WS-04: WG Metropolitan Dynamics: Urban Change, Market and Governance

WS-04: WG Metropolitan Dynamics: Urban Change, Market and Governance RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY IN TIMES OF CRISIS. A NEW RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMPACT-SPRAWL AREAS? THE CASE OF BARCELONA METROPOLITAN REGION 1. Arlinda Garcia Coll UNIVERSITAT DE BARCELONA; Faculty of Geography and History. Human Geography Dep.; Montalegre, 6, 08001 Barcelona; e-mail: arlindagarcia@ub.edu Cristina López Villanueva UNIVERSITAT DE BARCELONA;Faculty of Economics and Business.Sociological Theory, Philosophy of the Law and Methodology of the Social Sciences; Diagonal, 690 08034 Barcelona; e-mail: clopez@ub.edu Isabel Pujadas Rúbies UNIVERSITAT DE BARCELONA; Faculty of Geography and History. Human Geography Dep.; Montalegre, 6, 08001 Barcelona; e-mail: ipujadas@ub.edu Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the present economic crisis on Barcelona Metropolitan Region s residential mobility patterns and determine whether centre periphery relationships have varied. After a period when intra-metropolitan mobility grew, that is to say, during the economic expansion cycle, in 2007, the economic crisis outbursts and turns the BMR into an excellent case study. The paper explains population growth by focusing on municipalities where urban sprawl dominated and compares them to the BMR as a whole and,as the metropolitan capital, the city of Barcelona.. Then, it goes on to examine residential mobility patterns, concentrating on intensity, composition and origin changes and comparing the 1997-2007 maximum growth period to the 2008-2011 economic crisis one. The sources used are the Population Register (1996-2011) and Residential Variations Statistics microdata. Key words: residential mobility; economic crisis; Barcelona Metropolitan Region; urban sprawl; compact cities. 1 Work has been developed as part of two research projects: New Spanish cities. Spatial impact of recent demographic dynamics on large Spanish urban areas during the present economic crisis. CSO2011-24680 and Residential Strategies and urban models in the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona (CSO 2010-22117-C02-02). They are both financed by the National Scientific Research and Technological Innovation Development Plan.

1-. Residential mobility during the present economic crisis. Specificities for a BMR analysis Research on migration and economic cycle relationships has undertaken an interesting discussion on whether economic conditions favour or slow down migration flow pace (Greenwood, 1993; Ródenas, 1994). This is the thematic framework which this paper will use. It will be focusing on residential mobility in highly urbanised post-transitional societies (Chesire, 1995), and more specifically on the analysis of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region (BMR). After an intra-metropolitan mobility growth period which lasted throughout the economic expansion cycle, in 2007, the economic crisis outbursts and turns the BMR into an excellent case study in which to analyse residential migration and economic condition relationships. The paper mainly aims to study how this new context is changing intrametropolitan migration patterns. It additionally also intends to determine if compact and disperse areas are presently shaping their relationships differently. Our initial hypothesis is that, due to the economic crisis, intra-metropolitan migration flow intensity will diminish because, just before to it begun, great part of moves were done to improve housing quality. It would therefore be logical that, during an economic crisis these kinds of movements would have less sense and would be reduced, subsequently affecting residential mobility as a whole. 2. Residential mobility and urban sprawl. Recent urban transformations can be studied from diverse perspectives and analytical scales such as, among others, metropolitan rings, demographic size of municipalities, municipality type or distance to the metropolitan central city. In the case of the BMR, one of the key aspects to understand the logics behind recent transformations would be urban sprawl expansion as it would distinguish between compact cities and a low density urban occupation model. Therefore, this paper starts by developing a typology classifying BMR municipalities according to their compactness or dispersion level. Aiming to characterize BMR s urban sprawl we have firstly classified municipalities according to whether their urban occupation dominant model is the compact high density or the disperse low density one. The theoretical considerations established by López de Lucio (1998) or Muñiz (2006) are used to identify the relevance of disperse urbanism from the four following variables, which are used for the conglomerate analysis differentiation. The percentage of residential land, which in 2001, was dedicated to single family houses and low density residential areas. Net population density measured according to the amount of municipality land, which in 2001, was

