As @ April 7, 2000 BRITAIN VOTES 2001 PROPOSED CONTENTS GENERAL THEMES The Impact of the Campaign The first theme of the book concerns the classic issue: did the campaign matter? At the most general level, campaigns can be understood as organized efforts to inform, persuade, and mobilize. Using a simple systems model, campaigns include three distinct elements: the goals and objectives that the campaign organization is seeking to achieve, the communication techniques and strategies employed by these organizations, and the impact of these activities on their targeted audience (see Figure 1). Campaigns occur within a broader social and political environment, including the media and political systems. Effective campaigns also include a dynamic feedback loop as campaign organizations learn about their targeted audience and adapt their goals and objectives accordingly. Figure 1: Systems Model of Campaigns Campaign Organization: Party goals and Objectives Campaign Communication Processes Direct and Mediated Messages Campaign Impact: Information Persuasion Mobilization -- Social and Political Environment -- In the context of the next general election we are focusing on the period of the long campaign (approximately the twelve months prior to polling day) and the short official campaign. At a general level, the primary impact of election campaigns may be on cognitive information, if party messages raise awareness about issues like spending on the health service or the problems of European enlargement, or the news media increase public knowledge about where the parties stand on the major issues of the day. Or the impact may be persuasion if the campaign reinforces or changes public attitudes, such as increasing support for one of the major parties, agenda-setting and priming issues, or framing the popular image of party leaders. Or alternatively the campaign may effect mass mobilization, such as encouraging political discussion, party activism, and electoral turnout. Understood in this way, Part I of this book is about analyzing the strategic aims and objective of the major parties, how these messages are communicated through direct and indirect routes, and the impact of these activities upon the public s information, persuasion, and mobilization. Chapters in this section address a series of specific questions. First, what were the main objectives of each of the major parties? What were their primary policy themes, targeted audiences, and campaign strategies? How did they try to use direct and indirect means to communicate their messages, including their manifestoes, press releases, campaign posters and leaflets, party political 1
broadcasts, and leadership speeches? How did they use polls, focus groups, and other feedback mechanisms to design and monitor their messages? How did they prioritize campaign spending and organizational resources? Second, how were these party messages communicated via the traditional news media and new online web sites? How successful were the parties in shaping the news-agenda and framing the headlines? How did parties use the Internet to campaign? Lastly, did these activities achieve their desired objectives? Little systematic evidence will be available immediately after the election to examine the impact of these activities, but we can certainly reflect on whether the party campaign and news coverage influenced the public, and in ways beyond simply voting choice. Patterns of Long-Tern Labour Support The second major theme for the book relates to our overall interpretation of the results, and in particular why did the Blair government manage to maintain such substantial long-term support, well above average in the historical records? A graph of all the monthly opinion polls published since the last election (Fig. 2) shows that the Labour government enjoyed an initial honeymoon effect, at around 60% support in the aftermath of their landslide victory. This lead did subside between autumn 17 and spring 18, mainly to the benefit of the Conservatives. Since then, Labour has maintained a comfortable lead over all other parties and the Conservative party has clearly failed to stage any effective recovery. The LibDems have fluctuated within their usual band of support. There is no evidence in these indicators of the usual mid-term blues. Fig. 2. Party Voting Intentions 17-2000 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 Con Lab LibDem 10 0 Ju n- 97 Au g- 97 Oc t- 97 De c- 97 Fe b- Ap r- Ju n- Au g- Oc t- De c- Fe b- Ap r- Ju n- Au g- Oc t- De c- Fe b- 00 Source: All monthly polls Moreover the size of government s lead over the main opposition party in the first three years is not just substantial, it is greater than that enjoyed any previous administration in the postwar era (see Fig.3). The contrast with the previous Major government is dramatic. 2
