Ontario Vote Intention and Leadership Ratings Tories lead by 4 and Have Most Committed Voters McGuinty most likely seen as Calm Under Pressure while Horwath is most likely to be viewed as Friendly Abacus Data Ontario Poll: September 23-25, 2011, n=1,201 online survey from representative panel of Ontarians www.abacusdata.ca Twitter.com/abacusdataca
Abacus Data: Not your average pollster Abacus Data Inc. is Canada s newest player in the public opinion and marketing research industry. Whether it s telephone or online surveys, focus groups, one-on-one interviews, or secondary data analysis, the team at Abacus Data conducts public opinion, marketing, or stakeholder research that provides strategic insight to our clients. What sets the team at Abacus Data apart is its fresh perspective on politics, business, and consumer behaviour and a commitment to its clients. Abacus Data offers its clients a comprehensive research tool kit that includes: Custom quantitative studies Opinion leader/decision maker consultations The Vertex Panel (www.vertexpanel.ca) Omnibus surveys Focus groups Informal discussions Intercept studies One-on-one interviews Custom community panel creation and management Secondary data analysis Dr. David Coletto Abacus Data s CEO David has seven years experience listening and interpreting what voters, consumers, and opinion leaders want and expect from government, business, and the non-profit sectors. He has worked with some of Canada s largest corporations and some of its smallest issue and advocacy groups. He received his PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary where he taught Research Methods to undergraduate students. David is the Pollster for Sun News and a Visiting Fellow at the Arthur Kroeger College of Public Affairs. He is frequently called upon by news media for his unique perspective on public affairs, millennials, corporate citizenship, and political party finance. He co-authored a chapter in the recently released book Money, Politics and Democracy (eds Young and Jansen, UBC Press 2011).
Methodology From September 23 to 25, 2011Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,201 randomly selected Canadian adults from an online panel of Ontarians. The margin of error which measures sampling variability is comparable to +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20. Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, education, and past federal vote using census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Ontario results from the 2007 General Election. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Two ways of measuring vote intention For Wave 2 of our Ontario research, we asked question from earlier in the campaign on the likelihood of voting for the main political parties as well as the traditional vote intention question. The intention of the likelihood to vote question is to measure the potential movement from one party to another and the choices voters are considering. In this report, the traditional ballot question reports data from decided and leaning voters and is comparable to other vote intention questions released by other polling firms. Page 6 compares the traditional question with the likelihood to vote (new question). What is of most interest on that page is the distribution of no preference voters on the traditional question (which was asked second). The table below reports the unweighted and weighted distribution by region of Ontario Region Unweighted Count (All Respondents) Weighted Count (All respondents) Eastern Ontario 203 205 Greater Toronto Area (including Simcoe and Hamilton/Niagara) 401 436 Northern Ontario 102 104 Southwestern Ontario 202 215 Metro Toronto 293 231 Total 1,201 1,191
Traditional Ballot Question (Decided Voters, n=966) Q: If the Ontario provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for in your constituency? Green, 6% Another Party, 2% Liberal, 33% NDP, 23% Undecided: 17% Subgroup Analysis PC, 37% Men Women 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+ Liberal 33 32 30 29 34 35 PC 40 34 36 32 34 46 NDP 19 27 24 28 26 16 Green 6 6 8 9 5 2 Another Party 3 1 1 3 1 1 Unweighted counts 605 392 156 247 309 285 Eastern GTA Northern SW Toronto Liberal 29 32 21 29 45 PC 51 37 37 38 22 NDP 15 23 37 24 26 Green 5 6 5 6 6 Another Party - 2-4 1 Unweighted counts 170 335 78 162 252
New Question: Party Most Likely to Vote For (All Voters, n=1,191, weighted) Question : Using the scales below, tell us how likely you are to vote for each of the political parties running candidates in your local constituency during the Ontario election. 0 means you will absolutely NOT vote for the party and 10 means you absolutely will vote for the party. No preference, 27% Liberal, 22% Another Party, 1% Green, 4% NDP, 18% PC, 28% Subgroup Analysis Men Women 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+ Liberal 21 22 14 19 24 27 PC 31 25 27 22 28 35 NDP 14 21 17 20 17 16 Green 4 4 4 7 4 1 Another Party 2 1 4 2 1 - No preference 27 27 35 31 26 20 Unweighted counts 685 473 175 299 364 320 Eastern GTA Northern SW Toronto Liberal 22 20 14 24 28 PC 40 27 26 29 18 NDP 13 16 27 19 19 Green 3 4 3 5 4 Another Party - 2-1 3 No preference 23 31 30 23 28 Unweighted counts 194 393 98 191 282
Traditional Ballot Question (Decided Voters Only) Old vs. New Comparing Ballot Question and Most Likely to Vote Party Most Likely to Vote For (10-point scale, new question) Liberal PC NDP Green Other No Pref. Liberal 97% 1% 2% 5% 33% 36% PC 1% 98% 1% - 20% 26% NDP 1% 1% 97% - 20% 21% Green 1% - - 95% - 9% Other - - - - 27% 7% The table above compares the results of the traditional ballot question with the new likelihood to vote for a party question. It shows that for the most part those who said they were likely to vote for one party over another in the new question also selected that party on the traditional ballot question. What is noteworthy in the table however is the column No Pref which includes respondents who did not rate their likelihood to vote for one party higher than any other. When pushed to make a choice in the traditional ballot question, a plurality of these respondents said they would vote Liberal (36%) followed by the PCs (26%) and the NDP (21%). This suggests that at this point in the campaign, the Liberals are most likely to gain those voters torn between two or more parties.
