Measuring Trade in Services in Mode 4 andreas.maurer@wto.org joscelyn.magdeleine@wto.org 1
Measuring Trade in Services in Mode 4: Key findings Labour mobility different from mode 4 Remittances and compensation of employees inappropriate measures of mode 4 trade flows Value of mode 4 trade included in balance of payments services transactions (BPM6) + the number of persons moving is of interest (tourism and migration statistics) 2
Examples In what modes are the following services supplied? Architect from A designs a construction project and delivers it to its client in B through the Internet, but makes occasional visits to B at the implementation phase A computer specialist from C employed by a computer services company of B and sent to work in a branch located in B An airline company from A has its plane repaired while stationed in country B. The crew stays in a hotel in B while the plane is being repaired. A cook from A opening his own restaurant in country B 3
Examples In what modes are the following services supplied? Temporary presence of independent professional accountant to provide accounting services in country B Establishment of a branch in B of an insurance company from country A Services consumed by a business traveller of A while travelling abroad Provision of medical advice by an expert team in country A to physicians carrying out by-pass surgery in country B A dentist from B offers treatment in a practice he owns in A 4
NEW chapter An example: Tourism sector Negotiating list GNS/W/120: Hotels and restaurants Travel agencies and tour operator serv. Tourist guide services Other services Affiliates of hotel chains (mode 3) Sales of tourism operators (mode 1) Mode 2 BOP Travel but 4 modes of supplying services Foreign tourist guides (mode 4) Foreign managers/ intra-corporate transferees (mode 4) 5
Movement of persons Employment opportunities Income prospects Improved technology Where to draw the boundary? employment Contract services Labour mobility Coverage Trade in services 6
Terminology / Boundary Labour mobility (employment contract) Relocation of workers to improve allocation of resources with impact on income distribution, e.g. Recruitment of nonresidents by resident company Intra-corporate transfer, etc. Trade in services (service contract) Contractual service suppliers employees of foreign service providers self-employed Intra-corporate transfer Sales persons 7
Mode 4 Transactions relating to employment or service contracts? Employer-employee compensation of employees relationship If not then BOP services categories who controls? which benefits for the person? who pays social contributions? 8
Remittances, compensation of employees: not measures of mode 4 Value: Labour mobility Compensation of employees Trade in services (incl. mode 4) Workers remittances Services categories BPM6: Personal transfers SNA, BPM, MSITS Number of persons: Non-migrants International migrants, of which short-term Visitors RSIM Rev.1, IRTS 2008 9
The four modes of supply: statistical simplified criteria Consumer or property located Outside territory of residence Mode 2 (BOP services, tourism statistics) Within territory of residence Supplier has presence within consumer s territory Supply Commercial Mode 3 through: presence (FATS, FDI) has no presence in consumer s territory Presence of natural persons Mode 1 (BOP services) Mode 4 (BOP services, migration, tourism statistics) 10
MODES Member A The 4 th Mode of Supply Member B Supply of a service by a service supplier of a Member, through presence of natural persons of a Member in the territory of any other Member Service supplier Service consumer 11
Relevant framework The Presence/Movement of Natural Persons in GATS GATS main text: mode 4 presence of natural persons GATS Annex movement of natural persons Description of Mode 4 in main text and annex Purpose of stay Fulfilling directly a service contract, whether as a service supplier (self-employed) or as an employee Indirectly: Presence instrumental to supply of service: through commercial presence or supply at a later stage Duration of stay Temporary: Measures regarding citizenship, migration, residence and permanent employment are not covered 12
Who is covered by Mode 4? Contractual service suppliers Self-employed (independent) service suppliers Employees of foreign service suppliers Intra-corporate transferees and persons directly recruited by the foreign affiliate Services sellers / Persons responsible for setting up commercial presence Areas of uncertainty difference between employment and service contract what does constitute a service? many commitments currently focus on highly-skilled workers 13
Mode 4 and Current Commitments Mode 4 Supply of services All skill levels Intra-corporate transferees Contractual serv. suppliers Services sellers/ setting up commercial presence Commitments Mainly horizontal commitments Mostly high-level Intra-corporate transferees (~70%) Contractual serv. suppliers (~10%) Services sellers/ setting up commercial presence (~20%) Temporary movement 3-5 years: Intra-corp. transferees < 1 year: Contractual serv. suppliers < 3 months: Service sellers etc. 14
