Markets in higher education Simon Marginson Institute of Education (IOE) Conference on The State and Market in Education: Partnership or Competition? The Grundtvig Study Centre Aarhus University and LLAKES, IOE 21 March 2014, IOE
National and global perspectives
High Participation Systems (HPS)
Declining value of credentials in HPS but graduate premium is maintained
Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio 1995/2011 Selected OECD and European systems, UNESCO Institute for Statistics data 2014
Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio 1995/2011 World regions, UNESCO Institute for Statistics data 2014 North America & Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe La n America & Carribean East Asia & Pacific Central Asia Arab States South & West Asia Sub-Saharan Africa WORLD 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1995 2011
Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio, 2011 Post-Confucian systems UNESCO Institute for Statistics & Taiwan Ministry of Education South Korea Taiwan (2010) Macau SAR Hong Kong SAR Japan China Vietnam Singapore world India 24 24 Data not available 30 23 60 60 64 84 101 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Asian middle class 2009-2030 (millions) Source of extrapolation: European Union Institute for Strategic Studies 4000 3000 3228 2000 1000 0 525 1740 2009 2020 2030 A middle class person is defined as someone living on USD $10-100 per day PPP
Economic demand
Social demand
Marketisation and HPS
Quasi-markets
Stratification in HPS
Bifurcation
Cost pressures and positional competition drive stratification
Social demand varies in time, place and form
Different states, different political cultures, different educational cultures
Journal papers per year, 1995-2011 Total world output US National Science Foundation data 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 827,705 799,599 783,359 788,728 758,603 740,417 710,294 688,691 661,790 630,452 629,386 638,381 602,430 610,203 581,760 588,488 564,645 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Three leading producers of science: journal papers per year, 1997-2011 Source: US National Science Foundation data, 2014 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 USA UK China
51 countries with 1000 journal papers p.a. US National Science Foundation data for 2011 ANGLO- SPHERE EUROPE EU NATIONS EUROPE NON-EU ASIA LATIN AMERICA Australia Austria Italy Croatia* China Argentina Canada Belgium Netherlands Norway India Brazil N. Zealand Czech Rep. Poland Russia Japan Chile* UK Denmark Portugal* Serbia* Malaysia* Mexico USA Finland Romania* Switzerland Pakistan* M.EAST /AF France Slovakia Turkey Singapore Egypt Germany Slovenia* Ukraine South Korea Iran* Greece Sweden Taiwan Israel Hungary Spain Thailand* Saudi Arab.* Ireland Sweden Sth. Africa *countries that reached the annual level of 1000 journal papers after 1995 (12 out of 51) Tunisia*
World-Class Universities
Fast growing Post-Confucian systems journal papers per year, 1997-2011 Source: US National Science Foundation data, 2014
Shanghai ARWU top 500 universities Chinese systems, 2005 & 2013 2005 2013 China mainland 8 28 Hong Kong SAR 5 5 Taiwan China 5 9 total 18 42
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Some other fast growing systems: journal papers per year, 1997-2011 Source: US National Science Foundation data, 2014 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Brazil Iran Portugal Ireland Malaysia
Globalisation, HPS and stratification
Imagining the global market
Top ten school systems OECD PISA 2012 (mean student scores, Post Confucian education systems in yellow) Reading Mathematics Science Shanghai China 570 Shanghai China 613 Shanghai China 580 Hong Kong SAR 545 Singapore 573 Hong Kong SAR 555 Singapore 542 Hong Kong SAR 561 Singapore 551 Japan 538 Taiwan 560 Japan 547 South Korea 536 South Korea 554 Finland 545 Finland 524 Macao SAR 538 Estonia 541 Taiwan 523 Japan 536 South Korea 538 Canada 523 Liechtenstein 535 Vietnam 528 Ireland 523 Switzerland 531 Poland 526 Poland 518 Netherlands 523 Liechtenstein 525 Vietnam 508 Vietnam 511 Canada 525 UKA 499 UK 494 UK 514 USA 498 USA 481 USA 497
Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities top 200, 2013 China, 5 Hong Kong, 2 other Asia, 3 Japan, 9 La n America, 3 Israel, 4 Saudi Arabia, 1 other Europe, 4 Denmark, 3 Italy, 4 Belgium, 4 Sweden, 5 USA, 85 Switzerland, 6 Netherlands, 8 France, 8 Germany, 14 Australia, 7 Canada, 8 UK, 19
MOOCs
Students enrolled outside their country of citizenship, millions, 1975-2011 OECD data, 2013
4.3 million foreign tertiary students, 2011: world market shares (OECD data) other non-oecd, 15% other OECD, 8% Belgium, 1% Netherlands, 1% Switzerland, 1% Korea, 2% South Africa, 2% Austria, 2% Italy, 2% New Zealand, 2% USA, 17% UK, 13% Australia, 6% Germany, 6% China, 2% Spain, 3% Russia, 4% Canada, 5% Japan, 4% France, 6%
Regional origins of foreign students, 2011 OECD data 2013
Leiden University ranking top 12 largest number of journal papers in 2008-2011 University total papers 2008-11 normalised citations per paper world av =1.00 papers in top 10% of research field, field-normalised citations 1 Harvard U USA 29,812 1.80 6492 21.8% 2 U Toronto CANADA 18,114 1.23 2410 13.3% 3 U Michigan USA 15,928 1.39 2501 15.7% 4 U Tokyo JAPAN 14,175 0.93 1274 9.0% 5 U California (LA) USA 13,861 1.52 2370 17.1% 6 Johns Hopkins U USA 13,620 1.52 2173 16.0% 7 U Washington, Seattle USA 12,883 1.48 2198 17.1% 8 Stanford U USA 12,841 1.92 2826 22.0% 9 U Oxford UK 12,208 1.44 2013 16.5% 10 U Pennsylvania USA 12,007 1.50 2100 17.5% 11 U Cambridge UK 11,742 1.50 2009 17.1% 12 U Sao Paulo BRAZIL 11,564 0.68 619 5.4%
Public good through higher education