Indiana Polling Executive Summary Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870 Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 400 likely voters in Indiana. The poll was conducted from May 10 th through the 15 th and has a margin of error of ±4.9%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users, with the results weighted by voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing. 3) Do you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump? Q3: Trump Opinion Somewhat favorable 7.4% 37.0% 6.9% 3.1% 6.0% 2.1% 14.3% 36.9% Somewhat unfavorable 29.2% 5.8% 38.6% 9.8% 13.7% 11.9% 17.9% 8.4% Strongly favorable 27.6% 49.6% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 12.8% 9.7% 46.2% Strongly unfavorable 25.2% 2.2% 45.7% 84.2% 69.5% 70.0% 45.7% 7.2% Uncertain 10.4% 5.4% 8.8% 1.4% 10.8% 3.2% 12.4% 1.4%
Race Age group Gender Q3: Trump Opinion Somewhat favorable 9.8% 3.9% 13.8% 0.0% 20.7% 14.5% 22.8% 19.5% 16.0% 21.4% 16.5% Somewhat unfavorable 11.8% 20.3% 22.0% 16.9% 11.3% 19.6% 17.4% 6.7% 0.0% 12.9% 11.0% Strongly favorable 19.4% 18.4% 34.8% 0.0% 25.8% 5.9% 23.6% 42.7% 24.5% 16.9% 34.6% Strongly unfavorable 49.9% 33.1% 22.5% 30.8% 38.9% 51.9% 31.0% 27.5% 57.9% 42.6% 34.6% Uncertain 9.1% 24.2% 7.0% 52.4% 3.4% 8.1% 5.2% 3.7% 1.7% 6.1% 3.3% 4) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of President Trump s job performance? Q4: Trump Job Somewhat approve 14.2% 39.2% 17.5% 6.2% 6.3% 12.6% 18.5% 33.8% Somewhat disapprove 25.6% 2.3% 40.8% 14.3% 13.4% 8.9% 22.4% 7.9% Strongly approve 15.9% 48.7% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 8.3% 6.6% 48.7% Strongly disapprove 33.9% 0.2% 30.7% 75.8% 80.3% 66.2% 38.6% 4.7% Uncertain 10.4% 9.6% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 13.8% 4.9%
Race Age group Gender Q4: Trump Job Somewhat approve 6.8% 3.9% 18.6% 0.0% 24.8% 23.0% 24.7% 22.8% 17.3% 22.7% 22.4% Somewhat disapprove 9.7% 20.3% 19.9% 36.6% 11.2% 21.1% 17.1% 4.2% 2.1% 12.9% 10.7% Strongly approve 11.5% 18.4% 15.3% 24.0% 25.8% 6.0% 22.1% 39.7% 24.4% 18.1% 30.5% Strongly disapprove 52.2% 33.1% 35.0% 11.1% 33.3% 42.9% 29.7% 26.4% 49.0% 39.4% 29.7% Uncertain 19.7% 24.2% 11.2% 28.3% 4.9% 7.0% 6.5% 6.9% 7.1% 6.9% 6.7% 5) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Donnelly s job performance? Q5: Donnelly Job Somewhat approve 22.7% 25.4% 27.1% 35.8% 54.7% 37.6% 23.5% 26.4% Somewhat disapprove 15.6% 20.6% 50.6% 19.9% 15.0% 21.1% 21.7% 22.9% Strongly approve 9.1% 6.3% 0.0% 19.1% 0.0% 18.6% 8.7% 5.0% Strongly disapprove 11.9% 29.9% 10.4% 6.6% 14.6% 6.8% 12.3% 31.3% Uncertain 40.6% 17.8% 11.9% 18.6% 15.8% 16.0% 33.9% 14.3%
