CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE NOs. INTRODUCTION 1 8 1 ORIGIN AND REGIONAL SETTING 9 19 2 DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH OF POPULATION 20 44 3 SOCIAL COMPOSITION OF POPULATION 46 53 4 SEX COMPOSITION OF POPULATION 54 65 5 LITERACY 66 80 6 MIGRATION 81 96 7 SLUM POPULATION 97 115 8 WORKFORCE STRUCTURE 116 129 9 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS 130 142 REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 143 159 APPENDICES 160-167
List of Tables Table No. Title Page No. 1.1 Periods of origin of million cities 9 1.2 India: Characteristics of million cities 12 1.3 India: Administrative status of million cities 14 2.1 Trends of urban population in major regions of the world, 1950-2011 26 2.2 Growth of million cities in the world: 1950-2011 27 2.3 Million cities in the world s major regions: 1950-2011 28 2.4 Urban situation in India: 1901-2011 29 2.5 Number of UAs/Towns and out growths (OGs) in 2011 29 2.6 The break-up of class-i cities: 2011 30 2.7 Configuration of million cities, 2011 31 2.8 Cities with million population, 2011 32 2.9 India: Urban Primacy, 2011 34 2.10 Growth of million cities: 1901-2011 35 2.11 Million plus cities: 1901-2011 (in millions) 38 2.12 Population size and annual exponential growth rate between different time periods (1901-2011) 3.1 Population of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes in million cities 49 4.1 Sex ratio: All India and million cities, 1901 2011 58 4.2 Sex ratio in class-i cities, 2011 60 4.3 Pattern of sex ratio in million cities, 2001-2011 61 4.4 Change in sex ratio in million cities 2001-2011 63 5.1 Urban literacy in India: 1951-2011 73 5.2 Urban literacy rate in class-i cities in 2011 75 5.3 Top five Muslim (in %) dominated cities and their literacy rate in 2001 76 5.4 Literacy rate and gender disparity in million cities: 2001-2011 77 6.1 Life time international migrants in million cities, 2001 86 6.2 Percent life time migrants to total population in million cities, 2001 89 41
6.3 Percentage of migrants by streams in million cities, 2001 91 6.4 Percentage of migrants in total migrants in million cities, 2001 93 6.5 Reasons of migration in million cities, 2001 94 7.1 Slum configuration in Indian states/union territories, 2001 107 7.2 Concentration of slums in million cities, 2001 110 7.3 Configuration of slum population in million cities, 2001 112 8.1 Work participation rate in million cities, 2001 123 8.2 Percentage distribution of main workers under four economic categories, 2001 125
Fig. No. List of Figures Title Following Page 0.1 Location of million cities in India 2001 and 2011 6 1.1 Origin of million cities in India 16 2.1 Million cities in the world, 2011 25 2.2 Million cities in India, 2011 27 2.3 Urban Primacy in India, 2011 29 2.4 Per capita income FDI Equity Inflows (2010-11) and change of per capita income (Xth and XIth plan) and million cities population (2001-2011). 2.5 Growth of population in million cities 34 2.6 Annual exponential growth rate of million cities, 1901-1951 33 2.7 Annual exponential growth rate of million cities, 1951-1991 35 2.8 Annual exponential growth rate of million cities 1991-2011 39 2.9 Absolute increase and exponential growth rate of million cities, 2011 3.1 Scheduled Castes in India and million cities, 2001 48 3.2 Scheduled Tribes in India and million cities, 2001 50 4.1 Trend of sex ratio, 1901-2011 58 4.2 Pattern of sex ratio in million cities and urban areas, 2001-2011 59 4.3 Pattern of sex ratio in million cities and rural areas, 2001-2011 59 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 Pattern of child sex ratio in million cities and urban areas, 2001-2011 Pattern of child sex ratio in million cities and rural areas, 2001-2011 Change of general and child sex ratio in million cities and urban areas, 2001-2011 Change of general and child sex ratio in million cities and rural areas, 2001-2011 5.1 Urban literacy in India, 1951-2011 73 5.2 Pattern of literacy rate in million cities, 2001-2011 75 5.3 Pattern of male literacy rate in million cities, 2001-2011 75 5.4 Pattern of female literacy rate in million cities, 2001-2011 77 31 41 61 61 63 63
5.5 Gender disparity in literacy rate in million cities, 2001-2011 77 6.1 Migration streams 81 6.2 Life time international migrants in million cities, 2001 84 6.3 Percentage of total migrants in million cities, 2001 88 6.4 Percentage of rural life time migrants in million cities, 2001 92 6.5 Percentage of urban life time migrants in million cities, 2001 94 7.1 Concentration of slums and urban population in India, 2001 108 7.2 Slum population in million cities and urban areas, 2001 110 7.3 Slum and urban concentration in million cities, 2001 112 8.1 Work participation rate in million cities and urban areas, 2001 117 8.2 Percentage of male worker in million cities and urban areas, 2001 119 8.3 Percentage of female worker in million cities and urban areas, 2001 8.4 Percentage of main worker in million cities and urban areas, 2001 123 8.5 8.6 Percentage of main male worker in million cities and urban areas, 2001 Percentage of main female worker in million cities and urban areas, 2001 121 125 127