Government Lead in Monthly Gallup Polls 1945-2000 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 C'55 Gov L'45 L'50C'51 C'59 L'64 L'66 C'70 L'74 C'79 C'83 C'87 C'92 L'97 F-2000 Party Popularity What explains this lead? Clearly a number of explanations, not necessarily clearly mutually exclusive, could be considered in the book. One is a peace and prosperity scenario, derived from theories of retrospective economic voting, if public credits the Labour government with Britain s good times in the new economy. Alternatively, rather than the positive attractions of the government, it could be that the Conservative party has not managed to claw back from its nadir by abandoning its past legacy, in terms of continuing leadership divisions over Europe, lack of fresh policies ideas, and financial disarray. It may take successive elections for the Conservatives to recover, like the one more heave interpretation of Labour party modernization during the late 10s and early 10s. Lastly, as discussed in detail in our book on Critical Elections, realignment theories suggest that Labour s position in the center ground of party politics, flanked by the Conservatives to the right and the Liberal Democrats to the left, may have caused a critical shift in British party competition. Critical Elections suggested that there was little systematic evidence that realignment has occurred at the level of the electorate (as opposed to Westminster) at the time of the last election, but it is possible that Labour has subsequently consolidated its hold. This book clearly cannot answer these large questions in any definitive fashion but we can raise these issues in the introduction and conclusion of chapters. Our interpretations can help to shape some of the larger debates about understanding the outcome, results and meaning of the next general election. SPECIFIC CHAPTER GUIDELINES Pippa Norris Introduction: Labour Hegemony or Conservative Recovery? The aims and themes of this volume. Alternative interpretations of the election campaign and results. The key features of the party and media campaigns. The analysis of the results. The change in the share of votes and seats 17-2001. The pattern of party popularity in monthly opinion polls 17-3
2001, compared with previous Labour governments. The dynamics of change in party support during the official election campaign. Regional and constituency swings. The social base of the vote. The minor parties. The results for the new Parliament. The electoral system. The contents of this volume. Conclusions. Pat Seyd The Labour Campaign PART I: THE PARTY AND MEDIA CAMPAIGNS Developments 17 to 2001. The record of the Labour government: manifesto promises and policy performance: the economy (but see Sanders), constitutional reform, social policy, foreign policy/europe. Major achievements and failures. Significant changes in Labour party organization, including in structure, leadership and staff, membership, and finances (but see Fisher on latter). Relationship with the Liberal Democrats. The Labour mid-term record in the Scottish, Welsh, European, by-elections, and local elections. Has Labour become a 'catch-all' cartel party? Has the Blair government carved out a Third Way? The official campaign. Labour's strategic aims and objectives: targeting what voters? What regions and constituencies? What issues? What candidates? Major changes in Labour party policies through comparison of the 17 and 2001 manifestoes (table?). Analysis of campaign communications through press conferences, party political broadcasts, major rallies, and leadership speeches. The organization and key personnel in the Labour campaign. Evaluation of the outcome: did Labour achieve its objectives? What next? Anthony Seldon The Conservative Campaign Developments 17 to 2001. The debacle of 17. The Conservative party in opposition: major changes in the party leadership; the structure, staffing and organization at Central Office; constituency parties and continued erosion (?) of grassroots membership; and financial problems (but see Fisher on latter). Party factionalism and internal tensions over Europe. The Conservative midterm record in the Scottish, Welsh, European, by-elections and local elections. Major changes in Conservative party policies and ideology: comparison of the 17 and 2001 manifestos (table?). The official campaign. Conservative aims and objectives: targeting what voters? What regions/constituencies? What issues? What candidates? Campaign communications through press conferences, party political broadcasts, major rallies, and leadership speeches. Evaluation of the outcome: did the Conservatives achieve their objectives? What next? David Denver The Liberal Democrat Campaign Developments 17 to 2001. The battle for the centre ground: changes in party policies, organization, membership, and finances. The fruits of cooperation with the Labour government. The Liberal Democrat mid-term record in the Scottish, Welsh, European, by-elections and local elections. The official campaign. Liberal Democrat aims and objectives: targeting what voters? What regions/constituencies? What issues? What candidates? Campaign communications through press conferences, party political broadcasts, major rallies, and leadership speeches. Evaluation of the outcome: did the Liberal Democrats achieve their objectives? What next? 4
