Understanding AEC : Implication for Thai Business MRS. SRIRAT RASTAPANA Director-General Department of Trade Negotiations April 20, 2011
Outline of Presentation 1. Thailand vs. ASEAN 2. Development on ASEAN Economic Integration 3. Commitments under AEC Blueprints 4. ASEAN for Business 5. Implication for Thai Business 2
Thailand vs. ASEAN Thailand s Major Export Markets Yr. 1992 Yr. 2010 Other 25.5% USA 22.4% Other 33.6% USA 10.9% EU Note 1. AFTA has been established in 1992 and implemented since 1993. 2. Import tariff of ASEAN-6 has been eliminated to 0% since 1 January 2010.
Thailand vs. ASEAN Thailand s Major Import Markets Other 28.0% Yr. 1992 Japan 29.3% Other 36.6% Yr. 2010 Japan 18.7% EU 9.1% China 3.0% ASEAN 13.6% USA 11.7% EU 14.4% China 12.7% ASEAN 16.6% USA 6.3% Note 1. AFTA has been established in 1992 and implemented since 1993. 2. Import tariff of ASEAN-6 has been eliminated to 0% since 1 January 2010. 4
Thailand vs. ASEAN Country Populations ( 000 000) Country GDP (US$ million) Country GDP per Capita (US$) Country Export (US$ million) 1.Indonesia 231,369.5 1. Indonesia 546,527.0 1. Singapore 36,631.2 1.Singapore 269,832.5 2.Philippines 92,226.6 2... Thailand 264,322 322.8 2. Brunei 26,486.0 2. Thailand 152,497 497.2 3.Vietnam 87,228.4 3. Malaysia 193,107.7 3. Malaysia 6,822.0 3. Malaysia 156,890.9 4.Thailand 66,903 903.0 4. Singapore 182,701.7 4. Thailand 3,950 950.8 4. Indonesia 116,510.0 5.Myanmar 59,534.3 5 Philippines 161,357.6 5. Indonesia 2,363.6 5. Vietnam 56,691.0 6.Malaysia 28,306.0 6. Vietnam 96,317.1 6.Philippines 1,749.6 6 Philippines 38,334.7 7.Cambodia 14,957.8 7. Myanmar 24.972.8 7. Vietnam 1,119.6 7. Brunei 7,168.6 8.Lao PDR 5,922.1 8. Brunei 14,146.7 8. Lao PDR 910.5 8. Myanmar 6,341.5 9.Singapore 4,987.6 9. Cambodia 10,368.2 9. Cambodia 692.6 9. Cambodia 4,985.8 10.Brunei 406.2 10. Lao PDR 5,579.2 10.Myanmar 419.5 10. Lao PDR 1,237.2 Source: ASEAN Secretariat, Statistics of Year 2009 5
Country Thailand vs. ASEAN FDI Country (US$ million) Tourists ( 000 000) 1. Singapore 16,256.2 1. Malaysia 23,646.2 2. Vietnam 7,600.0 2. Thailand 14,091 091.0 3. Thailand 4,975.6 3. Singapore 9,681.3 4. Indonesia 4,876.8 4. Indonesia 6,452.0 5. Philippines 1,948.0 5. Vietnam 3,772.3 6. Malaysia 1,381.0 6. Philippines 2,705.0 7. Myanmar 578.6 7. Cambodia 2,161.6 8. Cambodia 530.2 8. Lao PDR 2,008.4 9. Lao PDR 318.6 9. Myanmar 762.5 10. Brunei 176.8 10. Brunei 157.5 Source: ASEAN Secretariat, Statistics of Year 2009 6
WTO Principles of the Trading System Trade without discrimination (MFN, NT) Freer trade Predictability Transparency Fair competition Encouragement on development and economic reform 7
Development of ASEAN Economic Integration ASEAN Community Year 2015 ASEAN Political-Security Community (ASC) ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) 8
Development of ASEAN Economic Integration ASEAN Charter 9
Development of ASEAN Economic Integration FTA Goods Service Investment ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) CEPT Signed in 1992, Implemented in 1993 ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) Implemented in 1995 ASEAN Investment Area (AIA) Implemented in 1998 Cooperation Economic Cooperation Agriculture, IPR, Infrastructure, e-asean, etc 10
ASEAN Economic Community: AEC 1. A Single Market and Production Base 2. A Highly Competitive Economic Region Free flow of goods Free flow of services Free flow of investment Free flow of skilled labor Freer flow of capitals 3. A Region of Equitable Economic Development Narrowing development gap Supporting development of SMEs AEC ป 2558 (2015) e-asean Taxation Competition Policy Intellectual Property Consumer Protection Infrastructure Development 4. A Region fully integrated into global economy Harmonization of economic policies Networking of production and distribution Arrangement of FTA with DPs 11