Introduction The study of human population has always remained an area of interest among social scientists particularly since the term demography was first coined by Achille Guillard in 1855 in the article titled Elements de statistique humaine ou demographique comparee (Shryock and Siegel, 1971). However, the real start of population studies was made with the publication of John Graunt s research paper titled, Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality (Gyawali, 1997). Demography is the study of human population, especially with reference to size, density, distribution, composition and spatial or temporal change in them in response to birth, death, migration and ageing. Contemporary demographic concerns include the population explosion, the interplay between population and economic development, the effect of birth control, urban congestion, illegal immigration and labour force statistics (New Encyclopedia Britannica, 1993). A widely used calculation of demography is the population forecast, which undertakes to predict within broad limits of the probable size of a total population and its constituent part for selected future year periods. By using this predication both business and government can anticipate future needs for housing, schools, community services, employment opportunities and a wide variety of commodities (Encyclopedia International, 1982). The world of 21st century is an urban world. Contemporary urbanization is characterized by concentration of urban population in large cities. Industrial revolution, by its very nature, promoted organized industries and services in large cities to benefit from the economies of scale, agglomeration and urbanization. Million plus cities are the spatial expression of a variety of economic, socio-cultural and technological forces operating at the global and national level. In this age of globalization and liberalization million cities all over the world have a distinct role to play towards a sustainable urban future. Indian million plus cities present commonalities as well as uniqueness in evolution, growth, internal structure and development problems of strained civic amenities and lack of resources, problem of population pressure, poverty, shortage of housing, drinking water and work opportunities. Research Problem Urbanisation has become a worldwide phenomenon in the current century all over the world. The share of world s population living in urban areas has increased continuously from 29.1% 1
in 1950 to 52.1% in 2011. The United Nations report shows that by 2025, more than 58% of the world s population will live in urban areas. The developed countries of the world have already achieved a high level of urbanisation while developing countries like India are showing signs of tremendous growth in their urban population continuously. In 1950 there were only 70 cities with million plus inhabitants in the world. These cities contained 745 million persons constituting 23.7 percent urban population. The number of such cities had increased to 456 comprising 3632 million persons and sharing 39 percent of the world urban population in 2011. In comparison, India had 5 million plus cities in 1951 inhabited by 11.8 million persons. The share of these cities in the total urban population was 11.8 percent. The 2011 census recorded 53 cities each with million plus population containing 160.7 million persons and 42.6 percent urban population. Thus even with relatively low urbanisation, the size of urban population is enormous reflecting the magnitude of urban management problems in India. At the beginning of the 20 th century, India had only one tenth urban population. At the time of Independence it was around one sixth. In absolute figures, the urban population of India, 377 million in 2011, is the world s second largest after China whose urban population is 681 million. Importantly, during the last sixty years the population of the country has grown two and half times, while the urban India has grown six times. Emerging patterns of urbanization and population distribution in the different size class towns in India constitute a major topic for scientific and policy oriented research. In India, new patterns are emerging which creating major dilemmas for social and economic planning. Regional contrasts in levels and trends of urbanization are significant, reflecting different historical, cultural, demographic and social-economic conditions. Thus, an uncontrolled and unplanned urbanization may not only make the city life deplorable but may cause serious damage to the physic-socio-economic environment of the surrounding area. Industrial revolution and technological advancement after Independence of India have promoted the development of urban centres. The concentration of social, economic and commercial activities in the towns and cities have resulted in the growth of small, medium towns and metropolitan areas. Rapid growth of million plus cities, particularly, in comparison to the smaller urban places reflects a skewed pattern of urbanisation in India. Economies of scale, wide consumer 2
