Latin America in the New Global Order Vittorio Corbo Governor Central Bank of Chile
Outline 1. Economic and social performance of Latin American economies. 2. The causes of Latin America poor performance: too much unfinished work? 3. Challenges for Latin America in the new global era.
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies In the three decades after WW II Latin American economies experienced steady growth (about 5% p.a.). This performance was interrupted by the debt crisis of the early 1980s. The crisis uncovered the serious structural problems existing in most Latin American economies and motivated reform attempts.
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies As a result, after the crisis the old import substitution-cum cum-government intervention development model started to be abandoned (Chile started a decade earlier). At different pace, countries began introducing deep reforms and policies that put emphasis on macro stability, competitive market structures, integration into the world economy and a new role for the government.
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies The new economic model was expected to accelerate growth and to improve social indicators (reduce poverty and income inequality). Except for Chile, the reform process roughly coincides with the return of private capital inflows to the region. However, the results have been mixed: few countries have achieved stability and higher growth.
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies With regards to economic growth: Latin America had its worst decade during the 1980s (the so called lost decade ); In the 1990s economic growth resumed, but remained below the rates prevailing in the pre- crisis years; During this period Chile was the fastest growing economy in LAC (it was among the fastest growing economies in the world: 7.3% p.a during 1985-97). 97).
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies Except for Chile, during the 80s and 90s most Latin American countries saw an increase in the gap in per- capita GDP with medium- and high-income income countries; In the past twenty years Chile reduced in about 25-30% the gap in per-capita GDP with the U.S.; Neither we observe convergence (absolute) among Latin American countries during the 90s; But trade openness of LA countries has increased during the past three decades;
10.0 Economic Growth (1960-2002, %) 8.0 7.8 6.0 4.0 6.7 5.6 5.0 5.0 4.1 6.5 3.4 3.3 6.0 3.1 4.8 3.4 3.4 6.6 3.9 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.0 60s 70s 80s 90s 2000-2002 1960-2002 Latin America East Asia World Note: East Asia includes China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Source: World Development Indicators (2003) and IMF (2003).
Economic Growth During the 1990s China Vietnam Malaysia Uganda Chile Ireland Korea, Rep. Dom. Republic India Costa Rica Argentina Israel Bangladesh Thailand Indonesia Peru Bolivia Poland Uruguay United States Mexico Philippines Colombia Brazil Paraguay United Kingdom Venezuela Ecuador Germany Japan (selected countries) Chile Other Latin American Countries Other Economies Source: World Bank, WDI 2003 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Relative Gross Domestic Output (Country j per-capita GDP over USA per-capita GDP; 1980=1) 1.3 Chile 1 Uruguay 0.7 Mexico Brazil Argentina 0.4 Venezuela 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Source: IMF, WEO Database, 2003
Trade Openness % (X+M)/GDP Costa Rica Ecuador Dom. Republic Mexico Chile Paraguay Venezuela Bolivia Colombia Uruguay Peru Brazil Argentina 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Source: World Bank, WDI 2003 1970 1980 2000
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies With regards to social indicators: Life expectancy, literacy rate and infant mortality improved remarkably since the 60s, even during the debt crisis period; Poverty reduction has been rather modest and uneven: Chile and Uruguay achieved the greatest reduction; In some countries poverty increased (Mexico, Peru and Venezuela). Income distribution has deteriorated, becoming one of the worst in the world. In this matter Chile is not an exception.
Life Expectancy at Birth (number of years) Chile Venezuela Argentina Mexico Colombia Peru Brazil LAC 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1960 1980 1990 2001 Source: World Bank, WDI 2003
Literacy Rate (percentage) Argentina Chile Venezuela Colombia Mexico Peru Brazil LAC 0 20 40 60 80 100 1970 1980 1990 2001 Source: World Bank, WDI 2003
Chile Infant Mortality (per 1000 live births) Argentina Venezuela Colombia Mexico Peru Brazil LAC 0 50 100 150 1960 1980 1990 2001 Source: World Bank, WDI 2003
Poverty Rate 14 Uruguay 23 16 Chile 32 21 Venezuela 13 21 Mexico 20 30 Costa Rica 36 39 Colombia 42 41 Brazil 48 43 Perú 42 61 Bolivia 66 75 Honduras 77 0 20 40 60 80 Source: Székely (2001) Beginning of 90s At the end of 90s
Income Distribution (Gini coefficients) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 LAC Asia OECD Eastern Europe 70s 80s 90s Source: ECLAC
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies In sum, we can conclude: The economic and social performance of most Latin American economies after the reforms has been disappointing: Economic growth has not reached the pre-crisis rates; The reduction in poverty rates has been modest; Income distribution is one of the worst around the world. Except for income distribution, where like in most Latin American countries there has not been any improvement, Chile is the exception to the rule.