Commitments Under AEC Blueprint 12
AEC Blueprint Free Flows of Goods 1. Free flows of goods 1.1 Tariff Elimination Reaffirm the commitments under CEPT-AFTA 1 January 2010 ASEAN-6 Import duty 0% 1 January 2015 CLMV Import duty 0% Except for Products in Sensitive List of which import duties may not be 0% but must be < 5% Products in Highly Sensitive List will be excluded from tariff reduction Highly Sensitive Products: rice for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines and sugar from Indonesia
AEC Blueprint Free Flows of Goods Sensitive Products of which import duties may not be 0% but must be < 5% ASEAN 6 by 1 January 2010 Thailand Brunei Cambodia Lao Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Vietnam CLMV by 1 January 2015 coffee, potato, copra, cut flower plants coffee, tea poultry, fish, some vegetables and fruits some animals, meat of bovine, swine, poultry, some vegetables and fruits, rice, tobacco some animals, swine, poultry, eggs, some plants and fruits, tobacco Singapore and Indonesia bean, coffee, sugar, silk, cotton some animals, swine, poultry, tapioca, corn some animals, poultry, eggs, some plants, processed meat, sugar none Tariff rate 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
AEC Blueprint Free Flows of Goods Products in Highly Sensitive List will be excluded from tariff reduction Highly Sensitive Products: rice for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines and sugar from Indonesia Malaysia Indonesia Rice at 20% in 2010 Rice at 25% in 2015 Thailand received the compensation of at least 550,000 tons of import quotas/year Sugar from 40% to 5-10% in 2015 Philippines Sugar at 38% to 2011 and progressively reduced to 5% in 2015 Rice at 40% to 2014 and reduced to 35% in 2015 Philippines agreed to buy rice from Thailand at least 367,000 tons as the compensation
AEC Blueprint Free Flows of goods 1.2 Elimination of NTBs Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 To be eliminated by 1 January 2008 NTBs : Non-Tariff Barriers To be eliminated by 1 January 2009 ASEAN 5 by 1 January 2010 Philippines by 1 January 2012 CLMV by 1 January 2015 16
Priority Integration Sectors: PIS Coordinating Country Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Automotive Rubber-based based Products Agro-based Products Wood-based Products Textiles and Apparels Fisheries Singapore ICT Healthcare Thailand Tourism Air Travel Vitenam Logistics 17
AEC Blueprint Free Flow of Goods 1.3 Trade Facilitatin ASEAN Single Window (ASW) Self Certification Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore will implement pilot project within the 1 st half of 2011. งการในต นป Cambodia, Lao, 2554Myanmar will participate in the pilot project as observer. Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore have implemented the pilot project since 1 November 2010. Thailand is expected to participate in the project by the 1 st half of 2011 after Parliament approval on April 19, 2011.
AEC Blueprint Free flows of services 2. Free flows of Services Agreed to remove substantially all restrictions on trade in services in ASEAN. reduce/eliminate Service Providers Country Service Consumers Country Restriction on market access, e.g. Limit on foreign equity participation Limit on values of service provided Limit on number of business Limit on legal entity Limit on number of employees Do not allow service providers to provide service.
