Lunch Discussion, Solidar, Brussels, November 16, 2016 Early job insecurity in Europe The impact of the economic crisis This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649395 Maria Symeonaki Panteion University, Athens, Greece
Outline of the presentation 1 Early job insecurity: Definition 2 Early job insecurity: Measurement 3 Impact of the crisis on school-to-work transition 4 Impact of the crisis on early job insecurity 5 Case Study: Greece 2
Early job insecurity: Definition Early job insecurity as an objective phenomenon The probability of being unemployed or inactive The probability of finding or keeping a job Number of part-time contracts Labour mobility, etc 3
INDICATORS CONCERNING LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES Youth Participation Rate Youth Employment Rate Youth Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment Ratio Incidence of long-term unemployment NEET rates INDICATORS CONCERNING RELATIVE CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT RATES Youth to total Unemployment Ratio Relative UR low skills/high skills INDICATORS CONCERNING JOB QUALITY Temporary Employment Part-time Employment Underemployed part-time workers Work load INDICATORS CONCERNING EMPLOYMENT (IN)SECURITY Job Finding Rate Job Separation Rate INDICATORS CONCERNING TRANSITIONS FROM SCHOOL School-to-Employment Probability School-to-Unemployment Probability School-to-Inactivity Probability 4
Modeling labour market transitions 1: Employment P O1 P 11 1 1 1 2 1 3 P O2 U Ε P 21 P 12 P 31 P 13 P 32 I P O3 2: Unemployment 2 1 2 2 2 3 P 23 P 22 P 33 3: Inactivity 3 1 3 2 3 3 5
0,900 Employment probabilities for new school leavers SWITZERLAND 0.760 0.784 0,675 0,450 0.364 0,225 0.194 GREECE 0,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6
0,800 Employment probabilities for new school leavers AUSTRIA 0.727 0.642 0,600 0.684 0.471 0,400 0.364 ITALY 0,200 SPAIN 0.274 0.224 0.194 GREECE 0,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 7
Unemployment probabilities for new school leavers 0,8 0,7 CROATIA 0.695 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0.079 0,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SWITZERLAND 8
Unemployment probabilities for new school leavers CROATIA 0,700 0.525 0.463 0.359 ITALY GREECE 0.695 0.637 0.513 0.131 0.157 0,0 AUSTRIA 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9
Early Job Insecurity Map DUBLIN REYKJAVIK ICELAND IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM LONDON PORTUGAL LISBON SPAIN MADRID FRANCE PARIS ROME ITALY BELGIUM LUXEMBOURG BRUSSELS NETHERLANDS AMSTERDAM GERMANY BERLIN DENMARK COPENHAGEN NORWAY OSLO SWEDEN STOCKHOLM FINLAND HELSINKI ESTONIA TALLINN RUSSIA MOSCOW RIGA LATVIA VILNIUS LITHUANIA RUSSIA POLAND WARSAW BELARUS MINSK UKRAINE KIEV MOLDOVA CHISINAU BUCHAREST ROMANIA SWITZERLAND BERN AUSTRIA VIENNA SLOVAKIA BRATISLAVA CZECH REP PRAGUE HUNGARY BUDAPEST ANKARA TURKEY CYPRUS NICOSIA BULGARIA SOFIA ATHENS GREECE ALBANIA TIRANA MONTERO PODGORICA BOSNIA HERZ. SARAJEVO CROATIA ZAGREB SERBIA BELGRADE SLOVENIA LJUBLJANA MACEDONIA SKOPJE KOSOVO PRISTINA YEREVAN GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN BAKU ARMENIA TBILISI ANDORA ANDORRA LA VELLA VATICAN CITY LIECHTENSTEIN VADUZ MONACO SAN MARINO HIGH CONSIDERABLE MODERATE LOW
The impact of the crisis on youth unemployment rates 50,00 37,50 25,00 12,50 0,00 NL NO DK IS AT CY CZ SI DE MT EE BG IE LT LV UK FI PT PL LU BE FR RO SK HU SE IT EL HR ES 2008 11
The impact of the crisis on youth unemployment rates 50,00 37,50 25,00 12,50 0,00 DE IS NO AT DK NL MT CZ EE UK LT LV SI HU LU SE PL IE BG RO BE FI FR SK PT CY IT HR ES EL 2015 12
The impact of the crisis on youth NEET rates 22,00 16,50 11,00 5,50 0,00 NL NO DK IS LU SI CZ AT FI SE MT DE EE LT PL CY BE PT FR SK EL HU HR RO LV UK ES IE 2008 IT BG 13
The impact of the crisis on youth NEET rates 22,00 16,50 11,00 5,50 0,00 NO DE SE CZ AT IS LT SI MT LV LU FI DK EE PL UK NL PT HU FR BE SK IE CY ES EL RO HR BG IT 2015 14
The impact of the crisis on involuntary part-time employment 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 0,00 SI NL CZ DK IS NO PL AT IE FI DE MT HR ES HU BE CY SE PT FR EL IT RO SK UK 2008 15
The impact of the crisis on involuntary part-time employment 90,00 67,50 45,00 22,50 0,00 SI IS DK NL DE CZ AT MT BE HR UK FI PL SK IE SE HU PT ES FR EL CY RO IT 2015 16
The impact of the crisis on youth long-term unemployment rates 30,00 22,50 15,00 7,50 0,00 NO FI DK AT NL SE DE LU MT BE UK EE CZ FR SI LT CY PL LV HU RO PT BG IE IT ES SK HR EL 2008 17
The impact of the crisis on youth long-term unemployment rates 30,00 22,50 15,00 7,50 0,00 DK NO SE DE FI AT NL EE UK MT CZ LV HU SI PL FR IE BE CY RO PT BG SK ES HR IT EL 2015 18
The percentage change in mean income 2008 and 2015 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00-10,00-20,00-30,00-40,00 NO SK EE SE LT CZ PL MT BE FI AT DK DE FR HU UK SI NL LU IT LV CY RO PT ES IE IS EL 19
45.2 M YOUTH UR 55.0 F YOUTH UR Greece 50.6% INCOME 2008 11,444 2015 7,472 Youth Unemployment Rate, 2016 2008 2015 ER 2008 21.7% 2015 12.4% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 45.886 15.178 10.000 30.000 50.000 Job Creation 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 1 Low Education 2 Medium Education 3 High Education Brain Drain 2008 2015 NEETS 2008 11,4% 2015 17,2% 2008 2015
Consequences of Early Job Insecurity Systematic labour market and social exclusion The threat of a lost generation High risks of poverty, precarity Disaffection, scarring Higher propensity towards offence and crime (mental and physical) Health problems, etc 21
Thank you This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649395 Maria Symeonaki Panteion University, Athens, Greece 22