Estimation of the Migratory Phenomenon using the Municipal Population Register INE- SPAIN Federico López Carrión

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Transcription:

Estimation of the Migratory Phenomenon using the Municipal Population Register INE- SPAIN Federico López Carrión Chisinau Work Session September 2014

Historical Review Our Municipal Register (PADRON) Methodology of our Migration Statistics Prospective research lines Conclusion

Historical review Previous to 1996 PADRON administrated by Municipalities In 1996 under law, INE centralizes. We get: No duplicates and new registration means deregistration Since 2001 with Population Now-Cast: PADRON first used as source of Migration input Since 2011 published Migration Statistics: PADRON with statistical treatment

PADRON The Municipal Register Mandatory inscription. If you don t Municipality will Actually Registration is popular. Provides basic rights: Medic care, Schooling, etc. No legal side effects: Under privacy law protection Property of the Municipalities but INE coordinates in a central database

PADRON The Municipal Register Records registrations, deregistrations and modifications Part of these registrations and deregistrations are the source of the Migration Statistics. Individualized registers: Passport #, National ID, etc. PADRON allows matching with other sources With PADRON good detection for Immigration

PADRON About of Emigration Detection of Emigration is weaker We detect Spaniards: Nationals Consulate registration We detect Foreigners: In the Spanish Municipality (lack) So Municipalities go in 2 ways: Deregistration due to wrong inscription: Since 2009: Verify after 5 years for EU citizens Deregistration due to expired inscription: Since 2006: renew after 2 years for non EU citizens

Emigration Distribution by deregistration class EMIGRATION COMPOSITION. YEAR 2013 DEI (Foreigners) 24% BCR (Spaniards) 18% BCR (Foreigners) 11% DWI (Foreigners) 47%

ene.-03 abr.-03 jul.-03 oct.-03 ene.-04 abr.-04 jul.-04 oct.-04 ene.-05 abr.-05 jul.-05 oct.-05 ene.-06 abr.-06 jul.-06 oct.-06 ene.-07 abr.-07 jul.-07 oct.-07 ene.-08 abr.-08 jul.-08 oct.-08 ene.-09 abr.-09 jul.-09 oct.-09 ene.-10 abr.-10 jul.-10 oct.-10 ene.-11 abr.-11 jul.-11 oct.-11 ene.-12 abr.-12 jul.-12 oct.-12 ene.-13 abr.-13 jul.-13 oct.-13 DEI Migration Statistics: 0. Registered (PADRON) Monthly external emigration flow of foreigners registered as Deregistrations by Expired Inscriptions 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 Registered flow, (PADRON)

Migration Statistics: 1. Estimation of Emigration Date Monthly external emigration flow of foreigners registered as Deregistrations by Expired Inscriptions 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 ene.-03 abr.-03 jul.-03 oct.-03 ene.-04 abr.-04 jul.-04 oct.-04 ene.-05 abr.-05 jul.-05 oct.-05 ene.-06 abr.-06 jul.-06 oct.-06 ene.-07 abr.-07 jul.-07 oct.-07 ene.-08 abr.-08 jul.-08 oct.-08 ene.-09 abr.-09 jul.-09 oct.-09 ene.-10 abr.-10 jul.-10 oct.-10 ene.-11 abr.-11 jul.-11 oct.-11 ene.-12 abr.-12 jul.-12 oct.-12 ene.-13 abr.-13 jul.-13 oct.-13 Registered flow, (PADRON) Estimation of EMIGRATION DATE

ene.-03 abr.-03 jul.-03 oct.-03 ene.-04 abr.-04 jul.-04 oct.-04 ene.-05 abr.-05 jul.-05 oct.-05 ene.-06 abr.-06 jul.-06 oct.-06 ene.-07 abr.-07 jul.-07 oct.-07 ene.-08 abr.-08 jul.-08 oct.-08 ene.-09 abr.-09 jul.-09 oct.-09 ene.-10 abr.-10 jul.-10 oct.-10 ene.-11 abr.-11 jul.-11 oct.-11 ene.-12 abr.-12 jul.-12 oct.-12 ene.-13 abr.-13 jul.-13 oct.-13 Migration Statistics: 2.Expasion based on reception rhythm Monthly external emigration flow of foreigners registered as Deregistrations by Expired Inscriptions 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 Registered flow, (PADRON) Estimation of EMIGRATION DATE Expansion based on RECEPTION RITHM

ene.-03 abr.-03 jul.-03 oct.-03 ene.-04 abr.-04 jul.-04 oct.-04 ene.-05 abr.-05 jul.-05 oct.-05 ene.-06 abr.-06 jul.-06 oct.-06 ene.-07 abr.-07 jul.-07 oct.-07 ene.-08 abr.-08 jul.-08 oct.-08 ene.-09 abr.-09 jul.-09 oct.-09 ene.-10 abr.-10 jul.-10 oct.-10 ene.-11 abr.-11 jul.-11 oct.-11 ene.-12 abr.-12 jul.-12 oct.-12 ene.-13 abr.-13 jul.-13 oct.-13 Migration Statistics: 3. Adjustment to EU definition Monthly external emigration flow of foreigners registered as Deregistrations by Expired Inscriptions 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 Registered flow, (PADRON) Expansion based on RECEPTION RITHM Estimation of EMIGRATION DATE Adjustment to EU DEFINITION

Prospective Research lines Shared objective: Improve Emigration estimation We help you with your emigrants (our immigrants) You help us with our emigrants (your immigrants) Exchange of registers at individual level Cause we suspect miss emigrants. For example: - Spaniards emigrating for job - Foreigners emigrating back to their countries - Sunseekers emigrating to die back to country

Example of our Migration Statistics

Young Spaniards 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Spaniards emigrating aged 20-29 by host country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 United Kingdom France Germany Switzerland Ireland Netherlands Italy Belgium

Foreigners emigrating back

The richness of PADRON

Conclusion We base our Migration Statistics on PADRON We apply estimation procedures Collaboration is essential for more accuracy Exchange Admin. Registers at individual level

Thank you for your attention! Questions and Suggestions federico.lopez.carrion@ine.es

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