Flash Eurobarometer 149 European Commission Post-referendum in Sweden Fieldwork 23 24. September 2003 Publication October 2003 Flash Eurobarometer 149 - Taylor Nelson Sofres. Coordination EOS Gallup Europe Survey requested and coordinated by Directorate General Press and Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors.
FLASH EUROBAROMETER 149 Post-referendum in Sweden Conducted by EOS Gallup Europe upon request of the DG Press and Communications of the European Commission Survey organized and managed by DG Press and Communication (Opinion polls, Press reviews, Europe Direct) This document does not reflect the views of the European Commission. Any interpretations or opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors alone. SURVEY: 23-24 September 2003 ANALYTICAL REPORT: October 2003
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 1 PRESENTATION...2 1. Analysis of the participation in the referendum... 4 1.1 A high turnout rate: Swedes mobilised by this important European issue... 4 1.2 The abstaining population: Who did not vote in the referendum and why?... 6 1.3 The interest in the referendum... 8 1.4 Sufficiently informed voters... 10 2. For or against the Euro? A recall of the vote in the referendum... 12 2.1 Who voted against the adoption of the Euro?... 12 2.2 At what point did the voters make up their minds?... 16 2.3 Influence of others... 18 3. The opinion on the Euro and the European Union... 20 3.1 Key elements influencing voters in the referendum... 20 3.2 The opinion on the Euro... 22 3.3 The opinion on the European Union... 24 3.3.1 The image of the European Unions institutions... 24 3.3.2 The EU and decision-making... 28 3.3.3 Overall approval of Swedish membership in the European Union... 30 4. The future of the Euro in Sweden... 32 4.1 Satisfaction with the final result of the referendum... 32 4.2 Will Sweden end up adopting the Euro?... 34 CONCLUSION...35 TECHNICAL NOTE QUESTIONNAIRES
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 2 PRESENTATION A nationwide referendum on the adoption of the Euro was held in Sweden on September 14 th 2003. As the outcome of this referendum has shown, Sweden has once again decided to stay out of the European Monetary Union. Final results show that among a very high turnout rate of over 82%, the No vote, with close to 5 of the population, largely dominated the Yes vote, representing 42% (2% voted blank or null). Many reasons that led to the rejection of the common currency in Sweden remain unexplained. Was the Swedish population lacking of information on the Euro, or on the contrary, was the choice of vote during the referendum a well thought out decision? The context in which this referendum took place was extraordinary due to the assassination, just three days before the ballot, of Sweden s Foreign Minister Anna Lindh, a strong supporter of the Yes vote to the Euro adoption. Can we say that this tragic event had any influence on the voter s choice? In this context, the PRESS General Directorate of the European Commission wished to organise a post-referendum survey among the Swedish population of voting age, in order to further understand the results of this referendum as well as the voter s decisions on why the Euro was rejected. On the 23 rd and 24 th of September 2003, only 10 days after the referendum on the adoption of the Euro, EOS Gallup Europe and its partner institute in Sweden TNS Svenska Gallup, conducted a survey among the Swedish population aged 18 years and over. The main objective of this survey is to understand the motivations, which led the majority of voters to vote No, thus rejecting the common currency and staying out of the monetary union. The analysis of the surveys results will try to put forth the reasons for the rejection of the common currency. The following topics will be studied: The participation in the referendum Analysis of the voter s choice Opinions on the Euro and the European Union in general The future of the Euro in Sweden The following pages will present the main results obtained. Along with the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents namely, gender, age, education, occupation and locality type, we have also included the respondents political characteristics, namely the proximity to political parties of the respondents. We have kept the original Swedish names of the main political parties in Sweden, which are: Moderaterna (Conservative), Folkpartiet (Liberal), Centern (Center), Kristdemokraterna (Christian Democrats), Miljöpartiet (Greens), Socialdemokraterna (Social Democrats) and Vänsterpartiet (Left). We have also crossed results of the survey with the respondents choice of vote in the referendum and their approval or disapproval of Swedish membership in the European Union. The sample size of this survey amounts to 1000 respondents. The methodology used is that of Flash Eurobarometer telephone interviews. A technical note pertaining to the way the TNS Svenska Gallup conducted interviews is found at the end of this analysis. It provides further details on interviewing methods as well as statistical margins of error.
