Gallup Poll, 2014
Discussion Topic: Public opinion as a guide Debate surrounds the soundness of using public opinion to direct foreign policy. Some in favor, argue that the collective wisdom of the public is beneficial or that the President serves as the agent of voters. Others opposed cite the ignorance of the general public and argue policymaking should be left to professionals. In small groups of 2-3 students answer: Should public opinion guide foreign policy in the United States? And in your discussions, explain why or why not.
IV. Tools of foreign policy Different instruments available: 1) Diplomacy 2) Military force 3) Economic sanctions 4) Inducements
Tools: Diplomacy Definition: influence the behavior of other states through negotiation Two-level game of bargaining Simultaneous international and domestic negotiations Credibility and reciprocity BATNA
Tools: Military force Different uses of force 1) Defensive 2) Deterrence 3) Compellence 4) Swagger Nuclear weapons as deterrence and swagger Deciding to use force Intensity of conflict Domestic politics Sunk costs
A little swagger North Korean military parade
Tools: Economic sanctions Sanctions: using economic pressure as coercive tool Two objectives: 1) Reduce target's ability to inflict harm 2) Change target s behavior Comprehensive vs. Smart Example: OPEC oil embargo on US and Netherlands 1973 Effective of sanctions require: Economic interdependence Power capability of state Willingness to impose pressure Multilateral pressure? Arab oil embargo placed on US in 1973
Tools: Inducements Economic inducements provide benefits for changed behavior Logic Negative sanctions: change behavior or receive threat Inducements: change behavior and receive promise Three types of inducements: 1. Exchange 2. Catalytic 3. Poison
Discussion topic: Why are inducements rarely used? Negative sanctions have been widely applied in foreign policy, while inducements are more rarely applied. In groups of 2-3 discuss why states may not use inducements as often In your discussions think about: Public opinion Effectiveness Proclivity of target state to change its behavior
V. Models of foreign policy decision-making 1) Rational Model policies based upon cost-benefit analysis Critiques: Not possible to list every alternative Assumes perfect information Assumes unitary governments
V. Models of foreign policy decision-making 2) Bureaucratic/Organizational Model policies based on negotiation and compromise among government agencies and SOP Critiques: Discourages innovation Policies can be incoherent Change to organization happens incrementally
V. Models of foreign policy decision-making 3) Pluralist Model policies come from domestic sources Critiques: Gives high weight to domestic groups
VI. Values vs. interests in foreign policy Foreign policy guided by interests Focus upon advancing state power Guided by the current nature of the international system Examples: Richard Nixon, Barack Obama Foreign policy guided by values Focus upon advancing state norms Guided by how the international system should be Examples: Woodrow Wilson, George W. Bush