Attack of the Clones? Eerie Similarities with 4 Despite Volatility www.ekos.com
Methodology Telephone survey of the general public - 138 interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and older Interview period: November 28 to December 1, 5 National results valid within 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of - The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided - It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
General outlook
Direction of Government/country Q: All things considered, would you say that the is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 1 Government of Canada country 8 6 43 55 48 35 1 1 Right direction Wrong direction DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=138
Direction of Government/country by region Q: All things considered, would you say that the is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 1 % right direction Government of Canada country 8 73 6 43 55 46 59 43 56 61 48 46 57 28 6 Overall B.C. Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=138
Tracking direction of Government Q: All things considered, would you say that the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 1 9 8 7 6 5 6 48 51 51 49 49 48 3 3 44 37 41 43 1 99 A- 99 99 O- 99 A- O- 1 A- 1 1 O- 1 2 A- 2 2 O- 2 3 A- 3 3 O- 3 4 A- 4 4 O- 4 5 A- 5 5 O- 5 D- 5 Right direction Wrong direction Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Dec. 1/5 n=138
Tracking direction of country Q: All things considered, would you say that the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 1 9 8 7 6 5 54 6 52 45 54 55 3 38 42 38 35 27 1 F-4 M-4 A-4 M-4 4 4 A-4 S-4 O-4 N-4 D-4 5 F-5 M-5 A-5 M-5 5 5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 D-5 D-5 Right direction Wrong direction Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Dec. 1/5 n=138
The election landscape
Most important issue Q: Which of the following do you think should be the most important issue for the next federal election? 1 8 6 53 14 11 Social issues (health & education) The economy (jobs &growth) Ethics & accoubtabilty Fiscal issues (taxes & debt) Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=138
Tracking most important issue Q: Which of the following do you think should be the most important issue for the next federal election? 6 5 3 1 F-4 M-4 A-4 M-4 4 4 A-4 S-4 O-4 N-4 D-4 5 F-5 M-5 A-5 M-5 5 5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 D-5 Fiscal issues Ethics & accountability Economy Social issues Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Dec. 1/5 n=138
Liberals have slight lead on overall issue advantage Q: Thinking about which federal party do you feel offers the best solutions to address it?* LPC CPC NDP BQ Green None DK/NR social issues (health, education) 23 11 25 9 2 4 26 the economy (jobs & growth) 38 17 8 8 3 4 23 fiscal issues (taxes) 32 28 8 5 2 6 19 ethics and accountability 9 47 12 6 3 4 17 all issues** 25 19 18 8 2 4 23 *each respondent was asked to name the party they felt was best able to address the issue they considered the top priority for the next election **represents collapse of responses for each of the issues Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5, overall n=138
Current vote intention
Federal voting intentions Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 18.4% 34.1% 27.4% Nov. 22-24 38.7% 29.4% 16.9% Election 4 36.7% 29.6% 15.7% 6.% 14.% 1.6% 3.9% 12.4% 4.3% Other.1%.5% 1.4% % 25% 5% 75% 1% Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Dec.1/ 5 n=1148 Undecided/declined: 8.3% Would not vote 3.3%
Federal vote intentions: daily tracking (national) Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 5 45 35 3 25 15 1 5 28-Nov 29-Nov 3-Nov 1-Dec Liberal CPC BQ NDP Green Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); overall as of Dec. 1/5 n=1148
Federal vote intentions: long-term trend Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 6 Election 97 Election 5 Election 4 3 1 D- 96 M- 97 97 S- 97 D- 97 M- 98 98 S- 98 D- 98 M- 99 99 S- 99 D- 99 M- S- D- M- 1 1 S- 1 D- 1 M- 2 2 S- 2 D- 2 M- 3 3 S- 3 D- 3 M- 4 4 S- 4 D- 4 M- 5 5 S- 5 D- 5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Green Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Dec. 1/5 n=1148
Federal vote intentions: trend since last election Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 6 5 3 1 4 4 A-4 S-4 O-4 N-4 D-4 5 F-5 M-5 A-5 M-5 5 5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 D-5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Green Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Dec. 1/5 n=1148
Quebec federal vote intentions: trend since last election Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 8 7 6 5 3 1 4 4 A-4 S-4 O-4 N-4 D-4 5 F-5 M-5 A-5 M-5 5 5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 D- D-5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Base: Quebec decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Dec. 1/5 n=297
Federal voting intentions: regional Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 1 8 6 Overall BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl. Liberal 34 35 21 34 43 21 5 CPC 27 26 54 27 31 11 3 NDP 18 3 15 34 18 9 BQ 14 58 Green Party 6 1 1 4 8 2 1 Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Dec. 1/5 n=1148
Federal voting intentions: gender and age Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 1 8 6 Overall Men Women <25 yrs 25-44 45-64 65+ Liberal 34 34 34 28 31 35 44 CPC 27 28 27 25 25 31 3 NDP 18 17 16 21 18 15 BQ 14 15 13 19 17 11 8 Green Party 6 6 6 12 6 4 3 Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Dec. 1/5 n=1148