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 3 Q1. Did you vote in the Referendum on the Euro? YES / OUI NO / NON TOTAL SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes Women/Femmes AGE 18-24 25-39 40-54 55 & + EDUCATION 15 & - 16-20 21 & + OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt Employee / Employé M anual worker / Ouvrier Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT M etropolitan areas Towns / Villes Rural zones / Zones Rurales POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna Folkpartiet Centern Kristdemokrat. M iljöpartiet Socialdemokrat. Vänsterpartiet None EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve Disapprove 60% 81% 81% 82% 7 90% 8 8 81% 8 8 90% 81% 7 7 8 81% 8 8 9 72% 83% 8 93% 73% 82% 8 40% 19% 19% 1 2 10% 13% 13% 19% 1 1 10% 19% 23% 23% 1 19% 1 13% 2 1 1 2 1 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 4 1. Analysis of the participation in the referendum In this first chapter, we will analyse the participation in the referendum. First, we will observe the population categories that participated in the referendum as well as those who abstained from voting. Then, we will try to rate the importance of the issue in question at this referendum, in the opinion of the Swedish population. 1.1 A high turnout rate: Swedes mobilised by this important European issue - Over 80% of Swedes of voting age participated in the referendum: a clear sign of interest - The official turnout rate for this referendum, representing over 82% of the Swedish population eligible to vote, demonstrates a high interest and involvement of the Swedish population in European issues. We can compare this enthusiasm to that of another referendum, which took place in 1994 concerning the entry of Sweden into the European Union, where turnout was equally high with approximately 83%. As it is often the case in post-election surveys, we noted an exaggeration of voters turnout in our study. In order to match as closely as possible to the reality of the Swedish Referendum, we weighted the results of this study with the official turnout figures. The result of this weighting process gives us a reconstructed turnout figure of 81%. We will use this figure in order to compare any important discrepancies among the different categories of population studied throughout this report. When analysing the socio-demographic characteristics of the population that voted, we can note that both men and women participated at an almost equal rate in the referendum, correspond to respectively 81% and 82%. However, strong discrepancies can be observed among the age categories. In fact, we can note that among the youngest population of voting age, namely those aged 18 to 24 years, only 60% voted in this referendum. This result is over 20 percentage points below the average turnout rate in Sweden (81%). At the same time, the age category that was the most fervent to vote were populations aged 40-54 years, with 90% turning out to vote, closely followed by the eldest populations, 55 years and over, with 8 turning out to vote. Among the different categories of occupation, we can note that employees had the strongest urge to vote, with a rate of 90% participating in the referendum. On the contrary, populations without a professional activity were less motivated, since only 7 of respondents in this category indicated having voted in the referendum. The political characteristics of respondents show us that those close to the Centre party ( Centern ) as well as to the Left party ( Vänsterpartiet ) had the highest turnout rate in the referendum, at respectively 9 and 93%. Lowest turnouts in this category can be observed among persons close to the Christian Democratic party (Kristdemokrat.), with 72%, and those persons who indicated not having any particular proximity to any political party whatsoever (73%). Finally, among the populations who either approve or disapprove of Sweden s EU membership of Sweden, voting turnout at the referendum seemed to be slightly stronger among those disapproving of EU membership (8) than among those approving it (82%). To summarize, here are the categories of population that voted the least during the referendum: - The youngest populations aged 18 to 24 (60%) - The persons sympathising with the Christian democratic party (72%) - Those without any political party proximity (73%) - Persons without a professional activity (7) - Persons living in metropolitan areas (7)
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 5
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 6 1.2 The abstaining population: Who did not vote in the referendum and why? - Lack of interest in politics, one of the main reasons for abstention in the referendum - Although the voter turnout was very high for this referendum, it is interesting to analyse why the remaining 1 of the population did not participate in the referendum. As seen earlier, the categories of population among which a significant portion did not vote are the youngest aged 18 to 24, as well as certain of those aged 25 to 39, those without a professional activity and generally those without any particular proximity to a political party. Respondents were asked to indicate, among a list of statements, which of them came closest to their reason for not voting. Reasons for not voting in the referendum % of total abstaining population You really intended to vote but circumstances on the day prevented you 3 You are just not interested in politics 2 You are not interested in this Euro related matter 9% You found it hard to understand this Euro matter There was no point in voting because there is no real democracy in Sweden There was no point in voting because it was obvious that the "No" would be 3% chosen anyway [OTHER Specify] 11% [DK/NA] Results show that although a relative majority of the abstaining population explain their non-vote due to circumstances on the day of the vote (3), we must nevertheless note that 2 of respondents indicated simply not being interested in politics as the main reason for abstaining: a feeling mostly expressed by women, people under 39 years of age, those without a professional activity and those opposed to Sweden s membership of the EU. In fact, only 9% of those abstaining declare that they were simply not interested in the Euro. In other words, non-voters position themselves more in relation to their attitude towards politics than in relation to the specific issue of this Referendum.
