General Election 2017 Election Reflection What actually happened and what might happen next 20th June 2017 britainthinks.com BritainThinks
Contents 01 02 03 04 05 What happened?! What actually happened? Some conventional wisdoms challenged But others confirmed What happens next? 2
1 What happened?! 3
We didn t expect a hung Parliament (and nor did most of the political class) The poll of polls The result 42.4% 318 Seats 40% 262 Seats 3% 35 Seats 7.4% 12 Seats 1.8% 0 Seats Source: Guardian poll of polls between 2015 and 2017 General Elections 4
Both Conservatives and Labour increased their vote share: 5.8% 9.8% 5
While the Lib Dems and UKIP underperformed 8 seats 12 seats 1 seat 0 seats 7.9% 7.4% 12.6% 1.8% 6
Meaning we are seeing a return to two party dominance I mean UKIP is still just a pipe dream and they have no real way of winning many seats for the foreseeable future, unless we have electoral reform. Paul, Hartlepool 7
Labour won with the young and university educated but is seeing a long term erosion in its lead with C2DEs Labour won: 66% of 18-19 62% of 20-24 63% of 25-29 Labour won: 49% of those with a degree or above 10 9 9 0-2 -23-38 Conservative lead over Labour at General Elections Showing Conservative lead in percentage points -20-31 AB C1 C2 DE 5-7 -23 13 11 8-10 19 12 0 9-14 -12 5-1 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 YouGov 9-13 th June 2017 1997-2015 data: Ipsos MORI, How Britain Voted 2017 data: Lord Ashcroft, General Election Day Poll 8
Whilst the Conservatives support is strongest amongst the old, the retired and those with low levels of education The Conservatives won: 58% of 60-69 69% of 70+ Retirees were the only employment group the Conservatives won in The Conservatives won: 55% of people with GCSE or below 9
And Brexit did seem to have a role to play in this election Labour did well in seats which were Remain strongholds, with their vote share increasing by 12 points in the strongest voting Remain seats There was only a small swing to the Conservatives in the seats with the largest Leave vote 10
2 What actually happened? 11
Breakfast Briefing 20 June But, standing back from the spin, what actually happened? 12
Theresa May initially framed the election around Brexit Focus groups in the week the election was called showed that the public agreed with the Prime Minister s framing. Speech on April 19 th If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election. You see for me it s the only reason for having an election, so it has to be important, because otherwise there is no justification to have an election now, except for Brexit. This is the negotiation phase, you want your strongest players on the table. You want someone that is going to represent you and [...] we need one now, she is right, this is a chance while this is going on right now. Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country. But the Conservatives then turned to other issues before returning to Brexit in the last week. 13
But she made the campaign about herself which turned out to be a bit of a gamble This election was highly unusual at the start of the campaign, voters told us that they didn t know much about either leader As a result, there was significant scope for perceptions to shift during the campaign which is normally a time of little change From focus groups conducted the week the election was called: I don t think Corbyn s had a chance. I don t know much about May s background. BritainThinks 14
Voters found that they didn t like May Up to May 19 th Since May 19 th She's a strong leader whereas I hardly know the names of the others let alone what they stand for or promise. Georgina, Hartlepool Strong - she reminds me very much of the Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher Joanne, Birmingham [Corbyn s] words were in more plain, everyday English whereas Theresa May appeared flustered at times and continued to speak as if she had swallowed her party manifesto! Jilly, Wells BritainThinks 15
Opinions of Jeremy Corbyn improved throughout the campaign Up to May 19 th Since May 19 th Well meaning but weak. A Geography teacher. Simon, Harrow West Corbyn performed really well despite being asked some frankly stupid questions by an unprepared Paxman, like when asked about the monarchy because it s not in our manifesto. Mary, Wells BritainThinks 16
