New message platform for 2018 s key battlegrounds Findings from Wave 1 of Battleground web-panel & phone survey. May 2018

New message platform for 2018 s key battlegrounds Findings from Wave 1 of Battleground web-panel & phone survey May 2018

Innovative new research program BATTLEGROUND PHONE POLL ON-GOING RAE+ BATTLEGROUND PANEL 3 phone polls in 2018: April 5-12 1,000 registered voters Voter file matched 65% reached on cell phones Taking political & cultural measures nationally & among the RAE+ To compare & weight RAE+ panel to offset bias of online sample 3 web-surveys in 2018: April 4-16 among 3,137 Among 3,137 unmarried women, millennials, minorities (RAE) + white working class women Voter file matched With touch-ins between waves Tracking changing attitudes Vote preference &engagement Conduct message tests to discover persuasion & turnout targets Unless otherwise stated, the results shown are among the RAE (unmarried women, minorities and millennials) plus white working class women. 1

(Republican PVI advantage) (PVI even) (Democratic PVI advantage) DIVERSE BATTLEGROUND STATES Arizona (+5), Colorado (+1), Florida (+2), Georgia (+5), Nevada (+1), New Mexico (+3) Criteria: less than 70% white only population Combined Diverse State demographics: 64% RAE (33% minority, 31% unmarried women, 30% millennial) 23% white working class women. RUST BELT + BATTLEGROUND STATES Michigan (+1), Minnesota (+1), Ohio (+3), Pennsylvania (-), Tennessee (+14), Wisconsin (-) Criteria: more than 70% white only population Combined Rust Belt+ state demographics: 47% RAE (13% minority, 20% unmarried women, 28% millennial) 31% white working class women. 2

*retiring/term-limited *named candidate of incumbent party *named challenger GOVERNOR SEATS: Democratic Incumbent: Colorado**, Minnesota**, Pennsylvania Republican Incumbent: Arizona, Florida*, Georgia**, Michigan***, Nevada**, New Mexico***, Ohio**, Tennessee*, Wisconsin SENATE SEATS: Democratic incumbent: Florida*, Michigan, Minnesota*, New Mexico*, Ohio*, Pennsylvania*, Wisconsin Republican incumbent: Arizona**, Nevada*, Tennessee*** HOUSE SEATS: 57% Republican-held, 43% Democrat-held DCCC Battleground Seats: AZ-1, AZ-2, CO-6, FL-6, FL-7, FL-18, FL-26, MI-8, MI-11, MN-1, MN-2, MN-3, MN-7, MN-8, NM-2, NV-3, PA-6, PA-8 3

Recommendations: MESSAGE: STOP SHORT-TERM FOR RICH THREATENING OUR FUTURE Stop politicians and their huge tax-giveaway to the big corporations and the richest 1% which will blow-up and endanger our future. We need to invest in education and infrastructure, not cut them. We need to protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, not threaten your hard-earned retirement. ATTACK : ENOUGH POLITICAL GAMES ON HEALTH CARE COSTS Donald Trump and Republicans promised [STATE] better, cheaper health care. Instead they supported plans to massively cut Medicaid, raise prices on older workers, and eliminate protection for pre-existing conditions. Drug and insurance companies even got a new tax cut even though they are still raising prices on us here in my state. Enough politics and broken promises on health care. LITMUS TEST: X Supported cuts to Medicare & Social Security to address the rising federal budget deficit. X Supported the efforts to cut Medicaid, raise premiums & rates for those with preexisting conditions. X Opposed universal background checks and an assault weapon ban. EMOTIONAL RESPONSE FRAMES: I m shocked I can t believe it 4

2018 election all about interest and intensity How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. And how much do the elections this November for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning they don't matter at all and 10 meaning they matter tremendously. %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION & ELECTION MATTERS 43 52 40 46 24 32 18 31 25 32 39 50 42 54 36 48 InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters InterestMatters African American Hispanic Millennials Millennial Millennial Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 5

Messaging produces major shifts in interest in voting in November How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION +6 +3 +12 +8 +7 +6 +5 +8 37 43 43 46 40 52 24 32 25 32 39 45 42 47 36 44 Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Rising American Electorate African American Hispanic Millennials Millennials Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 6

Democrats have daunting lead on enthusiasm How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. And how much do the elections this November for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning they don't matter at all and 10 meaning they matter tremendously. SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION & ELECTION MATTERS +6 +7 +6 37 43 44 51 31 37 Interest initial Interest re-ask Interest initial Interest re-ask Interest Initial Interest Re-ask Rising American Electorate Democrats Republicans RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying Democrats, independents, and Republicans by RAE only. 7

