Title of Presentation Global Threat Brief President / CEO Global Guardian
Introduction / Background Dale Buckner, President and CEO of Global Guardian 24-year US Army Veteran, Colonel (Retired) Special Operations, Intelligence, Counter-Terrorism experience Numerous combat and classified deployments including Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Colombia, Cuba, El Salvador, Chile, Panama and Haiti No Political Lens No Religious Lens Executor of U.S. Policy
The World Has Changed Rise of Emerging Markets Globalization / Corporate Travel Increased Global Instability Access to the Internet Corporate Transformation Required People Infrastructure Communications
Global Hotspots Clash of cultures, lack of economic growth, poor health care, limited clean water, disease, lack of hope Cause and Effect Disenfranchised Rise of Middle Class Access to Internet Mobility Political Divides Decentralization Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty the one consistency in the new world order
United States Since 9/11 our entire world has changed and you don t feel it, see it or think about it but nothing is as it was or will be The key roles of our government Justice Defense General Welfare Liberty Essential Services Security The world we live in today Internet Email Phones - Text - Voice Cameras Finance Drones Our nations ability to integrate and unify along religious, political, racial and gender lines while balancing security is going to be challenged as we struggle with rapidly changing demographics the old paradigms no longer apply
United States We have been protected by big data and geographic isolation for the last 15 years but the dark web & encryption are going to change everything Surveillance & Big Data Internet Email Phones Cameras Finance Drones
Global Economic Risk Decentralization, conflict and the falling price of oil have set the conditions for stagnate growth, intense competition, increased espionage and mass cyber theft NEGATIVE GROWTH: Libya (-8.3%) Russia (-2.3%) Venezuela (-6.1%) Brazil (-2.1%) POSITIVE GROWTH: Emerging markets Europe, Japan, US GLOBAL GROWTH: 3.2% Strengthening dynamics in 2017 in emerging-market nations, healthier activity in the Eurozone and Japan, as well as the United States. All are now at risk of being undermined by Economic Warfare and Cyber Theft for the foreseeable future
Cyber Employees are the number one weakness - cell phones, tablets and lab tops - securing the enterprise with software is only half the equation LOSSES: Billions of dollars in corporate IP and trade secrets will continue to be stolen in 2016 and beyond IC3: Internet Crime Complaint Center, FBI NON-STATE ACTORS: Non-state actors express the desire to conduct malicious cyber attacks, but lack the capability to conduct high-level cyber operations TERRORISM: Groups effectively use the internet for theft, communication, propaganda, fundraising and recruitment What are you doing right now to secure your financials, IP, PII, client data, and future M&A corporate America is failing massively stop talking and take action
Cyber-Enabled Fraud Schemes Schemes Corporate Espionage Gains Rapid Cash Funding (Criminal) Anti-Trust Crimes Control of Foreign Markets Market Manipulation Destabilization of Markets Fraud Money Laundering Political Manipulation Illicit Funds Control of R&D Sanction Nation Violations Make Up for Lack of Innovation Supply Chain Sabotage Influence M&A Economic Warfare serves three strategic objectives: economic, political, and military control
Global Terrorism Every action has a reaction with negative 2 nd and 3 rd and 4 th order effects that will affect us for the next 30 years (generational) The number of people who have died from terrorist activity has increased ninefold since 2000 Terrorism related deaths rose from 18,111 in 2013 to 32,685 in 2014 (largest ever increase) Ten of the 11 countries that had more than 500 deaths from terrorism in 2014 had the highest levels of refugees Victory, defeat, destroy no such thing when combatting an ideology (not WWII) containment, disruption, dispersion are success in the new world order
Western Terrorism Transition from regional organizations to the self-radicalized individual a global scale via the internet U.S. & Europe in the cross-hairs on 70% of all deaths from terrorism in the West since 2006 were by lone wolf terrorists. 2015 was most lethal year for terrorist violence in Europe in nearly a decade Outside the ten countries with the highest number of deaths from terrorism, deaths increased by 139 per cent from 2013 to 2014. Source: Maplecroft Terrorism and Security Dashboard Social media, cyber and the dark web the 3 most powerful elements of future terrorism