For many, this surge was more about Theresa May s decline. People warmed to Jeremy Corbyn but usually spoke about his positives in contrast to Theresa May rather than in isolation When asked how they voted, many voting for Labour cited opposition to the Conservatives and cuts to public services rather than desire for a Corbyn-led government And the coalition of chaos line seems to have weighed less heavily than in 2015 perhaps influenced by the opinion polls How did you vote? And why? Labour, because they are the only real opposition to Tories. Laura, Cambridge Labour, as I feel they are the best option out of a bad bunch!! Sharon, Hartlepool And some will have voted Labour despite Jeremy Corbyn rather than because of him 17
And Labour s performance still needs to be viewed in its historical context They hugely outperformed expectations at the start of the campaign But the swing to Labour is 5 th smallest since WWII Source: Private Eye Election Swing to Con Swing to Lab % % 1950 2.9 1951 1.1 1955 1.8 1959 1.2 1964 3.1 1966 2.8 1970 4.9 1974 (Feb) 0.8 1974 (Oct) 2.2 1979 5.3 1983 4.1 1987 1.7 1992 2.1 1997 10.2 2001 1.8 2005 3.2 2010 5.1 2015 0.7 2017 2.0 Source: David Cowling 18
3 Some conventional wisdoms challenged 19
1. Young people and non voters don t vote 2015 Turnout: 66.1% 2017 Turnout: 68.7% 20
2. Campaigns and manifestos don t matter Our undecided voters did pick up on policies from both parties over the course of the campaign and said that these played a role in how they voted 146 Number of mentions of specific policies on our online community 62 58 36 I went for Labour as I believe the costs for education is extremely high. Every child should be allowed to study and not feel inferior just because they can't afford it. Dee, Harrow West 21 15 The social care U-turn Reintroducting fox hunting Replacing free school lunches with breakfast Scrapping tuition fees Legalising cannabis 4 new bank holidays 21
Memorable policies were announced outside of the manifesto launch and spoke to voters preconceived notions of the parties What have I been hearing? Tories plan to vote on fox hunting ban, Lib Dems plan to legalise cannabis, Labour vow to scrap tuition fees. Hayden, Glasgow East 22
3. It s the economy stupid! 2015 2017 The most important issues facing the country: 52% Immigration 47% The economy 43% Health The most important issues facing the country: 63% Britain leaving the EU 49% Health 35% The economy I think the banking crisis brought it all home, didn t it? it started to come out how we just had no money, and we were just borrowing, and borrowing, and borrowing. I think they managed to get away with what they were doing for so long because things felt good. Male focus group respondent, 2015 It's still the same. NHS, police, Brexit and education. Police as crime is terrible in Hartlepool. NHS as it's imperative to the UK it's one of the best things we have. Education as I have young children. Brexit as I voted out and still want this. Carl, Hartlepool YouGov 25-26 May 2015 YouGov 9-10 th May 2017 23
4 But others were confirmed 24
1. Leadership still matters While I feel Brexit is a very important issue, I'm starting to feel the integrity of the leaders is becoming more of a significant issue. Nathan, Birmingham Erdington [My vote was about] national rather than local politics, Jeremy Corbyn has run an excellent campaign. Kate, Cambridge I really believed the country would be stronger and united if the Conservatives got a majority vote and Teresa would be a stronger leader. Tracey, Harrow West 25
2. People vote in their self interest My main concerns were that for me the dementia tax would be detrimental to the inheritance that I am likely to receive, and which I was planning to use to help my children onto the property ladder. Deborah, Harrow West I have a young granddaughter and Corbyn s promise of helping in education finally swung it Denise, Birmingham Erdington Obviously what will benefit me the most is what will determine me to vote, like more working benefits, how much tax I will have to pay etc. Stephanie, Hartlepool 26
3. We are a divided nation 2017 General Election 2016 Referendum Vs. Vs. 42.5% 40% 51.9% 48.1% 27
This result has highlighted some clear divides 2017 General Young vs. Old Election 62% of 20-24 year olds voted Labour 58% of 60-69 year olds voted Conservative Retired vs. Working Age Vs. 63% of retired people voted Conservative 45% of those working full time voted Labour University Educated vs. Not 42.5% 40% 49% of those with a degree or above voted Labour 55% of those with a GCSE or below voted Conservative 28
5 What happens next? 29
