ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL Arab American Voters in 2010: Their Identity and Political Concerns September, 2010 2010 Zogby International 1
Methodology Sample Size Dates MOE (%) Arab Americans 404 9/27/10 9/29/10 +/- 5.0% The Arab American Institute commissioned Zogby International to conduct a telephone poll of 404 Arab Americans nationwide. Samples were randomly drawn over national cds using Zogby International's list of Arab surnames. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR s approved methodologies 1 and are comparable to other professional publicopinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. 2 Weighting by country of origin, religion, born in US, age, party, gender is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. 1 See COOP4 (p.38) in Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates of Surveys. The American Association for Public Opinion Research, (2000). 2 Cooperation Tracking Study: April 2003 Update, Jane M. Sheppard and Shelly Haas. The Council for Marketing & Opinion Research (CMOR). Cincinnati, Ohio (2003). 2
Executive Summary I.) Identity, Pride, and Discrimination. There was an increase in the number of respondents who identify as "Arab American". The 62% who so identify in 2010 shows a continuation of an upward trend that began in the mid- 1990's when only 51% described themselves as Arab Americans. This number has edged upward ever since. Over 90% say that they are "proud of their ethnicity", this despite the fact that more than two in five report having "experienced discrimination because of their ethnic background". It is important to note that among Arab Americans who are Muslim, the percentage who report having been discriminated against because of their ethnicity is a much higher 62%, while among Arab Americans who are Christian the percentage is a somewhat lower, but still high 35%. Finally, continuing a trend that began in 2002, significantly more Arab Americans identify as Democrats (50%) than those who identify as Republican (25%). 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1996 Democratic 50 54 45 43 39 40 38 Republican 25 27 31 32 31 38 36 Independent 23 17 19 16 14 28 23 3
II.) The 2010 Political Landscape. Arab Americans are somewhat more optimistic about the direction of the country, than voters at large; with 36% saying the country is on the "right track" as opposed to 48% who say it is on the "wrong track" (some polls show that among the electorate at large less than 20% say the U.S. is on the "right track"). But like the rest of American voters, Arab Americans give Congress a very low 18% approval rating. They also give both parties in Congress poor performance ratings, with Democrats scoring a low 24% approval and the GOP an even lower 13%. What are the key issues on the minds of Arab American voters? By far and away, it's "jobs and the economy" for 70%, followed by "the war in Iraq, Middle East peace and other foreign policy concerns" at 30%, and health care which scores high for 24% of Arab American voters (these issues and the scores they receive are nearly identical to the rankings and ratings they received in our 2008 poll). On virtually every one of these issues respondents said Democrats would do a better job than Republicans, often by margins of more than two to one. III.) President Obama's Job Performance. Arab Americans, who strongly backed Barack Obama, with 67% supporting his bid for the presidency in 2008, still have a favorable, though somewhat diminished view of this President's job performance. His approval rating in the community is 51% favorable against a 48% unfavorable rating. On most issues (Obama's "outreach to the Arab and Muslim Worlds" (42%), "ending torture" (39%), "handling the war in Iraq" (40%), health care (40%), and "protecting civil liberties" (45%) a plurality of Arab American voters say they are satisfied with the job he has done. A plurality is dissatisfied with the President's performance on only one issue, and that is his "handling the economy" (45% dissatisfied). On his "handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied are near evenly split (24%//29%), with a plurality (44%) saying "it's too early to tell" how well the President has performed. 4
