The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Robert Puentes, Fellow Caution: Challenges Ahead A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation Eno Foundation Forum on the Future of Urban Transportation December 6, 2006 Washington, DC
A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation Outline FOUR BROAD DEMOGRAPHIC MEGA-TRENDS Effect of those trends on metropolitan areas Impacts on the nation s s transportation network
Population Growth Immigration Aging Internal Migration
The 1990s presented the strongest growth in four decades. U.S. population growth, 1900-2005 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Decade 0% Source: Census Numerical increase (in millions) Percent Increase
Single person households made up -- by far -- the largest increase in household type since 1990. Nonfamily, 3,416,246 Other family, 1,758,377 1-person household, 11,825,702 Absolute change in households, 1980-2005 Single female w /kids, 4,680,913 Single male w /kids, 2,165,939 Married no kids, 5,476,979 Married w /kids, 1,376,788 Source: Frey and Berube, 2003
After several decades of rapid immigration, the share of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is approaching early 1900 s levels. Foreign Born Population (in millions) Total foreignborn and percent, 1900-2005 Population in Millions 40 30 20 10 14% 15% Percent of Total Population 13% 12% 9% 7% 5% 5% 6% 8% 11% 12% 16% 12% 8% 4% Percent of Total Population Source: Updated from Singer 2005-1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 0%
At the same time, the U.S. population is aging rapidly. US Age Distribution, 1970 vs. 2020 1970 2020 Male 85+ Female Male 85+ Female <5 <5 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6% 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6% Source: Census
Minorities, however, have younger age structures than whites US Age Distribution, 2020 Male Whites Female Male Hispanics Female \ Blacks API/AI Male Female Male Female Source: Census
The demographic components of change reveal increasingly sharp differences between states. Source: Frey, 2002 New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland
The demographic components of change reveal increasingly sharp differences between states. 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Immigration Domestic Natural New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland Demographic components of change, 1990-1999 Source: Census Arizona Colorado Georgia Texas California New York Minnesota Missouri Pennsylvania
A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation Outline Four broad demographic mega-trends EFFECT OF THOSE TRENDS ON METROPOLITAN AREAS Impacts on the nation s s transportation network
City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty
Recent demographic and market changes have already led to a surge of population in cities and downtowns. 10% 8% 6% Total population, 45 U.S. downtowns, 1970-2000 4% 2% 0% -2% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 Population growth in 50 largest cities, 1970-2005 250,000-1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Census
The majority of downtowners in 2000 lived alone; the next largest group contained young couples without kids. Downtown households by type, 2000 11% 6% Married with kids Married without kids 14% Other family with kids Other family without kids Living alone 5% Other non-family 5% 59% Source: Birch, 2005
The primary determinant for how a city grows is based on the metropolitan area it is in. Average city and metro area population change, by category, 1990-2000 City Category Number of Cities City Population Change Metro Population Change Rapid Growth (over 20%) 18 31% 26% Significant Growth (10 to 20%) 23 15% 22% Moderate Growth (2 to 10%) 33 6% 13% No Growth (-2 to 2%) 6 0% 11% Loss (below -2%) 20-7% 6% Source: Berube, 2003
City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty
Population is continuing to decentralize in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area. Selected cities and suburbs, population growth 1990-2000 50% 40% 44% 37% City Suburbs 30% 22% 20% 16% 19% 18% 10% 6% 4% 7% 9% 0% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100 Source: Census
Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in cities 45% 35% Central City Suburbs Population growth, 1990-2000 25% 15% 5% Source: Frey, 2003-5% All Households Married - no children Married - with children Other Family - no children Other Family - with children Nonfamily
From 1980 to 2000 the states with the highest rates of rural land loss were concentrated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Loss in developable rural land, 1980-2000 >20% 10-20% 2-10% <2% Source: Theobald, 2005
In some areas in the Southwest, the elderly are becoming disproportionately represented on the suburban fringe. Phoenix Active adult retirement communities Source: Rosenbloom, 2005
City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty
In aggregate, the racial makeup of the 100 largest cities has shifted. The top hundred cities are now majority minority 7% Share of population by race and ethnicity, 2000 White Black Hispanic Asian Multi-racial 23% 44% 24% Source: Census
The percent of each racial/ethnic group living in the suburbs increased substantially. Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990, 2000 1990 2000 39% 51% 55% 46% 50% 33% Source: Census Blacks Asians Hispanics
