MONTANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE POWER-BASE SURVEY Conducted by November 2014 Methodology: A total of 800 telephone interviews were conducted November 13-16, 2014 among a representative sample of voters in Montana. Interviews were conducted using live interviewers and included landline and cell phones. The sampling error is plus or minus 3.5% at the 95% confidence level. SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS Economic Outlook Voters are positive about the direction Montana is headed economically but remain pessimistic about the direction of the country. Optimism about the direction of Montana s economy has prevailed since 2009 and continues today (51% right track/29% wrong track). Voters have been more pessimistic than optimistic about the direction the country is headed in economically since 2009, nonetheless, voters today are much more optimistic than a year ago (39/50% today vs. 23/66% in 2013). Health care costs are the top financial concern for Montana voters today and have consistently been the top financial/pocketbook concern for Montanans since 2009. Perceptions of Montana Chamber of Commerce, Labor Unions, and Environmental Groups Montana s Chamber of Commerce enjoys a positive image among voters statewide, but voters are less positive about labor unions and environmental groups. The Chamber s image is more positive today than in any survey since 2010, with 54% having a favorable and 16% an unfavorable opinion of the group. Still, nearly a third of voters (30%) have no opinion about the Chamber. Opinions of environmental groups remain negative (41% favorable/47% unfavorable), though not as negative as in past years (in 2013 environmental groups image score was 30% favorable/56% unfavorable). Voters continue to have mixed views about labor unions (44% favorable/41% unfavorable). Given a choice of three candidates, 42% would vote for the candidate endorsed by the Montana Chamber of Commerce, 20% for the candidate endorsed by labor unions and 18% for the candidate endorsed by environmental groups. 2130 SW Jefferson St. Ste. 200 Portland, OR 97201 428 4 th St., Ste. 8 Annapolis, MD 21403 503.221.3100 410.216.9856 406.317.1662 www.moore-info.com 1821 South Ave West, Ste. 406 Missoula, MT 59801
Perceptions of Montana Businesses and Natural Resource Industries A wide majority of voters trust that Montana businesses can be expected to do the right thing to protect the environment and treat their workers fairly. There has been no major shift in sentiment on this issue in recent years. In addition, a wide majority of Montana voters say that state government should encourage and promote the timber, oil and natural gas, mining and coal industries because of jobs and economic benefits, rather than restrict and discourage these industries due to potential environmental impact. Though more than six-in-ten voters say Montana should encourage each industry, voters are more likely to support promotion of the timber and oil and natural gas industries than mining and coal industries which has been the case each year since 2009 (2010 for coal question). Coal Industry Issues By a 55-25% margin voters favor development of the Otter Creek Coal Tracts and the railroad infrastructure needed to transport coal to markets. The remaining voters have no opinion (8%) or aren t aware of the Otter Creek Coal Tracts (12%). There is also wide support for development of coal export terminals in Washington State and Oregon to allow increased exports of Montana coal (62% support, 28% oppose, 10% no opinion). Banking When it comes to the top two factors in choosing a financial institution, the most important for voters is local ownership (47%), followed by good customer service (39%), a convenient location (25%) and low ATM/account fees (21%). Other Issues/Priorities By a 69-24% margin, voters believe local governments should have the authority to implement a local option tax if voters approve it, for the purpose of local property tax relief, local infrastructure development and other local needs. Nearly two-in-three voters (65%) oppose the State of Montana charging counties for the rights-of-way for the historic county roads that cross state school trust land, just 13% are supportive and 21% have no opinion. When it comes to what voters would like to see done with Montana s budget surpluses, 45% would spend it and 35% would prefer it be used to provide tax relief. Specifically, 25% of voters would spend it on improving education, while others would give a tax rebate (20%), spend on infrastructure improvements (20%), keep it in a Rainy Day Fund (16%) or permanently cut taxes (15%). On the issue of making the sale price of commercial and residential property in Montana available to the public, 39% support the Legislature changing the law to make the sale price information public but 51% are opposed and 10% have no opinion. On health care, voters support the state providing health care coverage for up to 70,000 un-insured childless adults whose income is below $16,100 per year by a 57-34% margin. Another 9% have no opinion. More details follow. Montana Chamber P-base Report 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic Outlook & Concerns When it comes to a growing vibrant economy with plenty of good paying jobs, voters are pessimistic about the direction of the United States (39% right track, 50% wrong track) ), but voters are optimistic about the direction of Montana s economy; 51% say Montana is on the right track compared to just 29% who say it is off on the wrong track. Current Economic Outlook: U.S. vs. Montanaa Looking at historic trends, voters remain more pessimistic than optimistic about the direction of the U.S.. economy as they have since 2009. However,, voters are more optimistic today than they were a year ago. U.S. Economic Outlook: 2009-2014 3