AEC Blueprint Free flows of services ASEAN members are committed to increase foreign equity participation to at least 70 %, as follows Priority sectors (ICT, Health, tourism, air transport) Logistics sector Year 2010 Year 2013 70% 51% 70% Year 2015 other sectors 51% 70%
AEC Blueprint Free flows of Investment 3. Free flows of Investment Investment 1. Agriculture 2. Fisheries 3. Forestry 4. Mining 5. Manufacturing Extend non-discriminatory treatment, including NT and MFN to investors in ASEAN Revise the AIA and draft the new ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) ACIA : ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement ACIA covers liberalization, protection, facilitation, and promotion
AEC Blueprint Free flows of skilled labor 4. Free flows of skilled labor Facilitate the issuance of visa and employment passes for ASEAN professionals and skill labor. Work towards harmonization and standardization through MRAs. (7 currently completed MRAs for professions: Engineer, Architect, Medical, Nursing, Dental, Accounting and Land Survey)
AEC Blueprint Freer flows of Capital 5. Freer flows of Capital Implement measures endorsed by ASEAN Finance Ministers
AEC Blueprint 6. Other Cooperation Food, Agriculture and Forestry Intellectual Property Rights Infrastructure Development E-Commerce SME Development To enhance the international competitiveness of ASEAN s food, agriculture and forestry products To help accelerate the pace and scope of IP asset creation, commercialization and protection To establish the ASEAN infrastructure with the view to promote interoperability To lay the policy and legal infrastructure for electronic commerce and enable on-line trade in goods To accelerate the pace of SME development, enhance the competitiveness and dynamism of ASEAN SME 24
FTA between ASEAN and Dialogue Partners- At present India China Goods: Since July 2005 Services: Since 2007 Investment: Signed on 13 Aug 09 AEC Goods: signed on 13 Aug 09, Effective on 1 Jan 10 Services/Investment: under negotiations Japan Goods/Services/Investment: Signed in 2008 For Thailand effective on 2 June 09 Korea AKFTA Australia New Zealand Goods/Services/Investment: Signed on 26 Feb 09, Effective on 1 Jan 10 Goods/Services: ASEAN except Thailand since 2007 Foe Thailand Services: Signed on 26 Feb 09, Effective on 1 June 09 For Goods effective on 1 Oct 09 Investment: Signed on 2 June 09 Effective on 31 Oct 09 25
Enhancing ASEAN External Economic Relations-Future CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia) (ASEAN +6) EAFTA (East Asia FTA) (ASEAN +3) China Japan AEC Australia New Zealand Korea India ASEAN10 : Population 590 ml ( 9% of global population ) GDP 1,499 billion US$ ( 2% of global GDP ) EAFTA (ASEAN +3) : Population 2,068 ml ( 31 of global population ) GDP 9,901 billion US$ (18% of global GDP ) CEPEA(ASEAN +6) : Population 3,284 ml (50% of global population ) GDP 12,250 billion US$ (22% of global GDP ) 26
Source: Asian Development Bank Global Economic Architecture 27
ASEAN for Business Over 540 million customer base Unsaturated market Low cost resources Abundant natural resources Lower cost of labor 28
ASEAN for Business Open door policy Greater investment access to industries and economic sectors National Treatment for ASEAN investors Greater transparency, information and awareness of investment opportunities in the region More liberal and competitive investment regimes Lower transaction costs for business operations across the region 29
Implication for Thai Business 30
Implication on Trade Positive Expand Thailand s export to ASEAN Agricultural and consumer products i.e. rice, cereal, sugar, fresh fruit, processed foods, seasoning. Industrial products i.e. electrical appliance, electronics, automotive and parts. Negative More intense competition Products which are concerned to be affected by AFTA i.e. palm oil (Malaysia), coffee bean (Vietnam), coconut (Philippines), tea (Indonesia). 31
Trade and Investment Opportunities from Economic Integration 1 More channels of distribution for Thai products in ASEAN market 2 Reduce cost of production from lower import tariffs on raw materials and semi-finished products. 3 Be able to establish business, provide services, and work in ASEAN member countries easier. 4 Relocate production base to ASEAN member countries, which are relatively advantage in production factors, such as labor, natural resource, etc. 32
Impacts on Trade and Investment from Economic Integration 1 More intense competition in market 2 3 4 Low quality products may enter increasingly into Thai market. Foreign investors can invest in Thailand as ASEAN investors. Thai skilled labors can migrate to other ASEAN countries for higher salaries. 33
Implication on Services Positive Can Can do service businesses with no restriction, and resolve the problems of lack of skilled labors. Tourism and related sectors i.e. restaurant, resort and hotel. Healthcare i.e. hospital, spa, Thai massage. Negative ASEAN service providers will enter into Thai market. Service sectors which are concerned to be affected i.e. logistics, telecommunication, architecture and sectors which require a large amount of investment and high technology. 34
Implication on Investment Positive Thailand can attract more foreign direct investment. Negative Other ASEAN countries may be more attractive than Thailand. 35
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