dedicated to residential land. The proportion of single family houses built between 1996 and 2001. And finally, new housing construction rates between 1996 and 2001. Municipalities have been grouped as a result of standardising variables by applying the Ward method on the squared Euclidean distance. Five different municipality groups, each with its own characteristics, emerged from the analysis. However, it should be also taken into account that municipalities under 1000 inhabitants have not been introduced into the typology, because the variables used in the classification gave such low values that they produced random and extreme indicators. As their demographic size is so small, this group has been given the name of rural. In sum, the BMR s 164 municipalities have been classified into 5 categories corresponding to the following characteristics shown in Table 1. Figure 1, on its side, displays their spatial distribution. Table 1: BMR Municipality classification according to their compactness or sprawl. Densidad neta % Superf. residencial % Viviendas unifam. Tasa construcción Municipios (hab./km2) en viviendas unifam. sobre total construidas viviendas ( ) Tipología n % 2001 2001 1996-2001 1996-2001 Compacidad muy alta 7 4,3 415,3 7,1 12,1 2,5 Compacidad alta 17 10,4 242,9 27,6 15,2 8,9 Mixtos 33 20,1 106,9 66,3 25,2 13,2 Dispersión media 31 18,9 47,7 84,4 49,0 15,2 Dispersión máxima 53 32,3 25,9 87,7 78,3 10,4 Rurales 23 14,0 31,7 87,9 79,1 14,7 RMB 164 100,0 130,0 6,15 Source: Based on data from INE: Censo de Población y Vivienda, 2001; INE: Nomenclator, 2001, Certificados final de obra of the Colegio de Aparejadores de Barcelona and Mapa de usos del suelo de la RMB of the Servicio de Estudios Territoriales del Área Metropolitana de Barcelona. Figure 1: Municipal typology according to whether sprawl or compact urbanism predominates 0 km 10 km 20 km 30 km Menores de 1.000 hab. Dispersión máxima Dispersión media Mixto Compacidad alta Compacidad muy alta Source: Based on table 1 results The most easily distinguishable are very highly compact municipalities. Their mean net density is extremely high - 415 inhabitants per km 2, nearly doubling that of the next category. Only 7%

of their land is used for single family housing. 7 municipalities would belong to this category, among them, Barcelona and those nearest to it. The second category includes highly compact municipalities. Their mean net density is high - 243 inhabitants per km 2. A higher amount of their land (28%), is used for single family housing. This category contains the rest of the municipalities belonging to formerly called Barcelona metropolitan area. In other words, the area where this city expanded during the socalled desarrollismo phase, which includes municipalities situated really near the capital. Then, there are mixed municipalities. This category is made up by 33 municipalities. Though their population density is high 106.9 inhabitants per km 2, 66% of their land is dedicated to single family housing and their 13.2% construction rate is also high. These municipalities are situated in the compact/disperse transition area and would include coastal-residential or interior residential municipalities. Mid dispersion ones come after that. This category groups 31 municipalities. They are situated throughout the whole metropolitan region, and therefore, they do not concentrate in any precise area. However they do tend to be situated near larger cities. Finally, there are the most disperse municipalities. This group is made up of BMR municipalities where urban sprawl attains its maximum levels. They mainly concentrate around mid-mountain wooded areas or coastal zones in which second homes and low density residential areas dominate. These new categories permit to reorganise municipal information in demographic statistics and observe behaviour differences according to how compact a municipality is. Two data sources have been used, the Padrón Municipal de Habitantes and Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales microdata. The former, enables demographic growth differences to be assessed. The latter contains annual information on intra-metropolitan migrants leaving and/or received by each municipality. Therefore, this type of moves and possible trend changes between 1996 and 2012 are extremely well portrayed. However, it should also be taken into account that some moves are not registered. 3.- BMR s sprawl and compact municipality population transformations Large city transformations, urban periphery development and metropolitan growth have been accompanied by population spatial redistribution and, more specifically, by centre-residential periphery migration flows. The analysed period, from 1996 to 2012, has been divided in three. The first, which covers from 1996 to 2000, is formed by the years just before to the strong foreign immigration upsurge started, and therefore, it is considered a transition period. During the second, comprising from

