National Opinion Poll: il - for Publication on 6 th May 41111511/PM 1
Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 6 th May. The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, the confidence and supply agreement, attitudes towards the upcoming Referendum on the 8 th Amendment, including voting intentions and strength of convictions. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 1,003 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 18 th 30 th il. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1. 2
Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,003 adults representative of the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis inhome at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 The 1,003 interviews in the poll were carried out between 18 th 30 th il. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. POLL Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent. 3
The Results
Nothing can be taken for granted as Referendum Poll shows Narrow Gap This latest Sunday Independent / Kantar Millward Brown opinion poll, conducted over 12 days up to and including last Monday, will certainly focus the minds on both sides of the 8 th debate. It will serve as a clarion call to all, as it illustrates that with three more weeks to go, there is still plenty of hard graft to be done, and nothing can be taken for granted. The Repeal side, for so long in the ascendency, may be somewhat alarmed to see that the gap between both sides is relatively narrow. Traditionally polls on plebiscites are reported on by those decided in their intentions excluding the don t knows. By this measure, the Yes side leads by 57:43. However, for this referendum, this is at best simplistic, and arguably quite dangerous. Looking at the overall electorate, 45pc are in favour of repeal versus 34pc against. That leaves a hardly insignificant 22pc of the pot left to play for (18pc undecided and 4pc refusing to say). The undecided, and the turnout, will dictate the final score of this referendum, although at this juncture, it still looks certain that the amendment will be carried. Focussing first on these floating voters, there is a school of thought that in referenda, those that are unsure tend to opt for the status quo. This well may be the case in terms of more complex, legislative votes (think Lisbon or Nice before it), but this time it is different. It would seem that many are genuinely unsure of what the best action should be (this also is evident among those that have made their decision). In addition, we have to assume that there is a Shy Tory effect for some they may well have made up their mind, but for their own reasons, are not prepared to disclose it. For these reasons alone, there is still plenty of fire left in this campaign. One of the more pressing issues seems to be the proposal of unrestricted access to abortion to up 12 weeks. There have been some shifts in opinion since we last asked the question in ruary. Combined, those stating that the proposal is about right/does not go far enough, has risen to 53pc (previously being 48pc). But this still leaves a combined 47pc either having reservations or undecided From a statistical point of view, this is classic margin of error territory. 5
Nothing can be taken for granted as Referendum Poll shows Narrow Gap (cont d) Those most likely to feel that this proposal goes too far tend to be older (55+), more rural, and supporters of Fianna Fail. In contrast, those aged 25-34 and Dubliners are most in favour. A slim majority of females of traditional child bearing age (18-44) feel that the proposal is about right (51pc). Looking at the headline figure in more detail, there are some striking, if not altogether unsurprising, trends. There is a stark generational divide in terms of those who are in favour of repeal. Over half (56pc) of those under 35 are in favour of the amendment, versus just one in three of those aged 55+. Of course, the implication here is not so much in terms of voting intent, but rather propensity to vote. Traditionally turnout on the day is higher among certain cohorts, namely older, more affluent and rural voters. Turnout will be critical. We saw in the Same Sex Marriage referendum, held nearly three years to the day from this referendum, that the youth vote was galvanised to vote on the day. One suspects it will be no different this time out. A more interesting finding is the stark East/West divide. Dublin and the Eastern seaboard has traditionally been considered more liberal, and this poll reinforces that view. 51pc of Dubliners, and 46pc of Leinster residents are in favour of repeal, versus 41pc and 37pc of Munster and Conn/Ulster residents respectively. In some respects this East/West divide is symptomatic of rural depopulation. Among supporters of the various parties, the standout figure is that of Fianna Fail supporters. They mirror the flux that is so apparent within their parliamentary party. While supporters of all other main parties tow the party line, and are in favour of repeal, Fianna Fail supporters are divided. 39pc are in favour, versus 41pc against. On the face of it, all things point to a Yes vote. However, the final three weeks will still be critical. It is by no means certain that even those who have made up their minds are steadfast in their view one in six overall (17pc) have the potential to waver. 14pc either have some reservations/doubts (16pc of Yes voters vs 11pc of No voters) and a further 3pc are not certain at all (2pc vs 4pc respectively). Effective communications over the next three weeks will be key for both sides, in order to attract the endorsement of a somewhat dubious electorate. 6