Older, inner-ring first suburbs are now home to a large and growing number of foreign-born residents. 10,000,000 Primary Cities First Suburbs New er Suburbs 8,000,000 6,000,000 Foreign-born population, 1970-2000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Puentes and Warren, 2006
City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty
Over half of all jobs in large metropolitan areas are located more than 10 miles outside of downtowns. Share of jobs within 3-, 10-, and greater- than-10- mile radius of center, 2002 52% Outside 10 miles 17% Inside 3 miles 31% Between 3 and 10 miles Source: Berube, undated
In many metros, an exit ramp economy dominates office development. Share of metropolitan office space (SQ FT), 1999 60% Central business district Edge cities Edgeless space 40% 20% Source: Lang, 2003 0% Chicago Denver Los Angeles San Fran
City resurgence Uneven growth Racial diversity Job sprawl Geography of poverty
Most of America s poor live in large metropolitan suburbs. But residents of large cities are twice as likely to be poor. Below-poverty population by location, 2005 Percentage of people in poverty, 2005 16.7 18.4 14.0 9.4 Source: Berube and Kneebone, 2006 Estimates are roughly +/- 0.5 % pts. Large Suburbs Smaller Cities/Towns Micropolitan/Rural Large Cities
Poverty rates in central cities declined from 1990 to 2002, while poverty rates in the suburbs have increased slightly Poverty rates for central cities and suburbs, 1990-2001 19% 17% 1990 2002 9% 9% Central City Suburbs Source: Current Population Survey, 2002
During the 1990s, the number of high-poverty neighborhoods in central cities dropped significantly. In Chicago, the number of high poverty tracts fell from 187 to 114. 1990 2000
While the number of high-poverty areas is dropping sharply in cities, it is increasing at an alarming rate in first suburbs. 10% Percent of census tracts in first suburbs exceeding specified poverty thresholds, 1970-2000 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Tracts with 20% poverty rate Tracts with 30% poverty rate Tracts with 40% poverty rate 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Puentes and Warren, 2006
A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation Outline Four broad demographic mega-trends Effect of those trends on metropolitan areas IMPACTS ON THE NATION S TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
1. What does the new urban resurgence mean for transportation? Transit ridership is up, especially in cities where new rail lines have been constructed. Non-recreation walking is up markedly, as is walking to school. Downtowns with efficient, functioning transit systems are surging.
2. If metropolitan areas are decentralizing, what does this do to demand? More cars. The number of vehicles per household is rising as people per household is falling. More driving. Increases continue in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), gasoline consumed, and time behind the wheel. Research shows the primary determinant of VMT is the degree of sprawl.
3. How will increasing diversity and aging in cities and suburbs affect transportation? Immigrants are more likely to carpool. But their high levels of transit use decline over time. The elderly are just as dependent on private cars for their mobility and take many fewer transit trips. Proximity to transit appears to be a growing determinant, irrespective of race.
4. What does continued job sprawl do to commuting patterns? Suburb-to-suburb commute still dominates. Two-thirds of the increase in flows during the 1990s was suburb-suburb. Average commute times increased 14% in the 1990s. Overall, driving alone was the only mode that increased its share. But regionally, transit use and carpooling increased in the West.
5. How does the changing geography of poverty affect job access? Most low income workers live in inner cities and first suburbs, far from growing employment centers. Traditional fixed-route public transit is ineffective against this spatial mismatch. Low income adults face long travel times. Access to opportunities may be the most difficult for the suburban and rural poor without vehicles.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUTURE Built environment: By 2030 about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after 2000. How that is done will have enormous transportation consequences and should provide policy makers a vital opportunity to reshape future development. Household changes: Childless married-couple and single-person households will grow rapidly and account for nearly half of the net growth in households over the next ten years, but single persons will continue to be the fastest-growing household type. Thus, there appears to be an increasing demand for smaller housing units. Continued diversity: Minorities are expected to account for 71 percent of household growth from 2006 to 2016, increasing from 63 percent from 1995 to 2005. This suggests a new multicultural approach to transportation policy. Migration shifts: The Census Bureau estimates that Western and Southern states with a strong history of growth management Florida, California, Washington will account for the lion s share of growth between 2000 and 2030. Increasing elderly: By 2030 more than one in five Americans will be over the age of sixtyfive, and one-in eleven will be over 85. Addressing the mobility needs of this segment of society will go a long way to solving transportation challenges in general.
www.brookings.edu/metro rpuentes@brookings.edu
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