Accra Conakry Dar es Salaam Harare Johannesburg Lagos London Nairobi Perth Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Nigeria 2015 Presidential Election Results April 2015
02 Winds of Change in Nigeria Nigeria s long awaited Presidential elections finally took place over the weekend. Some 29 million people voted across 120,000 polling units in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to decide who should lead the country for the next four years. In a closely contested race between the ruling People s Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigerians decided for the latter and in the process made history. APC s Muhammadu Buhari received 54% of the popular vote to emerge the winner; for the first time in 15 years, the ruling party lost to the opposition and an incumbent President failed to clinch a second term. The Results Although 14 candidates contested, the choice was always between incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan from the oil rich Christian South and former Military leader Muhammadu Buhari from the Muslim North, in his fourth attempt to clinch the Presidency since the country s return to civilian rule in 1999. In a closely contested race which saw voting spill over into a second day, Nigerians made history by deciding for the opposition. APC s Muhammadu Buhari won in 21 states and gathered a total of 15,424,921 votes to PDP s 12,853,162. The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had promised he would announce results within 48 hours of polls closing. However within hours of voting being concluded in some centres, supporters of the two major parties as well as non-partisan observers took to social media to publicise unofficial results from the various polling units leading to conflicting accounts and a lot of misinformation. INEC started announcing results Monday afternoon, somewhat earlier than expected considering that voting ended just the day before. However, the decision taken to announce results as they came in from the States was not just an accurate measure of the people s desire to get the official results, it was also a move designed to curb possible incidences of interference or manipulation at the level of the collation of the results in the states Party APC Presidential Candidate Muhammadu Buhari Goodluck Jonathan Received > 25% of the vote States Won 25 21 25 15, FCT Total No of Votes 15,424,921 (54%) 12,853,162 (45%)
03 Nigeria 2015 Presidential Election Results The Process Oyo Ogun Kebbi Lagos Sokoto Kwara Osun Zamfara Niger Ekiti Ondo Edo Delta Bayelsa Katsina Kaduna Kano Abuja F.C.T. Nassarawa Kogi Rivers Akwa Ibom Benue Enugu Anambra Ebonyi Cross Imo Abia River 68 million registered voters 43% voter turn out (29 million) Jigawa Bauchi Plateau Yobe Gombe Taraba Borno Adamawa Peoples Democratic Party - PDP All Progressives Congress - APC A six-week delay owing to security concerns actually gave the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) much needed additional time to prepare for the elections. As at March 22, 82% of the 68 million registered voters, that is 56 million people, had collected their Permanent Voters Card (PVC) required for voting on election day, up from 66% as at February 14 when the elections were originally scheduled. The Commission also succeeded in deploying electronic card readers for the first time ever in Nigerian elections for the biometric accreditation of registered voters. Despite these efforts, voter turnout on average was about 44% (peaking at 56% in the South-South) which indicates that just over half of the PVCs collected were actually used. Turnout was even lower than in 2011, which had an impact on the margins of both parties, but particularly affected the PDP which was counting on votes from key regions in the South.As can be expected with an election of this scale, there were several logistical and security challenges which delayed and in some cases led to the outright cancellation of elections in some polling units, but for the INEC and most independent observers these shortfalls were not of sufficient scale to undermine the credibility of the overall process. Some of the problems associated with the mishandling or malfunctioning of card readers were to be expected as the machines had only been tested in selected state trial runs two weeks before the elections. Of greater concern were incidences of over-voting and underage voting as well as interference with the electoral process by political thugs which led to outright cancellation of the elections in affected polling units. Nonetheless, local and international observers have described the just concluded elections as one of the most reliable and peaceful in Nigeria considering the stakes and the pervading security situation in the lead-up to the polls. The main contenders were not so accepting. During the two days it took INEC to announce results, both parties raced each other to demand the cancellation of elections in states where alleged incidences of malpractice or violence had marred their chances. The ruling party in particular called for the cancellation of elections in a several states across the North (Buhari s stronghold) citing a range of offences from accreditation of underage voters to deliberate collusion between the INEC and the APC to falsify results. The APC for its part alleged that elections failed to take place in Rivers, one of the states it hoped to win from the PDP, and the tenuous situation (violent protests had led to the imposition of a curfew on Monday night) led the INEC to set up a commission of inquiry to investigate the party s complaints, though it went ahead to announce the election results from the state.
04 Regional votes Region Voter turn-out APC PDP North East (NE) 3.68m 42% 78% 22% North West (NW) 8.57m 50% 83% 16% North Central (NC) 3.85m 41% 59% 40% South South (SS) 5.17m 56% 8% 91% South East (SE) 2.72m 37% 7% 91% South West (SW) 4.36m 34% 56% 42% FCT 306k 36% 48% 51% TOTAL 29 million 44% 54% 45% The Outcome Worries that an APC win will be fiercely contested by the PDP have been doused by President Jonathan s move to congratulate his opponent on his apparent win even before the final consolidated results were announced by INEC. The resurgence of militant activity in the Niger Delta following Buhari s win is a possible medium term threat, but in the short term (next few days) it is expected that PDP supporters will take a cue from their leader and accept the election result in good faith. Certainly it has been accepted by independent observers who have adjudged the process relatively free and fair and a reflection of the will of the electorate. 4.36m APC 56% PDP 42% 2.72m APC 7% PDP 91% 8.57m APC 83% PDP 16% 3.85m APC 59% PDP 40% Abuja 3.68m APC 78% PDP 22% 5.17m APC 8% PDP 91% 306k APC 48% PDP 51% Indeed an upshot of this election is that it ushers in an era of renewed confidence of the Nigerian voter in his ability to hold leadership to account through the electoral process. The APC campaigned aggressively on a platform of change, promising to tackle corruption, insecurity and unemployment, and President-elect Buhari will be expected to make good on these pledges very quickly. No easy feat at the best of times, it will be particularly difficult in the current economic climate of low oil prices and a depreciating currency. Buhari himself realises all of this; as support swelled towards the end of campaigns, he hinted that managing expectations if he did win could be the most tricky test of all. Voter Turnout APC PDP North west north east North central South west South south South east
For subscriptions or more information, contact us directly: Abdulhameed Abubakar (Lagos) aabubakar@africapractice.com/ +234 (0) 818 591 6957 Dawn Dimowo (Abuja) ddimowo@africapractice.com/ +234 (0) 818 591 7040 Thomas Wilson (London) twilson@africapractice.com/ +44 (0)20 7087 3780 africapractice - www.africapractice.com