2001 to 2007, demographic, migration and economic growth attained their maximum levels. Finally, the third, from 2008 to 2012, comprehends from the year when the economic crisis outbursts to the last available data. Table 2 shows growth rate changes by municipal type. It should firstly be noted that, during the 1990s, the most dense and compact municipalities, the very highly compact ones, constantly lose population, and that their growth rates do not turn positive until the year2000. Hence, progressively less of the BMR s population lived in them. While in 1996 the 7 densest municipalities comprised 52.8% of the total metropolitan population, in 2012, they only comprehended 46.6% of it. Those years, the city of Barcelona itself went from being a 35.7% of the BMR s population to 32.1% of it. Table 2: 1996, 2001, 2012 Population distribution according to municipality type and 1996, 2001, 2008 and 2012.annual cumulative growth rate r%. % población Diferencia Tasa de crecimiento anual acumulativo (r %) Tipología 1996 2001 2012 1996-2012 1996-2000 2001-2007 2008-2012 1996-2012 Dispersión máxima 4,6 5,3 6,4 1,8 4,0 4,0 1,4 3,3 Dispersión media 7,4 8,2 9,4 2,0 3,3 3,4 1,0 2,7 Mixto 12,7 13,6 15,1 2,4 2,4 2,8 1,3 2,3 Compacidad alta 22,4 22,5 22,2-0,2 0,9 1,5 0,6 1,1 Compacidad muy alta 52,8 50,1 46,6-6,2-0,3 0,8 0,2 0,3 Rurales 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,1 2,6 4,2 1,8 3,1 Total 100 100 100 0,8 1,7 0,6 1,1 Source: Based on IDESCAT: 1996 Padrón Municipal de Habitantes data, and 1998 to 2012 Padrón continuo data. Mid-dispersion and the most disperse municipalities had both an explosive population growth, which, between 1998 and 2005, attained its maximum level. In the latter case, annual rates even reached above 4%. From that date, and anticipating the economic crisis, both groups started to reduce their growth rates. While in 1996 the 53 most disperse municipalities had 4.5% of the BMR s population, in 2012 they held 6.4% of it. When comparing the 2008 to 2012 period to the two previous ones, demographic changes and the impact of the current economic crisis become clear. All municipality types, but particularly the most disperse ones, reduce their population growth rates. Rate variability is considerably reduced. However, it should also be noted that, as before, disperse municipalities continue to grow more than compact ones. 4.-Residential mobility during the present economic crisis. Are there new patterns, new movers and new destinations? From the 1980s to 2005 and 2006, when figures attained their maximum level -more than 159,000 moves and a 33% growth rate-, residential mobility continuously increased (Figure 2). Residential mobility growth, which was the main characteristic of many Spanish metropolitan areas during the former decades, presently belongs to the past. Partly as a consequence of the