Race Age group Gender Q5: Donnelly Job Somewhat approve 33.5% 24.2% 40.5% 56.3% 28.3% 41.9% 28.7% 21.1% 30.5% 31.7% 27.3% Somewhat disapprove 22.0% 0.0% 26.7% 24.0% 21.9% 21.4% 23.7% 23.0% 17.4% 18.1% 26.1% Strongly approve 11.1% 4.3% 9.4% 0.0% 10.9% 1.8% 10.0% 8.1% 26.8% 7.2% 14.5% Strongly disapprove 3.7% 33.1% 4.7% 0.0% 20.1% 5.2% 14.5% 31.6% 18.6% 14.1% 22.2% Uncertain 29.6% 38.4% 18.7% 19.7% 18.7% 29.6% 23.1% 16.2% 6.8% 28.9% 9.9% 6) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Young s job performance? Q6: Young Job Somewhat approve 10.4% 34.9% 41.8% 18.9% 17.0% 18.7% 16.1% 40.9% Somewhat disapprove 16.0% 14.0% 36.5% 22.1% 31.7% 23.7% 28.2% 9.4% Strongly approve 11.7% 13.2% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 7.3% 2.6% 14.1% Strongly disapprove 4.8% 4.4% 4.3% 31.1% 29.5% 27.1% 16.1% 2.9% Uncertain 57.0% 33.5% 17.4% 23.0% 21.8% 23.2% 37.0% 32.7%
Race Age group Gender Q6: Young Job Somewhat approve 25.5% 24.2% 17.1% 40.9% 27.5% 25.0% 27.6% 28.5% 25.3% 24.1% 30.0% Somewhat disapprove 22.6% 33.1% 44.7% 0.0% 17.3% 22.6% 23.6% 16.8% 9.2% 18.2% 20.1% Strongly approve 9.4% 4.3% 9.1% 0.0% 8.9% 9.4% 9.6% 5.8% 11.2% 6.7% 11.1% Strongly disapprove 18.1% 0.0% 4.1% 11.1% 15.2% 11.3% 11.7% 13.7% 26.6% 15.9% 13.4% Uncertain 24.4% 38.4% 25.0% 48.1% 31.1% 31.7% 27.5% 35.2% 27.7% 35.2% 25.3% 7) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Governor Holcomb s job performance? Q7: Holcomb Job Somewhat approve 19.6% 48.3% 53.3% 29.4% 0.0% 33.2% 28.1% 48.8% Somewhat disapprove 19.1% 15.8% 14.3% 31.8% 63.7% 33.0% 25.7% 11.9% Strongly approve 11.6% 25.2% 11.0% 7.0% 14.3% 9.1% 6.4% 28.1% Strongly disapprove 11.0% 1.6% 5.0% 12.8% 14.6% 11.6% 10.9% 0.7% Uncertain 38.7% 9.1% 16.4% 19.1% 7.4% 13.2% 29.0% 10.5%
Race Age group Gender Q7: Holcomb Job Somewhat approve 29.5% 7.6% 26.8% 56.3% 39.8% 43.0% 28.0% 52.1% 31.9% 37.9% 38.5% Somewhat disapprove 18.6% 0.0% 35.5% 0.0% 22.9% 16.1% 26.8% 19.0% 27.7% 20.5% 25.1% Strongly approve 14.9% 24.6% 12.1% 0.0% 16.4% 4.6% 16.9% 12.8% 32.7% 11.4% 21.0% Strongly disapprove 13.3% 33.1% 5.5% 0.0% 6.3% 8.9% 7.3% 6.0% 6.2% 7.1% 7.0% Uncertain 23.7% 34.7% 20.1% 43.7% 14.5% 27.4% 21.0% 10.1% 1.6% 23.1% 8.4% 8) If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Mike Braun and Joe Donnelly, who would you vote for? Q8: Senate Democrat