The University of Southern Mississippi The Aquila Digital Community Dissertations Spring 5-2009 China and the United States: A Balance of Power William Jeffery Stephens University of Southern Mississippi Follow this and additional works at: http://aquila.usm.edu/dissertations Part of the American Politics Commons, Asian Studies Commons, International Relations Commons, and the Leadership Studies Commons Recommended Citation Stephens, William Jeffery, "China and the United States: A Balance of Power" (2009). Dissertations. 1044. http://aquila.usm.edu/dissertations/1044 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by The Aquila Digital Community. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of The Aquila Digital Community. For more information, please contact Joshua.Cromwell@usm.edu.
The University of Southern Mississippi CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES: A BALANCE OF POWER by William Jeffery Stephens Abstract of a Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Studies Office of The University of Southern Mississippi in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 2009
COPRIGHT B WILLIAM JEFFER STEPHENS 2009
The University of Southern Mississippi CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES: A BALANCE OF POWER by William Jeffery Stephens A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Studies Office of The University of Southern Mississippi in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Approved May 2009
ABSTRACT CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES: A BALANCE OF POWER by William Jeffery Stephens May 2009 Throughout world history states have banded together to form coalitions, alliances, and economic agreements with each other to protect and secure their borders, develop their economic prosperity, and grow their political relationships. Alliances, economic agreements, and political relationships have come and gone, decreased or increased, and continue to be at times as fluid as water. During the Cold War the international system had a bipolar structure, with the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies balancing against the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. What makes countries align themselves with other countries economically, politically and militarily? There are many questions that have yet to be answered and some that probably never will. Since the end of the Cold War China has begun to develop into the next balancing superpower to the United States, a position that was previously held by the Soviet Union. This dissertation will identify the various realist and neo-realist theories as to why governments form military alliances or coalitions, and economic and political relationships, along with the factors that alliance theories are formed on. II
It will also posit the theory that China and the United States could produce the next Balance of Power in the international system. As China has increased its military strength, political influence, and economic power, its capacity to counter or balance against the United States and its allies has also increased. China is filling the void once held by the Soviet Union by increasing its political influence, economic power, and its security relative to that of the United States since the end of the Cold War. in
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to thank the dissertation committee, Dr. Tom Lansford, Dr. Patti Phillips, and Dr. Troy Gibson for their insightful observations and suggestions in the research and writing of this dissertation. The author would like to especially thank the committee chair, Dr. Bob Pauly for his attention to detail, comments, suggestions, patience, guidance, and his commitment to the progression of this dissertation. IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ACKNOWLEDGMENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF GRAPHS LIST OF ACRONMS ii iv viii ix x CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION 1 Research Question Hypothesis Background Overview of Research Justification for Research Structure of the Research II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE 13 Introduction Discussion on Realism Discussion on Neo Realism Discussion on Liberalism Discussion on Neo-Liberalism Discussion on International Systems Overview of Alliance Theories Balance of Power / Against Threat Discussion on Balancing, Bandwagoning, Free Riders and Buckpassing Discussion on Hard and Soft Power Economic Theory Cultural Theory Ideology Theory Coalitions Alliance Theory Review v
III. METHODOLOG... 56 Discussion on Historical Research Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Data Collection IV. CHINA'S RISE TO SUPERPOWER STATUS 71 Examination of China's Economic Growth China's Growing Need for Natural Resources Examination of China's Security and Military Buildup Examination of the Increase of China's Political Influence Conclusions V. RISING CHINESE POWER AND SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS 98 An Introduction to the Relationship between China and the United States China's Economic Relationships and Their Impact on the United States China's Political Relationships and Their Impact on the United States China's Security Relationships and Their Impact on the United States Conclusions VI. ANALSIS 135 Introduction Demographics Economics Politics Security Conclusions VII. CONCLUSIONS 169 Strengths and Weaknesses Alternative Arguments Closing Thoughts and Future of Sino-American Relations VI
