April 24, 2014 Managing Risk in ASEAN: April 14 Event Over 125 members and guests attended this event at the Yale Club that featured keynote remarks by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, Hon. Scot Marciel, Finance Minister, Dr. Chatib Basri, and Governor of Bank Indonesia, Agus Martowardojo. The event was organized in conjunction with AICC's strategic partner, US-ASEAN Business Council; cooperating organizations included BKPM (Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board) and NYSSA. Some highlights were: * Ambassador Marciel emphasized the strong relations between the US and ASEAN: the new security arrangement with the Philippines, comprehensive partnership with Indonesia, opening of Myanmar, the benefits of Trans Pacific Partnership pact (currently only ASEAN members Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia are participating in the negotiations). Developments in Ukraine, he added, should not provide a new template for territory grabbing in the region. DAS Scot Marciel * The Governor of Indonesia's Central Bank, Agus Martowardojo, discussed efforts to minimize Indonesia's current account deficit. He noted that since January 1, the rupiah has strengthened, but that BI could make further moves if capital inflows reverse. * Finance Minister Dr. Chatib Basri expected Indonesia to pass a new land law in 2015 to correct flaws in the current one. He noted Indonesia does not have eminent domain authority and that one small landholder can hold up major infrastructure projects. He maintained sufficient capital is there to create needed toll roads. * The Deputy Chairman of BKPM, Achmad Kurniadi, said Indonesia would review all of its Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT) with a view renegotiating them, not eliminating them completely.
* According to Shaun Levine (Senior Asia Analyst, Eurasia Group): "Despite the increased optimism of dramatic political and economic changes under a possible Joko Widodo presidency, expectations of wide-scale reforms should be tempered. While the possibility of Joko winning the presidency remain high, his lack of a political platform (he is not a party founder or chairperson) and the necessity of needing to work with other political parties in a unwieldy coalition could stall broader reforms. Instead of high expectations of such reforms, it is more likely changes will be made incrementally, and could include increased investments into infrastructure and education, a more intense anti-corruption effort and improving the bureaucracy. These changes will be beneficial for the investment environment, but will be delivered in a more structured, slower pace than what is expected from markets." (l-r) BI Governor Martowardojo, Allan Harari, Finance Minister Basri, BKPM's Kurniadi, Ian Lifshitz (APP) BI Governor Agus Martowardojo * Ian Lifshitz (Director of Sustainability for Asia Pulp and Paper) stated that from a commercial stand-point, Indonesia is suffering from a perception issue. Unbeknownst to many North American companies and investors, in Indonesia the government, industry and NGOs are working together to develop some of the toughest environmental and sustainable standards around the world. Lifshitz reiterated that companies should feel confident doing business in either Indonesia and or with Indonesian companies. In fact, Indonesian companies have begun to take a leadership role in terms sustainability evidenced by the zero-deforestation policies of major producers in the paper, pulp and palm industries and the environmental impact provisions now being added to contracts. Lifshitz maintained that Indonesia is not just a leader economically in ASEAN, but the leader in sustainability as well.
* William Liddle (Professor, Ohio State) believes the April 9th Parliamentary election was free and fair, conducted almost without blemish. Its not entirely clear yet why PDI-P did not do as well as the polls predicted but that in any event PDIP's 19% was about 5% higher than had been projected a month or so earlier. Nonetheless, the general pattern is one of fragmentation, since 10 parties (one more than last time) received enough votes to be represented in the 2014-2019 Parliament. Liddle also commented: "At the same time, we should recognize a perhaps embryonic pattern of a ruling party versus an opposition party, in the form of PDIP versus Partai Demokrat, the party of President Yudhyoyono. PDIP declared itself an Finance Minister Chatib Basri opposition party ten years ago and indeed it has lived up to that role, never participating in a Yudhoyono cabinet. If this pattern continues, it will be healthy for the consolidation of Indonesian democracy." The election, according to Liddle, indicates a continuing coalition government; "Indonesia is not likely to approximate the two party alteration in power of classic democratic theory any time soon." * Donald Weatherbee (Emeritus Professor, University of South Car olina) believes Thailand has become the "sickman" of Southeast Asia and a drag on the ASEAN Community building project. Once a Southeast Asian "little tiger" economy, 8 years of political instability and now a near total collapse of the Yingluck Shinawatra government has driven the country to the edge of a political/economic cliff. The 2.5 percent projection for Thai economic growth in 2014 is less than half of its ASEAN partners. FDI - as much as $5 billion over the next three - years is being (l-r) Amb. Scot Marciel, Shaun Levine(Eurasia Group), Wayne Forrest(AICC), William Liddle, Donald Weatherbee diverted to Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Myanmar. Disinvestment from Thailand may approach $ 1 billion this fiscal year. Even as the economy shudders,
