PRAIRIE METROPOLIS CENTRE WINNIPEG WORKSHOPS & RESEARCH SYMPOSIUM Rural Manitoba Housing Challenge: Immigrants & Temporary Foreign Workers in Rural MB Monday, September 29 th, 2008 Presenter: John Osborne Senior Research Assistant to the Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Adaptation
Introduction (Quant. Data & Key Informant Interview Mix) 1. Basic Facts on Rural Immigration in MB 2. Two Types of Newcomer in Rural MB: Mennonite / Germanic Temporary Foreign Workers (TFWs) 3. Rural MB Housing Market Overview 4. Housing Case Studies: Germanic/Mennonite Immigrants: Steinbach & Winkler TFWs: Brandon & Neepawa
Part 1: MB Immigration Basics
What Does Immigration Mean to MB? Estimated Manitoba Population Change Excluding Net International Migration 1996-2006 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 # of Persons 2,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2,000-4,000-6,000 Data Source: Prov MB Estimated Manitoba Population Change Years Estimated Manitoba Population Change Excluding Net International Migration
Where Are They Going? Manitoba International Immigration Totals (1998-2007) 12,000 10,000 24 % 24 % # of Immigrants 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 % = Rural Proportion of Total 24 % 19 % 18 % 21 % 19 % 21 % 21 % 24 % 7,641 6,134 5,891 5,120 3,506 3,704 3,782 2,908 2,423 2,410 2,626 1,963 1,372 1,536 570 794 1,078 884 839 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year 8,315 Manitoba Outside of Winnipeg CMA Winnipeg CMA Data Source: Prov MB
MB Rural Immigration Basics Demographic Stability Population Decline Aging Economic Development Revitalize Diversify Demand for Skilled Workers And unskilled labour
What Does Immigration Mean to Rural MB? Estimated Manitoba Non-CMA Population Change Excluding Net International Migration 1996/97-2006/07 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 # of Persons 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 '96-'97 '97-'98 '98-'99 '99-'00 '00-'01 '01-'02 '02-'03 '03-'04 '04-'05 '05-'06 '06-'07-1,000 Years Estimated Manitoba Non-CMA Population Change Estimated Manitoba Non-CMA Population Change Excluding Net International Migration Data Source: Prov MB
Winnipeg dominates Southeast South Central Brandon Interlake Resource Centres Does NOT include TFWs
MB Recent Immigration Destination Manitoba Immigration Destinations by Community: 2002-2006 1% 1% 1% 7% 4% 2% Rural Top 5 Rural Top 5 7% Winnipeg Winkler Steinbach 2002-2006 1. Winkler 2007 1. Winkler Brandon Morden Ranked 6-10 Ranked 11-17 2. Steinbach 3. Brandon 4. Morden 2. Brandon 3. Steinbach 4. Morden All Other Destinations 5. Thompson 5. Rheinland 77% Brandon: 172 in 2006 641 in 2007 (32 countries) Trend: Top 10 are increasing their share of the pie Data Source: Prov MB
New Immigration Hubs on the Horizon? Examples: Gimli/Hecla resort 300 employees? Neepawa 200 TFWs Transition? TFW to Immigrant?
Part 2: Types of Rural MB Newcomers
Rural MB Newcomers Many types in Rural MB Two groups of interest: 1. Germanic / Mennonite 2. Temporary Foreign Workers (TFWs)
Germanic / Mennonite Newcomers Cultural ties - Mennonite heritage Booming in Southeast & South Central Some throughout MB Variety of immigrant classes PNP (Provincial Nominee Program) Even Canadian citizens Bring needed skilled labour Feeds booming manufacturing and construction industries Some Unskilled
Temporary Foreign Worker Program Demand for labour by employers Manufacturing, hog processing, etc. TWO year work permits Manitoba actively promotes TFWs to move into PNP TFWs can apply to PNP after 6 months 12 18 months: apply for Landed Immigrant Status T = Temporary? Retention attempts
Initial TFW Settlement Needs Initial Needs: Housing Transition Affordable RENTAL Employer is responsible for initial shelter provision Multiple Needs: Orientation Language Skills (EAL) Health Care Community Services/Supports Etc.
Changing TFW Settlement Needs TFW family reunification: Spouse & children Needs: Skills Training Education / Daycare Etc. Different housing needed Larger family units needed Affordability & availability Move to PNP & longer term stay in community? Home ownership = Retention? Is this an option in rural markets?
Part 3: Rural MB Housing Market
Rural MB Housing Market Overview Shelter costs rising Few listings word of mouth Entry level Rents rising Energy costs / Renovation needed Vacancy Rates low Housing Starts servicing mid to high end of market (usually for ownership) What about affordable rental?
