Demographic Research Monographs A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany Editor-in-chief James W. Vaupel Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/5521
Nadja Milewski Fertility of Immigrants A Two-Generational Approach in Germany
Dr. Nadja Milewski University Rostock Institute of Sociology and Demography Ulmenstrße 69 18057 Rostock Germany nadja.milewski@uni-rostock.de Printed with the financial support of the Max Planck Society ISSN 1613-5520 ISBN 978-3-642-03704-7 e-isbn 978-3-642-03705-4 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-03705-4 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2009933119 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover illustration: The front cover photo top right hand corner includes a photograph by Harald Wenzel-Orf (www.wenzel-orf.de) and has been reproduced with his permission. Cover design: WMXDesign GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
To my mother, Gisela Milewski, and To my father, Manfred Milewski, a migrant himself
Foreword This volume, Fertility of Immigrants: A Two-Generational Approach in Germany by Dr. Nadja Milewski, is the sixth book of a series of Demographic Research Monographs published by Springer Verlag. Dr. Milewski is now working for the University of Rostock, but at the time she wrote the book, she was a research scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The book is a slightly-revised version of her doctoral dissertation ( Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants in West Germany: An Event History Approach ), which she completed at the Max Planck Institute and submitted to the University of Rostock. She was awarded highest honors, summa cum laude, for her dissertation. As Professor Jan Hoem wrote in his review of Dr. Milewski s dissertation, the research focuses on the patterns and levels of childbearing among immigrant women. Given Germany s varied immigration experience with refugees, asylum seekers, guest workers, and foreign-born persons of German ancestry, Dr. Milewski s topic is of particular interest, especially with regard to differences in the patterns and levels of childbearing among various kinds of immigrants to Germany vs. native-born Germans. Numerous empirical and theoretical studies of childbearing among immigrants to various countries have been published and Dr. Milewski carefully reviews them. While earlier studies have tended to be rather fragmentary, particularly for European populations, Dr. Milewski s research provides a comprehensive picture of the recent female fertility of post-war migrants and their descendants in West Germany, with an emphasis on migrants who came to Germany to work. The introduction to the book gives a brief overview of post-war migration to Germany. The second part reviews previous literature, specifies and describes the population to be studied, and formulates hypotheses to be tested. As described by Dr. Milewski, existing theory concentrates on five types of hypotheses concerning immigrant fertility. In a nutshell, these are: 1. The disruption hypothesis, which states that the preparations for and the aftermath of a move and the act of migrating itself are stressful and lead to reduced fertility after the move vii
viii Foreword 2. The socialization hypothesis, which claims that there are lasting impacts of childbearing behavior in the society which the (female) migrant leaves, imprints of which will influence her fertility after arrival in the country of destination 3. The adaptation hypothesis, which posits that the childbearing behavior of migrant groups will converge on that of the population at destination, 4. The selection hypothesis, which states that women who move have particular characteristics that make them different from both the population of origin and the population at destination, and that makes the fertility of migrants different from both populations; such characteristics may be observed or may lead to unobserved heterogeneity, 5. The hypothesis of an interrelation of events, which notes that migration often occurs in close proximity to other demographic events, particularly union formation/marriage, and posits that the confluence tends to be reflected in increased fertility after migration; this latter hypothesis is a direct competitor to the disruption hypothesis. To confront these hypotheses with the reality of her data, Dr. Milewski makes a distinction between non-immigrant women in Germany and first- and secondgeneration immigrant women. The first-generation immigrants are women who themselves have immigrated as adults; second-generation immigrants are their daughters, who either moved with their parents to West Germany as children or were born in West Germany to parents at least one of whom is a first-generation immigrant. Note that the second-generation immigrants born in Germany never actually immigrated to the country, so many of the hypotheses about the fertility of in-migrants are largely irrelevant for this group. Studying this population opens the possibility of analyzing fertility socialization in various minority groups: the group of immigrant descendants is perfect for the study of inter-generational adaptation behavior. The third part of the book is dedicated to the analyses. Dr. Milewski concentrates on women with a background from Turkey, Greece, Italy, Spain, and the states that formerly constituted Yugoslavia. She compares the childbearing patterns of these groups with each other and with those of non-immigrant women in West Germany, and she also compares the features of first- and second-generation immigrants in each group. Following a productive tradition in demography, she analyzes first, second, and third births separately, and she includes marriage formation and marital status as appropriate. She focuses on individual childbearing behavior after immigration using event-history analysis. This analytical approach enables her to study the impact of time since immigration and the importance of the duration of marriage. The data for this study were drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study. The sample includes women of the birth cohorts 1946 1983, living in West Germany. Use of the life-course approach enables Dr. Milewski to link demographic events in a life domain for an individual (childbearing behavior, say) to past events in the same domain, to changes in other domains (parallel careers), and to features of the lives of husbands and other family members (linked lives).