Joe Donnelly 42.2% 11.3% 32.7% 85.0% 71.1% 83.0% 41.9% 10.9% Republican Mike Braun 26.5% 81.2% 44.9% 8.6% 8.3% 12.4% 32.4% 82.7% Uncertain 31.3% 7.5% 22.4% 6.4% 20.6% 4.7% 25.8% 6.4% Race Age group Gender Q8: Senate Democrat Joe Donnelly 73.6% 53.4% 55.8% 11.1% 40.6% 50.4% 43.5% 32.0% 55.8% 47.9% 39.5% Republican Mike Braun 9.2% 22.3% 23.8% 69.2% 50.2% 36.2% 43.0% 57.7% 42.1% 39.0% 52.5% Uncertain 17.1% 24.2% 20.3% 19.7% 9.2% 13.4% 13.4% 10.3% 2.1% 13.1% 8.0%
9) If the election for Senate were held today and you had to make a decision, which candidate are you leaning towards? Q9: Senate Leaning 68.7% 92.5% 77.6% 93.6% 79.4% 95.3% 74.2% 93.6% Democrat Joe Donnelly 4.6% 0.0% 9.4% 1.7% 14.6% 1.9% 5.2% 0.0% Republican Mike Braun 2.0% 1.8% 3.2% 0.1% 6.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1.8% Uncertain 24.7% 5.7% 9.8% 4.6% 0.0% 2.7% 18.0% 4.6% Race Age group Gender Q9: Senate Leaning 82.9% 75.8% 79.7% 80.3% 90.8% 86.6% 86.6% 89.7% 97.9% 86.9% 92.0% Democrat Joe Donnelly 4.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.1% 3.2% 1.5% 0.0% 2.7% 1.2% Republican Mike Braun 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 1.4% 3.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 1.3% Uncertain 12.8% 24.2% 16.5% 19.7% 5.9% 8.0% 9.4% 7.3% 2.1% 8.9% 5.5%
Q8+Q9: The following combines the responses of Q8 (planning to vote for) with Q9 (those are leaning towards) 10) If the election for Congress were held in your district today would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat? Q10: Party Preference Democrat 41.4% 9.1% 35.3% 79.6% 83.2% 83.3% 37.7% 6.6% Republican 26.4% 81.2% 20.2% 11.1% 0.0% 8.4% 24.9% 88.3% Uncertain 32.1% 9.6% 44.4% 9.4% 16.8% 8.3% 37.4% 5.1% Race Age group Gender Q10: Party Preference Democrat 66.6% 37.4% 53.3% 35.1% 38.2% 56.1% 38.4% 30.8% 46.3% 42.8% 39.5% Republican 14.8% 38.4% 19.5% 16.9% 49.1% 29.3% 45.7% 54.5% 43.9% 42.6% 46.6% Uncertain 18.6% 24.2% 27.2% 48.1% 12.6% 14.6% 15.8% 14.8% 9.9% 14.6% 13.9%
11) If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Connie Lawson, Jim Harper, George Wolfe, and Mark Rutherford, who would you vote for? Didn't Donald Gary Hillary Jill Independent or in another vote Trump Johnson Clinton Stein Democrat party Republican Q11: Secretary of State Democrat Jim Harper 18.7% 5.6% 2.9% 47.6% 47.4% 53.1% 14.7% 1.3% Green George Wolfe 0.0% 1.0% 12.5% 5.0% 27.2% 5.0% 6.6% 0.7% Libertarian Mark Rutherford Republican Connie Lawson 12.6% 7.4% 47.6% 5.7% 25.3% 6.9% 23.8% 5.3% 11.5% 64.1% 11.9% 4.9% 0.0% 4.1% 6.3% 73.8% Uncertain 57.2% 21.9% 25.2% 36.8% 0.0% 30.9% 48.5% 18.9%