MB Housing Starts Manitoba Housing Starts (1997-2007) 7,000 6,000 5,000 # of Housing Starts 4,000 3,000 1,821 2,430 2,489 2,586 2,777 3,371 2,000 1,518 1,575 1,772 1,317 1,473 1,000 1,094 1,320 1,361 1,243 1,490 1,796 1,776 1,951 2,145 2,251 2,367 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Manitoba without Winnipeg CMA Winnipeg CMA Data Source: CMHC
Rental Housing Starts Intended Rental Brandon CA Portage CA Rural MB (Population < 10,000) 2007 Rental Starts 2007 Rental as Proportion of Total 2007 Housing Starts (as %) 2006 Rental Starts 2006 Rental as Proportion of Total 2006 Housing Starts (as %) 6 0 12 2.8 0.0 0.6 24 0 61 10.5 0.0 3.3 Data Source: CMHC
CA Rental Market Vacancy Rate Brandon CA Portage CA Thompson CA 2007 - Overall Market 0.2 6.4 2.4 2006 - Overall Market 0.9 6.8 8.2 2007-2 Bedroom Apartments 0.2 5.6 0.1 2006-2 Bedroom Apartments 0.6 4.8 1.1 Brandon extremely tight Portage vacancies are in very poor condition Key informants indicate need for better rental units Thompson vacancies low in 2 bedrooms & 1 bedroom drop Data Source: CMHC
Rural Centre Housing Market Snapshots Steinbach & Winkler Low rental vacancy rates Some smaller affordable housing starts there On smaller lots Some condos Neepawa Virtually no rental available Shelter costs modest but have risen Rural MB in General housing for attracting/retaining Professionals & Labour
Part 4: Newcomer Case Studies
German / Mennonite SE & SC Common cultural thread & integration Germans not homogenous Russia, Germany, South America Come with various assets 62 flags in Winkler: non-german included Newcomers & Rental Some rent in Urban Areas when arrive Transition rent before Buy / Build Some doubling up when arrive
Steinbach/Hanover & Winkler/Stanley: Fastest Growth Rates in Manitoba Population boom Growth extends to RMs Winkler/Morden RM of Stanley Steinbach RM of Hanover Census Populations 2006 2001 2001 2006 Change # % Steinbach 11,066 9,227 1,839 19.9 RM of Hanover 11,871 10,789 1,082 10.0 Winkler 9,106 7,943 1,163 14.6 RM of Stanley 6,367 5,122 1,245 24.3 Some very large families Can be 5 to 12 + children per family
Winkler RM of Stanley Demand for acreages by newcomers Garden plot with a few livestock Self-sufficiency Little House on the Prairie Dream Transportation issues? Isolation of spouse? Self-building in RMs Large family = Need Large home Multiple families build house put up fast Meeting building codes? Quality?
Winkler RM of Stanley Stanley: Rural residential areas Groups of large lots (even acreages) Ex. Reinfeld 300 houses & Schanzenfeld ~ 5 miles outside of Winkler Fueled by newcomers? Unserviced by urban infrastructure Water quantity / quality issues Issues with septic tanks too close together
TFW: Brandon & Maple Leaf Hog Processing Brandon City ~ 41,500 growing second city of MB Maple Leaf Foods in Brandon Hog Processing 1700 employees 2 nd Shift ~ 60 % TFWs El Salvador, China, Colombia, Mauritius, etc. Visible Minority: 2.5% in 2001 to 10% in 2011? Unskilled Now recruiting in Ukraine Integrate better?
Brandon Housing Market Stress Rental Under 0.5% Vacancy Maple Leaf active in market Securing housing months in advance Arrange meetings between landlord & TFW Some issues with leases Up to 10 TFWs per large house $200 - $250 per head 2 kitchens / 2 bathrooms Conditions? Satisfaction?
Transition from TFW = Retention? Transition of Maple Leaf TFWs to PNP / permanent resident In 2007: 536 applied to PNP 533 were approved 200 in process (as of December 2007) Vast majority DO APPLY 3000+ dependants coming in next 2 to 3 years? Many children < 13 Larger units needed Retention Rate? Private market building at mid high end
Maple Leaf Newcomer Projections for Brandon TFW & TFW Dependents Coming to Brandon 6000 5000 Estimated Number 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Data Source: RDI @ Brandon University Estimated TFW Arrivals Estimated TFW Arrivals PLUS Dependents
Brandon Not All Maple Leaf Not all newcomers = Maple Leaf Westman Immigration Services: 17 new families in June 2007 44 in June 2008 Some: PNP, Refugee, etc. Germany, Korea, Ethiopia, Kenya Booming ethnic food shops
Brandon Affordable Housing Crisis? Crisis Situation Pre-existing Need for Affordable Housing: Stressing Difficult to House & Low Income Too many competing for too few units Rounds Report (2007): 300 Immediate entry-level 450 650 NEW rental units within 5 years 1,400 long-term for both Progress? Some pilot projects Ex. Massey Building
Neepawa Hytek Neepawa: Slow Growth ~3300 Hytek Hog Processing 200 TFWs coming 55 as of Mid-September Korea & Philippines When families come? Employee devoted to recruitment & arranging housing
Neepawa Few housing starts most at high end Where will we put them? Hytek renting hotels Neepawa, Gladstone, etc. Transition to private market rental Nothing available Post-transition option? Old personal care home Convert to apartments costs $$$
Summary 1. Growing rural immigration & TFWs 2. Housing market is tight Adequate response from private market? 3. Housing markets stressed now Transition / Rental 4. Retention in these communities? Different types of units needed