Summary Report of ISS Public Seminar Series Implications of the April Polls in Sudan for the 2011 Referendum Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya Thursday, 27 May 2010 Introduction The just-ended April 11-15 polls in Sudan was the first democratic election involving the whole of Sudan in more than two decades of the country s history. The polls fulfilled one of the key landmarks of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and brought to an end the transitional period, which began in 2005. Coming in the wake of the International Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of President Omar al-bashir, instability in several parts of the country, and an impending referendum for selfdetermination by the South in 2011, several political interests and positions were at stake in the elections. In the run-up to the elections, the main opposition parties, including the Sudan People s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and Umma Party, withdrew their candidates and boycotted the polls at varying levels in the North, amidst claims of widespread irregularities and fraud by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP). Reacting to the boycotts, President Omar al-bashir threatened to cancel the 2011 referendum if the April elections did not take place. Even though the threat was not carried out, and the President has since repeatedly emphasised his willingness to respect the outcome of the referendum, the threat vividly established the connection between the April polls 1
and the referendum not only in terms of the context of the CPA, but particularly in terms of the outcomes of the former on the latter. Aim of the Seminar Despite traded allegations of vote rigging, voter intimidation, inadequacies in technical preparations, and gerrymandering against the ruling NCP, the polls have ended and power balance in the country has not changed much. Positions and interests of the actors, particularly the SPLM and the NCP persist. Many international observer teams have faulted the standards of the elections. Notwithstanding, the polls have given important hints and insights into institutional and structural weaknesses that were, hitherto, latent in the electoral process of the country. The questions that principally emerge in the preparation for the country s future are: what are the implications of this election on the 2011 referendum, which appears to be the major preoccupation of the South and therefore the SPLM? What lessons have been learned towards an incident-free and / or a peaceful referendum in 2011? What are the political and security dilemma confronting the country in the run up to the referendum? In trying to find answers to these questions and as a way of informing policy for a peaceful Sudan, the Africa Conflict Prevention Program of ISS Nairobi organised a one-day seminar under the theme Implications of the April Polls in Sudan for the 2011 Referendum, to provide a forum for frank discussions on these issues. The deliberations brought together more than forty participants including politicians, diplomats, security practitioners, academics, researchers and members of civil society. Welcome Address Welcoming participants to the seminar, the Acting Director of the ISS Nairobi office and Programme Head of the Environmental Security Programme (ESP), Dr. Wilson Kipkore, reiterated the importance of the stability of Sudan to the Horn of Africa region. He added that the April Polls were part of a peace deal that ended the 21-year civil war in Sudan and was therefore key in the history and progress of the country. He expressed his belief that despite allegations by different monitoring groups about the standards of the elections, the process was an opportunity for the country, and 2
Africa as a whole, to learn. He stated that as much as there were certain weaknesses, there were major successes as well, which he enjoined participants at the seminar to endeavour to tease out for Africa to learn from. Summary of Presentations and Discussions The first session was on The April Polls: Lessons Learned and Implications for the 2011 Referendum. It was presented by General Abas Ali Khalifa of the Sudan Army and chaired by Ambassador Adala Ochieng of the Africa Peace Forum (APF). According to General Abas, the April elections were generally peaceful save for isolated incidences in parts of the country. He argued that this gives hope that the 2011 referendum will be the same if the necessary precautions are taken. He recommended that for a successful referendum process, there is the need for cooperation and coordination between the North and South so as to ensure that all parties create the right atmosphere for the referendum. Additionally, there should be a national agreement developed between NCP and SPLM to determine how the referendum and associated post-referendum issues can be peacefully managed. There is also the need to adequately equip and train security forces to enable them to contribute positively towards the success of the referendum whilst making the criteria for the selection onto referendum-related committees as transparent as possible. Most importantly, he proposed that diplomatic missions overseas should be mobilised to ensure that Southern Sudanese abroad are able