REFERENCES 185 Primary Secondary VII
Table LIST OF TABLES 1. early GDP Stats on China and the United States 111 2. China's Oil Imports by Region (% percentage) 112 3. Exports of Selected Economies to China 113 4. China's Source of Imports as a Percentage of Total Imports 114 5. China's Bilateral Partnerships 117 6. United Nations Important Votes 122 7. China and the United States GDP and Military Budgets 130 VIM
LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1. China's Source of Exports (as a percentage of total exports) 143 2. Exports China's Source of Imports (as a percentage of total imports) 144 3. China's Gross Domestic Product In Chinese uan vs. U.S. Dollar 145 4. China's Gross Domestic Product Converted to U.S. Dollar.. 146 5. China's Gross Domestic Product with Purchasing Power Parity Applied 148 6. China's Voting Record on Important Votes 154 7. China's Memberships in IGO's as a Percentage of US Memberships 156 8. China and the United States Military Budgets in US Dollars 161 9. China and the United States Military Budgets with Purchasing Power Parity applied 162 10. Military Budgets as a Percentage of GDP 163 IX
LIST OF ACRONMS ADR CCP GDP IGO NATO PRC ROC ROK U.S. US USA WTO Annual Report to the President and to Congress Chinese Communist Party Gross Domestic Product International Governmental Organizations North Atlantic Treaty Organization Peoples Republic of China Republic of China Republic of Korea United States United States United States of America World Trade Organization X
1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION In the last two decades China has increased its military, political and economic power, expanding its global reach and its degree of influence with other states. China is developing a military that is already stronger than those of most states in the world and could eventually rival that of the United States. It is also growing economically at a pace that few states can contend with, with an annual rate of nearly 10 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since the end of the Cold War in 1989. There has been some controversy over what rate China has grown at, though Fishman (2005) finds that "Since China set about reforming its economy a generation ago, it has grown at an official rate of 9.5 percent" (p. 12). Others suggest that the growth could be a little shy of this rate, though this is still astonishing. Shenkar (2005) states, "Some observers discount the Chinese growth numbers as exaggerated, but shaving a point, as they suggest, of a GDP growth rate of seven to eight percent would still leave China with the most rapid growth rate in either the developed or developing world over a sustainable time period" (p. 2). China is also developing its political capabilities, building relationships with states around the globe, and participating in United Nations (UN) discussions and decisions more openly than in the past, when China generally kept to itself, safeguarding its sovereignty in the belief that the Communist Party would govern the Chinese people and that
2 outsiders would not direct Beijing how to manage its affairs. As states develop economic, military and political relationships with China, many oppose the United States and its allies, thus creating a balance of power between the two. This balance of power is comparable to the balance of power between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War. In the last decade there has been a significant American and global focus on the Middle East and the Global War on Terror. There are also many other problems that arise daily around the globe, but China's growing influence and interactions with other states have become increasingly prominent. This dissertation will focus on the extent to which the United States has begun to lose its global influence, while China concurrently increases its global influence. From a historical perspective, one could consider China's actions as those of a rising power, in accordance with the tenets of both realism and neo-realism. As Bush and O'Hanlon (2007) assert, "A special interaction occurs in the international system when a formally weak country quickly accumulates money and military muscle and thereby reorders the previous power hierarchy. And it is usually the strongest and most established state, the one that has the greatest stake in the existing order, that watches the upstart most carefully" (p. 13). Further, Bush and O'Hanlon (2007) stress that "some scholars claim that world politics are
3 actually the most unstable when a rising power confronts the leading status quo power" (p. 13). Research Question The research question for this dissertation is as follows: What factors have driven China to increase its power relative to that of the United States through the development of economic, political and security relationships with other states in the international system since the end of the Cold War? Hypothesis The hypothesis for this dissertation is as follows: As a result of its growing demand for natural resources to fuel its expanding economy and military capabilities, China has used the development of economic, political and security relationships with other states in the international system to increase its power significantly relative to that of the United States since the end of the Cold War. China's efforts to achieve these objectives are in accordance with the behavioral tendencies of rising powers in the international system under the tenets of realism and neorealism.