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 7 Q.7 How interested were you in the Referendum on the adoption of the Euro by Sweden that was held on September 14th? Very interested Rather interested Rather not interested Not interested at all DK/NA TOTAL 29% 4 19% SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes 31% 42% 20% Women/Femmes 2 4 19% AGE 18-24 1 5 1 1 25-39 30% 4 1 40-54 32% 42% 23% 55 & + 31% 40% 20% 9% EDUCATION 15 & - 20% 3 32% 12% 16-20 23% 50% 19% 21 & + 40% 41% 1 OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt 4 3 9% Employee / Employé 3 43% 1 M anual worker / Ouvrier 19% 49% 2 Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. 2 41% 21% 11% LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT M etropolitan areas 32% 4 13% 10% Towns / Villes 30% 42% 20% Rural zones / Zones Rurales 22% 4 2 POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna 32% 43% 19% Folkpartiet 32% 4 1 Centern 21% 51% 19% Kristdemokrat. 39% 51% 9% M iljöpartiet 2 40% 23% 10% Socialdemokrat. 31% 4 22% Vänsterpartiet None 22% 39% 30% 4 2 21% 1 VOTE REFERENDUM Yes / Oui 3 4 1 No / Non 29% 4 21% EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve 32% 4 1 Disapprove 2 43% 21% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 8 1.3 The interest in the referendum - 73% of voters indicated being interested in the referendum - When asked to rate their level of interest in this referendum on the adoption of the Euro, results show that a vast majority of the total Swedish population eligible to vote indicated being interested in this referendum. The total rate of populations very interested and rather interested seems to be much higher than that of populations rather uninterested and not interested at all, at 73% against 2. We can thus consider that a vast majority of Swedes was interested in the topic of this vote and the importance of the issue, which may well explain the high turnout rate. The analysis of results by socio-demographic characteristics shows only few differences from the total average. In the age categories, the only notable difference can be observed among the youngest populations, among which the rate of persons indicating being very interested (at a rate of 1) in the referendum is much lower than among the other age categories. This rate is approximately half the average of the other age groups (at approximately 30%). This may well explain the lower turnout rate of this age category. Strong discrepancies can be observed among the education levels. While only 5 of those having been educated until the age of 15 years or less indicate having been interested in the referendum, 81% of those having studied the longest, namely until the age of 21 or over, indicate that they were interested in the referendum. Furthermore, the most educated are twice as likely (40%) to indicate that they were very interested in the referendum than the least educated (20%). Among the categories of occupation, manual workers (6) and persons without a professional activity (6) showed significantly less interest in the referendum than employees (81%) and the self-employed (79%). This last category seems to have the highest rate of respondents confirming that they are very interested in the referendum, with 4. Further on, we can observe that populations living in metropolitan areas (7) indicate having showed somewhat more interest than those populations living in towns (72%) or rural areas (6). When studying the political characteristics, we can note that populations who are not close to any party tended to show the least interest in the referendum (52%). In fact, this category of population is the only one to have a significant rate of respondents not interested at all (21%). Here we can conclude that the opinion on the adoption of the Euro is far more accentuated among persons with an interest in political parties. Finally, those who voted Yes in the referendum were slightly more numerous to be interested in this referendum than those having voted No (respectively 81% against 7). As for the approval of EU membership, those in favour (7) show a somewhat higher rate of interest than populations who disapprove of Swedish membership of the EU (70%).
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 9 Q.8a) Before voting in the Referendum, you had all necessary information in order to make a choice? (% AGREE / DISAGREE) AGREE DISAGREE DK/NA TOTAL 71% 2 SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes Women/Femmes 7 6 2 23% AGE 18-24 5 31% 12% 25-39 40-54 6 7 29% 23% 55 & + 7 19% EDUCATION 15 & - 7 19% 16-20 21 & + 70% 72% 2 2 OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt Employee / Employé M anual worker / Ouvrier Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT Metropolitan areas/ Metropoles Towns / Villes Rural zones / Zones Rurales POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna Folkpartiet Centern Kristdemokrat. M iljöpartiet Socialdemokrat. Vänsterpartiet None VOTE REFERENDUM Yes / Oui No / Non 7 7 6 73% 71% 69% 7 70% 71% 7 7 6 73% 7 63% 7 7 20% 2 31% 20% 2 2 19% 2 23% 1 23% 29% 23% 2 23% 1 23% 22% EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve 71% 2 Disapprove 7 23% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 10 1.4 Sufficiently informed voters - A vast majority of Swedish voters indicated being sufficiently informed before voting - Respondents were asked whether they believed that they had all necessary information before voting in the referendum in order to make their choice whether Sweden should adopt the Euro or not. Results show that a large majority, namely 71% of the population agrees with this proposition. In other words, the explanation of the victory of the No seems not to be found in a lack of information about the Euro 1. In fact, both sides of voters declare themselves as equally informed (around 7). When observing the results by socio-demographic characteristics, we can note that some categories show certain discrepancies: Between genders, we can say that men (7) indicate having been more informed than women (6), with 8 percentage points separating these two groups. The different age categories show that the youngest populations seem to agree to a far lesser extent with the fact that they were well informed before the referendum in order to make a choice, at only 5. This rate is 13 percentage points below the total average and 18 percentage points below the rate of the population aged 55 and older (7). This last category shows one of the highest rates of agreement with the fact that they were well informed before the referendum in order to make their choice. Among the occupation categories, manual workers seem far less informed, with only 6 agreeing with the suggestion mentioned above. Along with the youngest populations, the manual workers demonstrate the highest level of disagreement, at 31%. A last observation can be made for populations without any political proximity, among which only 63% agree to the fact that they were sufficiently informed in order to make a choice before the referendum. In short, the only populations that are somewhat reluctant to agree that they had sufficient information before the referendum in order to make a choice are: - Populations aged 18 to 24 years (5) - Those without any party proximity (63%) - Manual workers (6) 1 The first post-referendum survey (Flash EB 108) conducted in Ireland in 2001after the rejection of the Nice treaty in June 2001, showed that a lack of information about this treaty was one of the key factors for the strength of the No side in this country.
