Ireland's new wave of emigration in the 1980s

104 Ireland's new wave of emigration in the s Russell King and Ian Shuttleworth Ireland has experienced one of the most dramatic, and unique, emigration histories of any country in the world. During the 60 to 70 years following the famine the country's population virtually halved (from 8,175,124 in 1841 to 4,390,219 in 1911), due largely to the impact of emigration overseas. Since independence emigration continued more or less unabated until 1971, the main difference being a shift in destination from North America to Britain. Table 1 shows that over the post-independence period the rate of net emigration, as calculated by the intercensus residual method (the balance between total population change and natural change), was greatest during the decade 1951 to 1961 when rates of net loss approached those of the late nineteenth century. Table 1 also shows two features of Ireland's more recent migratory history: the phase of 'net return' during the 1971 to 1979 intercensal period; and the resumption of net emigration during the s. J. A. Walsh (1979) and Homer and Daultrey () have commented on the first of these two features; it is the purpose of this note to describe the 'new emigration' of the s and to offer some evidence on the qualitative changes in the nature of Irish emigration in the last few years. The demographic and economic background to this new wave of emigration may first be sketched in. The Republic of Ireland has a unique demographic situation amongst the member states of the European Community (Coward, ). In it had the lowest density of population of any nation in the EC and the highest proportion of its population below the age of 15, 29.5% (cf. West Germany 15.1%). Within the OECD set of countries only Turkey had a more youthful population. This momentum of demand for employment by young workers flooding out of Irish schools and institutes of higher learning has not been met by a rising supply of jobs. In fact a particular feature of the Insh economy in the s has been its failure to create new jobs (B. M. Walsh, ). Data from the Irish Labour Force Surveys show that between 1979 and, 69,400 jobs were lost, representing a 6% reduction on the 1979 total. Losses in excess of 10% were recorded in the North-West, North-East and South-West regions. In the South-West 64% ofthe net job loss resulted from the sharp decline in agricultural employment. Department of Geography, Trinity College, Dublin 2 Insh Geography 21 (1988) 104-108 0075-0778/88/SO1.00 Geographical Society of Ireland, Dublin. The Census not only confirmed the reemergence of emigration on a large scale (a net loss of 75,000 over the to period) but also signalled the end of a phase of buoyant population growth. Moreover official annual estimates indicate that most of the outflow occurred during the latter years of the period in question (Table 2). The to annual emigration figure 31,000 exceeded the natural increase of 28,000 leading to a fall in total population between April and April of 3,000. This decline is marginal, but significant in that it represents the first such decline recorded in a quarter of a century; the last annual period for which a fall in total population was recorded was 1960 to 1961 when the Irish population reached its lowest ever level of just over 2.8 million. A further interesting demographic feature of the to intercensal period was the contrast between the net growth of the male and female populations, by 38,100 and 55,600 respectively. This can be related to differential emigration rates, the net outflow of males being 12,000 greater than that of females. The outcome of this development has been that the sex ratio of females to males rose above 1,000 (to 1,001!) for the first time in over 80 years (Homer, etal. 1987). The gender differences in emigration rates can be in turn related to employment trends; redundancies in older industrial enterprises dominated by male employees combined with some growm in service-type employment attractive especially to females. In some respects, the continuation of emigration should come as no surprise, for Ireland has consistently failed to provide sufficient jobs for its post-war population. During the 1970s the labour force TABLE I. Ireland: migration rates, 1926-86 Intercensal period 1926-36 1936-46 1946-51 1951-56 1956-61 1961-66 1966-71 1971-79 1979-81 -86 Net migration rate (per thousand population. intercensal annual mean) -5.6-6.3-8.2-13.4-14.8-5.7-3.7 +4.3-0.7-4.3

Changing Ireland 105 TABLE 2 Components of annual population change 1971-86 (all figures in thousands) Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Population change Population since previous year 2978 3024 +46 3073 + 49 3124 + 51 3177 +53 3228 + 51 3272 + 44 3314 + 42 3368 + 54 3401 + 33 3443 + 42 3480 + 37 3504 + 24 3529 + 25 3540 + II 3537-3 Source: Census of Population. Preliminary Report. Dublin. CSO. Components natural increase + 41 + 40 + 31 + 28 of change net migration + 11 + 13 + 20 + 10 + 7-8 + 2-1 - 14-9 - 20-31 was growing at 20,000 per annum, yet even during this economically relatively successful period only about 12,000 net new jobs per year were being created (Drudy, ). The situation has worsened markedly during the recession of the s, and the consequence has been a significant increase in unemployment, leading in turn to renewed emigration. Young people have been especially vulnerable: the numbers of unemployed under 25 years of age more than doubled between the mid 1970s and the mid s to reach more than a quarter of the labour force in that age group. At around 20%, unemployment for