Foreword ix The book concludes with a discussion of the results. Like several previous investigators, Dr. Milewski firmly rejects the disruption hypothesis for firstgeneration immigrants and replaces it by a fertility-increasing arrival effect in line with the hypothesis of an interrelation of events. In addition, she finds evidence for adaptation, socialization, and compositional effects. The independence of Dr. Milewski s thinking shows up in her doubts about the US-based theories that have previously dominated the literature. She does not find them particularly appropriate to West German reality, mainly because of the different role of the state in the United States vs. Germany. Dr. Milewski s analysis demonstrates the advantages of a longitudinal research design over the conventional cross-sectional one, and sets a new standard for research on the fertility of international migrants and their descendants. Her study shows how thorough modeling of life-history data can advance our knowledge about family dynamics. The series of Demographic Research Monographs is under the editorial supervision of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. I am the Editor-in- Chief. I am advised by an Editorial Board that currently consists of Prof. Elisabetta Barbi (Messina University, Italy), Prof. Gabriele Doblhammer (Rostock University, Germany), Dr. Jutta Gampe (Max Planck Institute), Prof. Joshua Goldstein (Max Planck Institute), and Prof. Bernard Jeune (University of Southern Denmark). Additional members are temporarily appointed to the Editorial Board as needed to review the manuscripts submitted for possible publication. The current manuscript was reviewed and accepted by Prof. Jan M. Hoem (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Dr. Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool), and Prof. Michaela Kreyenfeld (University of Rostock). The Demographic Research Monographs series can be considered the successor to the series called Odense Monographs on Population Aging, edited by Bernard Jeune and James Vaupel. The volumes in this now-terminated series were first published as hardcover books by an academic publisher, Odense University Press, and subsequently made available online at www.demogr.mpg.de/books/odense. The nine Odense Monographs on Population Aging include two collections of research articles that focus on specific subjects on the frontier of demographic research, three volumes by senior researchers that present path-breaking findings, a review of research on a topic of emerging interest, a presentation of a new method for analysis of demographic data, an outstanding doctoral dissertation, and a unique collection of important demographic data on non-human species. The series of Demographic Research Monographs continues this mix, with books that are often under 200 pages in length, that have a clear focus, and that significantly advance demographic knowledge. Research related to population aging continues to be a focus on the series, but it is not the only one. We hope that eventually the series will embrace all of demography, broadly defined. As indicated by the first volume in the series, an important subject is historical demography. We will also publish research on fertility and family dynamics, as in the case of this volume. Mathematical demography is the core of the population sciences and we will strive to foster monographs, such as the one on How Long Do
x Foreword We Live?, that use mathematics and statistics to further develop the theories and methods of demography. Biodemography is a small but rapidly growing and particularly innovative branch of demography: we will seize opportunities to publish monographs, such as the one by Dr. Annette Baudisch, at the intersection of biology and demography; such monographs can pertain both to humans and other species, and can include demographic research with ties to such fields as epidemiology, genetics, evolutionary biology, life-history biology, experimental demography, and paleodemography. Each volume in the Demographic Research Monograph series will have a substantial link to the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. As well as being published as hardcover books by Springer-Verlag, the volumes of the Max Planck series of Demographic Research Monographs will subsequently be available at www.demogr.mpg.de/books/drm. The online version may include color graphs, supplemental analyses, databases, and other ancillary or enhanced material. Parallel publication online and in print is a significant innovation that will make the monograph series particularly useful to scholars and students around the world. James W. Vaupel Editor-in-Chief