Opinions on Identity, Nationality and Community 1. How are you most likely to describe yourself? By country of origin 19 17 26 25 11 15 17 21 As Arab American 41 40 42 36 54 34 43 38 By both 21 21 21 24 5 32 21 20 Neither 19 22 12 14 30 18 18 20 Not Sure <1 <1 <1 <1 -- 1 <1 1 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ By country of origin 19 20 21 15 12 22 As Arab American 41 33 37 50 53 34 By both 21 19 21 26 28 19 Neither 19 28 20 9 7 24 Not Sure <1 -- 1 <1 -- <1 5
2. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being 'not at all proud' and 5 being 'extremely proud,' how proud are you of your ethnic heritage? Born in the U.S. Not Born in the U.S. (1) Not at all proud 1 <1 2 -- 1 2 1 -- (2) <1 <1 -- -- 1 -- 1 -- (3) 7 8 5 3 17 6 9 5 (4) 17 19 9 9 25 25 20 13 (5) Extremely Proud 75 72 84 88 55 68 69 81 Not Sure <1 -- <1 <1 <1 -- <1 <1 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ (1) Not at all proud 1 1 1 -- -- 1 (2) <1 1 -- -- -- <1 (3) 7 8 5 5 4 8 (4) 17 15 14 15 40 8 (5) Extremely Proud 75 75 80 80 57 82 Not Sure <1 -- <1 <1 -- <1 3. Party Male Female Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democratic 50 48 57 37 63 48 63 32 42 54 Republican 25 26 22 33 17 32 9 42 20 27 Independent 23 24 19 29 18 19 24 27 36 18 Other 2 2 1 1 2 1 3 -- 3 2 Not Sure 50 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 6
4. How likely are you to vote in the elections this November? Very Likely 87 89 80 90 94 76 90 84 Somewhat likely 11 10 15 7 5 24 9 13 Not Likely 2 1 4 3 <1 1 1 3 Not Sure <1 -- 1 <1 <1 -- -- <1 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Very Likely 87 93 82 82 78 90 Somewhat likely 11 4 17 15 20 8 Not Likely 2 3 1 3 1 2 Not Sure <1 <1 <1 -- -- <1 5. 2008 election Obama 67 66 71 92 25 62 58 77 McCain 21 23 15 4 58 16 23 19 Someone else 7 8 6 1 15 14 14 1 Not Sure 4 3 9 3 3 8 5 4 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Obama 67 60 66 87 72 65 McCain 21 32 27 1 5 28 Someone else 7 2 1 9 20 3 Not Sure 4 6 6 2 4 5 7
6. How secure do you feel in your current job? Very 41 43 37 38 45 47 47 36 Fairly 23 21 31 23 27 19 16 30 Not Very 4 3 7 5 1 4 5 3 Not at all 10 10 9 11 3 14 11 9 Not Sure 21 23 16 24 23 15 21 22 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Very 41 41 41 34 52 37 Fairly 23 23 15 34 29 21 Not Very 4 3 7 4 5 4 Not at all 10 11 11 10 7 11 Not Sure 21 23 26 19 7 27 8
7. How confident are you that your children will have a better life than you? Very 30 26 40 25 36 35 41 18 Fairly 32 35 25 35 28 29 31 33 Not Very 21 21 22 21 21 22 16 27 Not at all 11 12 8 12 11 8 10 12 No children 6 6 5 7 3 6 2 10 Not Sure -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Very 30 18 34 26 36 27 Fairly 32 33 25 42 40 30 Not Very 21 23 25 22 18 23 Not at all 11 20 5 8 3 14 No children 6 6 10 2 3 6 Not Sure -- -- -- -- -- -- 9
8. Have you personally experienced discrimination in the past because of your ethnicity or country of origin? Yes 41 43 37 39 37 48 39 43 No 59 57 63 61 62 52 61 57 Not Sure <1 -- <1 -- <1 -- -- <1 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Yes 41 32 38 62 54 37 No 59 68 62 38 46 63 Not Sure <1 <1 -- -- -- <1 9. How concerned are you about facing discrimination in the future because of your ethnicity or country of origin? Very concerned 18 18 19 24 9 16 14 23 Somewhat concerned 19 19 18 19 14 22 17 20 Not very concerned 22 20 28 19 22 32 24 20 Not at all concerned 40 42 35 38 55 31 44 36 Not Sure 1 1 <1 1 <1 -- <1 1 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Very concerned 18 9 18 34 28 15 Somewhat concerned 19 14 17 30 24 17 Not very concerned 22 34 19 9 8 28 Not at all concerned 40 43 46 25 39 40 Not Sure 1 <1 <! 2 1 <1 10
Opinions on the 2010 Election 10. U.S. direction Right direction 36 33 44 50 11 36 39 33 Wrong track 48 51 38 25 83 55 54 41 Not Sure 16 16 18 26 7 8 7 26 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Right direction 36 35 38 39 26 40 Wrong track 48 47 46 46 57 44 Not Sure 16 18 17 15 17 16 11
