Decoding the Government s Mandate Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania August 7, 2014
Orienting Questions Introduction Orienting Questions BJP s Overall Performance BJP won 282 seats on 31% of the vote share in 2014, while the Congress won just 206 seats on 29% of the vote share in 2009. What explains BJP s efficiency in converting votes into seats?
Orienting Questions Introduction Orienting Questions BJP s Overall Performance BJP won 282 seats on 31% of the vote share in 2014, while the Congress won just 206 seats on 29% of the vote share in 2009. What explains BJP s efficiency in converting votes into seats? India had its highest ever turnout, at 66%, in 2014. This is a sharp increase over the 58% turnout in 2009. What is the relationship between the turnout and BJP s victory?
BJP s Overall Performance Orienting Questions BJP s Overall Performance BJP won 282 out 428 contested constituencies 66% strike rate
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Consider the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh BJP won 194 out of 213 contested seats strike rate of 91% 69% of the total number of seats won by BJP
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Consider the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh BJP won 194 out of 213 contested seats strike rate of 91% 69% of the total number of seats won by BJP Now consider Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal BJP won 7 out of 101 contested seats strike rate of 7% 2% of total seats won by BJP
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Competitiveness A party was coded as competitive if it was one of the top 2 vote getters in the constituency. BJP competitive in 79% of the constituencies in which it contested BJP won in 84% of the constituencies in which it was competitive
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Competitiveness
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Head-to-Head Against Congress
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Head-to-Head Against Congress
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Head-to-Head Against Congress BJP won 166 out 189 constituencies head-to-head against Congress strike rate of 88% Strike rate in Bihar and UP was 85% Taken together these two categories yielded 247 out of the 282 seats for BJP (88%)
Competitiveness Head-to-Head Against Congress Making Sense of the Data Making Sense of the Data Extremely regionally concentrated results this explains how vote share is converted into seats Outside of Bihar and UP and head-to-head battles with Congress, BJP competitive in just 39% of constituencies Strike rate of 63% in those competitive constituencies BJP was the only true national party in the this election but paradoxically is not representative of India What do West Bengal and UP tell us about the future?
Preliminaries Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Interpreting the Data Preliminaries Narendra Modi s ability to bring new (or passive) voters to the polls and create a swell of support for the BJP I will undertake an analysis of turnout change between 2009 and 2014.
Preliminaries Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Interpreting the Data Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support
Preliminaries Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Interpreting the Data Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support
Preliminaries Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Interpreting the Data Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support
Preliminaries Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Interpreting the Data
Preliminaries Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Interpreting the Data
Preliminaries Increase in Voter Turnout vs. BJP Support Interpreting the Data Questions Big Question: Who are the new voters? Can the BJP convert already mobilized voters going forward? What does the BJP need to do going forward to hold on to new voters?
Lok Surveys Introduction Voter Views Bharat vs. India Looking Forward Goal: To understand the social and political reconfigurations taking place across India today Delhi Kolkata Mumbai Chennai Multi-year panel of 65,000+ households in 24 states and UTs
The Economy Dominates Voter Views Bharat vs. India Looking Forward 25% 21% 18% 14% 8% 7% 5% 3% Economic Growth Corruption In9lation Personal Income Law and Order Access to Govt Bene9its Leadership Identity
Voter Views Bharat vs. India Looking Forward Growth: Large State-Level Variation 50% Share of respondents influenced by growth 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 43% 43% 41% 38% 32% 31% 28% CTG PUN GUJ WB RAJ TN KER KAR AP 22% 21% 20% 19% 17% 13% 7% MP HAR MAH UP BIH
Top Issues by State Introduction Voter Views Bharat vs. India Looking Forward Corruption Economic growth Inflation/price rise Kerala 43% Chha,sgarh 43% Maharashtra 29% Bihar 40% Punjab 43% Haryana 25% U?ar Pradesh 33% Gujarat 41% Andhra Pradesh 26% West Bengal 38% Madhya Pradesh 25% Rajasthan 32% Tamil Nadu 31% Karnataka 22%
Voter Views Bharat vs. India Looking Forward Bharat vs. India 35% 33% 32% 30% 28% 27% 25% 24% 22% 23% 24% 20% 15% UPA NDA 10% 5% 0% Rural illiterate Rural literate Urban illiterate Urban literate
Bharat vs India? Introduction Voter Views Bharat vs. India Looking Forward 30% 25% 23% 20% 19% 16% 15% 12% 10% 9% 5% 5% 0% Access to Govt Personal Income Corruption rural 4% 2% Identity urban 27% 23% 19% 17% 8% 6% 6% 4% InBlation Law and Order Leadership Economic Growth
Looking Forward Introduction Voter Views Bharat vs. India Looking Forward Will the coalition (NDA) matter? Very strong evidence of economic mandate. How do recent actions play? What does the stock market tell us?