Democrats intensely opposed to Trump Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is doing his job as President? TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE Strongly approve Strongly disapprove +24 +78 +72 86 38 22 49 62 Rising American Electorate 11 77 89 Democrats 57 14 Republicans RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying Democrats, and Republicans among RAE only. 8

THE STATE OF THE BATTLEGROUND 9

Democrats running way ahead of Trump in the battlegrounds Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district/governor in your state/senate in your state in November 2018, will you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? BALLOTS VS. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN BATTLEGROUND ALL REGISTERED VOTERS & 2016 VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Democratic Candidate in 2018/Clinton in 2016 Republican Candidate in 2018/Trump in 2016 +11 +4 +3 +8 +2 +3 +1 49 50 49 46 42 45 43 46 45 44 2016 Presidential Vote 2018 Senate Ballot 2018 Congressional Ballot Senate Battleground States 2016 Presidential Vote 2018 Governor Ballot Governor Battleground States All registered voters in battleground phone survey. Compared to the 2016 presidential vote across the 12 governor race and 10 Senate race states. 10

Strong lead in Senate & House ballot, heated Governor races Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in your district/governor in your state/senate in your state in November 2018, will you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? CONGRESSIONAL, GOVERNOR, SENATE BALLOTS ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Democratic Candidate RAE PANEL RESPONDENTS IN BATTLEGROUND Republican Candidate +8 +2 +1 +19 +22 +20 50 45 45 42 43 44 56 57 55 37 35 35 Senate Congress Governor Senate Congress Governor All registered voters in battleground phone survey / RAE+ battleground web-survey among RAE only. 11

Senate candidate are candidates for change Thinking about the election for Senate in your state in November 2018, will you vote for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? / Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? +10 SENATE VOTE & COUNTRY DIRECTION ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Democratic candidate/wrong track +9 Republican candidate/right track +5 +20 52 50 46 42 41 41 56 36 Senate Vote Country Direction Senate Vote Country Direction Democratic Held Senate Seat Republican Held Senate Seat All registered voters in battleground phone survey. 12

Stunning opportunities in RAE base Thinking about the election for Senate in your state in November, will you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate)? SENATE BATTLEGROUND VOTE Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate +28 +87 +83 +18 +3 +31 +15 +14 +8 +23 +31 +6 +14 +4 +3 90 91 61 33 53 35 46 43 58 27 50 35 37 51 40 48 57 34 62 31 50 44 53 39 47 43 44 47 3 8 Total Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Hispanic African American Millennial Millennial Millennial Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 13

Dems leading in DCCC battleground and Diverse states Thinking about the election for Congress in your district in November 2018, will you vote for -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all? CONGRESSIONAL VOTE ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Strong Dem Weak Dem Strong Rep Weak Rep +24 +15 +10 55 37 49 45 32 40 25 31 Democratic Held House Seats 46 52 Republican Held House Seats 30 39 DCCC Battleground All registered voters in battleground phone survey. 14

Unmarried women 2-to-1 & winning white unmarried women Thinking about the election for Congress in your district in November 2018, will you vote for -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all? +25 +89 90 91 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE MARGIN Strong Dem Weak Dem Strong Rep Weak Rep +82 +22 +5 +7 +6 +32 +28 +8 +11 +17 +12 60 43 20 35 56 63 60 48 51 51 42 41 38 39 68 70 36 29 43 42 26 24 33 35 25 25 7 1 16 27 25 30 19 20 26 25 9 35 31 34 31 32 43 49 47 43 40 55 51 Total Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Hispanic African American Millennial Millennial Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 15

Democratic vote not consolidated in Governor races Thinking about the election for Governor in your state in November, will you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate)? How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all? GOVERNOR VOTE MARGIN ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Strong Dem Weak Dem Strong Rep Weak Rep +9 +3 +5 +4 49 43 46 43 20 28 27 25 22 27 22 28 40 46 41 47 Democratic Held State Republican Held State Diverse States Rust Belt+ States All registered voters in battleground phone survey. 16

Unmarried women, especially white unmarried women, key to Democratic vote in Governor races Thinking about the election for Governor in your state in November, will you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate)? GOVERNOR BATTLEGROUND VOTE Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate +28 +72 +76 +26 -- +3 +9 +31 +24 +11 +10 +12 +11 78 87 59 31 55 29 45 45 46 43 40 49 60 58 29 34 52 51 41 41 52 51 40 40 6 11 Total Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Diverse Rust Belt+ Hispanic African American Millennial Millennial Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 17