all age groups is the highest of any European country. The link between emigration and employment trends in both Ireland and Britain has been statistically proven by B. M. Walsh and others, and confirms the view that the two countries represent, in effect, one single labour market. Irish emigration, and return, has been shown to be related to employment trends in both countries (B. M. Walsh, 1974; Hughes and Walsh, 1976; Kirwan and Nairn, ). The failure of the ecomony to provide satisfactory employment outlets for an increasingly educated young working-age population gives a clue to the major qualitative characteristic of the new emigration, namely its increased percentage of skilled, or at least highly trained, persons, including many graduates. This, it has been claimed, notably by Sexton (1987), marks the emigration of the s as fundamentally different from that observed in the past. The media have reinforced this impression by frequent talk of an Irish 'brain drain'. O'Toole (1988) has called it a case of 'highbrow robbery', whilst Mary Kenny, writing in the Irish Independent (29 November ), has spoken of the "atavistic fear of a haemorrhage of young people"; emigration, she goes on, is "an insult to the land that gave you birth, it is spitting on your heritage". Another characteristic of the new emigration is that it originates increasingly from urban areas, especially the Dublin region, in stark contrast with the emigration of the 1950s which was primarily an outpouring from rural Ireland. The urban origin of the contemporary emigration stream is consistent with its higher skill component, although this point is overplayed by Sexton (1987): the urban bias of the migrant origins probably reflects the increasing urbanisation of the Irish population as much as anything else. Evidence from the Higher Education Authority (HEA) generally supports the notion that Irish emigration is becoming more skilled. Table 3, based on returns by third-level award holders early in the year after graduation, shows that the percentage of graduates who emigrated more than doubled over the period 1978 to ; the same trend was also observable for graduates in possession of a higher degree, more than a quarter of whom emigrated in. In terms of absolute numbers, four times as many degree holders migrated in as in 1978. These figures mask considerable variation in the migration behaviour of graduates from different disciplines. In only 8.6% of business and commerce graduates left Ireland whilst 37.6% of engineers and 71.7% of architects found work abroad. In almost the entire class of electronic engineering graduates from Trinity College, Dublin was recruited by Philips to work in Germany. An increasing proportion of graduate emigrants are moving to continental Europe where computing, engineering and science qualifications are particularly valued. Higher salaries, less punitive tax and enhanced

106 TABLE 3 Graduate emigration. 1978-86 Changing Ireland Year Primary degrees No. emigrating % emigrating No. emigrating Higher degrees % emigrating 1978 1979 296 343 316 311 340 425 708 866 1.111 7.7 8.6 8.0 7.6 8.1 9.4 14.3 16.2 29.5 67 92 81 128 108 137 147 208 231 14.3 18.5 17.0 21.9 15.3 18.8 19.4 27.1 24.4 Source: First Destination of Award Recipients in Higher Education: A Composite Report. Dublin. HEA. various years. Note: For 1978-83 the survey data refer to the situation on 31 st January of the year following graduation; since the timing of the survey shifts to 30th April. The extent of the survey has expanded through the years: award recipients from more institutions have been included in the sample as the survey has developed. These two points weaken the comparability of the data between different years. Third, the data may be suspect to a certain extent because the survey covers all award recipients rather than those who are just Irish nationals. Thus what is recorded as loss of graduates may in some cases be merely the return of foreign students to their homeland. long-term career advancement prospects are the key incentives, as well as a general desire on the part of many young graduates to live for a time in a different culture and environment. West Germany and the Netherlands offer the best prospects not only because of good financial rewards but also because these countries, unlike France and Italy, are willing to offer a multi-lingual work environment. The migration of Irish graduates to other European countries, North America and Australia is also a response to the shortages of certain kinds of skill and expertise in these countries. It has been pointed out (Guardian, 2 September 1987) that the Irish brain drain has been used to offset the British brain drain of its own talented young professionals to highly paid posts in America and the Far and Middle East. The recent shortfall of British graduates, in the context of the booming British economy in the late s, is also exerting powerful pull influences on Irish graduates (Irish Independent, 20 June 1988). By no means all of these emigrants are unemployed or straight from college: some actually give up high status employment in Ireland to go abroad. Some of the reasons for doing this are the small scale and inward-looking nature of Irish society, the high rates of taxation on professional incomes, the better opportunities abroad, and the desire to generally widen horizons and gain experience. The recruitment of Irish graduates especially the most talented has also been stage-managed in recent years by foreign and multinational companies moving into Irish universities and colleges on the 'milkround' the period, usually