Absolutely not going to vote for party X Strength of Support for Each Party (All Voters, n=1,191, weighted) Absolutely going to vote for party X Party X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Unlikely to vote for party Could be swayed to vote for party Likely voting for party PC (Wave 1) 50% 23% 27% PC (Wave 2) 47% 27% 27% Liberal (Wave 1) 53% 25% 22% Liberal (Wave 2) 52% 26% 23% NDP (Wave 1) 55% 27% 18% NDP (Wave 2) 50% 32% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Question: Using the scales below, tell us how likely you are to vote for each of the political parties running candidates in your local constituency during the Ontario election. 0 means you will absolutely NOT vote for the party and 10 means you absolutely will vote for the party.
Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people? Very favourable, 9% Very unfavourable, 34% Somewhat favourable, 22% Somewhat unfavourable, 15% Neutral, 20% Subgroup Analysis Men Women Liberal PC NDP Undecided Favourable 33 30 77 12 17 16 Neutral 17 22 15 10 18 40 Unfavourable 50 48 8 78 65 44 Unweighted counts 709 492 335 365 238 204 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+ Toronto GTA East SW North Favourable 33 28 32 32 44 32 24 27 24 Neutral 26 27 18 11 21 19 21 20 16 Unfavourable 41 45 50 57 35 49 55 54 60 Unweighted 180 314 377 330 293 401 203 202 102
PC Leader Tim Hudak Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people? Very unfavourable, 22% Very favourable, 10% Somewhat favourable, 24% Somewhat unfavourable, 18% Neutral, 26% Subgroup Analysis Men Women Liberal PC NDP Undecided Favourable 40 28 12 80 15 20 Neutral 22 31 22 15 25 49 Unfavourable 38 41 67 6 60 31 Unweighted counts 709 492 335 365 238 204 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+ Toronto GTA East SW North Favourable 38 26 32 41 22 37 44 33 31 Neutral 33 38 22 17 33 23 24 24 33 Unfavourable 29 35 45 42 46 40 32 43 35 Unweighted 180 314 377 330 293 401 203 202 102
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people? Somewhat unfavourable, 10% Very unfavourable, 8% Very favourable, 11% Somewhat favourable, 29% Neutral, 42% Subgroup Analysis Men Women Liberal PC NDP Undecided Favourable 39 41 32 26 83 32 Neutral 39 45 46 44 16 60 Unfavourable 22 14 22 30 1 9 Unweighted counts 709 492 335 365 238 204 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+ Toronto GTA East SW North Favourable 42 38 40 41 44 42 33 35 44 Neutral 40 49 43 37 36 38 50 50 42 Unfavourable 17 13 18 22 20 19 17 15 14 Unweighted 180 314 377 330 293 401 203 202 102
Political Party Leader Attributes Question: We are going to list a number of statements that can be used to describe the political leaders in Ontario. Tell us which statement best describes any of the leaders. Attribute Dalton McGuinty Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath None of them Calm under pressure 39 20 16 25 Genuine 14 19 32 36 Down to earth 14 23 39 24 Friendly 19 22 41 18 Intelligent 30 26 20 24 Unpredictable 42 31 7 20 Inexperienced 4 23 40 33
For more information about this study or Abacus Data Inc., please contact: David Coletto, PhD Chief Executive Officer (613) 232-2806 x. 248 david@abacusdata.ca Twitter.com/ColettoD To read our analyses and blog, find us online at www.abacusdata.ca