11. How would you rate the overall job performance of each of the following - Congress Excellent 1 <1 3 1 1 <1 1 1 Good 17 18 17 23 9 12 16 18 Fair 35 33 41 43 20 37 27 42 Poor 44 47 33 30 67 47 55 33 Not Sure 3 2 5 3 3 4 1 5 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Excellent 1 <1 1 2 1 1 Good 17 22 10 20 10 21 Fair 35 34 34 39 40 32 Poor 44 39 51 37 45 43 Not Sure 3 4 4 3 4 3 12
12. How would you rate the overall job performance of each of the following - Democrats in Congress Excellent 5 4 6 7 3 1 4 6 Good 19 18 22 27 4 15 21 17 Fair 36 36 39 45 20 38 25 48 Poor 36 39 28 16 69 43 47 25 Not Sure 3 3 5 4 3 2 3 4 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Excellent 5 4 5 4 1 6 Good 19 20 12 27 15 21 Fair 36 40 41 32 38 34 Poor 36 32 38 34 42 35 Not Sure 3 4 4 3 4 3 13
13. How would you rate the overall job performance of each of the following - Republicans in Congress Excellent 1 <1 1 -- 2 -- <1 1 Good 12 11 14 7 18 11 9 15 Fair 25 23 29 22 35 22 27 23 Poor 58 61 49 66 41 60 61 55 Not Sure 5 5 6 5 4 7 3 8 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Excellent 1 1 1 <1 -- 1 Good 12 16 6 11 9 13 Fair 25 23 18 25 28 24 Poor 58 54 70 60 59 58 Not Sure 5 7 5 4 4 5 14
14. Which party would you rather have controlling Congress- Democrats or Republicans? Democrats 48 48 49 74 7 41 38 58 Republicans 24 29 12 4 70 20 34 15 Neither 22 18 32 16 19 35 26 18 Not Sure/Refuse 6 5 8 6 4 4 3 9 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 48 39 51 59 50 47 Republicans 24 32 19 13 24 25 Neither 22 25 22 21 20 22 Not Sure/Refuse 6 4 8 7 5 6 15
15. In your own words, what are the two top issues facing the country today? DEM GOP IND Jobs and the economy 70 83 63 54 War in Iraq/Peace/Foreign policy 30 24 34 42 Health care/insurance/ Prescription drugs 24 27 11 32 Education/Schools 13 15 8 16 Budget/Spending/Deficit 10 4 23 9 Terrorism/Security 7 5 8 4 Immigration 7 6 8 7 Politics/Government/Corruption/Campaign finance reform 6 5 8 5 Taxes 4 4 5 2 Welfare/Child care/homeless/housing/poverty 3 3 1 4 Environment 2 1 -- 5 Morality/Values 2 -- 10 -- Crime/Drugs/Violence 1 1 -- 1 Social Security/Elderly 0 -- -- <1 Palestine -- -- -- -- Lebanon -- -- -- -- Utility rates/gas prices -- -- -- -- Other 12 8 8 16 NS/None 1 1 <1 -- 16
16. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - The economy Democrats 51 51 54 72 9 54 45 58 Republicans 28 32 15 5 74 26 37 18 Neither 17 14 23 20 11 16 14 19 Not Sure/Refuse 4 3 8 3 7 3 4 5 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 51 39 51 76 63 46 Republicans 28 38 22 10 20 31 Neither 17 17 22 9 14 17 Not Sure/Refuse 4 6 4 4 2 5 17. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - The war on terrorism/national security Democrats 47 47 49 65 12 46 39 55 Republicans 25 27 18 7 72 11 34 15 Neither 24 25 20 22 10 40 24 24 Not Sure/Refuse 5 2 12 5 6 2 3 6 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 47 38 51 62 58 42 Republicans 25 36 21 5 14 29 Neither 24 20 23 29 25 23 Not Sure/Refuse 5 6 6 4 2 6 17
18. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Healthcare Democrats 61 58 70 83 15 67 52 70 Republicans 22 26 8 4 67 10 31 12 Neither 14 14 14 8 14 20 13 14 Not Sure/Refuse 4 2 7 4 4 2 4 3 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 61 51 69 67 64 59 Republicans 22 29 17 9 18 24 Neither 14 15 12 17 16 13 Not Sure/Refuse 4 4 1 7 2 4 19. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Israeli-Palestinian dispute Democrats 45 45 47 61 15 45 38 53 Republicans 8 7 8 1 25 5 9 7 Neither 41 43 37 36 51 43 49 33 Not Sure/Refuse 6 5 8 3 10 7 5 7 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 45 41 44 59 58 39 Republicans 8 10 10 1 2 10 Neither 41 39 41 37 36 44 Not Sure/Refuse 6 11 5 3 4 7 18
20. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Civil Liberties Democrats 60 58 65 75 22 73 59 60 Republicans 19 21 12 5 54 10 24 13 Neither 13 13 12 10 15 13 12 14 Not Sure/Refuse 9 9 10 11 9 4 5 13 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 60 54 54 78 64 57 Republicans 19 20 18 9 20 19 Neither 13 12 19 9 7 15 Not Sure/Refuse 9 14 9 5 8 10 21. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Taxes Democrats 47 46 51 72 7 40 40 54 Republicans 35 39 22 16 73 33 42 27 Neither 14 12 23 9 15 24 15 14 Not Sure/Refuse 4 3 5 3 6 3 3 5 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 47 44 41 61 44 48 Republicans 35 45 32 21 39 34 Neither 14 8 21 14 14 15 Not Sure/Refuse 4 3 6 4 3 4 19
23. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Promoting outreach to Arabs and Muslims Democrats 61 61 60 79 33 54 55 67 Republicans 7 7 5 2 20 4 5 8 Neither 26 25 27 15 37 35 37 15 Not Sure/Refuse 6 6 8 4 10 6 3 10 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Democrats 61 62 69 63 63 60 Republicans 7 10 6 3 2 9 Neither 26 17 18 31 32 24 Not Sure/Refuse 6 11 7 3 3 8 20
Opinions on President Obama 24., how would you rate President Obama's job performance? Excellent 13 12 14 18 7 9 10 15 Good 38 38 39 54 8 36 30 46 Fair 25 25 25 23 16 39 28 21 Poor 23 25 18 4 68 15 31 16 Not Sure 1 1 3 1 1 1 <1 2 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Excellent 13 13 16 9 4 15 Good 38 40 31 48 44 36 Fair 25 15 27 40 37 21 Poor 23 31 24 3 15 27 Not Sure 1 1 1 1 -- 2 21
have you been satisfied or dissatisfied with the efforts made by the Obama Administration in the following areas or is it too early to tell. 25. Outreach to the Arab and Muslim Worlds Satisfied 42 41 44 47 23 50 46 37 Dissatisfied 19 18 22 13 31 21 17 21 Too early to tell 34 35 30 36 40 23 33 34 Not Sure 6 6 4 5 6 7 4 8 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 42 35 43 50 41 40 Dissatisfied 19 21 22 17 17 20 Too early to tell 34 36 30 28 33 35 Not Sure 6 7 5 5 9 5 22
26. Handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Satisfied 24 25 22 25 12 36 29 19 Dissatisfied 29 27 33 29 27 29 27 30 Too early to tell 44 46 40 44 56 33 42 47 Not Sure 3 2 5 3 5 2 2 4 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 24 17 25 30 26 23 Dissatisfied 29 25 28 34 26 30 Too early to tell 44 55 42 34 47 44 Not Sure 3 4 4 3 1 4 27. Ending the use of torture Satisfied 37 35 43 40 32 40 44 30 Dissatisfied 28 31 19 24 33 32 31 25 Too early to tell 23 22 26 33 14 14 13 34 Not Sure 11 11 12 3 21 14 11 11 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 37 39 45 30 25 41 Dissatisfied 28 24 18 33 48 21 Too early to tell 23 19 29 25 21 25 Not Sure 11 18 8 11 7 13 23
28. Handling of Iraq Satisfied 40 37 47 47 27 41 45 35 Dissatisfied 27 27 25 23 32 26 25 28 Too early to tell 30 32 24 26 40 29 27 33 Not Sure 3 3 3 4 1 3 2 4 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 40 45 41 35 25 45 Dissatisfied 27 26 24 36 39 23 Too early to tell 30 26 30 25 37 28 Not Sure 3 2 5 3 <1 4 29. Handling of the economy Satisfied 29 29 28 41 11 24 20 37 Dissatisfied 45 47 39 22 79 55 53 38 Too early to tell 25 23 31 37 8 20 26 24 Not Sure 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 29 25 29 31 25 29 Dissatisfied 45 52 43 36 57 42 Too early to tell 25 22 27 32 17 28 Not Sure 1 1 1 1 1 1 24
30. Handling of healthcare Satisfied 40 38 45 58 13 30 31 49 Dissatisfied 38 42 26 13 77 48 52 24 Too early to tell 20 18 28 27 8 20 16 24 Not Sure 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 40 37 31 55 34 41 Dissatisfied 38 43 38 28 48 35 Too early to tell 20 19 28 15 15 22 Not Sure 2 1 3 2 3 2 31. Civil Liberties Satisfied 45 43 53 55 25 51 47 44 Dissatisfied 25 27 19 16 33 32 22 28 Too early to tell 19 18 20 15 33 13 23 14 Not Sure 11 12 8 14 9 5 8 14 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 45 41 50 48 33 49 Dissatisfied 25 25 28 26 35 21 Too early to tell 19 19 13 14 21 18 Not Sure 11 15 8 12 11 11 25
32. Policy toward Lebanon Satisfied 27 27 25 32 11 31 29 24 Dissatisfied 17 15 23 9 26 24 16 18 Too early to tell 36 37 33 35 38 37 40 32 Not Sure 21 21 19 24 25 8 14 27 Catholic Protestant Muslim 18-35 36+ Satisfied 27 21 30 31 25 26 Dissatisfied 17 18 16 16 16 17 Too early to tell 36 35 33 35 39 35 Not Sure 21 26 21 19 20 22 26