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 11 Q.3 How did you vote in the Referendum? Did you vote "YES" in favour of the adoption of the Euro by Sweden or "NO" against it? YES NO BLANK or NULL TOTAL 42% 5 SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes Women/Femmes 3 4 61% 52% AGE 18-24 25-39 40-54 55 & + 40% 3 4 4 60% 62% 5 53% EDUCATION 15 & - 16-20 21 & + 31% 3 51% 6 62% 4 OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt Employee / Employé M anual worker / Ouvrier Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. 5 5 2 39% 43% 42% 70% 59% LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT M etropolitan areas/ M etroples Towns / Villes Rural zones / Zones Rurales 3 40% 52% 6 5 4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 12 2. For or against the Euro? A recall of the vote in the referendum In this second chapter, we will analyse the result of the referendum and what led to the choice of voters. First, we will observe which categories of the population voted for the Euro and which ones voted against the Euro. Then, in a second part, we will see whether the voter s choice was, in anyway, influenced by the different electoral campaigns, by close relations or relatives, or by the tragic assassination of Foreign Minister Anna Lindh just days before the referendum. 2.1 Who voted against the adoption of the Euro? - The No vote backed by a majority of 5 of the Swedish voters - With 5 of the population voting No against the Euro and 42% Yes in favour of the Euro, Sweden has rejected its entry into the European Monetary Union. When analysing the results by socio-demographic and political characteristics, we can note that the No is more pronounced among certain specific categories than others. Between genders, we can note that women (61% voted No ) voted more strongly against the Euro than men (52% voted No ), with a difference of 9 percentage points. Among the different age categories, No votes were more frequent among younger populations than among elder populations. In comparison, 62% of those aged 25 to 39 voted No while only 53% of those aged 55 and older voted No, amounting to a difference of 9 percentage points. The levels of education show that the least educated chose to vote No in far higher proportions than the most educated, at respectively 6 against 4. 21 percentage points separate these two categories. Among the categories of occupation, it is very clear that manual workers massively voted in favour of the No, with a result amounting to 70%. Populations without a professional activity follow with 59% against the Euro. On the opposite, the self-employed and employees predominantly voted Yes in favour of the common currency, with respectively 5 and 5. The locality type also shows disparities between voters, since there is a difference of 19 percentage points separating the No vote between inhabitants of rural areas who are strongly against the Euro (6), and the metropolitans, with only a minority against the Euro (4 voted No ).
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 13 Q.3 How did you vote in the Referendum? Did you vote "YES" in favour of the adoption of the Euro by Sweden or "NO" against it? YES NO BLANK or NULL TOTAL 42% 5 POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna 6 3 Folkpartiet 6 31% Centern 23% 7 Kristdemokrat. 4 5 M iljöpartiet 1 80% Socialdemokrat. 41% 5 Vänsterpartiet 9% 90% None 39% 60% EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve 6 33% Disapprove 9 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 14 The political characteristics of voters show that these divisions are even more accentuated. The strongest disparity can be noted between the two political extremes, the liberal party, namely the Folkpartiet (31% voted No ) and the Left party, namely the Vänsterpartiet (90% voted No ). A significant difference of 59 percentage points separates the rate of No votes between these two political tendencies. Furthermore, it is interesting to note that among supporters of certain political parties such as the Christian Democrats or the Social Democrats those close to these parties were quite divided as to their choice of vote during the referendum. For example, 41% of those close to the Social Democratic party voted Yes in favour of the Euro, and 5 No against it. Along with the population close to the Left party, the Green party ( Miljöpartiet ) followers also massively voted against the Euro (80%). Finally, another important disparity can be noted between those populations approving EU membership (33% voted No ) and those disapproving it (9 voted No ), since here again, 62 percentage points separate these two groups of population. It is therefore more than possible that the attitude towards the EU in general has play a decisive role in voters choice. We will come back to this later on. To sum up, the most fervent No voters during the referendum were : - Women (61%) - Populations aged 25 to 39 (62%) - Populations educated until the age of 15 years or less (6) - Manual workers (70%) - Populations living in rural zones (6) - Populations close to the Left party (90%) and the Green party (80%) - Populations disapproving of Sweden s EU membership (9) While the most fervent Yes voters were: - The highly educated populations (51%) - The self-employed and the employees (5 and 5) - Populations living in metropolitan areas (52%) - Populations close to the Moderaterna party (Conservative party) and the Folkpartiet (Liberal party) (6 and 6)