Voters have been more optimistic than pessimistic about the direction of Montana s economy since 2009. There has been no statistically significant shift in sentiment over the last year. Montana Economic Outlook: 2009-2014 The major differences in sentiment are party related. Democrats are just as optimistic about the direction of the U.S. economy as they are about Montana s economy. However, Republicans and Independents are only narrowly optimistic when it comes to Montana s economy and these voters are widely pessimistic about the direction of the U.S. economy. On another issue, the top financial or pocketbook concern among Montana voters today is health care costs (25%), followed by paying off debt (14%), a secure retirement (13%) and taxes (13%). Fewer report their top financial concern is children s education (8%), job security (6%), energy costs (5%) or housing costs (4%). Health care costs have consistently been the top financial concernn for Montanans since 2009. Top Financial Concern 4
Looking at subgroups, some of the biggest differencess in financial concerns are seen by age. Voters age 18-54 are equally concerned with health care costs and paying off debt, but voters age 55 and older are most likely to be concerned about health care costs. Not surprising, the most likely to be concerned about a secure retirement are voters on the cusp of retiring those age 55-64. Looking at partisan votee behavior we find health care costs are the top pocketbook concernn for Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike. Though not a top concern, Republicans are more likely than Democrats or Independents to be most concerned about taxes. Perceptions of Organizations Voters with an opinion have a positive impression of the Montanaa Chamber of Commerce (54% favorable/16% unfavorable); however, 30% have no opinion. While voters are more familiar with environmental groups and labor unions, opinions are not as positive; environmental groups are viewed more negatively than positively statewide (41% favorable/47% unfavorable) and voters have mixed reactions regarding labor unions (44/41%). Image Ratings The Montana Chamber of Commerce has consistently enjoyed a positive image in each survey since 2010; however, the Chamber s image this year is more positive than in any other past survey. Additionally, the Montana Chamberr of Commerce enjoys a positive image among all subgroups, but enjoys a more positive image outside the Missoula TV Market and among Republicans. 5
Montanaa Chamber of Commerce: Historic Image Ratings Environmental groups in the state continue to suffer from a negative image among voters, as they have since 2010. Men have a negative opinionn of environmental groups, as do Republicans, Independents and labor unionn households. At the same time, environmental groups enjoy a positive image among women, Democrats and teacher s union households. Environmental Groups: Historic Image Ratings Perceptions of labor unions are statistically divided today. Perceptions of labor unions have been negative or divided in each survey since 2010. Regionally, residents of the Billings TV Market are positive about labor unions, but elsewheree sentiment is statistically divided. There is also a gender gap; men are negative but women are positive when it comes to impressions of labor unions. The most significant differences in sentiment are found by partisan vote behavior; majorities of Republicans are unimpressed with labor unions, while wide majorities of Democrats are positive and Independents are divided. Not surprising, union households are favorable about labor unions but non-unionn householdss are divided. 6
Labor Unions: Historic Image Ratings Impact of Candidate Endorsements When voters are asked which of three candidates theyy are more likely to support, a candidate endorsed by the Montana Chamber of Commerce is most popular (for 42%), followed by a candidate endorsed by labor unions (20%) or a candidate endorsed by environmental groups (18%). Another 14% say none and 7% don t have an opinion on the matter. Impact of Candidate Endorsements A plurality or majority of voters throughout every region of the state and men and women alike prefer a candidate endorsed by the Chamber of Commerce. However, the Chamber of Commerce endorsedd candidate is most widely preferred by Republicans, men age 45+ and people who are employed by small businesses (employ less than 50 people). 7
