2008Hispanic RegisteredVotersSurvey June2008
2008 Hispanic Registered Voters Survey Report Prepared By: William E. Wright, Ph.D. June 2008 AARP Knowledge Management 601 E Street NW Washington, DC 20049 http://research.aarp.org Reprinting with Permission
AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization that helps people 50+ have independence, choice and control in ways that are beneficial and affordable to them and society as a whole. We produce AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; AARP Segunda Juventud, our bimonthly magazine in Spanish and English; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for 50+ educators; and our website, www.aarp.org. AARP Foundation is our affiliated charity that provides security, protection, and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors, and sponsors. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Jeff Love for his assistance with questionnaire development and Chuck Rainville for technical assistance.. For additional information, please contact Gene Wright (wwright @aarp.org) or call him at 202-434-6278.
2008 Hispanic Registered Voters Survey Objective. The objective of this survey is to ascertain the views of a representative sample of Hispanic registered voters, ages 18 and over, to election participation, problems facing the country, and role of Hispanic/Latino voters in the 2008 presidential election. Method. The survey reported on here was conducted for AARP by Woelfel Research, Inc., an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from May 29 June 5, 2008 among a nationally representative sample of 600 Hispanic respondents age 18 and older who are registered voters. More information about the methodology of this survey may be found in the appendix. Sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 4 percentage points. A tabulated questionnaire is also appended. AARP is a non-partisan organization: It does not contribute to political campaigns nor does it endorse any candidates for public office. Key Findings The Likely Role of Hispanics in the 2008 Presidential Election. A clear majority (54) of Hispanic self-identified registered voters interviewed say that Hispanic/Latino voters will play a larger role than in past years in deciding the 2008 presidential election. This view is more pronounced among older Hispanic voters 45 and older (62) than among those ages 18-44 (53), among those with a college education (64), those with annual household incomes of $75,000 or more (63), self-identified Democrats (64), and moderates (64). One-third of respondents say the role of Hispanic voters will be no different in this year's presidential election than it was in the past. This view is held more frequently by those ages 18-44 (38). Very few (5) contend that Hispanic voters will play a lesser role. Nearly two-thirds (63) believe that Hispanic voters will be more likely to vote in the November 2008 elections than they have in the past, 3 in 10 think they will be about the same amount, and only 2 percent think Hispanics will be less likely to vote this year. Their Likelihood of Voting. A large majority (82 percent) of the survey respondents say they are almost certain to vote in the November 2008 presidential election. Only 4 percent say they will not vote and 13 percent say they are more or less likely to vote. Hispanic registered voters ages 45-64 are significantly almost certain to vote in November (88), compared to those ages 18-44 (79). There are no significant gender differences. Similar to general voter trends, Hispanic registered voters who have the highest levels of formal education (college graduates or more--87), annual family incomes of $75,000 or more (92), and those who identify themselves as Republicans (89) say they are almost certain to vote in November. Their Voting Decision. Nearly 6 in 10 (59) Hispanic registered voters indicate that they have already decided whom to vote for, whereas 4 in 10 are still undecided. More of the college educated and higher income Hispanics have already decided, and there is no significant difference in this regard between self-identified Republicans and Democrats. Significantly more self-identified liberals (73) indicate they have already made a presidential voting decision. There are no significant differences in voting decision by gender.
More undecided registered Hispanic voters are found among those ages 65+ (45), those with high school or less education (49), conservatives (39), and moderates (43). Their Strength of Candidate Support. Three-quarters of the registered Hispanic voters support for their preferred presidential candidate strongly, including 57 percent who are very strong in their support. Strong supporters are disproportionately higher income (83), Democrats (83), and liberals (85). Their Partisanship. More than one-half (54) of the registered Hispanic voters surveyed consider themselves Democrats; 20 percent each consider themselves Republicans and Independents. Hispanic Voters Believe the Country is Seriously Off on the Wrong Track. Almost 8 in 10 (79) of the registered Hispanic voters believe that the country is seriously off on the wrong track, whereas only 13 percent think things in this country are going in the right direction. Wrong Track views are most prevalent among those ages 45-64 (81), Democrats (86), Independents (82), moderates (82) and liberals (80). In contrast, Right Direction views are disproportionately found among Republicans (29) and conservatives (23), although sizable majorities of these two groups believe that the country has seriously gotten off on the wrong track. The Most Important Issue Facing The Country Today. Responses to an open-ended question about the most important single issue facing the country today reveal that only two issues dominate among registered Hispanic voters: the economy and jobs (41) and The War generally or specifically The War in Iraq (18). No other single issue was mentioned by more than 3 percent: immigration (3) health care (2). Somewhat surprisingly, the economy/jobs issue was most often cited by college educated (50) and high income (49) Hispanic voters. Moreover, a majority (57) of Hispanic voters believe that the presidential candidates are not paying enough attention to their most important issue. This belief is most prevalent among Hispanic voters ages 18-44 (59), those currently employed (61), the married (61) and Independents (68). Optimism About Economic Prospects for Hispanic Children. Nearly two-thirds (64) of registered Hispanic voters are confident that Hispanic children growing up now in the United States will have better jobs and more incomes that they themselves have now. The only significant difference is that this view is most strongly held by Republican Hispanics (77). Implications This national pre-election survey of registered Hispanics demonstrates that they believe that Hispanic voters will play a greater role in the 2008 presidential election than they have in the past. At this point in the campaign, 4 in 10 Hispanic voters have not yet decided whom they would like to vote for, and three-quarters of those who have decided are strongly supportive of their preferred candidate. Among possible motivational factors of an increased role for Hispanics in this presidential election are the widely held view that the country has gotten seriously off on the wrong track in general, and the state of the economy and jobs in particular. Jobs and the economy is the dominant issue for Hispanic voters at this point in the presidential campaign, and Hispanic voters say that the presidential candidates are not paying enough attention to their most important issue.