Race Age group Gender Q11: Secretary of State Democrat Jim Harper 47.0% 33.1% 36.4% 11.1% 19.7% 34.4% 21.1% 16.2% 23.1% 26.3% 19.0% Green George Wolfe 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 3.9% 9.7% 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 2.2% 5.3% Libertarian Mark Rutherford 4.7% 4.3% 17.9% 0.0% 10.8% 13.3% 14.3% 9.9% 0.0% 8.2% 12.9% Republican Connie Lawson 1.9% 38.4% 4.1% 0.0% 37.4% 15.2% 31.0% 43.6% 38.5% 29.3% 36.0% Uncertain 46.4% 24.2% 34.6% 88.9% 28.2% 27.4% 30.7% 27.7% 38.4% 34.0% 26.7% 12) Do you currently approve or disapprove of the Tax Reform Bill that was signed into law recently? Q12: Tax Reform Approve 22.0% 73.9% 46.6% 12.6% 8.3% 20.6% 28.9% 72.3% Disapprove 30.2% 6.4% 37.9% 60.6% 70.9% 55.1% 34.1% 10.3% Uncertain 47.8% 19.7% 15.5% 26.8% 20.8% 24.3% 36.9% 17.4%
Race Age group Gender Q12: Tax Reform Approve 31.9% 22.3% 38.6% 45.2% 45.0% 31.8% 45.0% 50.6% 42.1% 31.6% 56.1% Disapprove 42.9% 53.4% 29.6% 11.1% 31.0% 24.4% 31.0% 28.6% 48.3% 36.3% 27.2% Uncertain 25.2% 24.2% 31.8% 43.7% 24.0% 43.9% 24.0% 20.9% 9.6% 32.1% 16.7% 13) Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate for U.S. Senate if you knew they supported the recent Tax Reform bill that was signed into law? Q13: Tax Reform Vote Impact Less Likely 30.9% 9.9% 32.8% 58.3% 71.1% 53.7% 36.7% 11.0% More Likely 12.1% 66.8% 49.8% 12.8% 14.3% 15.2% 29.1% 67.7% Uncertain 56.9% 23.3% 17.4% 28.9% 14.6% 31.1% 34.2% 21.3% Race Age group Gender Q13: Tax Reform Vote Impact Less Likely 36.8% 53.4% 35.6% 11.1% 31.8% 26.8% 32.3% 29.0% 44.5% 36.9% 27.4% More Likely 20.4% 22.3% 28.4% 69.2% 42.0% 36.3% 34.7% 46.4% 43.4% 29.1% 51.2% Uncertain 42.8% 24.2% 36.0% 19.7% 26.2% 36.9% 33.0% 24.6% 12.1% 34.0% 21.4%
14) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Indiana? Q14: Abortion Oppose 29.2% 26.9% 40.0% 65.2% 60.0% 60.8% 48.5% 23.3% Support 38.5% 56.9% 47.2% 21.0% 34.0% 23.1% 32.4% 61.8% Uncertain 32.3% 16.2% 12.8% 13.8% 6.0% 16.1% 19.1% 14.9% Race Age group Gender Q14: Abortion Oppose 52.5% 53.4% 39.1% 43.7% 41.9% 51.2% 42.1% 36.3% 44.2% 51.5% 33.2% Support 21.6% 18.4% 36.7% 56.3% 43.0% 33.5% 43.0% 44.2% 39.8% 40.8% 41.0% Uncertain 26.0% 28.1% 24.2% 0.0% 15.1% 15.3% 14.9% 19.5% 16.0% 7.8% 25.8% 15) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion after a pregnancy has lasted for 20 weeks in Indiana?