4 Background To develop a clear understanding of why alliances form, research was conducted on international relations theories, international systems theories, and alliance theories in order to gain knowledge as to how states become regional and global powers in the international system. According to Walt, States form alliances primarily to balance against threats. Threats, in turn, are a function of power, geographic proximity, offensive capabilities, and perceived intentions. Throughout the cold war, the Soviet Union posed a greater threat to the major powers of Eurasia than the United States did. As 'balance-of-threat' theory predicts, these states balanced by allying with the United States, creating a global coalition that was both remarkably stable and significantly than the Soviet alliance network (1987, p. vi). For the most part, alliances are formal agreements that are formed and agreed upon through written and signed documents (treaties) such as the Washington Treaty through which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was established in April 1949. Coalitions are less formal, ad hoc and temporary arrangements that are reactions to specific threats such as American President George W. Bush's "coalition of the willing" formed to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan in the fall of 2001 (Snyder, 1990). This dissertation will focus on security alliances and the factors that cause alliances to form, the increasing political influence of China, and the economic growth that China has exhibited since the end of the Cold War. It is important to note that this dissertation will not focus
5 only on military alliances and coalitions, but also examine economic and political relationships that do not involve formal alliances. The latter two types of relationships have been indispensable to China's economic growth and increases in its global political influence. One question that needs to be addressed is: what is 'power' and how does a state become a superpower as power is the core concept for realists (Viotti & Kauppi, 1999). One definition of power is from Robert A. Scalapino, who writes, Power is a many-faceted force in the contemporary world. Undoubtedly, military strength, including the capacity to keep abreast of the revolutionary changes in military strategy now taking place, is of critical importance in addressing a nation's role in a regional or global balance of power. However, a nation's strength is also determined by such factors as size and location and, notably, by its economy, its political stability, and its overall relations with key external nations (2004, p. 368). Other considerations and definitions of power also need to include the further distinction of "hard power" and "soft power". Hard power is the state's ability to use force or economic means to influence another state's actions. Soft power is a state's use of diplomatic means to influence the actions and decisions of other states. What Nye finds it that a states soft power comes from three sources; its culture, its political value, and its foreign policies (2004). As China continues to gain power it has done so especially in the area of "soft power". China has made numerous state visits and has invited various state dignitaries to China in an effort to grow its relationships and enhance its global political standing.
6 As is true of the Middle East, Asia is a region of the world where America's presence and policies could lead to war or cooperation (Jisi, 2005). Consequently, the United States will need to remain focused on Asia as well as the Middle East. Problems continue around Taiwan and the China Sea. China and the United States have held relationships that have been both positive and negative throughout history. Currently the U.S. position over Taiwan and the region is: "To help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote our broad foreign policy objectives we are implementing fully the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act by maintaining robust unofficial relations between the American people and the people of Taiwan" (Bush, 2002). Many suggest that the Taiwan and its current position, that of a separate state and not one with China, may be the catalyst that could push China and the United States to war. play: Bush and O'Hanlon (2007) suggest how this war could come into Taiwan could take a major political step toward strengthening its sovereignty that its leaders might believe is reasonable and moderate but that China views as a separatist declaration of independence. Alternatively, even if Taiwan remains comfortable with the status quo, China could grow impatient about Taiwan's refusal to agree to prompt unification on its terms. In a fog of miscommunication and politics, and enraged China prepares to attack the island while Taiwan's leaders assume American support. The United States, bound by decades of promises and a strong sense of moral obligation to Taiwan, warns China should not use military force and strongly suggests that the United States will defend the island (p. 10).
