European Elections in the UK Media Briefing 7 th May 214
UKIP and the 214 European Parliament elections Dr Philip Lynch (PLL3@le.ac.uk) & Dr Richard Whitaker (rcw11@le.ac.uk) University of Leicester
UKIP and the 214 European Elections Philip Lynch (PLL3@leicester.ac.uk, @drphiliplynch) and Richard Whitaker (rcw11@leicester.ac.uk, @rickwhitaker) Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester UKIP go into the 214 European elections in a far stronger position than they did five years earlier. The crucial differences are first, that UKIP have not experienced the decline in support in general election polling that they normally do after a European election. On the contrary, they are now consistently placed in third position in polls of general election vote intentions. Second, their ratings in polls of European election vote intention are some ten points higher on average than they were in the run up to the 29 contest for seats in the European Parliament (EP). Third, they have more than double the number of members and a much better, even if still small base in local councils having secured 147 seats in the 213 local elections. Fourth, while they have benefitted in the past from Conservative supporters lending UKIP their vote, they are in an even better position to do so this time around given that the Tories are now in government. On top of that, if UKIP s campaign to win even more support from working class voters is successful, they will make headway in areas where Labour are traditionally strong. The presence of the Liberal Democrats in government alongside the collapse of the BNP add to the auspicious conditions for UKIP in 214. What do we know about likely UKIP voters at the 214 European elections? Many Conservative supporters do appear to be lending their vote to UKIP. Around one quarter of those who would vote Conservative if a general election were held tomorrow, will vote UKIP at the European elections, on the basis of a YouGov poll of over 5, respondents in late April. Furthermore, 41% of those who voted Cons in 2 say they will vote UKIP in May 214. UKIP are therefore gaining in the European elections at the expense of the Conservatives far more than from other parties. UKIP are performing better among older and male voters and better among those in the C2DE classes compared with those classified as ABC1. Nevertheless, they still gain support from a little below one-quarter of ABC1 voters, a point that often seems to be neglected amid the party s focus on picking up working class voters. At the 29 European elections, Euroscepticism was the most powerful factor explaining the UKIP vote, with a desire to express views on the UK and the EU, dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and attitudes to immigration also important. A recent YouGov poll indicated that wanting out of the EU was the most frequently cited reason for supporting UKIP at the upcoming EP elections, although this may be partly a result of some respondents giving what they perceive to be the right answer to the question. Looking at those saying they will vote UKIP at a general election, the party has made the biggest gains in the post-2 election period among working class voters, as Ford and Goodwin spell out in their book Revolt on the Right. Nevertheless, they also show that UKIP gains on support from across a range of groups. Drawing on the British Election Study s Continuous Monitoring Survey, fully 35% of UKIP supporters in the April 212-April 213 period were managers or professionals. The working class support that UKIP is gaining poses a problem for the Conservatives as well as Labour. Some of these working class UKIP voters are ex-conservatives, others are blue collar voters who are part of a social group that the Conservatives used to attract but who now seem beyond their reach. These are the type of voters for whom the patriotism, social authoritarianism and aspirational aspects of Thatcherism were attractive. In winning working class support, UKIP makes it more difficult for the Conservatives to be a cross-class, cross-national party. Working class conservatives now face a Tebbit test about which side to cheer for, the Conservative Party or UKIP.
