Michigan 14th Congressional District Democratic Primary Election Exclusive Polling Study for Fox 2 News Detroit. Automated Poll Methodology and Statistics Aggregate Results Conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B July 23, 2012 1
District - Wide Aggregate Results 685 Respondents MOE +/- 3.74% Question 1: The 2012 Michigan 14th Congressional District Democratic Primary election will be held in August. Who are you most likely to vote for in the primary for US House of Representatives? (Current Democratic Congressman Hansen Clarke): 26.72% (Current Democratic Congressman Gary Peters): 45.11% (Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence): 9.64% (Former State Rep. Mary Waters): 1.17% (Retired Magistrate Bob Costello): 0.29% (Undecided): 17.08% 1% 0% 17% 27% Hansen Clarke Gary Peters Brenda Lawrence Mary Waters 10% 45% Bob Costello Undecided 2
Question #2: Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that the City of Detroit will not have a resident as a member of Congress for the first time in Michigan history. Is it important to maintain elected congressional representation from the city of Detroit in the 14th Congressional District? (It is very important): 57.98% (It is somewhat important): 19.91% Total maintaining Detroit representation is important 77.89% (It is somewhat unimportant): 12.01% (It is very unimportant): 5.86% Total maintaining Detroit representation is unimportant 17.87% (Undecided on importance): 3.81% (It does not matter): 0.44% 12% 6% 4% 0% Detroit representation is very important Detroit representation is somewhat important Detroit representation is somewhat unimportant Detroit representation is very unimportant Undecided 20% 58% It doesn't matter 3
Question #3: Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that the Michigan will not have an African American or non-white Minority American as a member of the Michigan Congressional Delegation for the first time since 1954. Is it important to maintain African American or Minority representation from the 14th Congressional District? (It is very important): 55.12% (It is somewhat important): 21.05% Total maintaining Minority representation is important 76.17% (It is somewhat unimportant): 13.74% (It is very unimportant): 7.46% Total maintaining Minority representation is unimportant 21.20% (Undecided on importance): 1.75% (It does not matter): 0.88% 14% 7% 2% 1% 55% Minority representation is very important Minority representation is somewhat important Minority representation is somewhat unimportant Minority representation is very unimportant Undecided 21% It doesn't matter 4
Question #4: In Which Age Range Do You Fit? 1- Between 18 to 30 years old, 2- between 31 to 50 years old, 3- between 51 to 65 years old, 4- ages 66 and older (Between 18 to 30 years old): 3.65% (Between 31 to 50 years old): 12.72% (Between 51 to 65 years old): 37.13% (Ages 66 and older): 46.35% Age Distribution of Aggregate Poll Respondents 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 46.35 37.13 12.72 3.65 Ages 66 & older Ages 51 to 65 Ages 31 to 50 Ages 18 to 30 Age Dist. Linear (Age Dist.) 5
Question #5: What is your gender? 1. Male 32.89% 2. Female 67.11% Gender of Aggregate Poll Respondents Male Voters 33% Female Voters 67% 6
Question #6 Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, an Independent, a Republican or a Tea Party member? (IF DEM) Do you consider yourself a solid Democrat or leaning Democrat? (IF REP) Do you consider yourself a solid Republican, leaning Republican or a Tea Party Republican? Response Code 1 (Solid Democrat): 76.32% Response Code 2 (Leaning Democrat): 10.88% Response Code 3 (Independent): 11.03% Response Code 4 (Solid Republican): 0.88% Response Code 5 (Leaning Republican): 0.59% Response Code 6 (Tea Party Republican): 0.29% 11% 1% 1% 0% Strong Democrat 11% Leaning Democrat Independent Solid Republican Leaning Republican 76% Tea Party Republican 7
Question #7 What is your nationality/heritage? Response Code 1 (African American/Black): 54.79% Response Code 2 (White/Caucasian): 34.76% Response Code 3 (Hispanic/Latino): 1.62% Response Code 4 (Arab American): 1.47% Response Code 5 (Asian/Pacific Islander): 0.59% Response Code 6 (Native American): 0.59% Response Code 7 (More than one racial/ethnic identity): 6.04% Multi Racial Native American Asian American Arab American Hispanic/Latino White/Caucasian African American 0.59 0.59 1.47 6.04 1.62 34.76 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 54.79 Multi Racial Native American Asian American Arab American Hispanic/Lat ino White/Cauc asian African American 8
Question #8: Which of the following most accurately describes your religious background? 1- Evangelical Christian, 2- Catholic, 3- Baptist, 4- Non Evangelical Christian, 5- Jewish, 6- Muslim 7- Other religious affiliation or No religious affiliation (Evangelical Christian): 10.98% (Catholic): 18.55% (Baptist): 31.75% (Protestant/Non Evangelical Christian): 15.28% (Jewish): 9.50% (Muslim): 0.74% (Other or no religious affiliation): 13.20% Non Evangelical Christian 15% Jewish 10% Muslim 1% Other or No Religious Affiliation 13% Evangelical Christian 11% Baptist 31% Catholic 19% 9
Question #9: Are you or is any member of your household a member of a labor union? Response Code 1 (No): 62.76% Response Code 2 (Yes, Self): 26.25% Response Code 3 (Yes, Household): 10.70% Response Code 4 (DK/Refused): 0.29% 70 62.76 60 50 40 30 26.25 10.7 20 10 0 0.29 No Yes, Self Yes, Household DK/Refused 10
Geographic considerations of polling study respondents Detroit Region of Wayne County 41.63% Near Detroit Suburbs Region of Wayne County 10.63% Southeastern Oakland Region 25.04% Southwestern Oakland Region 18.20% Central Region of Oakland County 4.51% 45 41.63 40 35 30 25 25.04 18.2 20 15 10 10.63 4.51 5 0 Detroit Near Detroit Suburbs Southeastern Oakland County Southwestern Oakland County Central Oakland County 11
Geographic Electoral Weight considerations of polling study respondents Wayne County Cities Cluster 52.46% Oakland County Cities Cluster 47.54% 53 52.46 52 51 50 49 48 47.54 47 46 45 Wayne County Cities Oakland County Cities 12