7 China would like to impose a "One China" concept that is inclusive of Taiwan. The August 2002 Annual Report to the President and to Congress (ADR) states, "Maintaining a stable balance in Asia will be both a critical and formidable task. The possibility exists that a military competitor with a substantial resource base will emerge in the region" (Rumsfeld, 2002, p. 11). Moving forward on the subject of Taiwan, the United States has stated in its 2006 National Security Strategy: "China and Taiwan must also resolve their differences peacefully, without coercion and without unilateral action by either China or Taiwan "(Bush, 2006, p. 42). Andrew Scobell has indicated that China's military has become a more modern force that is better educated, equipped with a more dynamic capability and mindset that focuses not on what was the "people's war" but now on warfare that is aimed at peaceful means by better technology (Scobell, 2005). Scobell also suggests that the economic reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1978 have fueled an uninterrupted growth that has lasted for over 25 years sustaining economic growth and prosperity in China (2005). Fishman indicates that China's military from a personnel perspective is over five times the size of that of the United States with more than two and a half million people (2005). Fishman also identifies that there are more than 220 million surplus workers in China's central and
8 western regions which is considerably more than the number of people working in the United States. (Fishman, 2005) Overview of Research This dissertation will identify the factors found in the realist and neo-realist literature on the formation of military alliances and other economic and political relationships between states and apply them to China's growth, economically, politically, and militarily, in an attempt to support the theory that China's growth to superpower status has influenced the development of such relationships involving China, the United States and other states and international organizations. It will also demonstrate that China's political influence has increased considerably, as has China's economic power. Ultimately, the dissertation will present evidence to suggest that as a result of these three developments, China is in a position to join the United States in forming the next bipolar global balance of power. This dissertation does not intend to support the same balance of power that was once in place between the United States and the Soviet Union with a contentious escalation of military hardware and state tensions during the Cold War, but that there is a new balance of power between China and its allies and the United States and its allies where the two powers have the ability to offset each other in both positive and negative ways that have been evident since the end of the Cold War and remain so in today's international system.
9 Justification for Research With America's present emphasis on the Middle East, there needs to be a greater American emphasis on the Asia Pacific region, especially with respect to China. If the United States continues to focus on the current hot bed, there is the possibility that it may miss the growth of what could become the next great power that will have the ability to balance American power. Power transitions, resurgent Asian nationalism, and poor policy choices in Washington have supposedly undermined U.S. leadership in Asia. According to critics, the Bush administration has been distracted by Iraq, has failed to deal adequately with China's economic and political rise, and has alienated many Asians with its singular focus on counterterrorism (Cha, 2007). Economic, political and military growth and influence continues at a rapid pace. If China not kept in check, the influence and power of the United States will continue to diminish is. China does have a vision of returning to its past greatness. Structure of the Research This dissertation will include six main chapters and a concluding chapter. Chapter II reviews the literature on the structure of the international system and the behavior of the states interacting therein in order to better understand the characteristics of unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar international systems and behavior of states interacting therein under the tenets of realism and neo-realism on one hand and liberalism
10 and neo-liberal institutionalism on the other as these theories will formulate the thought behind balance of power theory and a bipolar balance of power. This dissertation will follow the basic realist premise that states are the most significant and influential actors in the international system and, in turn, the "search for power and security is the dominant logic in global politics, and that states as the primary actors in the arena have no choice but to accumulate the means of violence in the pursuit of self preservation: the 'international' is a self-help system" (Burchill, 1996). From the neo-realist perspective, this dissertation will also address the external means that influence international systems. Burchill (1996) finds that "neo-realists such as Waltz point to the anarchical condition of the international realm which imposes the accumulation of power as a systemic requirement on states" (p. 90). Chapter III discusses the methodology for the dissertation, providing the outline and guidance for the structure of the research. The explanatory theoretical basis for the dissertation is drawn from the realist and neo-realist perspectives. The qualitative method of historical research will be used to provide the background and data needed to conclude and support the dissertation with comparative analysis of China's growth relative to the United States. Chapter IV will examine the growth of China's economic and military power and political influence in Asia and at the global level over the last twenty years. China has grown at an alarming pace and is a