By party, the Chamber backed candidate gets the votee from a wide majority of Republicans and a plurality of Independents. But the Democrat vote is split between the environmental group candidate (36%) and the labor unionn candidatee (31%). At the same time, the only subgroup in which a plurality prefers the labor union candidate is labor union households. The only subgroup to prefer the candidate endorsedd by environmental groups is postgraduates. Perceptions of Montana Businesses Fully 71% of voters say business and industry in Montana can be expected to do the right thing when it comes to protecting the environment, while just 21% disagree. In addition, by a 65-23% margin, voters believe Montana businesses can be expected to do the right thing when it comes to treating workers fairly when decidingg on health care coverage, retirement and other workplace benefits. Montanaa Businesses: Can Be Trusted to do Rightt Thing Looking back at past survey results we find more thann six-in-ten voters in each survey since 2009 have said they believe Montana businesses can be trusted to do the right thing when it comes to protecting the environment. 8
Montanaa Businesses & Protecting the Environment: Historic Ratings Looking at voter sentiment regarding treating workerss fairly when deciding on health care coverage, retirement and other workplace benefits, we find more than six-in-ten voters in each survey since 2009 believee Montana businesses can be expected to do the right thing in these instances. Montanaa Businesses & Fair Worker Benefits: Historic Ratings 9
Montana s Natural Resourcee Industries When it comes to the state s natural resource industries, voters are much more likely to support promoting timber, oil and natural gas, miningg and coal industries because of jobs and economic benefits than they are to support restrictions that discourage them due to environmental concerns. State Government Support of Montana s Natural Resource Industriess As the following chart illustrates, voters have been widely supportive of the timber industry, oil and natural gas industry, mining and coal industries in each off the surveys since 2009, with majorities preferring that state government encourage and promote these industries rather than discourage them. While there has been a very slight decline in support for each over the past year, sentiment remains widely positive. Monitoring sentiment on these questions in future surveys will be important in order to track if this represents a statistically significant shift, or not. Wide majorities of voters have historically favored thee state government encouraging and promoting the timber industry. As the following chart shows, in each survey since 2009 more than three-quarters of voters would encourage and promote the timber industry. The timber industry has garnered more support from voters than the oil and gas, mining or coal industries in each of the past surveys and this year is no different. 10
Timber Industry: Historic Ratings Oil and Natural Gas Industry: Historic Ratings 11
Mining Industry: Historic Ratings Coal Industry: Historic Ratings An overview of subgroups reveals that 53% of voters statewide support government encouragement and promotion of all four of these natural resource industriess because of jobs and economic benefits. By contrast, only 9% of voters would restrict and discourage all four of these industries becausee of potential environmental impacts. The following chart shows key subgroup findings among these two groupss of voters. 12
Montana s Four Major Natural Resource Industries: Key Subgroup Reactions Legislative Issuess When asked what the state legislature s number one priority in January should be, voters rate controlling government spending the top legislative priority (23%), followed by increasing funding for education (19%), improving access to health care (13%), providing property tax relief ( 10%), providing incentives for more natural resource production (10%), improving local infrastructure ( 10%), providing business tax relief (6%) and enacting stricter environment tal laws (3%). Legislative Priorities 13
Regionally, controlling government spending is the topp priority in the Great Falls and Billings TV Markets, but in the Missoula and Butte/ /Helena TV Markets controlling government spending and funding education are equally important. There is also a gender gap; men prioritize controlling government spending but womenn are dividedd between controlling government spending and funding education. By party, Republicans want the legislature focused on controlling government spending but for Democrats increasing education funding is the top priority, and Independents are divided between education funding and controlling government spending. When it comes to what voters would like to see done with Montana s budget surpluses, 45% would spend it and 35% would prefer it be used to provide tax relief. More specifically, 25% of voters would spend it on improving education, whilee others would give a tax rebate (20%), spend on infrastructure improvements (20%),, keep it in a Rainy Day Fund (16%) or permanently cut taxes (15%). Budget Surplus Revenues By gender, women would spend the surplus on education, but there is no consensus among men. By party, Democrats would spend it on education but there is no consensus among Republicans and Independents. On the issue of making the sale price of commercial and residential property in Montanaa available to the public, 39% support the Legislature changing the law to make the sale price information public, but 51% are opposed and 10% have no opinion. Majorities of Republicans and Independents oppose making home sale prices public, but Democrats are divided. 14