model s exhaustion and of the economic crisis, metropolitan demographic dynamics seem to be entering a new phase. This phenomenon has been so intense, that the BMR has become an excellent study area in which to analyse the new phase. Figure 2: 1996 to 2011 RMB intra-metropolitan migration tasa ( ) 34,0 32,0 30,0 28,0 26,0 24,0 22,0 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Total Tasa ( ) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Año 180.000 170.000 160.000 150.000 140.000 130.000 120.000 110.000 100.000 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 Source: Based on INE 1996 to 2011 Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales Microdata, 1996 Padrón Municipal de Habitantes and 1998 to 2012Padrón continuo data. Originally, we considered that, it would be logical that the economic and financial crises would, quite quickly, significantly reduce migration flows. This hypothesis was based on the fact that, until now, the main reason for moving was either housing or surroundings improvement. However, after considering recent data, this initial hypothesis, which predicted that the new economic circumstances would directly affect residential mobility, should be, if not rejected entirely, at least, to a certain extent, be modified. As 2007 data show, initially, intrametropolitan movements did seem to run parallel to economic recession, and events even got ahead of it, as migration flows had already started to diminish and subsequently seemed to announce that a high mobility cycle was coming to an end. However, the following year, data did not confirm this new trend. Between 2008 and 2011, figures stabilise in the region of the 148,000 or 141,000 annual moves, that is to say, in rates around 28 to 29%. In sum, a global first sight would indicate that migration diminution and the economic crisis would not be so intimately related. To obtain a greater in-depth sight into this apparent data inconsistency, both a deeper spatial analysis and better migration flow identification would be needed. To this end, three basic elements have been examined. Firstly, municipal net migration changes are analysed. Then, the role of foreign migration in metropolitan movements is studied and, finally, migration flows by their place of origin and destination examined.

4.1. Are the diverse spatial mobility patterns disappearing? Figure 3 maps the three period intra-metropolitan annual net migration rate distribution by municipality. Figure 3: 1996 to 2011 BMR municipality net migration rates. 1996-2000 2001-2007 0 km 10 km 20 km 30 km 0 km 10 km 20 km 30 km 2008-2011 0 km 10 km 20 km 30 km TASA ( ) Negativa Menos de 15 15-25 Más de 25 Source: Based on INE 1996 to 2011 Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales Microdata, 1996 Padrón Municipal de Habitantes, and 1998 to 2012 Padrón continuo data. During the first two periods, there is a strong annual net migration rate municipal hierarchy. However, in the last period, this clear spatial differentiation can no longer be observed. The highest rate group nearly disappears, as these municipalities are reduced from 63 to 5. Additionally, 67% of the municipalities which have a positive net migration rates do not even attain a 15% rate. A greater stability can be perceived among negative migratory balance municipalities. Though in the 2001 to 2007 period they were 18, and in the last period they increased to 27, they maintain a similar spatial distribution. Though the negative rate core is formed by the city of Barcelona and first ring municipalities, these last years, those furthest away from the BMR centre, have also been added to therm.

As it can be observed in figure 4, the same three periods have been applied to the dispersion/compactness municipality typology. As in the former population growth analysis, intra-metropolitan residential mobility shows that compactness and net migration rates are inversely related. Figure 4: Intra-metropolitan net migration rate municipal typology. tasa ( ) 39 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0-3 -6-9 -12-15 -18 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Año Compacidad muy alta Compacidad alta Mixto Dispersión media Dispersión máxima Rurales Source: Based on INE 1996 to 2011 Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales Microdata, 1996 Padrón Municipal de Habitantes, and 1998 to 2012 Padrón continuo data. Therefore, very highly compact municipalities show negative net migration rates throughout all the years analysed. Highly compact and mixed ones have really low positive rates, and it is in mid-dispersion and the most disperse municipalities where rates really intensify. The so-called rural municipalities are the only category breaking this norm, as up to 2005 their rate remained under that of the most disperse municipality group. In sum, since then, all the net migration rates and compactness are, as models predicted, perfectly inversely related (Fielding, 1982). However, it should also be noted that, through time, all category rates have globally diminished, and hence, values became increasingly similar. 4.2.-Foreigners and residential mobility. Are foreigners moving towards compact cities and Spanish people moving to sprawl areas? In the year 2000, the role of foreigners in intra-metropolitan migration substantially increases. Both absolute and relative numbers considerably grow. While between 1996 and 2000 foreigners did an annual average of 5,588 moves, between 2001 and 2007 annual figures shoot to 53,501 movements. Therefore, though in the first period only 4.8% of the moves were done by foreigners, in the second, percentages rocket to 37.2%. 2008 is the year when rates attain their maximum levels, as 41.3% of the residential moves were carried out by foreigners. In other words, as they were only a 14.5% of the metropolitan population, their relevance for residential migration flows was much higher than what it was for the population in general.