11 rising power that can challenge the United States. The growth of China both economically and militarily brings to light this sleeping giant that is quickly awakening. China has also developed a soft power presence and has begun to make deals with many states that have a disdain for the United States. China has developed military and economic partnerships or trade with Venezuela, Iran, and Syria, all of which would like nothing other than the see the relative power and influence of the United States decrease. Another consideration in China's growth is how to feed that growth. China's growth has also had an impact on its consumption of natural resources. China will need to fuel its billions of people; its consumption of oil and other natural resources will also limit what is available for other states, namely the United States. There is now and will continue to be competition for these scarce resources. China and the United States do not have a completely polarized view of each other. There are some commonalities between the two states where there is agreement on some grounds. Both states do believe in the fight against terrorism as a start. Chapter V will identify the relationship between China and the United States and look at both sides to identify both the positives and negatives of this relationship. This effort will also gather the demographic data that can be obtained on each state, along with its military capacity and economic information. In this portion of the research, there will also
12 be an effort to identify military alliances and economic and political relationships that have formed either for China or the United States. The last chapters will present the analysis of the evidence in Chapter VI and a set of conclusions in Chapter VII. Analysis of the data will be to identify if the actions of China had any influence on the formation of any alliance that may have formed or strengthened and that China has increased its power relative to that of the United States.
13 CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE Introduction This dissertation is written from the perspective of the realist theory of international relations. Realist theories have developed and evolved over the years so it is important to understand the roots of realism and its transformation to modern political science. This chapter will discuss the concepts of both realism and neo-realism. The works of many, including E. H. Carr, Hans Morgenthau, and Inis Claude, supports the theory of realism. Neo-realism, too, has many advocates, including, most notably, Kenneth Waltz, John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt. More specifically, it will focus on the international systems and alliance theories, which are central to the arguments, put forward in the dissertation. As China continues its growth, the economic, political, and security relationships it has developed with other states will contribute to the development of a balance of power between China and the United States. Carr (1946) begins with his initial development in his discussion on physical Science and political science outlining the differences where physical sciences are fact based. Carr (1946) comes to the conclusion that political science is different, and finds: In the political sciences, which are concerned with human behavior, there are no such facts. The investigator is inspired by the desire to cure some ill of the body of politic. Among the causes of the
14 trouble, he diagnoses the fact that human beings normally react to certain conditions in a certain way. But this is not a fact comparable with the fact that human bodies react in a certain way to certain drugs. It is a fact which may be changed by the desire to change it; and this desire, already present in the mind of the investigator, may be extended, as the result of his investigation to a sufficient number of other human beings to make it effective.... In both physical and political sciences, the point is soon reached where the initial stage of wishing must be succeeded by a stage of hard and ruthless analysis. The difference is that political sciences can never wholly emancipate themselves from utopianism, and that political scientist is apt to linger for a longer initial period than the physical scientist in the Utopian stage of development (p. 9). It is widely regarded that Carr and Morgenthau took the lead in the establishment of modern realism. Burchill (Burchill, 1996) states, "the work of E. H. Carr and Hans Morgenthau, widely regarded as the founding fathers of modern or 'traditional' realism"(p. 7). E.H. Carr's The Twenty ears Crisis (1939) is not a textbook of international theory, but a critique of the prevailing wisdom of its day. Published on the eve of the Second World War, it was a devastating attack on liberal 'utopianism' which had inspired the post great war political arrangements in Europe, most particularly the idea of collective security as it was enshrined in the institution of the League of Nations (Burchill, 1996). Carr's posit of realism in his day was in counter to utopianism and the concerns that power had been ignored in understanding political decisions. What Burchill finds is that Carr believed that realism was 'a necessary corrective to the exuberance of utopianism' which had ignored the central element of power in its consideration of international politics (Burchill, 1996).