MODE 4 Mode 4 Information needs Value of trade: Balance of Payments services trade Contractual service suppliers as employees of service supplier sent abroad to fulfill a contract between his employer and consumer Self-employed going abroad to fulfill service contract (independent professionals) Number of persons (flows and stocks): Tourism and Migration statistics Contractual service suppliers as employees Self-employed Intra-corporate transferees, employees of foreign affiliates Service sellers / persons responsible for setting up commercial presence 15
Mode 4 and Temporary GATS does not define temporary In WTO Members schedules of commitments Varies between about 3 months (service sellers) and 2 to 5 years (intra-corporate transferees) In international statistical standards (BPM5, SNA, migration, tourism) One-year rule distinction between residents/non-residents Statistics on residents also include Mode 4 service suppliers + in GATS: nationality 16
Int l. Supply of Services to United States a breakdown by modes Mode 2 10% 67% 23% Mode 3 Mode 1 + 4 Source: Author's calculations based on "U.S. International Services: Cross-Border Trade in 2008 and Services Supplied Through Affiliates in 2007" Survey of Current Business, BEA, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2009. 17
Statistics?? What s the problem with measuring the value of GATS Modes of Supply?? Intermodal linkages Services may be delivered through several modes of supply Mode 4 Mode 1 Mode 2 Mode 3 A single service transaction through different modes 18
Simplified allocation of FATS and EBOPS data to modes of supply (1/2) FATS (sales or output) * Balance of payments trade in services Mode Mode(s) 3 1 2 4 1 and 4 2 and 4 3 and 4 Manufactacturing serv. on inputs owned by others X X Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. X X Transport X X Passenger X X Freight X X Post and courier services X X Other X Serv. to domestic carriers in foreign ports (and vice-versa) X X Other X X Travel X Goods Local transport services X Accommodation services X Food-serving services X Other services X Construction X X Goods Services X X Insurance and pension services X X Financial services X X Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. ** X X * In territory where affiliate established. If not possible to breakdown by EBOPS 2010 product, by activity using ICFA Rev.1 ** Certain degree of uncertainty regarding certain charges 19
Simplified allocation of FATS and EBOPS data to modes of supply (2/2) FATS (sales or output) Balance of payments trade in services Mode Mode(s) 3 1 2 4 1 and 4 2 and 4 3 and 4 Telecom., computer, and information services X X Telecommunications services X X Computer services X X Information services X X Other business services X X Research and development services X X Professional and management consulting services X X Technical, trade-related and other business services X Architectural, engineering, scientific, other technical serv. X X Waste treatment -depollution, agri. and mining services X o Waste treatment and de-pollution X X o Services incidental to agriculture, forestry and fishing X X o Serv. incidental to mining, and oil and gas extraction X X Operational leasing services X X Trade-related services X X Other business services, n.i.e. X X Personal, cultural and recreational services X X Government goods and services n.i.e. Government goods n.i.e., Credits and debits Government services n.i.e., Credits Government services n.i.e., Debits Commercial services purchased in host economies o Government units in diplomatic and similar enclaves X o Personnel from home economy and dependants X Other commercial serv. n.i.e purchased by government X Non-commercial services acquired by government Distribution (wholesale, retail trade) services X X CHALLENGE 20
Int l. Supply of Services to United States breakdown by modes Mode 2 10.2% Mode 1 16.8% 5.8% Mode 3 66.7% Mode 4 0.5% Mode 1 + 4 5.7% Mode 3+4 0.1% Source: Author's calculations based on "U.S. International Services: Cross-Border Trade in 2008 and Services Supplied Through Affiliates in 2007" Survey of Current Business, BEA, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2009. 21
Options to assess Mode 4 delivery in surveys 1.Did the service delivery involve physical presence of service provider? Yes? Then, how was most of the service value provided (time/resources)? Mostly by fax, email, etc. Natural person at the end (e.g. to supervise) Mode 1 The person s knowledge was essential to deliver the service Mode 4 2. Require in services surveys allocation by each GATS mode of supply 3. Require estimated share of services inputs for Mode 4 services trade 22