UKIP s expansion has brought with it some growing pains. The party has broadened its narrative to encompass policies such as immigration beyond its core issue of leaving the EU. However, a disconnect persists between the views of many in the UKIP leadership who favour Thatcherite economic policies and are socially liberal, and UKIP s socially conservative, working class supporters. Nigel Farage has disowned UKIP s 2 election manifesto, and the party s 214 local and European election manifestos have a sharper focus on betrayed working people than previously. Their current policy review could be used to dilute their small state, low tax approach but whether donors and activists would tolerate major changes in the party s economic policy is not clear. In addition, growth has brought pressure for organisational change. The party has improved its approach with tougher candidate selection procedures for the European elections for instance. Nevertheless, the selection of candidates for council seats has clearly not been without problems. UKIP have belatedly realised the need to build up representation on local councils as part of the route towards winning seats at Westminster. In addition they are aware of their poorer performance among young people, women and ethnic minorities, and chose to feature all of these groups in their first Party Election Broadcast of the campaign. UKIP are set to expand their delegation in the European Parliament by some way at these elections. The new UKIP contingent will look different partly because there are only six incumbent MEPs standing for the party and also because there are 6-7 women in winnable positions. Jane Collins and Jill Seymour top the lists in Yorkshire and the Humber, and the West Midlands respectively. Female UKIP candidates are in second place on the party s lists in the North West, East Midlands, South East and South West plus a third-placed female candidate (Diane James) in the -seat South East region. 11 of the UKIP candidates in with a chance of winning a seat are former Conservatives including William Dartmouth, formerly a Conservative peer, and Roger Helmer who defected from the Tories in March 212. Success for UKIP would mean many of their key personnel will be MEPs including not only the leader and deputy leader but their Director of Communications (Patrick O Flynn), General Secretary (Jonathan Arnott) and the head of their policy unit (Tim Aker). While UKIP are open about the variation in approaches taken by their MEPs, those in major strategic positions for the party will surely have to spend a good deal of their time in the UK in order to carry out their party-based roles. In the aftermath of the European elections comes the process of forming groups in the European Parliament. Here UKIP may find things difficult in that their largest partner, the Italian Northern League, looks set to join a group led by Marine Le Pen s Front National and Geert Wilders Freedom Party, if they can summon up the numbers of MEPs and member states needed. There may also be some competition with the European Conservatives and Reformists group for the more palatable Eurosceptics in the EP. UKIP success will pose strategic dilemmas for other parties. Should UKIP win the 214 European elections, we can expect more dissent from Eurosceptic Conservative MPs who want to see the party take a tougher line on the EU and immigration. If UKIP perform well in Labour s heartlands at a time when Miliband s party are in opposition, Labour will face questions about how to respond to UKIP s appeal. Ignoring it may not be an option. Alternatives are to hold their position and emphasise the Thatcherite elements of UKIP s policies, or to move closer to UKIP on immigration and the EU. Evidently some Lib Dem voters have shifted to UKIP most likely those who wanted an option other than the largest two parties. This trend could contribute to a sharp fall in Liberal Democrat vote share in 214. In any case, a UKIP victory will pose questions of strategy for all three main parties.
6/5/214 UKIP s general and European electoral performance Percentage of vote 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 16.1 16.5 7 1.5 2.2 3.1.3 1997 1999 21 24 25 29 2 Election year General elections European elections General election vote intention (212-14, YouGov polls) Percentage of respondents 2 3 4 5 Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Date Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/ European election vote intention (from YouGov polls) 214 Percentage of respondents 2 3 4 5 Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Green BNP 15_Jan 18_Mar 27_Mar 28_Mar 4_Apr 22_Apr 25_Apr 27_Apr Date Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/ 1