Ivor Crewe Opinion Polls Developments 17 to 2001. Significant changes in polling techniques compared with 17, including in companies, sampling, fieldwork, and technology. The development of online polls and the use of Internet archives by companies and news organizations to present the complete results of opinion polls. Trends 17-2001 in monthly opinion polls, including in voting intentions (but see introduction), the performance of the party leaders, approval of the government's record, and party images. The official campaign. The gamut of political marketing techniques used by newspapers, television, the Internet, and parties, including the deployment of cross-sectional surveys, panel surveys, 'rolling polls', polls of marginals, exit polls, focus groups, and 'deliberative' polls. A key reference table summarizing the results in all national polls during the official campaign. Has there been increased media reporting of the 'horse-race' and less coverage of 'issue' polls? The dynamics of the vote during the campaign. Evaluation of the outcome: the accuracy and record of the final polls. Confidence restored? TBA: Television and Newspapers Developments in the context of news 17-2001: Commercial pressures at ITN and the abandonment of News@10. Changes in public service broadcasting and news and current affairs at the BBC. The growing fragmentation of the audience and the proliferation of alternative channels via satellite, cable, digital and broadband. Major changes in newspapers including the growth in soft news (?), negative news (?) and less partisanship(?). The official campaign: what was covered in the major TV news programs during the campaign (compare the BBC, ITV, Sky?) How much attention was devoted to policy issues versus the horse race? What major issues were reported in the bulletins and in the 'headlines'? How much coverage did each party receive? What were the major contrasts in coverage between television and newspapers? Has there been a trend since 17 towards more negative coverage, more 'personalized' coverage, and less serious news? How did the papers position themselves in the campaign? Evaluation of the outcome: Did British television maintain the standards of public service broadcasting? Did British newspapers become more tabloid? Stephen Coleman The Online Campaign Developments 17 to 2001: The rise in the number of Internet users and hosts in Britain. A comparison of the structure, contents and functions of major party web sites. The use of the Internet by the news media (major newspapers, BBC News, ITV) and specialist electoral web sites (Yahoo! Etc.). The official campaign: The use of the Internet and Intranets by parties during the campaign, email campaigning, and online advertising; the legal issues regarding electoral material on the Net; any constituency based campaigning of note; and new media election coverage such as BBC Online. Evaluation of the outcome: Was the 2001 election the first real online campaign? Did the Internet make a substantial difference to the results? 5
Justin Fisher: Campaign Spending Developments 17 to 2001: Problems of party funding and estimates of previous levels of campaign expenditure by the major parties. The Neill report and changes in the legislative framework for party funding. What were the aims of the new recommendations, how were they designed to work, and how were they implemented? The official campaign: The main sources of party funding. Major categories of expenditure and changes in this regard compared with 17. Evaluation of the outcome: What difference did the new regulations make? Alice Brown Scotland Part II: THE ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS Developments 17 to 2001: the politics of devolution and the record of the new Scottish parliament. Tensions within the Labour party due to devolution. The problems facing the Conservatives in Scotland. The Scottish National Party leadership, organisation, membership, finances, and policies. Trends in Scottish public opinion towards devolution/independence and party support in Scottish opinion polls, by-elections, European and local elections. The official campaign. Party competition north of the border: who targeted what voters? What constituencies? What issues? What candidates? Campaign communications in Scotland through press conferences, party political broadcasts, major rallies and leadership speeches. Coverage in the Scottish news media. Evaluation of the outcome: Who won? What s next for Scotland? Richard Wyn Jones and Dafydd Trystan Wales: The Red Dragon and the Red Flag Developments 17 to 2001: The politics of devolution and the record of the new Welsh Assembly. Tensions within the Labour party due to devolution. The problems facing the Conservatives in Wales. Plaid Cymru s leadership, organization, membership, finances, and policies. Trends in Welsh public opinion towards devolution/independence and party support in Welsh opinion polls, byelections, European and local elections. The official campaign. Party competition in Wales: who targeted what voters? What constituencies? What issues? What candidates? Campaign communications in Wales through press conferences, party political broadcasts, major rallies and leadership speeches. Coverage in the Welsh news media. Evaluation of the outcome: Who won? What s next for Wales? TBA Northern Ireland Developments 17 to 2001: the politics of the peace process and the constitutional settlement in Northern Ireland. Party politics in Northern Ireland, including changes in leadership, organization, and party policies towards the peace initiative. 6