15 Looking at the works of Morgenthau (1948), he finds that six principles of political realism. First, Morgenthau notes, "Political realism believes that politics, like society in general, is governed by objective laws that have their roots in human nature. In order to improve society it is first necessary to understand the laws by which society lives" (p. 4). Second, "The main signpost that helps political realism to find its way through the landscape of international politics is the concept of interest defined in terms of power" (p. 5). Third, "Realism assumes that its key concept of interest defined as power is an objective category which is universally valid, but it does not endow that concept with a meaning that is fixed once and for all"(p. 10). Fourth, "Political realism is aware of the moral significance of political action" (p. 12). Fifth, "Political realism refuses to identify the moral aspirations of a particular nation with moral laws that govern the universe" (p. 13). Sixth, "The difference, then, between political realism and other schools of thought is real, and it is profound" (p. 13). Morgenthau, as with Carr, also brings in the need for facts in relationship to realist theory. He states: "For realism, theory consists of ascertaining facts and giving them meaning through reason" (1966, p. 4). Carr also finds the need for facts and states: "In the field of thought it places its emphasis on the acceptance of facts and on the analysis of their causes and consequences" (1946, p. 10). Though this dissertation is written from the realist perspective, it is important to understand liberalism and neo-liberal institutionalism as well.
16 Burchill (1996) states on liberalism "It has championed limited government and scientific rationality, believing individuals should be free from arbitrary state power, persecution and superstition, also it has advocated political freedom, democracy and constitutionally guaranteed rights, and privileged the liberty of the individual and equality before the law" (p. 29). Burchill (1996) also finds that liberalism promotes 'competition in civil society' and 'market capitalism' is the most efficient manner in which scarce resources are allocated in a society. Looking at neoliberalism one would find that it pertains to economics, specifically that the control of the economy would move from the public sector to the private sector. Many of the initial aspects of the theory begin with Adam Smith and his theories found in his book The Wealth of Nations; though this precedes the theory of neoliberalism it does find its roots in the economic theory. Discussion on Realism "Realism is widely regarded as the most influential theoretical tradition in International Relations, even by its harshest critics. Its ancient philosophical heritage, its powerful critique of liberal internationalism and its influence on the practice of international diplomacy have secured it an important, if not dominant position in the discipline. No other theory has given as much form and structure to the study of international politics, especially to the sub-fields of Security Studies and International Political Economy"(Burchill, 1996, p. 70). What Burchill is discussing here is what
17 is considered 'classical realism,' which is found in the works of Morgenthau, Carr, Wright, and Claude. Their works have set the foundation for much of political thought for many past generations and even future generations to come. Realism for the most part is just what it implies and that is explaining decisions in politics as they are. Burchill provides a good explanation of realism in a simple statement and that is, As its name implies, realism seeks to describe and explain the world of international politics as it is, rather than how we might like it to be. Accordingly, the world is revealed to realists as a dangerous and insecure place, where violence is regrettable but endemic. In their account of the conflict nature of international politics, realists give high priority to the centrality of the nation-state in their considerations, acknowledging it as the supreme political authority in the world (1996, p. 70). As one can see, Burchill brings into play a few other thoughts on realism that are central to the theory of realism and that is the centrality of the state. This is an important concept, as states will ultimately make the decisions within the political system. This concept is a basic premise of realism. Supporting this concept Lansford states, "Realism emphasizes the primacy of the state as the main actor in global affairs and the presence of anarchy in the international system" (2002, p. 22). States will ultimately make the decisions that affect the affairs of the state at all levels from local issues to global issues that could be inclusive of its allies. There are four assumptions that realism is based on. First, states are the principal actors within the system. States represent the unit that