Methodology Segunda Survey Prepared by Woelfel Research, Inc. for AARP June, 2008 SUMMARY The AARP Segunda survey obtained telephone interviews with a sample of 600 Hispanic respondents aged 18 and older who were registered voters. The results from the study were weighted by age and gender. The margin of sampling error for the sample of 600 is ±4.0. The interviews were conducted From May 29, 2008 to June 5, 2008. Details on the design and execution of the survey are discussed below. DESIGN AND DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURES Sample Design The sample of 18+ Hispanics who were registered voters was selected across the entire United States from a list of households targeted specifically by age and ethnicity. The household list was developed by compiling records from available sources such as motor vehicle records. The list was provided by Accudata, Inc. Respondents were screened to insure that they were registered voters. Questionnaire Development and Testing The questionnaire was developed by AARP staff. The questionnaire was developed in English only and not translated into Spanish. In order to improve the quality of the data, the questionnaire was pretested with a small number of respondents. The pretest interviews were monitored by WRI and AARP staff and conducted using experienced interviewers who could best judge the quality of the answers given and the degree to which respondents understood the questions. Contact Procedures Sample was released for interviewing in replicates, which are representative subsamples of the larger sample. Using replicates to control the release of sample ensures that complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample. It also ensures that the geographic distribution of numbers called is appropriate. Calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chance of making contact with potential respondents. WEIGHTING The sample was weighted by age and gender. The table below contains information about the weighting. The column labeled Population shows the actual age/sex distribution for registered Hispanic voters in the United States. The column labeled Sample shows the age/sex distribution of the sample. The column labeled Weighted
Sample shows the age/sex distribution in the sample after the weights were applied. Those respondents who did not provide their age were given a weight of 1. The Weighted Sample Distribution does not match the Population Distribution exactly because of the missing data for age. Population* Sample Weighted Sample Male 18-44 27.267 14.333 26.800 45-64 14.246 18.000 14.000 65+ 5.318 11.000 5.167 Not Provided 0.500 0.500 Female 18-44 29.706 17.167 29.167 45-64 16.061 23.000 15.667 65+ 7.402 14.833 7.333 Not Provided 1.167 1.167 *Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2004. RESPONSE RATE/COOPERATION RATE/REFUSAL RATE The response rate for this study measured using AAPOR s response rate 3 method. The cooperation rate was measured using AAPOR s cooperation rate 3 method. The refusal rate was measured using AAPOR s refusal rate 3 method. The table below contains these rates. Response Rate Cooperation Rate Refusal Rate 24 92 7 Source: AAPOR Outcome Rate Calculator Version 2.1 May 2003
N=600, Sampling Error =+/-4.0 ANNOTATED VERSION Hello, this is calling from Woelfel Research, Inc., a national opinion research firm. We are not telemarketers and are not trying to sell you anything. We would like to find out your opinions on some important issues about the United States economy. Your views are important and we would greatly appreciate your participation. All your responses will be kept entirely confidential. 1. First, are you registered to vote at this address or like many people are you not able to register to vote? 1) Yes 2) No...TERMINATE 2. Just to make sure we have a representative sample, could you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking background? 1) Yes 2) No...TERMINATE 3. Many people are busy and don t get a chance to vote in every election. What would you say the chances are that you will vote in the general election for President in the November election -- are you almost certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or do you not think you will vote? 1) Almost certain 82 2) Probably 7 3) 50-50 6 4) Will not vote 4 5) (Don't know) 1
4. Thinking about how things are going in the country. Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? [IF CHOICE MADE] Do you feel strongly or somewhat strongly about that? 1) Right direction/strongly 5 2) Right direction/somewhat 8 3) (UNSURE) 8 4) Wrong track/somewhat 18 5) Wrong track/strongly 61 5. How confident are you that Hispanic/Latino children growing up now in the United States will have better jobs and make more money than you? 1) Very confident 26 2) Somewhat confident 38 3) Not too confident 19 4) Not confident at all 11 5) Don t know 6