The official campaign. Party competition in Northern Ireland: who targeted what voters? What constituencies? What issues? What candidates? Campaign communications through press conferences, party political broadcasts, major rallies and leadership speeches. Media coverage in Northern Ireland. Evaluation of the outcome: Who won the election? What s next for the peace process? Paul Whiteley Turnout and Participation Post-war Developments: The definition and measurement of electoral turnout. Has there been a secular decline and what are the major trends in UK turnout 1945-2001 in general elections, local elections, and by-elections? How does this compare with other postindustrial societies (IDEA data)? Other indicators of political participation? Summarize and sketch out the major explanations for low turnout (institutional factors like registration, motivational and resource factors, political factors like the closeness and salience of the race, marginality of the seat, etc). The implementation of any major government initiatives to overcome problems of turnout. The official campaign: organizational efforts by parties, at national and constituency level, to mobilize the vote in 2001. Any major innovations in targeting and mobilization? Evaluation of the outcome: Turnout in the 2001 election based on aggregate data from constituencies to analyze variations by region, urban/rural seats, ethnic minority seats, marginality of constituencies, party competition, and intervening by-elections. If available, analysis of turnout by key social groups in the electorate (exit poll data?). The implications for further policy initiatives? Shamit Saggar Racial Politics Developments 17 to 2001: Demographic changes and the distribution of the ethnic minority electorate. Policy issues and debates under the Labour government. The official campaign: party strategies in targeting minority voters. Party policies on issues of immigration and race. The adoption of ethnic minority candidates. Evaluation of the outcome: polling evidence of ethnic minority voting patterns; the results for ethnic minority candidates; and reflections on the implications of the outcome for British politics. Joni Lovenduski Gender Politics Developments 17 to 2001: Changes in the selection process in the major parties esp. Labour's policy shifts away from all women shortlists. New initiatives in the Conservative party? The adoption of women candidates in all parties (how many? in what type of seats? in what regions?). The official campaign: Party strategies in targeting women voters: What women? What issues? What images? What strategies? Comparing manifesto policies on gender issues. Evaluation of the outcome: polling evidence of the gender gap in voting patterns; the results for women candidates; reflections on the implications of the outcome for the future of British gender politics. 7
David Sanders The Economy and Voting Developments 17 to 2001. The government's record in handling the major issues in the economy. Trends in unemployment and inflation, real personal disposable income, average earnings, the stock market, levels of taxation, manufacturing and service output, interest rates, the housing market. The 'feel-good' factor: business and consumer confidence. Much of this data could be summarized with a few non-technical tables with quarterly data from Economic Trends. The official campaign: A comparison of manifesto policies on the major economic issues including taxation and government spending. A good chart, with issues down the columns and the policies of the major parties across the rows, would clarify the contrasts. The salience of these issues, and the party lead, in campaign opinion polls. The influence of economic evaluations on the vote (if available from the exit polls). Evaluation of the outcome: a never-had-it-so-good election? John Curtice The Electoral System Developments 17 to 2001: The main changes to the electoral system since 17, including in Scotland and Wales, Northern Ireland, the European elections, local and London Mayoral elections. Continued debate about proposed reforms for the Commons and Lords. A simple reference table could summarize the major features down the rows (e.g. number of seats, type of voting system, etc.) with each system running across the columns. How electoral reform relates to a broader government programme of constitutional reform (the Bill of Rights, second chamber, devolution, etc). Other reforms to the electoral system in terms of registration and electoral administration (but see Whiteley). The official campaign: How important was the issue of constitutional and electoral reform for voters and for party competition (the Lib-Lab alliance) in the campaign? Evaluation of the Outcome: How did the electoral system translate votes into seats? The national result could be disaggregated at regional and local level to show the disproportionality of the British voting system. The consequences of the electoral system for the government, the opposition, the minor parties, and for social representation. How would the result have been different under alternative electoral systems? What are the prospects for reform of Westminster elections under the next government? Philip Cowley The New Parliament Developments 17 to 2001: The social and political composition of the old parliament broken down by party. Patterns of legislative activities and backbench rebellions. Any major changes in the parliamentary workload and functions. Legislative turnover via by-elections and retirements. The official campaign: Coverage of particularly controversial parliamentary candidates, if important (e.g. any cases of sleaze, local disputes over re-selection, etc.) The analysis of the outcome: The social and political composition of the new parliament. Who are the new members? Profile comparing those who left, re-elected incumbents, and new members by party, region, age, occupational background, gender (but see Lovenduski), race (but see Saggar), and political leanings (?). The consequences for each party and for the future direct of parliamentary politics. 8