ECONOMY 18

6-in-10 base, swing battleground voters: wages don t keep up Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right. The economy is strong and families like mine are beginning to be more financially secure. African Americans 36 14 The economy isn't very strong for families like mine because our salaries and incomes can't keep up with the cost of living. Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more 33 64 +28 Hispanic 38 15 32 62 +24 Millennials 44 15 28 56 +12 Millennials 45 15 28 55 +10 Unmarried 36 11 37 64 +28 Unmarried 38 12 34 62 +24 Working 43 16 28 57 Class +14 RAE+ battleground web-survey. 19

Majority says no tax cut benefit, especially unmarried women & African Americans Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right. I think the new tax cut law is benefitting me personally. African Americans 31 15 I don't think the new tax cut law is benefitting me personally. Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more 50 69 +38 Hispanic 42 17 30 58 +16 Millennials 45 19 29 55 +10 Millennials 48 20 25 52 +4 Unmarried 31 13 42 69 +38 Unmarried 32 13 41 68 +36 Working 39 13 28 61 Class +22 RAE+ battleground web-survey. 20

GOP VULNERABILITY TO ATTACKS 21

Democrats very strong on Social Security & health care costs, less on economy Please indicate whether, overall, you think the Democrats or Donald Trump and the Republicans would do a better a job. BETTER JOB IN BATTLEGROUND Republicans much better Republicans somewhat better Democrats much better Democrats somewhat better 33 The environment +34 16 42 67 Keeping us out of wars 35 16 37 65 +30 Social Security 41 20 38 59 +18 The cost of health care 42 21 35 58 +16 Gun violence 43 23 36 57 +14 The economy 44 26 31 56 +12 Immigration 45 31 37 55 +10 Taxes 45 24 30 55 +10 RAE+ battleground web-survey 22

GOP vulnerable on Medicare & Social Security, guns, health costs These are some positions of some candidates for the US Congress and other offices in your state. For each, please indicate whether that position would lead you to support or oppose that candidate for office, or whether that position won't make a difference to how you decide to vote. CANDIDATE LITMUS TEST Supports cuts to Medicare & Social Security to address the budget deficit. 71 Oppose much more Support much more 55 6 Oppose somewhat Support somewhat 18 NET +53 NO DIFF +11 Supports universal background checks and an assault weapon ban. 17 9 52 73 +56 +10 Supports the attempts to cut Medicaid, raise premiums & eliminate ACA protections for pre-existing conditions. 66 48 9 20 +46 +14 Supports a woman's right to choose. 21 12 46 65 +43 +14 Supports funding a wall on the Southern U.S. border. 49 36 23 39 +10 +12 RAE+ battleground web-survey. 23

Not as moved by daily headlines These are some positions of some candidates for the US Congress and other offices in your state. For each, please indicate whether that position would lead you to support or oppose that candidate for office, or whether that position won't make a difference to how you decide to vote. CANDIDATE LITMUS TEST continued Supports a pathway to citizenship for DREAMers. Oppose much more Support much more 21 11 Oppose somewhat Support somewhat 33 60 NET +39 NO DIFF +20 Supports the special counsel's investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election. 23 14 33 51 +28 +26 Believes Donald Trump and his policies discriminate against minorities. 37 29 33 48 +11 +15 Supports a work requirement for Medicaid recipients & cuts to food stamps. 40 22 23 48 +8 +12 Supports the new tax cuts for individuals and corporations. 34 17 22 48 +14 +18 RAE+ battleground web-survey. 24

Split on ACA, but Medicaid is extremely popular Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean: 65.1 MEDICAID +4 +42 +58 +36 +37 Mean: 49.7 Mean: 72.5 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 64.0 Mean: 63.9 +44 +39 Mean: 66.1 Mean: 61.2 +32 Mean: 60.2 +41 Mean: 65.0 46 60 70 56 56 61 58 53 59 34 39 51 39 36 41 37 32 38 12 8 14 12 12 13 15 12 36 18 12 20 19 17 19 21 18 42 ACA Medicaid Rising American Electorate African Americans Hispanics Millennial Unmarried Working Class Dem Held Gov Seats Rep Held Gov Seats RAE+ battleground web-survey. 25

Battleground voters have embraced the students of Parkland Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. THE STUDENT OF PARKLAND, FLORIDA ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) +25 +60 +36 +27 +49 +26 Mean: 63.1 Mean: 79.7 Mean: 65.5 Mean: 63.0 Mean: 76.1 Mean: 66.0 +13 +53 Mean: 44.6 Mean: 75.1 48 40 70 63 54 49 60 47 42 40 51 40 19 9 14 18 10 16 10 23 18 11 22 21 Total RV African Americans Hispanic Millennials Unmarried Working Class 28 19 31 41 Working Class Men 65 56 11 12 College All registered voters in battleground phone survey. 26