market, improved economic infrastructure and historical advantage leads to the concentration of economic activities in big cities. In the absence of a clear urban policy for the development of small and medium towns, the population movement and resource flow has continued in favour of large cities. Despite the economic importance, the metropolitan areas also face an excessive concentration of urban population that has been instrumental in giving rise to plethora of urban problems like creation and proliferation of slums, scarcity of water and electricity and other civic amenities and most importantly leading to the deterioration of the physical environment of our cities (Nath, 2007). Thus, developing suitable strategies for management of rapid urban growth constitute major challenges for the planners and policy makers. It is a common perception that million cities continue to struggle with population growth, high density of population, low sex ratio, migration, employment, slums and housing. It should be remembered that the population study is important not only for the provision of various socio-economic facilities but also for the process of population planning and family welfare. A modest attempt is intended to the understanding of population aspect of India s million cities to further enable the formulation of strategies and policies, which could solve the emergent and emerging problem of these cities. Objectives of the Study The main objective of the present study is to make a comprehensive analysis of various demographic characteristics namely size of population, its distribution and growth, composition of population by sex, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes and workforce, migration and slums in million plus cities. Concept and Definitions As per Census of India 2011, the definition of urban area is as follows; 1. All places with a municipality, corporation, cantonment board or notified town area committee, etc. and 2. All other places which satisfied the following criteria: i) A minimum population of 5,000; ii) At least 75 per cent of the male main working population engaged in non-agricultural pursuits; and 3
iii) A density of population of at least 400 persons per sq. km. The first category of urban units is known as Statutory Towns. These towns are notified under law by the concerned State/Union Territory Government and have local bodies like municipal corporations, municipalities, municipal committees, etc. The Census recognizes three categories of urban places: metropolitan areas, cities and towns. Its typology of urban places is entirely based on the population criterion. Thus, the term metropolitan area is applied to places with a population of ten lakh and above whereas city refers to places with population one lakh and above in India. Lower down the population size urban places are designated as towns (Ramachandran, 2007). A city with a population of one million is called million city. An urban agglomeration is a continuous urban spread constituting a town and its adjoining outgrowths (OGs), or two or more physically contiguous towns together with or without outgrowths of such towns. It must consist of at least a statutory town and its total population (i.e. all the constituents put together) should not be less than 20,000 as per the 2001 Census. In varying local conditions, there are similar other combinations which have been treated as urban agglomerations satisfying the basic condition of contiguity. Examples: Greater Mumbai UA, Delhi UA, etc. An out growth (OG) is a viable unit such as a village or a hamlet or an enumeration block made up of such village or hamlet and clearly identifiable in terms of its boundaries and location. Some of the examples are railway colony, university campus, port area, military camps, etc., which have come up near a statutory town outside its statutory limits but within the revenue limits of a village or villages contiguous to the town. While determining the outgrowth of a town, it has to be ensured that it possesses the urban features in terms of infrastructure and amenities such as pucca roads, electricity, taps, drainage system for disposal of waste water, educational institutions, post offices, medical facilities, banks etc. and physically contiguous with the core town of the UA (Govt. of India, 2011). Data Source and Methodology Methodology is central part of any research work which helps in scientific description, interpretation and explanation of reality. A systematic approach has been applied for the present research. The data is collected from secondary sources mainly Census. The focus of work is on the population characteristics of the million plus cities of India. In order to explain the different features of demographic attributes, percentage and ratio have been calculated, tabulated and mapped with the help of suitable cartographic techniques. The data for this 4