1. Economic and Social Performance of LAC Economies Up to this point, important questions arise: Why the payoffs of the reforms have been so disappointing? What is so particular about Chile?
2. Searching for Explanations
2. Searching for Explanations One common feature of the region has been the high propensity of countries to incur in macroeconomic crises. The macro crises have delayed the reform process and in many cases resulted in set backs. Macro crises have fiscal roots and in some countries they have been exacerbated by financial crises. Reforms without appropriate macro underpinnings have resulted in perverse responses.
2. Searching for Explanations What is so different about Chile? In Chile fiscal problems were faced early on, culminating with stringent fiscal responsibility; The opening up process (albeit short lived setbacks) has been a continuous one for the past 30 years; And reforms have gone well beyond macro and trade, emphasizing also the institutional buildup; As a result Chile s fundamentals are very solid and the country is more resilient to shocks.
2. Searching for Explanations The breath of reforms: Competition/privatization; Pension system; But even more important, there has been an important institutional buildup: Property rights; Framework for private sector participation in infrastructure through BOT arrangements; Banking and bankruptcy laws; Independent central bank; Fiscal rule.
Respect of Property Rights Chile Uruguay Brazil Mexico Jamaica Very High High Moderate Costa Rica El Salvador Venezuela Ecuador Honduras Dominican Republic Argentina Paraguay Guatemala Colombia Nicaragua Peru Panama Bolivia Cuba Haiti Low Very Low Source: Heritage (2004) 0 1 2 3 4 5
Legal Structure and Security of Property Rights (as of 2001) Costa Rica Chile Uruguay Jamaica Brazil Panama El Salvador Peru Dominican Rep. Mexico Argentina Colombia Nicaragua Bolivia Paraguay Honduras Guatemala Ecuador Haiti Venezuela 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Source: Fraser Institute.
Regulatory Quality Chile Costa Rica Panama Mexico Uruguay Jamaica Brazil Peru El Salvador Colombia Guatemala Bolivia Dominican Rep. Honduras Nicaragua Venezuela Paraguay Ecuador Argentina Haiti Cuba -1.5-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Sources: Kaufmann et al (World Bank, 2003)
Control of Corruption Chile Costa Rica Uruguay Brazil Cuba Mexico Peru Panama Dominican Rep. Nicaragua Jamaica Colombia El Salvador Guatemala Argentina Honduras Bolivia Venezuela Ecuador Paraguay Haiti -2-1.5-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Sources: Kaufmann et al (World Bank, 2003)
Economic Freedom (as of 2001) Chile Panama El Salvador Costa Rica Jamaica Uruguay Peru Dominican Rep Bolivia Argentina Nicaragua Paraguay Guatemala Mexico Honduras Haiti Brazil Colombia Venezuela Ecuador Source: Fraser Institute. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Country Risk (Basis Points) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Brazil Philippines Colombia Peru Mexico Malaysia Chile South Poland Thailand Hungary Korea Source: JP Morgan, February 2004
Fiscal Balance: Average 1995-2002 1 (% GDP) 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Argentina Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Chile Korea Malaysia Thailand Polonia Czech. Rep. Hungary Israel Latin America Countries Other Emerging Market Economies Fuente: Moody s April 2003
160 Public Debt 2002 (% GDP) 140 Latin America Countries 120 Other Emerging Market Economies 100 80 60 40 20 0 Argentina Brazil ColombiaMexico Peru Chile Korea Malaysia ThailandPolonia Czech. Rep. Hungary Israel (1) Gross central government debt (excludes debt from the central bank and social security trust funds) Source: Moody s April 2003, and Ministry of Finance
Ranking of Banking Strength Canada Portugal USA. Ireland UK France Hong Australia Israel N. Zealand Chile UAE Taiwan Germany Mexico Malaysia Brazil Japan Peru China Philippines Thailand Korea Venezuela Indonesia Argentina Other Emerging Market Economies Developed Countries Latin America Countries 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Source: Moody s, March 2003.