Indian International Supply of Computer Services, IT Enabled Services and BPO by Mode, 2008-09 Size of transactions Amount (million USD) Per cent Share in Total (million USD) Mode 1 Mode 2 Mode 3 Mode 4 Total Mode 1 Mode 2 Mode 3 Mode 4 < 0.2 37 0 6 1 44 83.2 0.0 13.9 3.0 0.2-2.2 447 5 43 18 513 87.1 0.9 8.4 3.6 2-22 1930 0 225 111 2266 85.2 0.0 9.9 4.9 > 22 22194 28 7051 11592 40865 54.3 0.1 17.3 28.4 11723 28.4 26.8 Total 24607 32 7326 11723 43688 56.3 0.1 16.8 26.8 Source: Reserve Bank of India (2010), converted to US dollars by authors. 23
Australia's legal services export income by mode of supply, 2006-07 (million USD and percentage) Commercial presence $116m, 27% Australian projects $215m, 51% Fly in-fly out $93m, 22% Source: ILSAC Survey of Australian Export Market for Legal Services 2006-07 24
Mode 4, migration, tourism statistics (1/2) RSIM Rev.1 categories Purpose of trip or migration IRTS 2008 categories Visitors Personal Holiday, leisure and recreation Visiting friends and relatives Education and training Health and medical care Religion/pilgrimages Shopping Transit entering eco./legal territory Other Business and professional (no employer-employee relationship with Length of stay of individuals Less than 3 months entity established in compiling economy) Contractual service supply: X - self-employed X - employed X of which intra-corporate X Serv. sales/ commercial pres. negotiation - serv. salespersons/ commercial pres. of serv. producer negotiation - commercial pres. of goods producing company negotiation Other (incl. meetings, conferences, etc) X X 3 to 12 months more than 12 months Categories of the UN Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration, revision 1: Non-Migrant categories Migrant categories
Mode 4, migration, tourism statistics (2/2) RSIM Rev.1 categories Purpose of trip or migration Length of stay of individuals Less than 3 months 3 to 12 months Employment (migrant workers, employmentbased settlement) Intra corporate transfer: - in services producing company X - other Directly recruited by a foreign established: - services producing company X - other International civil servants Other Trainees Family reunification/formation Family based settlement; Ancestry based settlement Retiree settlement Entrepreneurs and investors settlement a X Humanitarian reasons (refugees, etc.) Border workers; Frequent crossers; Nomads Transit not entering economic/legal territory Diplomatic/consular personnel; Military pers. more than 12 months Categories of the UN Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration, revision 1: Non-Migrant categories Migrant categories 26
Destinations for arrivals of international visitors travelling for business and professional purposes, selected major economies, (Thousands) 2005 2006 2007 2008 Available EU(27) a 48712 50358 51595 52470 United States 5637 5569 6785 6893 China 4598 5548 6961 5678 Russian Fed. 3226 3233 3270 4112 Saudi Arabia 1951 1603 2659 3660 Hong Kong, China 3572 3862 3516 3630 Singapore 2549 2886 3168 3166 Malaysia 2283 2304 2987 3131 Canada 2622 2651 2587 2666 Macao, China 2994 2860 2969 Indonesia 2063 2011 2161 2433 Turkey 1972 2316 2228 2291 Nigeria 1527 1872 2131 Thailand 1545 1976 1817 India 1558 Japan 1477 1523 1576 1455 Kazakhstan 893 1023 1260 1300 Brazil 1559 1410 1437 1222 Norway 911 970 1082 1173 Ukraine 1040 1056 958 1114 Taipei, Chinese 1033 1041 1031 986 Viet Nam 493 976 652 845 a Excluding Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Portugal, Romania, Slovak Rep., Sweden. Note: Caution when interpreting the data because of coverage issues. 27 Source: UNWTO (2010)
Entries of intra-corporate transferees in selected OECD countries, 2000-2008 (Thousands) Intra-corporate transferees 2000 2007 2008 Average 2003-08 Austria 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.17 Canada 3.90 8.20 10.22 7.15 France 2.16 1.06 1.03 1.26 Germany 1.30 5.42 5.66 3.98 Japan 3.88 7.17 7.31 5.20 Norway 0.17 0.64...... Spain... 1.40 1.34 1.14 Switzerland... 6.23 7.32 6.87 United States 54.96 84.53 84.08 71.10 Source: OECD (2010). 28
Mode 4 measurement Data Sources for mode 4 Value of trade Surveys: Include questions in existing surveys Develop specific sectoral survey Number of persons Statistics on arrivals and departures from migration or tourism authorities Border/passenger surveys Enterprise, labour-force surveys, household Statistics on number and type of work permits granted Information from social security systems / health insurance schemes Population censuses Combine sources? Model based estimates? 29
Sales of Services by GATS Modes of Supply: 2007 Statistical Approximation Mode of Supply Estimated share 1 - cross-border supply 25-30 % 2 - consumption abroad 10 15 % 3 - commercial presence 55-60 % 4 presence of natural persons less than 5% (Approx. 200 billion USD) 30
Mode 4 measurement The size of mode 4 trade? Small compared to total trade, and to other modes of trade in services Importance varies across countries and sectors Mobility for skilled workers (incl. service providers) increasing, facilitated by special programs Both developed and developing countries are traders where mode 4 can be involved and important (exports and/or imports) 31