Acknowledgments I am very much indebted to the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock. This doctoral project has been conducted within the Laboratory of Contemporary European Fertility and Family Dynamics, under the great supervision of Prof. Jan M. Hoem. I appreciate the constructive and friendly working environment in this Division, the assistance I received from the members of the Research Support as well as the comprehensive training at the International Max Planck Research School for Demography. In particular, I thank Dr. Hill Kulu for excellent mentoring. I am also grateful to my colleagues at the Institut national d études démographiques, Paris, who ensured that I could finish the work on my thesis although I had already been employed there. Moreover, I thank Miriam Hils-Cosgrove for valuable language editing of the book. Being a doctoral student has been a great and learning-intensive phase in my life, though certainly not one of the easiest. I am thankful to many persons who offered advice and encouragement in times of difficulties and shared the happy moments with me. Nadja Milewski xi
Contents List of Figures... xvii List of Tables... xix 1 Introduction... 1 1.1 Germany s Immigration History After 1945... 2 1.1.1 Expellees (Vertriebene) and In-Migrating Ethnic Germans (Aussiedler)... 3 1.1.2 Guest Workers (Gastarbeiter) in West Germany... 5 1.1.3 Foreign Workers (Vertragsarbeiter) in the Former GDR... 8 1.1.4 Refugees and Asylum Seekers... 9 1.1.5 Summary: Immigrants and Their Descendants in Germany... 10 1.2 Introduction to Fertility of Immigrants in Germany... 12 1.3 Research Questions and Structure of the Study... 15 2 Theory and Empirical Findings in Previous Investigations... 19 2.1 Migration and Fertility... 19 2.1.1 Disruption... 21 2.1.2 Interrelation of Events... 22 2.1.3 Adaptation... 23 2.1.4 Socialization... 27 2.1.5 Selection and Characteristics... 28 2.1.6 Legitimacy... 32 2.1.7 Minority Groups... 32 2.1.8 Socio-Demographic Characteristics and Economic Arguments... 33 2.1.9 Independence-Effect: Sub-Culture and Minority Status... 34 2.1.10 Synthesis: Theories... 38 2.2 Family-Formation Context in the Countries of Origin... 40 2.2.1 Italy and Spain... 41 2.2.2 Turkey... 43 xiii
xiv Contents 2.2.3 Former Yugoslavia... 46 2.2.4 Greece... 47 2.2.5 Intermediate Conclusion... 48 2.3 Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Guest Workers and Their Descendants in Germany... 49 2.3.1 Legal Status... 49 2.3.2 Education... 51 2.3.3 Occupation... 52 2.3.4 Religious Affiliation... 55 2.3.5 Social Interaction and Marriage Behavior... 56 2.4 Research Summary: Fertility of Guest Workers in Germany... 58 2.4.1 Period, Age, and Time Effects... 58 2.4.2 Individual Factors Influencing Fertility... 61 2.4.3 Contextual and Cultural Factors... 63 2.4.4 Reflections in the Light of Theory..... 65 2.5 Research Approach and Working Hypotheses... 69 2.5.1 The Life-Course Approach... 69 2.5.2 Hypotheses, Part 1 Entry into Motherhood... 72 2.5.3 Hypotheses, Part II Transitions to a Second and a Third Child... 75 3 Empirical Analysis... 79 3.1 Data, Method, and Explanatory Variables... 79 3.1.1 Data... 79 3.1.2 Method... 82 3.1.3 Explanatory Variables... 83 3.2 Introductory Description of the Sample... 92 3.2.1 Marriage... 92 3.2.2 Completed Family Size... 96 3.3 Results: Transition to a First Child... 97 3.3.1 Kaplan Meier Survival Estimates...... 98 3.3.2 Immigrant Generation and Baseline Intensity (Age of the Woman)... 102 3.3.3 Stay Duration of First-Generation Immigrants... 103 3.3.4 Marriage Duration... 104 3.3.5 Women s Characteristics... 106 3.3.6 Partner s Characteristics... 108 3.3.7 Immigration Background... 108 3.3.8 Further Covariates... 111 3.3.9 Intermediate Conclusion... 112 3.4 Results: Transition to a Second Child... 113 3.4.1 Kaplan Meier Survival Estimates...... 113 3.4.2 Immigrant Generation and Baseline Intensity (Age of the First Child)... 115 3.4.3 Stay Duration of First-Generation Immigrants... 117
Contents xv 3.4.4 Women s Characteristics... 118 3.4.5 Partner s Characteristics... 120 3.4.6 Immigration Background... 120 3.4.7 Further Covariates... 122 3.4.8 Intermediate Conclusion... 122 3.5 Results: Transition to a Third Child... 123 3.5.1 Kaplan Meier Survival Estimates...... 123 3.5.2 Immigrant Generation and Baseline Intensity (Age of the Second Child)... 125 3.5.3 Stay Duration of First-Generation Immigrants... 127 3.5.4 Women s Characteristics... 128 3.5.5 Partner s Educational Attainment...... 129 3.5.6 Immigration Background... 129 3.5.7 Further Covariates... 131 3.5.8 Intermediate Conclusion... 131 4 Discussion... 133 4.1 Conclusions for Hypotheses.... 133 4.1.1 Disruption... 133 4.1.2 Interrelation of Events... 134 4.1.3 Adaptation... 136 4.1.4 Selection and Characteristics... 138 4.1.5 Socialization... 139 4.2 Reflections and Perspectives... 141 4.2.1 Disruption and Union Dissolution...... 141 4.2.2 Adaptation and Selection of First-Generation Immigrants... 142 4.2.3 Second-Generation Immigrants... 143 4.2.4 Family Patterns... 143 5 Summary... 145 Appendix... 149 References... 161