Federal voting intentions: education and income Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 1 8 6 Overall Hschool Coll Univ <$K -39K -59K 6-79K 8-99K 1K+ Liberal 34 35 27 35 27 33 31 32 CPC 27 28 3 25 26 27 28 3 32 NDP 18 17 19 19 24 17 21 22 17 BQ 14 17 16 1 18 18 16 15 12 9 Green Party 6 4 8 6 9 6 7 6 4 2 Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Dec. 1/5 n=1148
Voter retention Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Current Federal Vote Intention LPC VOTE CAST IN 4 CPC NDP BQ GP Liberal Party of Canada 66 9 2 8 Conservative Party of Canada 15 81 5 1 NDP 12 7 74 4 16 Bloc Québécois 5.3 2 93 9 Green Party 3 2.8 1 67 Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Dec.1/5 n=1148
Likely winner Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win? 1 8 64 6 18 4 2 13 Liberal CPC NDP BQ DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Dec.1/5 n=138
Tracking likely winner Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win? 8 7 6 63 64 5 5 3 37 28 18 1 A-5 M-5 5 5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 D-5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=138
Slight preference for another Liberal minority Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, if you had to choose between a Liberal minority and a Conservative minority government, which would you prefer? 1 8 6 49 42 9 Liberal minority Conservative minority DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=138
Positioning of the Political Parties
CPC most unpalatable to voters; LPC a close second Q: Thinking about the main parties running in the coming election, is there any political party that you would definitely not vote for? 1 8 6 32 29 24 14 3 CPC Liberal NDP BQ Would not vote for any DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=114; BQ only in Quebec
Opposition to parties by region Q: Thinking about the main parties running in the coming election, is there any political party that you would definitely not vote for? Will not vote for the LPC Will not vote for the CPC 1 8 6 29 32 27 37 45 23 24 44 36 27 29 27 23 32 Overall B.C. Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Base: All Canadians; Dec. 5 n=114
Sponsorship main reason voters won t support the Liberals Q: What is the main reason you would not vote for the Liberal Party of Canada? Corruption (i.e. sponsorship) 64 Disagree with presumed party platform 17 Tired of LPC/want a change 11 Other 3 DK/NR 5 1 3 5 6 7 Base: Those who say they would definitely not vote for the Liberals; Dec. 1/5 n=316
Party platform main reason voters won t support the CPC Q: What is the main reason you would not vote for the Conservative Party of Canada? Disagree with presumed party platform 54 Do not trust Stephen Harper 27 Lack trust in party 11 Other 1 DK/NR 7 1 3 5 6 7 Base: Those who say they would definitely not vote for the Conservatives; Dec. 1/5 n=355
Party platform main reason voters won t support the NDP Q: What is the main reason you would not vote for the New Democratic Party? Disagree with presumed party platform 47 Lack fiscal responsibility 15 Do not trust Jack Layton 14 Unfamiliar with party (e.g., platform ideas) 9 Have never won in the past 8 Other 2 DK/NR 5 1 3 5 6 7 Base: Those who say they would definitely not vote for the NDP; Dec. 1/5 n=278
Fit to govern Q: I think the is not fit to govern Canada. 1 Agree (5-7) Neither (4) Disagree (1-3) 8 42 38 6 16 21 39 Liberal Party Conservative Party Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=138
Time for a new ruling party in Ottawa Q: After so many years of Liberal government, I really think the country needs a new ruling party in Ottawa. 1 May 4 Dec. 5 8 6 59 62 25 26 14 11 Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5 n=138
Even 1 in 4 Liberal voters think it s time for a new government Q: After so many years of Liberal government, I really think the country needs a new ruling party in Ottawa. 1 % agree 9 8 73 77 8 62 6 51 27 Overall Intend to Intend to Intend to Intend to Intend to Undecided vote LPC vote CPC vote NDP vote BQ vote Green Base: All Canadians; Dec. 1/5
Views of the Leaders
Vision for the future Q: Which of the following leaders is doing the best job of articulating a positive vision for the future? 5 Election campaign 4 (May) Current 3 33 31 1 19 19 19 14 18 11 11 1 8 8 Paul Martin Stephen Harper Jack Layton Gilles Duceppe No current leader DK/NR Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Dec. 5 n=138
Best vision by region Q: Which of the following leaders is doing the best job of articulating a positive vision for the future? Paul Martin Stephen Harper Jack Layton Gilles Duceppe 5 36 36 39 36 3 1 3 18 25 13 18 24 22 23 9 21 14 13 B.C. Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Base: All Canadians; Dec. 5 overall n=138
Trust in leaders Q: Which of the following leaders could you trust to actually do what they are promising to do if elected? Election campaign 4 (May) Current 5 3 1 23 22 13 18 17 17 8 12 26 21 13 9 Paul Martin Jack Layton Stephen Harper Gilles Duceppe No current leader DK/NR Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Dec. 5 n=138
Trust in leaders by region Q: Which of the following leaders is doing the best job of articulating a positive vision for the future? Paul Martin Stephen Harper Jack Layton Gilles Duceppe 5 43 36 38 3 22 13 22 11 19 24 16 25 26 19 16 11 12 11 18 1 B.C. Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Base: All Canadians; Dec. 5 n=138
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