the radical wings of the opposing political forces of the yellow shirts (antigovernment) and the red shirts (pro-government) are arming themselves for a political Armageddon. No peaceful resolution seems imminent. If the military should step in by coup, it would seriously complicate U.S - Thai relations. Only China would be a winner. * Sandy Wolfson, (Head of Global Country Risk Management, Citi) characterized the financial systems of ASEAN countries prior to and after the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis as "night and day" in terms of their underlying strengths (strong banking systems, solid public finances, technocratic central banks, etc.) "They have the resiliency to to meet global shocks without crisis. That said, they have made less progress with some of the structural issues - e.g., the business environment and investment climate. And they shouldn't assume that they (l-r) Alex Feldman(USABC), Tom Byrne(Moody's), Dane Chamorro(Control Risks), Dan McConvey(Rossport), Sandy Wolfson(Citi) are immune to shocks - after all, Indonesia was one of the "Fragile 5" countries. Also, the impact of domestic political developments shouldn't be underestimated, notably in Thailand where the political stalemate is having an impact on the economy already. But on balance, from a country risk perspective, ASEAN is one of the more attractive regions globally, and we generally have a constructive outlook." * Daniel McConvey (CEO, Rossport Investments), an investor in Indonesia, Thailand, PNG and other ASEAN mineral projects, noted that Indonesia's contract of work (COW) system worked very well (note: a 2009 law significantly changed the model for new mining investments) to channel capital into projects with a long payback period and could be a model for Myanmar. He can understand Indonesia's move to capture value by banning raw nickel laterite and bauxite exports, but said that banning copper/gold concentrates adds only a small fraction of value. Indonesia, in his opinion, needs to honor its contractual obligations to copper and gold producers allowing them to continue exports, and
also resolve many issues that have arisen after the decentralization of mining rules and regulations. * Dane Charmorro (Managing Director for SEA, Control Risks) believes the ASEAN region continues to be a major opportunity for foreign investors. The rising consumer class, the population demographics and the continued pace of economic growth, particularly in certain ASEAN countries, translate into a significant investment opportunities across a variety of sectors, and Control Risks has observed that there are many new consumer brands moving into the region. While infrastructure and corruption continue to be challenges for investors, Control Risks would cite three other issues as equally high priority challenges for business: acquisition of land in countries with no land registries; rising demands on business from organized labor, particularly in countries which have very little unemployment; and transparency. As companies, particularly American ones, plan and manage their business operations, it is critical that they understand who they are doing business with, and what they expect government policies to be, not just next week, but in the months and years ahead. "Managing Risk in ASEAN" was sponsored by AIG, APP, BKPM, Newmont, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Control Risks, Equinox Partners, ACE, and KPMG Electoral Developments First time party NasDem has agreed to support PDI-P, thereby insuring Jakarta Governor Jokowi's nomination for President whether or not the final vote count in the April 9 parliamentary election (due May 10) reaches 20% or not. (PDI -P stood at 19.4% in initial quick counts). None of the other leading Presidential candidates has yet to form an "enabling coalition". Gerinda (the party of Prabowo) thought it had a deal with PPP (one of the three allowed parties in the Suharto era) but that turned out not to be the case. Partai Demokrat has flirted with supporting Jokowi but remarks of President Yudhoyono seemed to set a different course. Golkar (the institutional party of the Suharto years) continues its work to form a coalition to enable businessman Aburizal Bakrie's nomination while one of its members, former Vice President Kalla, is strongly being considered as a running mate for Jokowi. This would be a bit of deja vus as Kalla brought voters and experience to SBY's initial run for the Presidency in 2004. Meanwhile, Jokowi told TEMPO news he won't bargain on a Vice President nomination or ministerial posts: "We are open to all parties who want to work
with us, with the condition that they share the same platform with us and take the same future steps with us. Otherwise, it would be difficult to work together. We must be open: cooperation yes, sharing [ministerial] posts, no." The degree of Jokowi's "independence" could be the foremost issue going forward and will bear close attention. Ukraine and Indonesia: GSP The Obama Administration has noted that one economic benefit (which would accrue to Indonesia) that could be extended to Ukraine is GSP (generalized system of preferences). The renewal of this trade benefit (lowered tariffs on manufactured products) have been stalled for several years. GSP generally has bipartisan support but currently lacks the appropriate legislative vehicle to bring it forward. But that could change as the crisis with Ukraine develops. (background information courtesy of White & Case LLP).