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 15 Q.4 Can you roughly tell me when did you make up your mind how you would vote in the Referendum on the adoption of the Euro by Sweden? At the time the Referendum w as announced Fairly early on during the Referendum campaign In the final w eeks of the campaign A few days before the death of Mrs Anna Lindh, late Minister of Foreign Affairs After the death of Mrs Anna Lindh, late Minister of Foreign Affairs On the day of the of the Referendum itself DK/NA TOTAL 3 3 1 SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes 39% 3 1 Women/Femmes 3 33% 20% AGE 18-24 3 40% 21% 25-39 32% 30% 2 40-54 3 3 1 55 & + 4 33% 1 EDUCATION 15 & - 50% 2 1 16-20 3 3 1 21& + 33% 3 19% OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt 49% 19% 19% Employee / Employé 3 3 1 Manual worker / Ouvrier 29% 40% 22% Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. 4 30% 1 LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT Metropolitan areas/ Metroples 31% 33% 20% Towns / Villes 40% 3 1 Rural zones / Zones Rurales 41% 32% 1 POL. PROX./ PROX PART. Moderaterna 51% 30% 12% Folkpartiet 3 30% 19% 9% Centern 4 32% 1 Kristdemokrat. 43% 32% 19% Miljöpartiet 41% 2 1 Socialdemokrat. 30% 3 23% Vänsterpartiet 3 4 1 None 4 2 1 VOTE REFERENDUM Yes / Oui 3 2 22% No / Non 41% 3 1 EU MEMBERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve 32% 3 22% Disapprove 50% 3 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 16 2.2 At what point did the voters make up their minds? - 72% of voters indicate having made their choice early on before the referendum - Respondents were asked at what point in time roughly, they had made up their mind on how they would vote in the referendum. Results show that a vast majority of voters had already made up their mind on how they were going to vote far before the referendum took place. While 3 indicate having made up their mind at the time the referendum was announced, 3 admit that they already knew how they were going to vote fairly early on during the referendum campaign. This result may also allow us to conclude that the electoral campaign, especially the Yes vote campaign, was not very successful in convincing voters. This hypothesis is supported by the fact that 2 of the voters for the Yes indicated to have made up their mind early on during the Referendum campaign while they are 3 in this case in the No side. Another question that remained after the referendum, was to find out whether the assassination of Sweden s Foreign Minister Anna Lindh, just days before the vote, had in anyway influenced the voters, knowing that Mrs Anna Lindh was a fervent Yes campaigner, and very much in favour of the Euro. Results of this post-referendum survey show that only of voters declared having made up their mind in the last days of the referendum or on the day of the referendum itself, and only 2% directly after the assassination of Mrs. Anna Lindh. Following these results we can suppose that this tragedy seems to have had very little influence on the choice of voters. When analysing the results in details, certain disparities between population groups can be observed. In the age category, we can note that an appreciable amount of the population aged 25 to 39 years (39%) only made up their mind in the final weeks of the referendum campaign or later. Among the education levels, populations with the lowest level of education seemed to have a larger share (7) of persons having made up their minds early on during the referendum campaign than populations with the highest level of education (6). The locality type shows that people living in metropolitan areas (6) had a lesser tendency to make up their minds early on in the referendum campaign than those living in towns (7) or rural areas (73%). Results by political characteristics of voters show that those close to the Social Democratic Party (3) and to the Folkpartiet (Liberal party) (30%) had a larger share of persons making up their minds in the final weeks or days before the referendum, than persons close to other parties. On the contrary, those sympathising with the Moderaterna party (Conservative party) and the Vänsterpartiet (Left party) seem to have a strong majority which had a clear vision from early on, on how to vote (respectively 81% and 79%). Finally, results as to the approval of EU membership show that those disapproving Sweden s membership to the EU are far more numerous (8) to indicate they had made up their minds early on during the referendum campaign than those approving EU membership (6).
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 17 Q.6 Did anyone, for example a friend, a member of your family or someone at work try to convince you how to vote in the recent Referendum? Yes, a friend Yes, a family member Yes, someone at w ork Yes, someone close to you No, no one tried to convince you DK/NA TOTAL 81% SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes 9% 81% Women/Femmes 10% 81% AGE 18-24 11% 13% 6 25-39 13% 10% 9% 7 40-54 80% 55 & + 89% EDUCATION 15 & - 9 16-20 9% 7 21 & + 9% 9% 81% OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt 12% 10% 73% Employee / Employé 10% 9% 12% 7 M anual worker / Ouvrier 81% Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. 8 LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT Metroples 11% 11% 9% 7 Towns / Villes 82% Rural zones / Zones Rurales 8 POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna 8 Folkpartiet 13% 1 71% Centern 10% 79% Kristdemokrat. 9% 8 M iljöpartiet 9% 21% 9% 7 Socialdemokrat. 81% Vänsterpartiet 12% 80% None 79% VOTE REFERENDUM Yes / Oui 8 No / Non 82% EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve 80% Disapprove 8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 18 2.3 Influence of others - A clear majority of voters claim no one tried to convince them on how to vote in the referendum - Respondents were asked whether any person close to them, such as a family member or a colleague had tried to influence their choice of vote. Results show that a vast majority of 81% of respondents claim that no one tried to convince them on how to vote. Socio-demographic characteristics however show that certain groups of population indicate having been somewhat more influenced by persons close to them. These groups are mainly younger populations among which a significant amount of respondents claim that someone had tried to convince them: 32% among those aged 18 to 24 and 3 among those aged 25 to 39 years, compared to only 11% among respondents aged 55 years and older. Education levels show that those with the lowest level of education are by far the least to have been influenced by any person close to them, since 9 claim that no one tried to convince them. The categories of occupation show that the self-employed and employees were slightly more to have been influenced by others (3) than manual workers or those without a professional activity (respectively 2 and 1). Results in the locality type show that the proportion of people living in metropolitan areas who claim that someone had try to convince them on how to vote (3) was somewhat higher compared to those living elsewhere. Political characteristics show that people close to the Green Party (42%) and those close to the Folkpartiet (3) seem to have been somewhat more open to persuasion by those with whom they were in close contact.