study gathered from secondary sources mainly Census publications, brought out by Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Government of India. These are: Census of India, 1991. Part-II A (ii) Towns and Urban Agglomerations classified by population in 1991 with variation since 1901. Census of India, Primary Census Abstract 2001, series -1, India (UAs/Town). Census of India 2001, Slums Data II, India (UAs/Town). Census of India 2001, Migration Tables, D- 3 (UAs/Cities). Census of India, Primary Census Abstract 2011, (India/States) Census of India 2011, Provisional Population Totals (UAs/Cities). United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, 2011. Data obtained from different sources is processed using suitable statistical techniques for the analysis. The following is the detail of techniques used in the present study: Growth rate (r) (r) = (P t P 0 )/ P 0 X 100 P t Initial population P 0 Population before 10 years Annual exponential growth rate (re) (re) = antilog [1/10(log P t+10 P t )]-1 where P t P t+10 = Initial population = Population after 10 years Coefficient of variability (cv) = Mean/Standard Deviation X 100 Urban concentration = urban population of A /total urban population X 100 Slum concentration = slum population of A /total slum population X 100 where A indicates the urban or slum population of a particular state/city 5
Karl Pearson s Rank Correlation Method This method has been used to find out the degree of relationship between urban concentration and slum concentration. Literacy Rate Literacy rate of population is defined as the percentage of literates to the total population age 7 years and above. Literacy rate = Number of Literates ----------------------- x 100 Population aged 7+ Literacy Disparity Index of Kundu and Rao (1985) Gender disparity in literacy of million plus cities is calculated using modified (Kundu and Rao, 1985) Sopher s disparity index. Sopher s method Ds = Log (x 2/ x 1 ) + log (100- x 1/ ) (100- x 2 ) Kundu and Rao Ds = Log (x 2/ x 1 ) + log (200- x 1/ 200- x 2 ) where Ds is gender disparity index, x 1 denotes the percent of literate females where x 2 is the percentage of literate males. Sex Ratio Sex ratio has been defined as the number of females per 1000 males in the population. It is expressed as number of females per 1000 males. Sex-ratio = Number of females ---------------------- x 1000 Number of males Child Sex-ratio (0-6 years) = Number of female children (0-6) -------------------------------------- x 1000 Number of male children (0-6) 6
Work Participation Rate Work participation rate is defined as the percentage of total workers (main+marginal) to total population. Work participation rate = Total Workers (Main+Marginal) ------------------------------------x 100 Total Population Study Area The study is conducted for Indian million cities. India is the second most populous country, comprising about 17.5 percent population and 2.4 percent total area of the world. There are 53 million cities according to Census 2011. These are located in 28 states, six union territories and the national capital territory. The present study makes use of data pertaining to Census of 2001 and 2011 to understand the population characteristic of million plus cities. In building a perspective, a longer time frame has been considered wherever necessary. However, in case of slums, migrations, working population and scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, the data have been used for 35 million plus cities as per 2001 census. Organisation of the Study Keeping in view the objectives of the study, the subject matter is proposed to spread over nine chapters for the cities with million plus inhabitants of India. Introduction includes an account of research problem, study area, objectives, database and methodology and plan of study. Chapter first dwells an origin and regional setting of million cities. The second chapter comprehensively deals with the trends and spatial pattern of distribution and growth in million plus cities of India. Chapter third focuses on Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes population. The fourth chapter examines the sex composition of population and fifth chapter explain the spatial pattern of literacy rate. In the sixth chapter migration has been discussed. Chapter seventh highlights the concentration and spatial pattern of slum population. Eighth chapter informs the workforce structure and last chapter of study refers to the summary and conclusions of the whole study. This study has been systematically organised in the following manner: 7
Introduction Chapter 1: Origin and Regional Setting Chapter 2: Distribution and Growth of Population Chapter 3: Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes Chapter 4: Sex Composition of Population Chapter 5: Literacy Chapter 6: Migration Chapter 7: Slum Population Chapter 8: Workforce Structure Chapter 9: Summary of Conclusions References and Bibliography Appendices 8