Figure 5: Intra-metropolitan migration rates by nationality. Percentage of foreigners within intrametropolitan migration. 1996 to 2011 90 45 Tasa de migración neta ( ) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 % Participación extranjeros sobre total migrantes residenciales 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Tasa migración neta extranjeros Tasa migración neta RMB Tasa migración neta españoles % Extranjeros sobre total de migrantes residenciales Source: Based on INE 1996 to 2011 Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales Microdata, 1996 Padrón Municipal de Habitantes, and 1998 to 2012 Padrón continuo data. Foreigners would not only be more mobile than nationals when families are formed, but throughout all economically active age groups. The recent arrival of a substantial part of them and the provisional nature, from the residential, labour and family consolidation points of view, of the first settlement stages would partly explain this higher extended mobility (Pujadas and Bayona, 2011). Despite figures diminish between 2008 and 2011 with respect those of the previous, 2001 to 2007, period, due to the economic crisis, it should be noted that, those of foreigners undergo a much less radical fall. What role do foreigners play in intra-metropolitan mobility? The relevance of foreigners in residential mobility and city compactness would be directly related (figure 6). Between 2005 and 2010, above half of the very highly compact city moves were made by foreigners. Therefore, in this type of city, they obviously have a highly relevant role. At the other end of the scale, they did only a 15% of the most disperse municipality moves between the latter mentioned dates. However, it is the only type of municipality in which, in the last period, foreigner immigration continues having a similar percentage as before. In the rest of categories percentages start to reduce from the year 2008.

Figure 6: Propotion of foreigners within intra-metropolitan migration between 1996 and 2011 by municipality s compactness/sprawl level % sobre total inmigración 60,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Año Rurales Compacidad muy alta Compacidad alta Mixto Dispersión media Dispersión máxima Source: Based on INE 1996 to 2011 Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales Microdata, 1996 Padrón Municipal de Habitantes, and 1998 to 2012 Padrón continuo data. 4.3.-Are compact/sprawl relationships changing? Migration flow direction and the crisis. Migration flows between compact, mixed and disperse cities during the three periods will be analysed through origin-destination matrices (Table 3). Ina general fist view of the three periods it can be observed that while migratory flows towards compact cities increase, those towards mid-dispersion and most disperse municipalities diminish. While during the first period 23.9% of residential changes between municipalities were to highly compact cities, in the most recent one, figures grew to 38.7%. However, mobility to middispersion ones has been reduced from attracting 15.3% of the moves to 11.7% of them. As for maximum dispersion ones, attraction capacity percentages fell from, 14 to 10%. Therefore, despite the two most disperse groups continue having the highest immigration and population growth rates, they would be becoming increasingly less attractive. Mixed municipalities would also follow this last trend, as they reduced their attractiveness from 24.5% to 18.8%. The main explanation to this trend would undoubtedly be that foreign immigration, as it was formerly explained, also prefer to move into compact cities. Obviously, however, the particularly harsh effects of the present deep economic and financial crisis on low density residential areas cannot either be left aside.