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 19 Q.5 Could you tell me what was the key element that led to your vote in this Referendum? Your opinion on the Euro Your opinion of those w ho led the "YES" campaign [OTHER] Your overall opinion regarding the European Union Your opinion of those w ho led the "NO" campaign DK/NA TOTAL 32% 52% SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes 33% 52% Women/Femmes 31% 53% AGE 18-24 4 3 25-39 33% 52% 40-54 2 61% 55 & + 32% 51% EDUCATION 15 & - 3 41% 10% 16-20 3 51% 21 & + 2 60% OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt 2 5 Employee / Employé 23% 70% M anual worker / Ouvrier 3 4 Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. 3 4 LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT M etropolitan area/ M etroples 32% 5 Towns / Villes 33% 52% Rural zones / Zones Rurales 29% 52% POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna 32% 5 Folkpartiet 2 6 Centern 31% 4 Kristdemokrat. 1 6 M iljöpartiet 3 53% Socialdemokrat. 3 4 Vänsterpartiet 3 5 None 31% 49% VOTE REFERENDUM Yes / Oui 23% 6 No / Non 39% 4 EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve 33% 52% Disapprove 29% 59% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 20 3. The opinion on the Euro and the European Union In this third part we will try to identify which key elements led voters to make their choice in this referendum, and furthermore, how Swedish voters perceive the Euro and the European Unions institutions in general. 3.1 Key elements influencing voters in the referendum - The opinion on the EU, as the main factor in this vote - Respondents were asked to indicate which was the key element that led to their vote in the referendum on the 14th of September. Total results of the Swedish voting population show that a majority of voters, at 52%, indicate that their overall opinion regarding the European Union was the main element that influenced their vote. Only 32% of voters answered that their opinion on the Euro was the decisive factor in their vote. In order to see whether the vote in the referendum is a vote against the Euro or against the European Union, we can observe the table below where the results of this question are crossed with the vote in the referendum. TOTAL Vote in Referendum Q. Key elements leading to the vote in this referendum YES NO Your opinion on the Euro 32% 23% 39% Your overall opinion regarding the European Union Your opinion of those who led the YES campaign Your opinion of those who led the NO campaign 52% 6 4 2% 1% None of these 3% 2% 3% DK/NA For both the Yes and the No side, we can conclude that the overall opinion on the European Union was the key element, which led to the choice of vote during this referendum on the adoption of the Euro by Sweden. As results show, 6 of voters that expressed a Yes vote indicated having based their choice on the image that they had of the European Union. On the No side, they are somewhat less but still in first place, with 4 to have answered similarly. Other than this, these results also confirm the idea mentioned earlier that the election campaign had very little influence on the choice of Swedes in their vote. The results by socio-demographic characteristics show one main exception to the average results of the total voting population: the youngest population category, aged 18 to 24 years, close to a majority of 4 indicating that the key element was in fact their opinion on the Euro. This rate is 16 percentage points above the total average of the Swedish population. Another observation can be made for the population category of employees, among which we can find the highest rate of persons indicating that their overall opinion regarding the EU was the key element leading to their vote (70%). This rate is 18 percentage points above the total average.
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 21 Q.8 Do you Agree or Disagree with the following statements ( % of respondents) AGREE DISAGREE DK/NA Adopting the Euro w ould make the Sw edish economy stronger 36 49 15 Inhabitants of the Euro zone are happy that the Euro became their currency 39 39 22 Using the Euro w ould make Sw edish people feel more European than today 43 50 7 With the refusal of the adoption of the Euro, Sw eden w ill play a smaller role w ithin the European Union 50 39 11 A new referendum on the adoption of the Euro by Sw eden should be organised again in tw o or three years time 35 59 6 Adopting the Euro w ould cause difficulties to you personally 14 80 6 Adopting the Euro in Sw eden w ould mean losing an important part of Sw edish sovereignty 43 44 13 Adopting the Euro w ill increase prices in Sw eden 58 32 10
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 22 3.2 The opinion on the Euro - Doubts on the true advantages of the Euro - For only one of the 8 propositions tested, a majority of respondents acknowledges the fact that the refusal of the Euro could have negative consequences. For all other statements, respondents are particularly sceptical. We have hereunder compared the response rates of those who agree with those who do not agree. Adopting the Euro would make the Swedish economy stronger : The Swedish population aged 18 years and over seems to disagree more with this statement than to agree, with rates of 49% disagreeing against 3 agreeing. 