List of Figures Fig. 1.1 Number of births in Germany, 1960 1997...... 14 Fig. 3.1 Transition to a first child, first-generation immigrants... 100 Fig. 3.2 Transition to a first child, second-generation immigrants and West Germans... 100 Fig. 3.3 Transition to a first child of first-generation immigrants by country of origin... 101 Fig. 3.4 Transition to a first child of second-generation immigrants by country of origin... 102 Fig. 3.5 Transition to a first child baseline intensity... 104 Fig. 3.6 Transition to a first child by time since arrival, relative risks Models 1.2 and 1.3... 105 Fig. 3.7 Transition to a first child by time since arrival, relative risks Models 1.2, 1.3, and 1.5... 110 Fig. 3.8 Transition to a second child, first- and second-generation Fig. 3.9 immigrants and West Germans... 114 Transition to a second child of first-generation immigrants by country of origin... 115 Fig. 3.10 Transition to a second child of second-generation immigrants by country of origin... 116 Fig. 3.11 Transition to a second child baseline intensity... 116 Fig. 3.12 Transition to a third child, first- and second-generation immigrants and West Germans... 124 Fig. 3.13 Transition to a third child of first-generation immigrants by country of origin... 125 Fig. 3.14 Transition to a third child of second-generation immigrants by country of origin... 126 Fig. 3.15 Transition to a third child baseline intensity... 127 xvii
List of Tables Table 1.1 Regional distribution of foreigners in Germany by federal state, 2005... 10 Table 1.2 Employment rates of German and foreign persons by sex, age, and marital status, 1997 %... 11 Table 2.1 Received or aspired school-leaving certificates of immgrants %... 52 Table 2.2 Educational degrees of persons employed in Germany with social security by sex and nationality, 1980 and 1996 %... 54 Table 2.3 Labor-market status by sex and nationality, Germany 1980 and 1996 %... 54 Table 2.4 Unemployment rates of foreigners in Germany by country of origin %... 55 Table 2.5 Total fertility rate in selected countries of origin and in Germany... 59 Table 2.6 Unadjusted age-specific fertility rates for guest-worker groups and West Germans, 1980 per 1,000... 60 Table 3.1 Overview of the sub-samples... 81 Table 3.2 Sample statistics: transition to a first child person-months (exposures) and first conceptions (occurrences)... 87 Table 3.3 Sample statistics: transition to a second child person-months (exposures) and first conceptions (occurrences)... 90 Table 3.4 Sample statistics: transition to a third child person-months (exposures) and first conceptions (occurrences)... 93 Table 3.5 Share of women unmarried at censoring, per country of origin %... 95 Table 3.6 Share of women unmarried at censoring, in respective birth cohort %... 95 Table 3.7 Mean age at first marriage, in respective birth cohort years... 95 xix
xx List of Tables Table 3.8 Mean age at first marriage, per country of origin years... 96 Table 3.9 Completed number of children %... 97 Table 3.10 Completed number of children at age 35, per country of origin %... 98 Table 3.11 Mean age at first, second, and third conception, per country of origin years... 99 Table 3.12 Mean age at first, second, and third conception, per birth cohort... 99 Table 3.13 Share of childlessness and median age at first-time motherhood by immigrant generation and country of origin... 101 Table 3.14 Factors influencing the transition to a first child: immigrant generation and stay duration relative risks for categorical variables and slope estimates for continuous variables... 103 Table 3.15 Factors influencing the transition to a first child: stay duration and marriage duration relative risks for categorical variables and slope estimates for continuous variables... 106 Table 3.16 Factors influencing the transition to a first child: women s characteristics relative risks for categorical variables and slope estimates for continuous variables... 107 Table 3.17 Factors influencing the transition to a first child: spouse s characteristics relative risks for categorical variables and slope estimates for continuous variables... 109 Table 3.18 Migrant-specific factors influencing the transition to a first child relative risks for categorical variables and slope estimates for continuous variables... 111 Table 3.19 Share of one-child mothers and median age at second conception... 114 Table 3.20 Factors influencing the transition to a second child: immigrant generation and timing of first birth and move relative risks... 117 Table 3.21 Factors influencing the transition to a second child: women s characteristics relative risks... 119 Table 3.22 Factors influencing the transition to a second child: characteristics of the women and the spouse relative risks... 121 Table 3.23 Factors influencing the transition to a second child: characteristics of immigration background relative risks... 122 Table 3.24 Share of two-child mothers and median age of second child at third conception... 124 Table 3.25 Factors influencing the transition to a third child: immigrant generation and timing of previous births and move relative risks..... 126
List of Tables xxi Table 3.26 Factors influencing the transition to a third child: women s characteristics relative risks... 128 Table 3.27 Factors influencing the transition to a third child: spouse s educational attainment relative risks... 130 Table 3.28 Factors influencing the transition to a third child: characteristics of immigration background relative risks... 130