National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions
Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) General Election Result Opinion Poll il Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll il Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 26 Fine Gael 28 Fine Gael 34 Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Independents/others 7 24 3 18 Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party Sinn Féin 4 22 2 18 Labour Fianna Fáil Green Party 5 27 3 Renua Ireland AAA-PBP Social Democrats Sinn Féin 2 4 3 14 Others Don t know 7 20 Sinn Féin Others 22 8 Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 8
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: October ruary 2017 July 2017 ruary il AAA-PBP 2 3 1 1 1 Social Democrats 1 2 * 1 * Independent Candidates/ Other Parties 6 4 7 6 2 Independent Alliance 5 5 5 3 5 June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 19 th -28 th 5 th -15 th Jul 18 th 30 th Sep 9 th -18 th Oct st 31 st Dec 8 th -18 th Jan 30th - 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - 2 nd 2015 19 th -26 th June 2015 19th-30 th July 2015 28 th Oct- 6 th Nov 2015 25 th Jan- 4 th General Election 18 th -30 th June 8 th -20 th Oct 6 th -16 th 2017 9th-st July 2017 6 th -14 th 18 th -30 th il Fine Gael 26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 29 24 29 27 26 30 29 25 30 36 34 Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party Independents/ others* 29 19 8 1 28 19 8 1 25 8 2 27 27 24 19 19 26 16 10 9 9 12 1 1 1 1 18 15 18 14 17 18 15 20 18 20 22 22 24 22 26 20 5 2 8 6 7 9 7 2 2 1 1 1 32 20 23 23 23 19 19 23 26 24 6 8 1 3 6 1 23 20 20 23 7 1 24 24 7 1 19 22 24 14 7 6 1 3 22 27 26 27 33 29 28 27 20 20 20 20 20 22 7 8 6 3 7 2 2 2 4 5 2 3 14 15 14 13 11 8 * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 9
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Independents/Others: October ruary 2017 July 2017 ruary Solidarity-PBP 2 3 1 1 1 Social Democrats 1 2 * 1 * Independent Candidates/ Other Parties il 6 4 7 6 2 Independent Alliance 5 5 5 3 5 Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others* 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5-29 26 29 28 19 18 19 15 27 25 18 8 8 8 1 1 Jun 20th- 28th 2013 Aug 3rd- 12th 2013 2 Aug 17th- 27th 2013 28 27 27 27 24 19 19 17 18 14 10 9 9 30 26 16 15 12 1 1 1 1 Sep 13th- 25th 2013 Sep 30th- Oct 9th Nov 3rd- 13th Jan 15th- 24th 27 22 20 8 29 22 20 6 2 2 19th- 24th 5th- 15th 25 25 26 24 23 22 22 20 22 23 23 20 18 7 9 7 1 1 1 Jul 18th- 30th Sep 9th- 18th Oct st- 31st 32 5 2 Dec 8th- 18th 29 29 25 26 27 25 23 24 23 23 24 24 22 19 19 20 20 19 6 1 Jan 29th- 9th 2015 8 3 Mar 24th- 2nd 2015 6 7 7 6 1 1 1 1 19th-26th Jun 2015 19th-30th Jul 2015 28th Oct- 6th Nov 2015 25th Jan - 4th 26 27 24 14 30 26 7 7 3 3 General Election 29 27 33 25 30 29 36 28 20 20 20 20 20 14 18th-30th 8th-20th June Oct 15 14 13 11 8 6 7 4 2 2 2 2 6th-16th 2017 9th-st July 2017 34 27 22 8 5 3 6th-14th 18th-30th il * Includes all other parties Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 10
Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference 282727 30 27 29 2525 2222 2525 29 24 29 2726 30 29 25 3036 34 2727 24 26 22 20 20 18 1919 2323 24 22 24 2626 2733 29 2827 1919 22 24 26 26 20 22 24 16 142020202020 22 INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* 10 9 9 12 8 6 7 9 7 5 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 7 4 5 14 17 18 15 20 232323 32 23 2020 24 19 22 27 14 17 1615 1311 *Includes all others (including Greens) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 11
Satisfaction with the Government has stabilised. Nearly half are happy with its performance Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) One in Two are happy HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 80 Labour Supporters* 58 Conn/Ulster residents 58 Rural Residents 55 DEs 55 Munster Residents 55 Uncommitted Voters 52 Independents/Others Supporters 51 Dissatisfied (45) 46 48 Satisfied (49) HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 84 Dublin Residents 65 Farming Community* 60 ABs 54 Males 52 55+ 51 7 Don t know (7) ( ) = ruary Results *Caution small base Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 12
Satisfaction with Government Over Time Opinion is somewhat polarised on the performance of the Government more recently Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) 2013 Results Results 2015 Results Results 2017 Results Results June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th 2013 Nov 3 rd -13 th 2013 Jan 15 th -24 th 19 th -28 th 5 th -15 th Jul 18 th 30 th Sep 9 th -18 th Oct st 31 st Dec 8 th -18 th Jan 30th - 9 th 2015 Mar 24th - 2 nd 2015 19 th -26 th June 2015 19th-30 th July 2015 28 th Oct- 6 th Nov 2015 25 th Jan- 4 th 18 th -30 th June 8 th -20 th Oct 6 th -16 th 2017 9 th - st July 2017 6 th -14 th 18 th -30 th il Dissatisfied 75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71 66 69 62 73 71 68 69 63 67 60 62 60 62 64 50 45 46 Satisfied 17 19 19 20 19 23 20 24 23 27 19 23 26 29 25 32 29 28 31 27 40 49 48 Don t know 7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 11 6 9 9 5 8 8 8 9 11 8 9 10 7 7 13