Competitiveness Ranking 2003 USA Ireland Malaysia N. Zealand Germany U. K. France Chile Japan China Korea Brazil Philippines Portugal Mexico Indonesia Argentina Venezuela º Other Emerging Market Economies Developed Countries Latin America Countries 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Source: IMD, May 2003.
3. Challenges for Latin America in the New Global Era
3. Challenges for Latin America The new global era represents a great opportunity for the Latin American region: It gives access to better consumption opportunities and greater technological possibilities; It improves future prospects. However, it also presents great challenges: Countries with poor institutions and bad policies are more vulnerable to financial crisis and increasingly subject to contagion effects; New technologies are biased towards high-skilled labor, which may exacerbate income inequality and be the cause of social unrest.
3. Challenges for Latin America The main challenges for the Latin American countries are: to develop institutions and implement policies that make our economies more resilient to external shocks and, at the same time, set the basis for achieving high and sustainable growth (this can make the difference between those countries that will gain or lose from the irreversible globalization trend); implement policies aimed at reducing the existing income inequality.
3. Challenges for Latin America What do we know with regards to macro policy: Fiscal responsibility is a must and financial systems need to be strengthened; On the exchange rate system: Adjustable pegs are prone to speculative attacks and flexibility helps; Capital controls have demonstrated to be ineffective to reduce external vulnerability and have high costs; With de facto high capital mobility adjustable pegs are difficult to defend;
3. Challenges for Latin America A float allows an easier adjustment of the real exchange rate in the face of shocks; It may also reduce the volatility of short term flows; And it allows the effective use of monetary policy to accommodate real shocks; To work properly a hard-peg requires conditions (that countries like Hong Kong meet) which are difficult to achieve for an emerging market economy;
3. Challenges for Latin America In sum: A floating exchange rate along with inflation targeting and an open capital account seems a good mix (Chile); But a float requires a credible nominal anchor, either a monetary or an inflation target, for which a highly reputable Central Bank and the absence of fiscal dominance is needed; In the fiscal front a counter-cyclical cyclical but, at the same time, sustainable policy, like Chile s 1% structural surplus rule, ensures fiscal solvency (which can also reduce country risk and capital flow volatility).
3. Challenges for Latin America Bottom line: the macro policy mix must be internally consistent and robust to different scenarios (policies have to function well in good and bad times). But beyond macro stability there are also many challenges: In trade: more progress is needed in opening up and in improving access of the region s exports to developed countries markets. Given the difficulties arising in WTO meetings, an alternative is to sign FTAs with important economies (like Chile and Mexico have done).
3. Challenges for Latin America In the financial sector: improve and/or update prudential supervision and regulation in the financial system, specially banks, enhancing market discipline. Further, much progress is needed regarding: Privatization of SOEs; Tax reform; Updating the regulatory framework affecting public utilities; Liberalization and flexibility of labor markets.
3. Challenges for Latin America But Latin American countries have to go beyond and develop or strengthen institutions that: Assure property rights protection; Reduce the degree of corruption; Increase the enforcement of contracts; Make the judiciary system more efficient; Reduce political interference with monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies (like Chile s fiscal rule and recently introduced merit-based public servants career).
3. Challenges for Latin America This is a difficult task because most likely it involves confronting some of the society s interest groups. All the elements above (and others) are necessary to create an environment more supportive and conducive to investment and innovation.
3. Challenges for Latin America A final big challenge concerns income distribution. Here the key innovation for improving income distribution will come from empowering the poor by giving them access to assets that will enable them to work their way out of poverty: education to increase their human capital (coverage and quality); titling reform to allow their micro enterprises to operate in the formal sector; micro credit to allow them to buy physical capital. Labor market flexibility also matters in this area.