between Christmas and Easter, when employers descend upon well educated students, picking off the best by offering attractive salaries and fringe benefits. Of the 60 firms visiting Trinity College Dublin on the 1987 milkround, over half were foreign. mainly from Britain, the Netherlands, West Germany and the USA. Leading the 'invasion' were firms like Unilever, Shell, BP, ICI, Philips and Siemens. This multinational brain syphon involves not only science and engineering graduates but also arts, law and social science students many of whom are suitable for jobs in accountancy, banking, personnel, management training, marketing etc. European salaries for science and technology graduates are about 70% higher than the Irish for equivalent jobs, whilst an accountant starting in London would earn at least twice as much as one starting in Dublin (Bermingham, 1987). The recruitment of Irish skilled workers does not necessarily stop at removing the national surplus supply; sometimes it goes further. In spite of the generally poor employment prospects for graduates in Ireland, aggressive recruiting by foreign firms, combined with the 'contagion effect' of skilled people thinking that they must go abroad to get a good job, has resulted in some shortages in the local labour market. The shortage of computer science graduates is one relevant area here (see Irish Independent, 4 September 1987). Against the rather negative view of skilled emigration taken by the media, other bodies are more optimistic. The Industrial Development Authority (IDA) is generally positive about emigration, believing that most graduate emigrants will return to apply their skills, enhanced by foreign experience, to Ireland's development. Following the slogan of the "young Europeans", the IDA point out that many Irish graduates recruited by multinationals could return to head local subsidiaries in Ireland after 5 to 10 years abroad. The bleeding of Irish talent by multinationals could therefore lead to a transfusion of even better skills back again, especially if accompanied by inward investment such as Philips new IR 2.5 R and D centre

Changing Ireland 107 in Co.Dublin. Unfortunately the current signs are that wholesale return is not yet taking place. An IDA/AnCO scheme set up in to give graduates work experience abroad for a period not exceeding two years is now waiting for the graduates to come back. By 1987 only 30% had returned or expressed an interest in returning (Bermingham, 1987). Over the past year a new channel for the Irish brain drain has opened up. This stems from a European Court ruling that European Community nationals studying at British institutions of higher education must be treated in the same way as British students, ie. pay no fees and, in some cases, receive grants from the British government. Going to university or college in Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain is now an attractive proposition to many Irish students, especially those who would have to leave home anyway to attend an Irish institution. More than 10,000 Leaving Certificate students applied for places at British universities in 1987 and in the current year (1988) the number is certain to be higher. The chances are that this will lead to a new brain drain opening up, for there is a strong probability that a high proportion of those who receive their third level education abroad will not return home to get a job but stay in Britain or look elsewhere. It would be a mistake to regard the Irish brain drain as a totally new phenomenon. As early as 1836 concern was expressed that Ireland was losing through emigration too many of its talented and industrious workers. At this time the brain drain consisted of persons such as merchants and skilled craftsmen rather than university graduates, but the 'creaming off effect was nevertheless significant (Mageean, ). In her recent study of the Irish in London, Chance (1987) recognises a group of long-established Irish professional immigrants, many of whom were educated in Britain. Nor should the focus on the 'brain drain' element of the new wave of Irish emigration be allowed to obscure the fact that other forms of emigration have also been increasing in the s. First, an unknown proportion of the s emigrants will be re-emigrants. Typically these are Irish migrants who first emigrated to Britain in the 1950s or 1960s, returned to Ireland during the 1970s, and then decided to go abroad again. This re-emigration may be prompted by difficult economic circumstances in Ireland, or by the cultural problems of readapation when settling 'back home' after a lengthy period abroad, or perhaps by the desire to secure what they perceive as a safer future for their offspring. Second, the more traditional low-skill form of Irish emigration to Britain has also increased. Schoolleavers and other Irish workers who have been unemployed or tenuously employed have tended to drift to the main centres of employment in Britain, especially London. Reports from community centres suggest that the s have seen a great increase in the number of Irish seeking help after unplanned emigration to London. For instance the number of persons seeking assistance at the Irish Centre in Camdcn Town rose from 744 in to 2,799 in 1987. The low skill character of this group is indicated by the fact that more than half of those counselled by the London Irish Centre have no formal examination qualifications whatsoever, having left school without taking either the Intermediate or Leaving Certificate. The tendency of school leavers to be more emigration-prone in the s can also be supported by some