Satisfaction with Party Leaders Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) Enda Kenny Leo Varadkar Joan Burton Brendan Howlin Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Mary Lou McDonald Mar/ Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 18 Mar/ Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 18 Mar/ Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 18 Mar/ Jun Jul Oct/ Nov 16 Jun 16 Oct 16 17 Jul 17 18 18 Satisfied 24 27 32 25 31 27 27 29 27 49 58 56 23 25 26 20 24 22 27 25 26 28 22 26 29 30 36 43 43 44 45 48 44 46 32 32 27 29 32 30 30 27 27 31 29 30 35 39 Dissatisfied 64 67 59 66 60 62 63 59 62 28 29 34 43 47 48 43 38 48 50 49 45 40 40 36 36 39 49 49 48 61 57 65 65 62 62 57 37 37 50 44 56 52 51 55 51 51 51 54 Don t know (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12) (11) (24) (13) (10) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (26) (29) (30) (25) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (16) (19) (16) (17) () (12) (18) (19) (18) () (18) (19) (16) (22) (24) (17) Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin? 14
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 69 Dissatisfied with Gov't 65 DEs 48 Conn/Ulster Residents 46 45-54 42 Munster Residents 39 Fianna Fáil Supporters 39 Rural Residents 37 Dissatisfied (29) 34 56 Satisfied (58) Fine Gael Supporters 89 Satisfied with Gov't 88 Dublin Residents 71 Farming Community* 70 35-44 65 ABs 63 Don t know (13) 10 C2s 62 Urban Residents 59 Labour Supporters* 59 ( ) = ruary Results *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? 15
Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 79 45-54 62 Conn/Ulster Residents 58 55-64 57 Dublin Residents 56 DEs 55 ABs 54 Urban Residents 54 65+ 54 Fianna Fáil Supporters 53 Dissatisfied (48) 50 Satisfied 26 (22) 25 Don t know (30) HIGHER AMONG Labour Supporters* 79 Farming Community* 44 Fine Gael Supporters 40 C2s 37 Dublin Residents 34 25-44 30 Males 29 ( ) = ruary Results *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? 16
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 63 Dublin Residents 49 Independents/Others Supporters 46 Farming Community* 45 Fine Gael Supporters 45 35-54 43 Dissatisfied (36) 44 Satisfied (48) 39 17 HIGHER AMONG Fianna Fáil Supporters 81 Labour Supporters* 55 Munster Residents 47 C1s 47 65+ 53 Farming Community* 48 ( ) = ruary Results Don t know (16) *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? 17
Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) HIGHER AMONG Independents/Others Supporters 51 Fine Gael Supporters 49 Dublin Residents 46 Labour Supporters* 46 ABs 46 45-54 45 Fianna Fáil Supporters 44 Conn/Ulster Residents 44 Urban Community 43 Dissatisfied (37) Satisfied 37 46 (39) 17 HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 86 C2s 53 25-34 52 Rural Residents 52 55-64 50 Leinster Residents 49 ( ) = ruary Results 65+ 43 C1s 43 Don t know (24) *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin? 18
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) July 2017 Total Supporters Supporters* Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other Party Supporters* Leo Varadkar (49) (58) 56 89 59 56 27 51 Brendan Howlin (28) (22) 26 40 79 25 9 Satisfied Michéal Martin (45) (48) 44 43 55 81 26 40 Mary Lou McDonald (35)# (39) 46 38 43 45 86 36 Leo Varadkar (28) (29) 34 8 35 39 69 36 Brendan Howlin (43) (48) 50 43 13 53 79 53 Dissatisfied Michéal Martin (36) (36) 39 45 38 14 63 46 Mary Lou (44)# (37) McDonald 37 49 46 44 10 51 * Includes all other parties # Previously Gerry Adams *Caution small base size Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? 19 Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain the least toxic of the main parties Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) WOULD NOT CONSIDER June Oct 2017 July 2017 Fine Gael (34) (35) (32) (32) (25) (22) Labour (31) (28) (22) (24) (25) (24) 27 26 Supporters Supporters* Supporters Supporters Independent/ Other party Supporters - 32 32 67 40 16-40 41 25 Fianna Fáil (24) (25) () () (18) (17) 26-51 30 Sinn Féin (37) (40) (38) (36) (34) (36) 34 49 41 50-39 Solidarity/People Before Profit (16) (17) (18) (22) (24) () 24 30 16 35 17 13 Green Party (n/a) (18) (17) (20) (24) (22) Social Democrats (9) (8) (10) (14) (19) (18) 24 18 37 27 27 13 27 14 12 * Includes all other parties ()=previous results *Caution small base size Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election? 20
One in three want to have the Confidence and Supply Agreement renewed. Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) HIGHER AMONG Sinn Féin Supporters 62 Ind/Others 51 C2s 46 Dublin Residents 46 Munster Residents 46 Labour Supporters* 46 35-54 45 Should be a General Election 40 32 Should renew Agreement HIGHER AMONG Leinster 46 Fine Gael Supporters 46 65+ 45 Satisfied with Gov't 44 55-64 42 ABs 42 HIGHER AMONG Conn/Ulster 34 Farming Community* 27 25-34 26 It depends 19 10 Don t know Rural Residents 37 Undecided 26 Dublin Residents 25 Fianna Fáil Supporters 24 *Caution small base size Q. The current government is held together by a Confidence and Supply agreement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for three budgets. The third budget is this October. Do you think these parties should renew their deal after the budget, or should there be a general election?