6/5/214 Region Cons Lab UKIP Lib Dem BNP Green Others South West West Midlands 3.2 7.7 22.1 17.2 3.9 9.3 9.6 28.1 17 21.3 12 8.6 6.2 6.7 East 31.2.5 19.6 13.8 6.1 8.8.1 South East 34.8 8.2 18.8 14.1 4.4 11.6 8 Yorks& Humber East Midlands North West 29 European Parliament elections share of vote (%) 24.5 18.8 17.4 13.2 9.8 8.5 7.9 3.2 16.9 16.4 12.3 8.7 6.8 8.7 25.6 2.4 15.8 14.3 8 7.7 8.2 North East 19.8 25 15.4 17.6 8.9 5.8 7.5 Wales 21.2 2.3 12.8.7 5.4 5.6 24. London 27.4 21.3.8 13.7 4.9.9 11.1 GB 27.7 15.7 16.5 13.7 6.2 8.6 11.6 UKIP in the 29 European Parliament elections Region UKIP vote % UKIP MEPs Round elected South West 22.1 2 of 6 2, 5 West Midlands 21.3 2 of 7* 2, 6 East 19.6 2 of 7 2, 7 South East 18.8 2 of 2, 7 Yorks& Humber 17.4 1 of 6 3 East Midlands 16.4 1 of 5 3 North West 15.8 1 of 8 3 North East 15.4 of 3 - Wales 12.8 1 of 4 4 London.8 1 of 8 6 Scotland 5.2 of 6 - TOTAL 13 MEPs 2 vote choice and current Westminster vote choice by intention to vote UKIP in Euro elections % in category who would vote UKIP in Euro elections 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 98 41 24 19 14 8 6 2 vote choice Current Westminster preference Cons Lab Lib Dem UKIP Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-3 April 214, n=5331 2
6/5/214 Percentages of main party voters switching to UKIP, Jan 212-Apr 214 Percentage of respondents 5 15 2 25 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Date Source: First YouGov poll in each month (http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/) Sex, age, class by intention to vote UKIP in European elections % in category who would vote UKIP in Euro elections 4 35 3 25 2 15 5 37 34 31 29 26 23 17 Male Female 18-24 25-39 4-59 6+ ABC1 C2DE Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-3 April 214, n=1141 UKIP EP voters % of respondents 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 5 Why vote UKIP in Euro elecs? Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-3 April 214, n=1141 UKIP EP voters 3
6/5/214 % of occupational group supporting UKIP Percentage support for UKIP within occupational groups 14 12 8 6 4 2 Pro or manager Routine non-manual (clerical or sales) Skilled manual or supervisor Semi or unskilled manual Source: CMS monthly polls aggregated into 12 month groups. Breakdown of UKIP support by occupation % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% % % Never worked Semi or unskilled manual Skilled manual or supervisor Routine non-manual (clerical or sales) Pro or manager Source: CMS monthly polls aggregated into 12 month groups. UKIP at 21: growing pains&maturity Growing pains maintaining support from former Conservatives while repositioning as party for the working class tensions between ideology/policy of UKIP leadership & positions of UKIP supporters UKIP a maturing party new UKIP becoming more professional recognises need to build local presence sharper focus on winning working class support 4
6/5/214 Age profile of UKIP European election candidates, 29 and 214 4 35 3 25 2 15 5 18-3 31-4 41-5 51-6 61-7 71+ 29 214 Source: Lynch and Whitaker survey for 29 n=47 (68% response rate). For 214: UKIP internal publication, 214 MEP Candidate details: Your candidates, your choice. UKIP 214 leading candidates North East (3 seats): Jonathan Arnott North West (8 seats): Paul Nuttall, Louise Bours, Steven Woolfe, Shneur Odze Yorkshire & Humber (6 seats): Jane Collins, Amjad Bashir, Mike Hookem East Midlands(5 seats): Roger Helmer, Margot Parker, Jonathan Bullock West Midlands(7 seats): Jill Seymour, James Carter, Bill Etheridge East(7 seats): Patrick O Flynn, Stuart Agnew, Tim Aker London (8 seats): Gerard Batten, Paul Oakley South East( seats): Nigel Farage, Janice Atkinson, Diane James, Ray Finch South West (6 seats): William Dartmouth, Julia Reid, Gawain Towler Wales (4 seats): Nathan Gill Scotland (6 seats): David Coburn Post-EP election opportunities and dilemmas Forming group in European Parliament Problems as most sizable partner at present is Lega Nord (will go to Le Pen/Wilders group) Competition with Conservatives for more palatable Eurosceptics Strategic dilemmas for other parties 5