relevant data. Table 4 shows how the declining ability of the Irish labour market to absorb school leavers reflected itself first in rising unemployment in the early s and then, in the mid s, in rising emigration. The emigration figures in Table 4 are, in one sense, considerable underestimates, for schoolleavers often wait a while, trying their luck on the Irish labour market or perhaps participating in a youth training scheme before they emigrate. Such 'wait-andsee' emigrants do not feature in Table 4 which records the situation only for the year after leaving school. Many youngsters are considered too young to emigrate at the minimum school-leaving age of sixteen. Thus they tend to leave after some delay, after a period of unsuccessful job searching or a spell in an unsatisfactory job. J. A. Walsh's () recent survey of the migration intentions of 1126 Leaving Certificate students in seven localities in Ireland revealed that 47.6% intended to migrate out of the locality of origin, only 5.2% expected to stay and 47.2% were undecided. However, most of these migration intentions pertained to moves within Ireland; only 15.8% of the sample expressed a preference to work outside of Ireland. Third, there is an increasing trend to emigrate overseas. This is revealed by the significant rise in visa applications to visit countries such as the United States, Canada and Australia. In recent years large numbers of Irish have settled illegally in the USA. As clandestine immigrants estimates of their numbers naturally vary. The US Department of Foreign Affairs favours the figure of 50,000 but Irish immigrant organisations in the US suggest the true number could be as high as 250,000 (Irish Times, 16 June 1988). A new bill sponsored by Senators Edward Kennedy and Robert Simpson proposes to allocate 50,000 new visas to foreign immigrants, and 10,000 of these could be assigned to Irish immigrants, including 'illegals' already living in the United States, since the ability to speak English and the possession of educational qualifications will feature highly in the points system of visa distribution (see Irish Times, 5 February 1988). To conclude, it would seem that the current wave of emigration from Ireland will continue, at least to the end of the decade. Once again, as in earlier generations, emigration is acting as a safety-valve in alleviating the unemployment situation in Ireland. The stress on the 'brain drain' character of recent

108 Changing Ireland TABLE 4 Situation of persons who left Second Level education early in the year following departure from school. -86 Year of survey Total school leavers 64.100 64.700 60.900 61.600 62.600 61.400 64,200 Found jobs in Ireland 43.300 39.100 33.500 26.000 28.800 25.000 28.400 Source: Sexton (1987) Note: The unemployment figures includes those on State manpower schemes. Further education 14.500 16.700 16.700 17,800 17.100 16,800 18,900 Unemployed 4.800 8.100 10.100 16.900 15,100 17.800 14,400 Emigrated 1.400 800 500 800 1.600 1.800 2.600 emigration is, however, largely a media construction and should not be allowed to obscure the fact that the majority of emigrants are the urban or rural poor. Prospects of a dramatic economic recovery such as to stem the tide of those leaving seem gloomy. If the escalating trend in net emigration revealed in Table 2 continues, and if this is paralleled by a continuing decline in the rate of natural increase (from about 40,000 per year in the late 1970s to less than 30,000 per year by the mid s), then the prospect of a quite significant decrease in Ireland's total population is opened up. References BERMINGHAM, J. (1987) Head-hunting the top students, Business and Finance, 28th May 1987, 13-19. CHANCE, J. (1987) The Irish in London, an exploration of ethnic boundary maintenance, in Jackson, P. (ed.) Race and Racism: Essays in Social Geography. Allen & Unwin, London, 124-160. COWARD. J. () Eire, in Findlay. A. M. and White, P. E. (eds.) Western European Population Change. Croom Helm, London, 102-118. DRUDY. P. J. () Migration between Ireland and Britain since Independence, in Drudy, P. J. (ed.) Ireland and Britain since 1922. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (Irish Studies Vol. 5), 107-123. HORNER, A. A. and DAULTREY. S. G. () Recent population changes in Republic of Ireland, Area. 12, 129-135. HORNER. A. A.. WALSH, J. H. and HARRINGTON, V. (1987) Population in Ireland: a Census Atlas, University College Dublin. Department of Geography. HUGHES, J. G. and WALSH. B. M. (1976) Migration flows between Ireland, the United Kingdom and the rest of the world, European Demographic Information Bulletin. 7. 125-49. KIRWAN, F. X. and NAIRN, A. G. () Migrant employment and the recession: the case of the Irish in Britain, International Migration Review, 17, 672-681. MAGEEAN, D. () Perspectives on Irish migration studies. Ethnic Forum. 4, 36-48. O'TOOLE, F. (1988) Highbrow-robbery. Magill. April. 22-26. SEXTON, J. J. (1987) Recent changes in the Irish population and in the pattern of emigration, Irish Banking Review, Autumn, 31-44. WALSH, B. M. (1974) Expectations, information and human migration: specifying an econometric model of Irish migration to Great Britain. Journal of Regional Science. 14, 107-120. WALSH, B. M. () Unemployment: the Demographic Dimension. University College Dublin, Centre for Economic Research, Discussion Paper 21. WALSH. J. A. (1979) Immigration to the Republic of Ireland 1946-71, Irish Geography. 12, 104-110. WALSH. J. A. () To Go or Not To Go: the Migration Intentions of Leaving Certificate Students. Carysfort College. Department of Geography. Discussion Paper 2.