Voters consistently told us that coalition was worst possible result We tested reactions to a number of different election outcomes among our undecided voters the prospect of a coalition was consistently rated worst. This is partly driven by perceived need for strength voters wanted a Government with a healthy majority for upcoming Brexit negotiations And by negative views of the 2010-15 Coalition seen as symbolic of ineffective government and broken promises A convincing Conservative majority would mean more stability. Mary, Birmingham Erdington [The worst possible outcome would be] a third party taking a load of seats leading to a coalition government who can t decide between themselves what they want from Brexit negotiations. Nathan, Birmingham Erdington A coalition would be the worst thing that could happen. All that happened last time is that the Liberal Democrats sold out all their beliefs for a sniff of power. Graham, Harrow West BritainThinks 30
And they still feel the same way Voters still think coalitions deliver poor outcomes they aren t seen to provide the strong leadership required We've had a coalition government before and it doesn't really work. It needs to be a majority vote or the policies they have promised won't be enforced. Rena, Glasgow East And this is accentuated by Theresa May s pronouncements on coalitions during the course of the campaign now she is seen as contradicting herself (again) Although the fear of a Corbyn-led Government mitigates this viewpoint for some they would rather a coalition than him as PM This sounds like the system is broken and that you are simply 'grabbing' people who do not follow your core values to simply join your 'gang' and in return you will either pretend they are your friends or give them concessions in return for their help. Gareth, Wells 31
The DUP is new to many people and they don t like it I knew nothing of them prior to the election. Erol, Cambridge A crackpot party full of dinosaurs that should be left well alone. Actually I say dinosaurs, but seeing as the official DUP line is that they never existed, I should really have chosen something else. Tim, Hartlepool Most voters say that they knew nothing at all about the DUP prior to the election results being declared But having found out more about them, viewpoints are almost universally negative across our swing voters mainly rooted in views on abortion and LGBT rights They are so far back in the dark ages it would be unforgivable if the Conservatives form a government with them. Jamie, Glasgow This may deliver long-term problems for the Conservative party brand which is already weak 32
But they also feel pretty unenthusiastic about another election The majority of people cite civic reasons for not wanting another election Some feel that the issue has been decided similarly to the EU Referendum, they feel that the voice of the public has been heard and politicians must make the best of this Others also think it is a waste of effort and think there would be low interest in another election But a minority appear driven by party political reasons too Those fearful of a Corbyn-led government worry about the outcome of another election It is a total waste of taxpayers money. Make do with the result we have. The taxpayers have suffered enough. Use the money for something else. Rena, Glasgow East I think people have voted and shouldn't have to vote again, as long as there is a winner it doesn't matter if it's clear or not. Carrie-Anne, Birmingham Erdington 33
Although they may be warming to a view of a second referendum? April 2017 June 2017 46% 54% 53% 46% Support holding a referendum asking the public if they will accept a deal Oppose a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject the deal Support holding a referendum asking the public if they will accept a deal Oppose a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject the deal Source: Survation 23 rd April 2017 and 19 th June 2017 (excludes don t knows) 34
To win an election you need a coalition of the left OR right AND the middle The Conservatives must appeal to younger, urban, remainers Labour must appeal to older, small town, leavers And leadership will remain crucial to uniting a divided country 35
Thank you For more information: Spencer Livermore +44 (0)207 845 5880 slivermore@britainthinks.com Deborah Mattinson +44 (0)207 845 5880 dmattinson@britainthinks.com Julia Ridpath +44 (0)207 845 5880 jridpath@britainthinks.com BritainThinks Somerset House Strand London WC2R 1LA BritainThinks Somerset House Strand London WC2R 1LA BritainThinks Somerset House Strand London WC2R 1LA britainthinks.com