Additional Issues for publication: The 8 th Amendment
Opinions on the 12 week Abortion Proposal. One in three have reservations, and there still is a substantial minority undecided Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) HIGHER AMONG Farming Community* 57 65+ 48 Munster Residents 48 55-64 45 Rural Residents 43 Fianna Fáil Supporters 40 DEs 38 Leinster Residents 35 HIGHER AMONG 25-34 54 C2s 53 Females 18-44 51 Dublin 51 Ind/Others 49 35-44 48 18-24 47 Sinn Féin Supporters 47 About right (40) OPINIONS ON THE 12 WEEK ABORTION PROPOSAL Too far (33) 32 42 11 15 Not far enough (8) Don t know/refusal (19) ( ) = ruary Results *Caution small base size Q. The Oireachtas Committee on the Eighth Amendment, which currently gives equal right to life to the mother and the foetus, has recommended that Abortion should be available without restriction up to 23 12 weeks of pregnancy. Do you think that this recommendation goes too far, not far enough, or is about right?
There is a clear majority in favour of Repeal of the 8 th, although over one in five are keeping their cards close to their chests Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003) Base: All who have made up their minds (n=787) Including undecideds Excluding undecideds Will vote against 34 45 Will vote in favour Will vote against 43 57 Will vote in favour Refused 4 18 Don t know Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to repeal the 8 th amendment of the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this amendment? 24
Nearly one in five of those who have made a decision are still uncertain of their choice Base: All who have decided how to vote (787) Voting in favour (453) Voting Against (334) All certain (Combined) Absolutely certain 52 82 81 84 49 56 Pretty certain 30 32 28 All uncertain (Combined) 17 18 15 Some reservations/doubts 14 16 11 Not at all certain Don't know 3 1 2 4 1 1 Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to? R. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8 th amendment of the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum? 25
Voting intentions x Demographics: The Yes side is heavily skewed toward younger voters Base: All who have decided how to vote (787) Voting intentions by Demographics Male Sex Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 Age 45-54 55-64 65+ Females 18-44 Will vote in favour 45 42 47 58 54 48 44 35 32 54 Will vote against 34 33 35 27 27 31 43 51 27 Don't know 18 15 18 15 19 18 15 15 Refused 4 4 4 3 4 3 6 5 2 4 Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8 th amendment of the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum? 26
Voting intentions x Demographics: Dublin is driving the Yes side, but there is a distinct East/West divide Base: All who have decided how to vote (787) Voting intentions by Demographics Social Class Region AB C1 C2 DE F* Dublin Rest of Leinster Munster Conn/ Ulster Will vote in favour 45 44 51 47 42 18 51 46 41 37 Will vote against 34 32 30 30 35 62 29 33 37 38 Don't know 18 16 15 19 19 20 12 19 20 22 Refused 4 8 3 4 4-8 2 2 2 *Caution small base size Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8 th amendment of the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum? 27
Voting intentions x Party Support: Of the main parties, Fianna Fáil supporters are most polarised Base: All who have decided how to vote (787) Voting intentions by Party Support Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour* Sinn Féin Ind/Other Will vote in favour 45 39 44 29 52 45 Will vote against 34 41 33 46 35 26 Don't know 18 18 18 13 11 28 Refused 4 2 5 12 2 1 *Caution small base size Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8 th amendment of the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum? 28
For more information, please contact: Paul Moran paul.moran@millwardbrown.com 087 286 0773 6 Ely Place Dublin 2 t. +353 (1) 297 4500 www.millwardbrown.com/ie 41111511/PM 29