Global trends: an ever more integrated world economy? Bernard Hoekman Banque Mondiale Peut-on domestiquer la mondialisation Lyon, 9 Novembre, 211 1
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Trend decoupling starting in early 9s 1 8 6 World Growth 1965-211 High Income High Income Trend Developing Countries Developing Countries Trend 4 2-2 -4 Higher GDP growth levels associated with expanding trade World trade has grown twice as fast as global GDP 2
South-South trade rising steadily 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 South share of total world imports South-South share of total world trade South import share from other South countries Source: Comtrade (via WITS) 3
Not just goods services trade growing 25% 2% Average annual growth of exports, 2-28 Services Other Commercial Other Business 15% 1% 5% Source: IMF % Latin America Africa MENA East Asia ECA South Asia 4
Drivers - The effective global labor supply has quadrupled since 198 (index, 198 = 1) 4 Global Labor supply Export-Weighted Labor Force by Region 1 1 35 3 Working-age population Total labor force Export-weighted labor force¹ Advanced economies East Asia 8 25 South Asia 6 2 15 Central and Eastern Europe and CIS Other developing countries 4 1 2 5 198 85 9 95 2 5 198 85 9 95 2 5 1 National labor forces scaled by export-to-gdp ratios. 5
Tariffs(%) 1 2 3 4 5 Drivers: Trade Liberalization 6 MFN Applied Tariff Rates versus GDP per Capita 2 4 6 8 GDP per capita(us dollars) Source: Mattoo and Neagu, 211 198s 2s 199s
Drivers: Telecommunication Costs International Switched Services Average Revenue per Minute $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $. 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Source: International Telecommunications Data, FCC, June 29 Index 1992 =1 12 Trends in leased line pricing (2 Mbits) 1 2 km 5 km 8 2 km 6 4 2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Source: OECD
8 Drivers: Technology (via investment flows, ICT, transport costs, global supply chains) Vertical specialization as a share of exports: 33% for Developing Countries in 25 Source: Canuto, Dutz, and Reis (21)
A rapidly growing global middle class Average per capita incomes in developing countries are likely to double and more people from developing countries will enter the global middle class Number of people (million) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Africa South Asia Middle East Latin America Europe & Central Asia East-Asia 25 23 9
28 crisis: trade collapse and recovery Merchandise export volume, by country income group (percentage change 3m/3m, sa) 15 1 5-5 High income Low income -1 Middle income -15 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Source: World Bank, DECPG data 1
Trade protectionism contained so far Share of total G2-imposed restrictive measures by country income group, Number 25 G2 High Income G2 Middle Income 2 15 1 5 Sep. 8 - Sep. 9 Oct. 9 - Sep. 1 Oct. 1 - Oct. 11 Source: Authors' calculations using WTO data from 29, 21, 211 11
Emerging economies very active Number of newly-initiated trade measures, 89 countries, Sep. 28 - July 211 Argentina; -69 Australia; -3 Brazil; -55 Brazil; 36 China; -5 China; 21 EU; -62 India; -119 India; 39 Indonesia; -53 Indonesia; 16 Liberalizing Restrictive Pakistan; -21 Pakistan; 11 Russia; -49 RTA Blr, Kzk, Rus; -24 RTA Blr, Kzk, Rus; 29 Russia; 33 Source: Authors' calculations using WTO data from 29, 21, 211 United States; -52 Turkey; -26 Ukraine; -2 United States; 5 Viet Nam; -21-12 -1-8 -6-4 -2 2 4 12
Concluding remarks Globalization a major force supporting higher growth rates observed in last 2 decades Has helped lead to large reductions in absolute poverty Recent events (crisis and policy responses) suggest strong forces supporting openness Flanking policies critical in managing adjustment pressures short-term volatility and structural Safety nets; education; factor markets Rise of the rest generates pressures that call for international cooperation: competition for resources; higher prices for commodities; supporting greater trade in services and tasks; policies to support greener growth 13
Education Matters 16 Average Years of Schooling by Age Cohort, 21 14 12 DEU AUS CAN USA JPN 1 KOR RUS BEL FIN 8 ESP ITA GBR AUT FRA 6 CHN MEX 4 IDN TUR BRA IND EGY 2 yr_sch 6-64 Source: Jensen 211
Education Matters 16 Average Years of Schooling by Age Cohort, 21 14 KOR JPN 12 1 8 IDN CHN EGY TUR BRA KOR MEX ESP ESP RUS RUS ITA ITA GBR GBR AUT AUT BEL BEL JPN FIN FIN AUS DEU FRA AUS DEU CAN CAN FRA USA USA 6 IND CHN MEX 4 IDN TUR BRA IND EGY 2 yr_sch 25-29 yr_sch 6-64 GDP per capita Source: Jensen 211