Table 3: Transformations of migratory flow origin and destination percentages. Destino migración intrametropolitana Compacidad muy Compacidad Dispersión Dispersión Período Rural alta alta Mixto media máxima Total 1996-2000 0,67 23,88 21,72 24,48 15,28 13,97 100,00 2001-2007 0,70 31,03 21,17 20,77 13,82 12,51 100,00 2008-2011 0,67 38,69 20,17 18,77 11,77 9,93 100,00 Origen migración intrametropolitana Compacidad muy Compacidad Dispersión Dispersión Período Rural alta alta Mixto media máxima Total 1996-2000 0,45 49,16 19,85 15,22 8,11 7,21 100,00 2001-2007 0,43 47,53 19,73 15,96 9,14 7,22 100,00 2008-2011 0,51 45,40 19,79 16,40 10,12 7,77 100,00 Source: Based on INE 1996 to 2011 Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales Microdata. On the other hand, table 3 also offers information on the flows origin. Migration from the very highly compact municipalities has also significantly diminished from 49.1% in the first to 45.4% in the last period. In comparison to the rest of municipality clusters, this would be the most significant change. In the other groups, exits either slightly grow, as is the case of middispersion and mixed municipalities, or, as in the highly compact and the most disperse cases, do not vary too much throughout the whole period analysed. Figure 7 slows migratory interactions in greater depth.-four possible origin and destination situations have been taken into consideration, i.e., rural, compact (adding both groups up), mixed and disperse (also adding both groups up). The annual average migratory flows for the two most significant periods, 2001 to 2007 and 2008 to 2011 have been compared. Figure 7: 2001 to 2007 and 2008 to 2011 Flow origin and destination variation. Relative figures. Total De rural a compacto Flujo con destino municipio rural Flujo con destino municipio disperso 0,8 23,8 De rural a disperso Flujo con destino municipio compacto 23,8 De rural a mixto Flujo con destino municipio mixto 20,7 De disperso a compacto De mixto a compacto De compacto a compacto 13,2 14,3 15,3 De disperso a mixto De disperso a rural 9,8 11,2 De disperso a disperso De mixto a rural De mixto a mixto 1,3 1,0 2,3 De rural a rural -8,1 De mixto a dispersos -12,2 De compacto a rural De compacto a mixto -15,5-16,0 De compacto a disperso -24,9-30,0-25,0-20,0-15,0-10,0-5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 % variación flujos anuales 2001-2007 y 2008-2011 Source: Based on INE 1996 to 2011 Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales Microdata. Compact and mixed municipalities have been the residential options which have most grown. Changes between sprawl and rural, and vice versa, only occasionally increase. Inversely, flows

towards disperse municipalities and the so-called rural areas are those which have fallen most, followed by mixed ones. Conclusion From the 1990s to the year 2007, the BMR had high intra-metropolitan residential mobility and increasing high foreigner percentages -their participation in internal moves meant that nearly half of the region s residential moves were carried out by the latter. Migration intensity and municipality compactness, on their side, were inversely related. Sprawl municipalities and compact ones clearly played different roles. While the first had really high population growth and net migration rates, in the latter, both figures were much lower, and the densest municipalities, even had negative rates. Taking the former trend as a reference point, this paper addresses the issue of effect of economic crisis on BMR intra-metropolitan mobility. The initial idea was that the magnitude of economic changes since 2008 should have influenced migratory trends, modifying their formerly mentioned features. However, as BMR residential mobility has only very slightly been reduced, a wrongful conclusion, that is to say, that trends were apparently not being, or at least not deistically changed by economic circumstances, could be extracted from analysing the general most recent (2008-2001) data,. A deeper analysis, leaving aggregate figures aside, has allowed observing the economic crisis real impact. As it has been formerly shown, the crisis has not had the same impact on all groups nor everywhere. Firstly, it should be mentioned that foreigner mobility has been much more affected than that of Spanish people. As other studies stress, during economic crisis, the former become particularly vulnerable. Secondly, it should be emphasised that disperse municipalities are, by far, those which have most acutely lost migratory attractiveness, as they are increasingly less chosen as a residential destination. At the other end there are most dense municipalities, which follow the inverse trajectory. Some of this attractiveness would be lost due to reduced mortgage availability, higher life cost in disperse municipalities and compact city s improved residential availability as its housing supply has improved and diversified, and both rents and housing purchase prices have fallen. Despite the lack of more precise data which would numerically allow confirming these latter trends further, the economic crisis would seemingly have changed - in the same way as it disrupted income availability many family residential strategies. From the previous analysis it can be inferred that, migrations to urban disperse areas which only searched to improve residential environment and/or the dwelling itself, have diminished. The drastic diminution of

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