1 of respondents, nevertheless, did not know or refused to give their opinion. Inhabitants of the Euro zone are happy that the Euro became their currency : For this statement Swedes seem divided since 39% tend to both agree and disagree. The rate of respondents not knowing or refusing to answer is quite logically very high, reaching 22%. Using the Euro would make Swedish people feel more European than today : Results show that one in two Swedes disagree with this statement (50%). There are, however, only 7 percentage points separating those who agree and those who disagree. Only of respondents did not give an answer. With the refusal of the adoption of the Euro, Sweden will play a smaller role within the European Union : Surprisingly, a majority of Swedes tends to agree with this statement, with rates of 50% agreeing and only 39% disagreeing. This result may well show to which level Swedes were informed about the importance of the issue of this vote. Although knowing that without adopting the Euro, Sweden s place in the EU may weaken, voters chose nevertheless to reject the common currency and face the consequences. We must however keep in mind that 11% of respondents did not know or refused to answer. A new referendum on the adoption of the Euro by Sweden should be organised again in two or three years time : A clear majority of Swedes disagrees with the idea of organising an identical referendum in the near future, since 59% of respondents indicate disagreeing with this statement against only 3 agreeing. This result shows that even among those voters, who were in favour of the Euro, a certain acceptation of defeat has emerged. In other words, Swedes are in no hurry to adopt the common currency in their country. Adopting the Euro would cause difficulties to you personally : The Swedes do not fear the Euro in the same way as has been observed in the past for other EU member states, which have adopted the Euro (populations fearing, before the introduction of the Euro, not to know how to handle the new currency). On the contrary, results show that a vast majority of Swedes, with a rate of 80%, believe that adopting the common currency would not cause any difficulties at all for them. 66 percentage points separate those who disagree with this statement from those agreeing with it. Only a mere of respondents did not know or refused to answer. Adopting the Euro in Sweden would mean losing an important part of Swedish sovereignty : The Swedish population seems divided on this issue, since 43% tend to agree with this fact while 4 disagree. We must take into account the somewhat higher rate of respondents who did not know or refused to answer (13%). Adopting the Euro will increase prices in Sweden : Unlike what was mentioned earlier, the Euro does convey a certain fear among an important part of the Swedish population, namely the fear of price increases with the adoption of the Euro. Results show that 5 of respondents agree with this statement while only 32% disagree. We must nevertheless note the rather high rate of respondents not knowing or refusing to answer (10%).
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 23 Q.8b) The institutions of the European Union conjure up a good image to you (% AGREE / DISAGREE) AGREE DISAGREE DK/NA TOTAL 4 4 10% SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes 4 4 Women/Femmes 41% 4 1 AGE 18-24 40% 51% 9% 25-39 43% 50% 40-54 4 4 55 & + 4 39% 1 EDUCATION 15 & - 3 4 1 16-20 40% 51% 10% 21 & + 53% 40% OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt 50% 39% 11% Employee / Employé 51% 43% M anual worker / Ouvrier 40% 5 Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. 42% 43% 1 LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT M etropolitan areas 4 4 Towns / Villes 4 4 11% Rural zones / Zones Rurales 39% 49% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 24 3.3 The opinion on the European Union 3.3.1 The image of the European Unions institutions - Swedes are divided concerning the image of the institutions of the European Union - The respondents were asked to give their opinion on certain aspects concerning the European Union. First, we will see whether Swedes agree that the institutions of the European Union conjure up a good image for them or not. Results concerning the reaction to this statement show that Swedes are somewhat divided on this issue with, nevertheless, a relative majority of 4 indicating that the EU does not conjure up a good image for them, against 4 who think it does. When observing the results by socio-demographic characteristics, we can note certain discrepancies of opinion among the different categories. Among genders, men are slightly more numerous than women to agree that they have a good image of the institutions of the European Union, with respectively 4 against 41%. The different age categories show that the older one is, the more one agrees that the institutions of the EU conjure up a good image. However, only the eldest populations seem to have a relative majority of respondents agreeing with this statement, at 4 against 39% disagreeing. In this same category, we must draw attention to the important rate of respondents who did not know or who refused to answer (1). Among the youngest populations, a majority disagrees with this statement (51%). 11 percentage points separate those who do not have a good image of the European institutions with those who do. In the levels of education, we can note that a good image of European institutions is present among the most educated populations, where a solid majority of 53% confirm that they have a good image of EU institutions. On the contrary, rates among the lowest educated populations show that only a minority agrees with this statement, 3 against 4 disagreeing. We must however note the high rate of non-responses, rising to 1 in this category. The occupation categories show that of the self-employed and the employees, a majority has a good image of EU institutions (respectively 50% and 51%), this is not the case among manual workers, who are a majority to disagree with this statement (5). Those without a professional activity seem undecided (42% agreeing, 43% disagreeing), and seem to have a rather high rate of non-responses equalling 1. The locality type shows that persons living in metropolitan areas and towns tend to be divided on this issue, while those living in rural areas have a relative majority disagreeing with this statement (49%).