Russia 25 years ago the USSR controlled 15 additional countries it s currently struggling to survive as a petrol-state follow the money, not the propaganda Failure - Decline $450 average monthly wage -40% decline in GDP (13-2015) -2% GDP decline projected 16 14.2% poverty rate projected 15% inflation rate (U.S. = 1-2%) -$36 billion deficit shortfall 62% military operational rate -30 million people (by 2050) Putin did not invade the Ukraine, Syria or continue to threaten the West to regain power and influence its to control his disenfranchised population and failing economy
India Socio-economic imbalances, urban anonymity, disproportionate gender ratio (884 female: 1,000 males), overpopulation, unemployment, poverty, corruption, and inadequate policing Alarming Increases 32% increase in kidnapping 20% crimes against women 27% rapes against women 11,209 FIR s Total 2014 9 convictions of 11,209 FIR s 7,124 rapes in 8 months (2015) 1 conviction of 7,124 to date 40,000 young girls kidnapped By every measure, India is headed toward total social failure and there is no indication of any political will to change more importantly, the West is looking the other way
Middle East and North Africa Sectarian violence, civil war, terrorism, oil conflicts, & the fight for the control of the region Lack of religious & cultural understanding = strategic errors Sunni, Shia, Kurd its everything & we have not learned the lesson The Middle-East is completely uncertain and no-one can win Tribes Matter Saudi Arabia vs. Iran U.S. - Russia - Turkey Sunni Kurd Shia Direct Translation Sunni Sunni Shia Sunni Sunni Sunni Ibadi Sunni Sunni Shia
Refugee Crisis Human Suffering The Iraq and Syria wars have displaced 20 million people, which represents the largest displacement of people since WWII friction, friction, friction Germany accepted approximately 1,200,000 refugees in 2015 (4x more than 2014) United States plans on accepting 85,000 refugees in 2016 (10,000 Syrians) in doubt now 4,000,000+ living in refugee camps in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan alone
Threats to the West The flood of refugees & migrants from the Middle-East and Africa are changing the West forever Over 9,000,000 refugees and migrants have flooded to Europe since 2011 Germany, Hungry, Sweden, Italy and France have lead Europe but with reluctance and friction The European Union will be unrecognizable in a decade Nationalism Immigration Terrorism Political Divides Integration Are you preparing your European business operations personnel, infrastructure?
Central America & Mexico Supply and demand who s the enemy? The U.S. had a substantial role in creating the current situation and a wall will not fix it In the 2000s, 90% of cocaine consumed in the U.S. was imported from Mexico Colombia Venezuela's Failure Effect Guatemala El Salvador Nearly 450,000 people are employed by drug cartels in Mexico - $65 billion industry (MX alone), $435 billion globally No Wall Mexican government reports 165,000 homicides from 2007-2014 with 55% attributed to drug war 2016 is on pace for a 15% higher homicide rate than 2015 Highest risk to the region recognition of the 7 primary drug cartels as political parties = narco state
Kidnapping Kidnapping has accelerated over the past decade due to growing socioeconomic divide, internet access and the spread of radical groups Mexico and India lead the world for kidnap-and-ransom events The number of foreigners kidnapped in Mexico was 9 times higher in 2015 than 2014 The U.S. Department of State estimated that at least 200 U.S. citizens were kidnapped in Mexico alone in 2015 Mexico Guatemala Honduras Colombia Venezuela Nigeria Somalia Iraq - Syria Yemen Afghanistan - Pakistan Philippines India Brazil The top Kidnap & Ransom countries in the world are heavily invested by U.S. outsourcing
Crystal Ball What does it all mean over the next decade so what? U.S. contraction - deficit Mexico - Narco state Venezuela - failed state Africa, MX - manufacturing growth E.U. breaks apart / Germany shrinks Turkey allies w/ the U.S. Russia collapses Poland rises Iran nuclear deal holds ME cold war China stagnates Japan rises India s class system fractures Secure your personnel, infrastructure, communications and understand that global challenges will not be solved by the old playbook you have to acknowledge, accept and adjust to the new world order
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