Health leads top Democratic attack in battleground These are some things that Democrats are saying about the Republicans running for US Congress and offices in your state. For each, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, somewhat serious doubts, minor doubts, and no real doubts about the Republican candidate. DEMOCRATIC ATTACKS ENOUGH POLITICS W/ HEALTH COSTS: Republicans promised my state better, cheaper health care. Instead they supported plans to massively cut Medicaid, raise prices on older workers, and eliminate protection for pre-existing conditions. Drug and insurance companies even got a new tax cut even though they are still raising prices on us here in my state. Enough politics and broken promises on health care. RAE+ RAE Very serious doubts Somewhat serious doubts 38 40 56 57 TRICKLE DOWN CUT MEANS LESS INVESTMENT: Trickle-down economics only works for the rich and big corporations, not middle class families of my state. But Republicans like my opponent supported the new $2.2 trillion trickledown tax law which gives 83 percent of the cuts to the top 1 percent, including their big corporate campaign donors. That is money that should have been used to invest in public schools, infrastructure, and bringing down health care costs here in my state. RAE+ RAE 37 38 54 56 ENOUGH NRA GUN INACTION: Sandy Hook, Orlando, Las Vegas, Texas, and now Parkland. For too long Republicans beholden to the NRA gun lobby's campaign contributions have held commonsense gun laws hostage. My opponent is taking donations from the NRA and gun manufacturers and refuses to stand with our children begging for universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons. (SPLIT A) Enough is enough! / (SPLIT B) I support the Second Amendment but enough is enough! RAE+ RAE 37 39 52 55 RAE+ battleground web-survey. 27

Health care costs attack tops but guns & trickle-down also potent These are some things that Democrats are saying about the Republicans running for US Congress and offices in your state. For each, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, somewhat serious doubts, minor doubts, and no real doubts about the Republican candidate. ENOUGH POLITICS WITH HEALTH CARE COSTS TRICKLE-DOWN TAX CUT MEANS LESS INVESTMENT ENOUGH NRA GUN INACTION Very serious doubts Somewhat serious doubts 68 72 67 61 62 62 63 59 59 59 56 56 51 48 46 51 52 49 56 54 50 50 46 47 56 56 52 41 40 43 31 31 32 36 34 36 29 29 29 46 43 43 42 38 41 34 31 32 African Americans Hispanic Millennials Millennial Millennials Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 28

GOP gun inaction gets most intense doubts across nearly every millennial group when you don t state 2 nd amendment support These are some things that Democrats are saying about the Republicans running for US Congress and offices in your state. For each, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, somewhat serious doubts, minor doubts, and no real doubts about the Republican candidate. ENOUGH POLITICS WITH HEALTH CARE COSTS TRICKLE-DOWN TAX CUT MEANS LESS INVESTMENT ENOUGH NRA GUN INACTION [+SUPPORT FOR 2 nd AMENDMENT] Very serious doubts Somewhat serious doubts 65 49 53 46 52 50 54 61 63 57 41 56 53 50 52 47 42 41 32 31 36 30 31 32 44 42 48 25 26 42 32 30 36 26 28 27 Diverse State Millennials Rust Belt+ State Millennials Minority Millennial Minority Millennial Men Millennial Millennial Men RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying the Enough NRA inaction by best performing split. 29

Emotional responses to Trump s handling of foreign affairs President Trump is doing thing other presidents were reluctant to do, like meeting with the leader of North Korea, imposing trade sanctions, and calling out close allies to their faces to change long-standing arrangements. Which TWO of the following statements most closely match your feelings about this? TRUMP HANDLING OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN BATTLEGROUND Democrats Independents Republicans Scared to death I can't believe it What can I do? I'm tuned out My eyes are covered Thank God, at last I was right 10 30 24 23 33 17 19 11 8 17 7 8 9 35 9 14 19 32 54 52 70 All registered voters in battleground phone survey. 30