to participate in the referendum. He emphasised, however, that the NCP should strive to make unity an attractive option to Southerners so as to avoid a split. In his view, separation of the South is dangerous and all efforts should be made to unify the country since it can lead to the renewal of fighting among ethnic groups in the South. Historically, Southern Sudan sought federal autonomy within one state, not separation. However, the Government of Sudan (GoS) will respect the choice of the South, be it unity or separation. He recommended that to make unity an attractive option, Sudan should collaborate with strategic regional and international partners who will help in advocating for the unity of the country. Prior to the referendum, however, it would be important to complete the process of border demarcation and particularly tackle inter-ethnic 3
conflicts in the South and areas such as the Upper Nile and Jonglei. This is because insecurity in those areas may adversely affect the referendum. The second session on the the Political and Security Dilemma towards the 2011 Referendum, was chaired by Ambassador David Kikaya of the United States International University (USIU), Kenya. Mr Nelson Alusala, a Senior Researcher in the Arms Management Programme (AMP) of the ISS, presented a paper for the session. He argued that despite the fact that it appears a split by the South is a foregone conclusion; there are still crucial security and political challenges to be addressed in other to avoid the deterioration of security before and after the referendum. The first challenge revolves around the extent of volatility of the region within which Sudan finds itself. About 10 countries in the region are due for elections between 2010-2011. Considering the political and security situations in most of the countries are inter-connected, especially with Sudan, the individual outcomes of each election will tend to affect the stability of other countries including Sudan and vice-versa. The second security concern is the proliferation of small arms and light weapons from historic civil wars, the Horn of Africa conflict system, militarization of cattle rustling and inter-communal sale of arms. Related to the latter is the security complexities of cattle raiding, abduction, intracommunity violence, conflict over land and natural resources, security sector limitations, weak legislative systems, pastoralist mobility and the complexity of the intersections of different levels of conflicts, factional, local and north-south. He proposed that towards confronting the challenges, there is the need for regional governments to commit to a regional approach for disarmament, particularly the implementation of the Nairobi Protocol. He stressed the need for a transparent referendum since security could deteriorate if the referendum process is viewed as tainted. 4
During discussions after the presentation, it became clear that the North-South dichotomy does not address issues confronting the Abyei, Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile areas. Sharing his thoughts on Election as a Peacebuilding strategy in the CPA Arrangement: Context, Complexities and Prospects in the third session chaired by Dr. Rose Mwebaza, Dr. Kithure Kindiki, Associate Dean of the School of Law at the University of Nairobi, argued that coming on the foot of an ICC indictment of President Omar al-bashir; the international pressure on Government of Sudan for diplomacy and democracy; and international mistrust that the CPA would not be honoured; the April polls were an important step for the country. He noted that a coordinated regional engagement is vital to support peace in Sudan since porous borders, militia, poor governance and the refugee situation may enhance the regional challenges of a spill over effect of potential conflict. He added that a false assumption of homogeneity of the North and South precludes critical analysis of concerns of the three regions, which as yet do not fall under either. Additionally an over-simplification of the Sudan issue is counterproductive since it does that at the exclusion of important dimensions of cultural determination and complexity of identity, which are crucial drivers of the situation. He recommended that the global focus should be on mobilizing resources towards stability and security of Sudan beyond the economic and trade benefits of cessation or otherwise. Secondly, there is the urgent need to set up a system to deal with potential conflicts due to the parallel North-South agendas of unity and separation. In the event that the South separates, he proposed that the region would be obligated to support the South in creating structures to develop good governance and healthy democracy. Prior to the referendum, he proposed the management of expectations in light of socioeconomic and cultural realities of the South and the huge task that lies ahead in building a new nation Closing the seminar, Dr. Rose Mwebaza, a senior legal advisor in the Environmental Security Programme of the ISS expressed the appreciation of the Institute to the all participants for their frankness in discussing issues. She also thanked the Hans Seidel 5
Foundation (HSF) and the donors of the Institute for their support in funding the seminar. [END] 6