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 25 Q.8b) The institutions of the European Union conjure up a good image to you (% AGREE / DISAGREE) AGREE DISAGREE DK/NA TOTAL 4 4 10% POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna 61% 32% Folkpartiet 61% 3 Centern 21% 6 12% Kristdemokrat. 51% 42% M iljöpartiet 1 7 Socialdemokrat. 50% 43% Vänsterpartiet 20% 7 None 29% 52% 19% VOTE REFERENDUM Yes / Oui 73% 23% No / Non 23% 69% 9% EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve 63% 29% Disapprove 1 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 26 Results by political characteristics show that proximity to a specific party is decisive to whether or not people have a good image of the EU institutions. The categories, which show the highest rates of agreement, are populations close to the Moderaterna party and to the Folkpartiet with 61% confirming that EU institutions conjure up a good image for them. To a lesser extent, those close to the Christian-Democratic Party and to the Social-Democratic party are also a majority to indicate having a good image of EU institutions (respectively 51% and 50%). On the contrary, a vast majority of those close to the Centre party, the Left party as well as the Green party indicate that they do not have a good image of the EU institutions, with respectively 6, 7 and 7. This last category of population (the Green party) has a rate of 32 percentage points above the average population disagreeing with this statement. Concerning the vote in the referendum, persons having voted in favour of the Euro are also a strong majority of 73% to indicate having a good image of the EU institutions, while those who voted against the common currency are also a high number to not have a good image of the EU institutions, at 69%. This emphasizes the link between the vote to this Referendum and the general opinion Swedes have on the EU. Finally, concerning EU membership, this category shows that populations in favour secure a rate of 63% of agreement with this statement, while, on the contrary, those disapproving have a total rate of 80% disagreeing, which is 34 percentage points above the total average rate of people disagreeing (4).
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 27 Q.8k) Too many issues are decided on by the European Union (% AGREE / DISAGREE) AGREE DISAGREE DK/NA TOTAL 59% 2 1 SEX-SEXE Men /Hommes 61% 2 1 Women/Femmes 5 2 1 AGE 18-24 25-39 4 5 2 30% 2 1 40-54 55 & + 62% 63% 30% 19% 9% 1 EDUCATION 15 & - 16-20 5 72% 2 13% 1 1 21 & + 5 32% 13% OCCUPATION - PROFESSION Self-empl. / Indpdt Employee / Employé 5 5 32% 3 12% 10% M anual worker / Ouvrier Without prof.act. / Ss act. prof. 6 5 19% 2 1 19% LOCALITY TYPE / HABITAT Metroples 59% 2 13% Towns / Villes Rural zones / Zones Rurales 5 6 2 20% 1 1 POL. PROX./ PROX PART. M oderaterna 52% 3 12% Folkpartiet Centern 53% 69% 32% 20% 1 11% Kristdemokrat. M iljöpartiet Socialdemokrat. 63% 6 62% 20% 2 1 12% Vänsterpartiet None 52% 81% 21% 1 2 VOTE REFERENDUM Yes / Oui 4 42% 13% No / Non 7 1 EU M EM BERSHIP / ADHESION UE Approve Disapprove 49% 80% 3 11% 1 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FLASH EB N 149 «Post-referendum in Sweden» - Report p. 28 3.3.2 The EU and decision-making - In the opinion of a majority of Swedes, the EU decides on too many issues - Respondents were then asked whether they thought too many issues are decided on by the European Union. Total results show that a solid majority of the Swedish population of voting age agree with this statement, at 59% against only 2 who disagree. We must however take into consideration the rather high level of respondents who did not know or refused to answer (1). This perhaps indirectly indicates a lack of information on the role of the EU in particular. Results by socio-demographic characteristics show a few discrepancies among the different categories: In the age category, we can note that the older the population, the more it tends to agree that too many issues are decided upon by the European Union. The rate of agreement among the youngest population equals 4, and then rises to 63% among the eldest populations aged 55 years and above. However, the high rate of respondents who did not know or refused to answer among the youngest age category (2) must be taken into account. The levels of education show a strong disparity between the least educated and the most educated, with a differential of 17 percentage points separating them. Indeed, 72% of those educated until the age of 15 or less, agree with the statement, while only 5 of those having studied until the age of 21 or above agree. The occupation categories show that only manual workers differentiate themselves from the total average rates, with 6 of this category tending to agree with the statement. The results by political characteristics show that populations close to the Left party (Vänsterpartiet) have a very high rate agreeing with the fact that the EU decides on too many issues, with 81%. This rate is 22 percentage points above the total average of the population agreeing with this statement, and represents by far the highest rate among all categories of population. Those with the lowest rate of agreement are populations close to the Moderaterna party, the Folkpartiet and also those without any political proximity, at respectively 52%, 53% and 52%. For this last category, we must draw our attention to the high rate of respondents not knowing or refusing to answer, which represents 2. The vote in the referendum shows once again a very large difference of opinion on this issue. 4 of those having voted Yes, agree with this statement, while 7 of those who voted No agree. This result once again proves that the choice of vote in the referendum is directly linked to the opinion of voters on the European Union. Finally, support of EU membership logically shows contrasting results between those who approve of Sweden s membership and those who do not. Indeed, the population disapproving EU membership also tends to massively agree with the fact that the EU decides on too many issues (80%). On the other hand, only 49% of those who approve EU membership agree with this statement. For this last category, we can observe that the rate of those disagreeing with this statement represents 3. These results reveal once again a certain negative opinion of Swedes towards the European Union. We can therefore suppose that this negative image can partly explain the result of the referendum, and re-emphasise the importance of the opinion on the EU for the choice of vote in the referendum.