NEW MESSAGE PLATFORM FOR 2018 31

Strongest message: stop short-term cuts for rich that threaten future These are some things that DEMOCRATS running for US Congress and offices in your state are saying. For each, please indicate whether you are much more likely, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or no more likely to support the DEMOCRATIC candidate who says that. DEMOCRATIC MESSAGES Much more likely to support Democrat Somewhat more likely to support Democrat STOP SHORT-TERM FOR RICH THREATENING OUR FUTURE: My state needs a plan for a better future, not more short-term political deals and shortsighted cuts to the things we need. We need to invest in education and infrastructure, not cut them. We need to protect Social Security and Medicare, not threaten your retirement with more tax cuts for the rich and corporations. RAE+ RAE 44 46 62 64 FED UP WITH RIGGED ECONOMY: I'm fed up. Our economy and politics are rigged against hard-working people here in my state. Corporate donors are spending unlimited sums supporting my opponent to get their way. I will say no to big money and trickle-down economics (SPLIT: and make sure the rich and corporations pay their fair share of taxes) so we can help people with the rising cost of health care, childcare, housing and student debt and protect Social Security and Medicare RAE+ RAE 41 42 58 59 BREAK THE POLARIZATION: Like you, I am done with all of the polarization dividing our families and gridlocking out government so nothing good gets done. I will be an independent voice for people here in my state and will work with anyone, Democrat or Republican, to fix our problems. That is how we will help people with the rising cost of health care, childcare, housing and student debt and protect Social Security and Medicare RAE+ RAE 37 39 59 61 RAE+ battleground web-survey. 32

African American woman, Detroit Somehow or another you're going to pay for it. I think that the difference is going to have to be made up at some point and it's going to come from the middle-class not from the. 1 or. 01 percent that just are retaining billions. We're getting $250. We're going to pay back those trillions back. college woman, Southfield To hear about them making cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security when the people who already receive those benefits are already struggling as it is. Especially our seniors. working class older woman, Macomb I mean [Trump] could give you like 2 or 3 thousand [dollars a year] but when we're paying 12 thousand a year for insurance, the 2 or 3 is nothing. It doesn't mean anything. It just doesn't make any difference to me. Unless you're going to put something into healthcare for me, I don't care. college woman, Southfield 33

Strongest message: stop short-term cuts for rich that threaten future These are some things that DEMOCRATS running for US Congress and offices in your state are saying. For each, please indicate whether you are much more likely, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or no more likely to support the DEMOCRATIC candidate who says that. STOP SHORT-TERM FOR RICH THREATENING OUR FUTURE My state needs a plan for a better future, not more short-term political deals and short-sighted cuts to the things we need. We need to invest in education and infrastructure, not cut them. We need to protect Social Security and Medicare, not threaten your retirement with more tax cuts for the rich and corporations. FED UP WITH RIGGED ECONOMY I'm fed up. Our economy and politics are rigged against hard-working people here in my state. Corporate donors are spending unlimited sums supporting my opponent to get their way. I will say no to big money and trickle-down economics (SPLIT: and make sure the rich and corporations pay their fair share of taxes) so we can help people with the rising cost of health care, childcare, housing and student debt and protect Social Security and Medicare Much more likely to support Democrat 83 79 66 64 60 56 Somewhat more likely to support Democrat 67 61 54 50 67 62 61 56 55 50 67 66 46 46 39 36 45 41 33 30 51 46 45 39 39 35 African American Hispanic Millennial Millennial Millennial Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 34

Messaging produces major shifts in interest in voting in November How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION +6 +3 +12 +8 +7 +6 +5 +8 37 43 43 46 40 52 24 32 25 32 39 45 42 47 36 44 Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Rising American Electorate African American Hispanic Millennials Millennials Unmarried Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 35

Democrats keep daunting lead on enthusiasm How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. And how much do the elections this November for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning they don't matter at all and 10 meaning they matter tremendously. SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION & ELECTION MATTERS +6 +7 +6 37 43 44 51 31 37 Interest initial Interest re-ask Interest initial Interest re-ask Interest Initial Interest Re-ask Rising American Electorate Democrats Republicans RAE+ battleground web-survey. Displaying Democrats, independents, and Republicans by RAE only. 36

Higher interest with these margins deadly for Republicans How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested. 85 SHIFT IN %10 INTEREST IN ELECTION & FINAL CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT +76 +33 +9 +30 +13 +3 +12 +8 +6 +8 9 43 46 31 64 40 52 41 50 24 32 32 62 39 45 53 40 36 44 Rep Dem Initial Reask Rep Dem Initial Reask Rep Dem Initial Reask Rep Dem Initial Reask Rep Dem Initial Reask African American Hispanic Millennials Unmarried Working Class RAE+ battleground web-survey. 37

DEMOCRACY CORPS 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW Floor 10 Washington, DC 20009 Phone: +1 202 499 6901 www.democracycorps.com GREENBERG RESEARCH 1101 15 th Street NW Suite 900 Washington, DC 20004 Phone: +1 202 478 8300 www.greenbergresearch.com WOMEN S VOICES WOMEN VOTE ACTION FUND 1707 L Street, N.W. Suite 300 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: +1 202 659 9570 www.wvwvaf.org