6. What would you say is the most important issue facing the country today? (DO NOT READ, JUST USE THE CODE LIST) abortion - balance the budget <0.5 budget cuts <0.5 campaign finance reform - crime <0.5 corruption 1 discrimination/bigotry/racism - drugs <0.5 economy/jobs 41 education 5 the environment 1 guns/gun violence need for gun control - guns too much regulation - healthcare 2 homelessness - housing <0.5 immigration 3 Iraq 8 morality/family values <0.5 Medicare <0.5 pension reform - politics as usual 1 prescription drugs <0.5 protecting Social Security <0.5 taxes 1 teen violence - terrorism 1 Retirement <0.5 War (not specific to war in Iraq) 10 National security/homeland security 1 Other SPECIFY 20 Don t know DO NOT READ 5 7. How much are the presidential candidates paying attention to that issue? 1) They are paying enough attention 18 2) They are paying the right amount of attention 18 3) They are not paying enough attention 57 4) Don t know 8
8. If the presidential election were held tomorrow, which candidate would you vote for, or are you undecided? 1) John McCain, Barack Obama, or Hillary 59 Clinton (Accept any of the three names) 2) Some other candidate 1 3) Don t know 40 9. [If 1 or 2 on Question 8] Using a scale of 1-7 where 1 means your support for a presidential candidate is not very strong and 7 means your support is very strong, how strongly would you say you support that candidate? Base: Total respondents N=361 1) 1 Not very strong 2 2) 2 <0.5 3) 3 2 4) 4 5 5) 5 15 6) 6 18 7) 7 Very strong 57 8) Don t know 2 10. Comparing the upcoming 2008 Presidential election to Presidential elections of the past, do you feel Hispanics/Latinos will play a larger role, a lesser role or their role will be no different than past years in deciding the 2008 election? 1) Larger role 56 2) Lesser role 5 3) Role no different 33 4) Don't know 5 11. And thinking about Hispanics/Latino voters and the upcoming election in November, do you think they will be more likely to vote than they have in the past, less likely, or will they vote at about the same rate? 1) More likely 63 2) Less likely 2 3) About the same amount 31 4) Don't know 4
12. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 1) A Republican 20 2) A Democrat 54 3) An Independent 21 4) Other [DO NOT READ] 2 5) Don t know [DO NOT READ] 2 6) Refused [DO NOT READ] 1 (SCRAMBLE CODES 1-3) 13. Generally speaking, would you characterize your political views as being...? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 1) Conservative 28 2) Moderate 44 3) Liberal 21 4) None of the Above [DO NOT READ] 1 5) Don t know [DO NOT READ] 4 6) Refused [DO NOT READ] 1 14. What is your age as of your last birthday? [RECORD IN YEARS] 1) 18 to 24 8 2) 25 to 34 16 3) 35 to 44 31 4) 45 to 59 8 5) 50-64 22 6) 65+ 13 7) Refused 2
15. What is your marital status? Are you currently. 1) Married, 59 2) Divorced, 8 3) Separated, 2 4) Widowed, 5 5) Or have you never been married? 24 6) Living with partner [DO NOT READ] 1 7) Don't know [DO NOT READ] <0.5 8) Refused [DO NOT READ] 1 16. What is the highest level of education you have completed? [READ LIST] 1) Less than high school 7 2) High school graduate or equivalent 22 3) Some college or technical training beyond high school 30 4) College graduate 27 5) Or, Post-graduate or professional degree 12 6) Don't know [DO NOT READ] 1 7) Refused [DO NOT READ] <0.5 17. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? Are you currently.[read LIST] 1) Employed full-time 53 2) Employed part-time 10 3) Retired and not working 15 4) Unemployed 6 5) Homemaker 6 6) Disabled 4 7) Student 2 8) Or something else [Specify: ] 3 9) Don t Know [DO NOT READ] - 10) Refused [DO NOT READ] 1
18. For statistical purposes only, please stop me when I get to the category That includes your household s income before taxes in 2007. Was it [READ LIST] 1) Less than $10,000 7 2) $10,000 but less than $20,000 9 3) $20,000 but less than $30,000 11 4) $30,000 but less than $40,000 10 5) $40,000 but less than $50,000 10 6) $50,000 but less than $75,000 17 7) $75,000 but less than $100,000 13 8) $100,000 or more 12 9) Don't know [DO NOT READ] 3 10) Refused [DO NOT READ] 9 19. Are you or your spouse a member of A-A-R-P? Base: 50+ Respondents N=218 1) Yes 43 2) No 56 3) Don't know 1 4) Refused 1 20. Are you male or female? 1) Male 47 2) Female 53