Make Home Sale Prices Public? Banking When it comes to the top two factors in choosing a financial institution, the most important for voters is local ownership (47%), followed by good customer service (39%), a convenient location (25%) and low ATM/account fees (21%). Fewer rate the ability to get a loan (13%), familiarity with bank brand name (10%) or referrals (9%) as most important. Choosing a Banking Institution 15
Regionally, a locally owned bank is most important to voters residing in the Missoula and Butte/Helena TV Markets, but in the Great Falls and Billings TV Markets, a locally owned bank is just as important as good customer service. By age, a locally owned bank is more important to voters age 45 and older than it is to younger voters. In addition, the importance of good customer service increases with age. By contrast, the importance of low ATM/account fees and convenience declinee as voters get older. Finally, most likely to depend on referrals are voters age 18-44 - this group is more than twice as likely as older voters to say a referral is most important when choosing a bank (17% vs. 6% among voters age 45+ ). Coal Industry Issues A majority of voters (55%) favor development of the Otter Creek Coal Tracts and the railroad infrastructure needed to transport coal to markets, 25% are opposed and the remaining voters have no opinion (8%) or aren t aware of the Otter Creek Coal Tracts (12%). Sentiment in support of developing the Otter Creek Coal Tracts and railroad infrastructure is not as widespread as a year ago (60-20% in favor vs. 55-25% today), but the majority remain supportive. Development of Otter Creek Coal Tracts Regionally voters residing outside the Missoula and Butte/Helena TV Markets are more supportive than those within those TV markets. Additionally, men and voters age 45 and older are more supportive than women and younger voters. The biggest differences in sentimen are by party; Republicans favor development of the Otter Creek Coal Tracts and railroad infrastructure by a wide 74-10% margin, and majorities of Independents are also supportive (59-21%), but Democrats are narrowly opposed (46-32%). On another coal issue, voters support the developmen nt of coal export terminals in Washington State and Oregon to allow increased exports of Montana coal by a better than two-to-one margin (62% support, 28% oppose, 10% no opinion) ). 16
Development of Coal Export Terminals in Oregonn and Washington By party, Republicans are among the most widely supportive (78-15%), but Independents are also in favor (61-27%) and sentiment among Democrats is divided (43-45%). Other Issues By a 69-24% margin, voters believe local government ts should have the authority to implement a local option tax if voters approve it, for the purpose of local property tax relief, local infrastructure developmen nt and other local needs. Majorities among voters in all subgroups are supportive. Local Option Tax Nearly two-in-three voters (65%) oppose the State off Montana charging counties for the rights-of-way for the historic county roads that cross state school trust land, just 13% are supportive and 21% have no opinion. There is consensus opposition among majorities in all voter subgroups. 17
State Charging Counties for Rights-of-Way On health care, voters support the state providing health care coverage for up to 70,0000 un-insured childlesss adults whose income is below $16,100 per year by a 57-34% margin. Another 9% have no opinion. Democrats are among the most supportive (84-9%) and a majority of Independents also favor the state providing healthh coverage for low-income childlesss adults (55-31%), but Republicans are widely opposed (56-34%). 18
CONCLUSION Our survey of 800 voters statewide in Montana following the 2014 midterm elections reveals Montana s businesses and Chamber of Commerce continue to be well regarded; the image of the Montana Chamber has improved over the last year (receiving its most positive ratings to date), and voters continue to trust Montana businesses to do the right thing in terms of protecting workers and the environment. Though the political climate remains steady, voters economic outlook is slowly improving. Finally, voters support promoting the state s four major natural resource industries due to jobs and economic growth and support development to increase coal exports. Montana Chamber P-base Report 19