Methodology - Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely August 2012 primary election voters in the 14th congressional district to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Democratic Congressional nomination, the impact of losing congressional representation from Detroit and the impact of losing African American or minority congressional representation. - This nine question automated poll survey was conducted on the evening of July 23, 2012 - The population surveyed consisted of a sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters and voters that fit Michigan Primary election voting patterns. The majority of these voters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general election and odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registration. Additionally, our call file does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum range of participation and randomization. - An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the August Primary Election. - Twenty-one thousand three hundred and eighty-two (21,382) calls were placed, and 685 respondents fully participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 3.20%. - Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted to the geographical regions and political participation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following issue-based categories: A. The baseline for 14th congressional district Democratic primary nomination preference. B. The impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the City of Detroit. C. The impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressional representation from Michigan. - The margin of error for this polling sample is 3.74% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and subpopulation group as it exist. 13
Cross tabulation groups for comparison purposes Age Gender Race/Ethnicity Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, Non Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations Voter Political Party Preference Democratic, Republican and Independent Union Household versus Non Union Household 14th Congressional District Geographical Voter Regions (Southeastern Oakland Region, Southwestern Oakland Region, Central Region of Oakland County, Near Detroit Suburbs, Detroit) Major Oakland County Cities Oakland County vs. Wayne County Impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the city of Detroit question Impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressional representation from Michigan 14 th Congressional District Region Voting age adult demographics: 34.48% White, 56.31% African American, 3.62% Latino American, 3.65% Asian American, 0.23% Native American & 1.70% Other Ethnic American. 2012 Michigan 14 th district August 7 th primary net total projected voter turnout weight by represented municipality (based on FMWB predictive voter behavior analysis model for Democratic primary and Republican primary) Voter Precincts 2012 August Projected Net Primary Election Percentage of net turnout by municipality FMWB Final participation percentage of polling universe by municipality DETROIT 47.25% 41.88% Southfield 14.36% 17.25% 14
Farmington Hills 10.02% 9.57% WES T BLOOMFIELD 7.68% 7.97% PONTIAC 6.51% 4.49% OAK PARK 4.34% 5.65% HARPER WOODS 1.84% 1.59% GROSS E POINTE PARK 1.50% 2.75% GROSS E POINTE WOODS 1.50% 2.32% HAMTRAMCK 1.50% 1.01% LATHRUP VILLAGE 1.00% 1.30% GROSS E POINTE FARMS 0.83% 1.74% GROSS E POINTE CITY 0.67% 1.16% ROYAL OAK TWP. 0.50% 0.72% KEEGO HARBOR 0.17% 0.29% ORCHARD LAKE 0.17% 0.14% SYLVAN LAKE 0.17% 0.14% Grosse Pointe Shores 0.15% 0.00% 15
Data Analysis Statement The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are statistically significant with respect to Michigan Primary election cycle and the new 14th Congressional District. Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can be useful when inferring strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy. For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation coefficient model based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linear or product- moment correlation. Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the two variables are measured on at least interval scales and it determines the extent to which values of the two variables are "proportional" to each other. The value of correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does not depend on the specific measurement units used. Our proportional model for correlating the statistical relevance of a geographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based on the random proportionality of our respondent pool to the specific proportionality of the group s weight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linear relationship between these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category). The aggregate 14th Congressional District sample size of 685 respondents has a 3.74% margin of error, any review of the polling report can allow for the statistical relationship between the aggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reported clusters. The poll sample was pre weighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster McCollum White Baydoun Predictive Voter Behavior Analysis Model for historic primary election participation demographics throughout Wayne County and the new 14th Congressional district represented municipalities. This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls in the gathering and reporting of polling data. 16
Demographic Sample Report Our polling sample was very consistent with the projected voter demographic considerations and predictive voter behavior analysis model for a Michigan 14th Congressional District August Primary election. We have no significant variance items to report. Our polling sample call file was weighted for Michigan s most likely voter universe for the Michigan primary election cycle and included consideration for moderate and low participation history voters. We believe our respondent universe is reflective of voters that are highly aware and interested in participating in the August Primary election. We are reporting the data un-weighted to the demographic variances as to maintain consistency with the interest level of 14th Congressional District voters for the polling study. 17