Q15: Abortion 20 Weeks Oppose 13.3% 29.1% 24.6% 49.7% 73.5% 47.3% 36.8% 24.7% Support 62.9% 66.0% 73.5% 25.4% 26.5% 30.7% 46.4% 70.9% Uncertain 23.8% 4.9% 1.9% 24.8% 0.0% 22.0% 16.9% 4.4% Race Age group Gender Q15: Abortion 20 Weeks Oppose 31.7% 63.9% 34.3% 24.0% 35.9% 45.0% 37.1% 33.7% 24.6% 38.7% 32.3% Support 40.6% 7.9% 61.9% 56.3% 51.4% 40.9% 50.7% 54.6% 55.9% 49.6% 51.9% Uncertain 27.7% 28.1% 3.8% 19.7% 12.7% 14.0% 12.2% 11.7% 19.6% 11.8% 15.8% 16) Do you support or oppose laws that would stop LGBTQ individuals from being discriminated against in regard to employment, housing, and healthcare in Indiana? Q16: LGBTQ Oppose 10.8% 29.1% 16.3% 24.1% 14.6% 26.1% 12.2% 30.5% Support 65.0% 47.7% 62.9% 71.9% 85.4% 67.1% 70.6% 47.1% Uncertain 24.2% 23.2% 20.8% 4.0% 0.0% 6.9% 17.2% 22.4%
Race Age group Gender Q16: LGBTQ Oppose 4.5% 47.5% 19.7% 24.0% 26.3% 33.1% 17.3% 23.8% 30.0% 20.4% 28.6% Support 84.0% 28.3% 74.5% 76.0% 57.0% 61.8% 65.0% 57.4% 51.2% 67.3% 51.9% Uncertain 11.5% 24.2% 5.8% 0.0% 16.7% 5.2% 17.7% 18.8% 18.7% 12.2% 19.4% 17) Do you support or oppose President Trump s actions regarding tariffs & trade policy? Q17: Trump Tariffs Trade Oppose 31.7% 11.2% 52.8% 74.6% 72.0% 67.4% 46.9% 13.0% Support 16.2% 73.4% 23.3% 10.0% 6.0% 11.6% 23.6% 75.0% Uncertain 52.1% 15.4% 23.9% 15.3% 22.0% 21.1% 29.5% 12.0% Race Age group Gender Q17: Trump Tariffs Trade Oppose 59.8% 33.1% 58.1% 35.1% 37.8% 55.2% 34.7% 34.4% 45.0% 43.3% 37.4% Support 9.2% 42.7% 30.2% 16.9% 43.7% 24.7% 38.0% 53.4% 40.9% 31.0% 49.7% Uncertain 31.0% 24.2% 11.7% 48.1% 18.5% 20.0% 27.3% 12.2% 14.1% 25.7% 12.9%
18) Do you support or oppose President Trump s actions regarding removing the United States from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement? Q18: Trump Iran Nuclear Oppose 31.0% 5.3% 33.4% 71.8% 73.2% 61.5% 36.9% 11.5% Support 21.6% 75.7% 24.2% 8.7% 0.0% 17.1% 24.5% 72.1% Uncertain 47.4% 19.0% 42.3% 19.5% 26.8% 21.4% 38.6% 16.4% Race Age group Gender Q18: Trump Iran Nuclear Oppose 37.4% 53.4% 36.5% 27.9% 35.0% 50.6% 25.9% 23.1% 56.8% 35.6% 35.1% Support 18.4% 22.3% 34.8% 24.0% 43.9% 27.5% 40.9% 55.4% 34.0% 35.3% 47.1% Uncertain 44.2% 24.2% 28.6% 48.1% 21.2% 21.9% 33.1% 21.5% 9.2% 29.2% 17.8%
19) In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for? Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein Democrat Independent or in another party Republican Q19: 2016 Election Didn't vote 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 20.1% 5.9% Donald Trump 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 21.7% 85.0% Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 20.6% 2.4% Hillary Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 74.7% 32.8% 6.1% Jill Stein 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.7% 4.9% 0.6% Race Age group Gender Q19: 2016 Election Didn't vote 14.3% 28.1% 33.6% 16.9% 7.2% 17.5% 11.6% 3.2% 5.0% 10.8% 7.8% Donald Trump 11.9% 18.4% 31.3% 52.4% 49.0% 19.3% 46.6% 63.4% 42.1% 37.5% 52.9% Gary Johnson 3.1% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 7.8% 12.8% 9.9% 4.1% 0.0% 6.9% 7.6% Hillary Clinton 66.7% 53.4% 25.8% 30.8% 34.5% 48.7% 28.8% 28.4% 52.8% 41.7% 31.5% Jill Stein 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.0% 3.1% 0.2%
The following questions are for demographic purposes: 1) Are you registered to vote in Indiana? 2) How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Indiana General Election? 20) What is your party affiliation?
21) What is your political ideology? 22) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background? 23) What race do you identify yourself as?
24) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? 25) What is the highest level of education have you completed? 26) How old are you?
27) What is your gender?