18 measurement or analysis is based on. There are non-state actors that play a role within the international system, but they are secondary. These non-state actors include international organizations and corporations or even terrorist organizations that do play a role but from the realist perspective the state is the primary actor most important in the system. Second, states are unitary actors. That is to say that the state will resolve any differences within the state and has the authority to do so. The state will make the decisions for the whole. Third, the state is a rational actor and states will maximize the utility or costs associated with the decisions that will be made on behalf of the state. Fourth, national security is the most important issue of the state (Viotti & Kauppi, 1999). Carr also suggests that this simple explanation of realism and the ability to deduce what is real as opposed to what should be and how equilibrium will never be reached in reality, noting that, The antithesis of utopia and reality - a balance always swinging towards and away from equilibrium and never completely attaining it - is a fundamental antithesis revealing itself in many forms of thought. The two methods of approach - the inclination to ignore what was and what is in contemplation of what should be, and the inclination to deduce what should be from what was and what is - determine opposite attitudes towards every political problem(1946, P- 11)-- Along with the concept that the state is central to the realist theory is the contention that security is the first order of business for the state and that the decisions states will make will be for the security of the state. Jackson and Sorenson state, "The normative core of realism is national
19 security and state survival: these are the values that drive realist doctrine and realist foreign policy" (2003, p. 69). Supporting the concept of the centrality of the state and the decisions states make on behalf of ensuring security, Gilpin states, the essence of social reality is the group...in a world of scarce resources and conflict over distribution of those resources and conflict over the distribution of those resources, human beings confront one another ultimately as members of groups, and not as isolated individuals (1986, p. 305). A central assumption found in realist theory is that human nature is pessimistic, that there is ultimately war between states, that the ultimate goal of the state is security and that it is doubtful that political systems can be effective. Jackson and Sorenson find that, Basic realist ideas and assumptions are: (1) a pessimistic view of human nature; (2) a conviction that international relations are necessarily conflictual and that international conflicts are ultimately resolved by war; (3) a high regard for the values of national security sand state survival; (4) a basic skepticism that there can be progress in international politics that is comparable to that in domestic political life (2003, p. 68). This view of human nature is the long-standing pillar in realist theory and that is a key driver of how or why decisions are made within political systems. To further support this pessimistic view of realism, Burchill finds, Realists are unified in their pessimism about the extent to which the international political system can be made more peaceful and just. The international realm is characterized by conflict, suspicion and competition between nation-states, a logic which thwarts the realization of alternative world orders. Realism is a pessimistic theoretical tradition. Fundamental changes to the structure of the international system are unlikely, even if they are needed. The
20 apparent immutability of the international system means that it will not come to resemble domestic liberal orders, however desirable the analogue may be. For realists, international politics is a world of recurrence and repetition, not reform or radical change (1996, p. 70). What Morgenthau states on the theory of realism is that the world is imperfect from a rational point of view, that to improve the world one must work with the forces of human nature and not against them. Morgenthau also suggests that we live in a world of opposing interests, that there is conflict among those interests and that moral interests can never be fully realized and must be approximated in an effort to continually balance the world order (Morgenthau, 1948). There are assumptions that are held to be true in realism. Three of them are that states are rational actors with goals in mind. If states are to be the central actors in the political system, there must be a strategy to achieve these goals. The second assumption is that states have autonomy and that they will make decisions for the whole and in the best interest of the whole. The third assumption is that states have the capacity to act and when they do act it is for the whole state. Grieco states these three assumptions about states are interrelated. Within this cluster, Grieco finds that states are rational actors that are goal oriented, with strategies designed to achieve these goals and secondly, that these goals are consistent within the state and that there is a preferred outcome over another. Another aspect of this component of the cluster is that
21 states are 'cost sensitive' and will observe any success or failures of other states in order to attain the goals set forth. The second component of the cluster of realist assumptions is that states are autonomous and can make decisions for the whole of the state no matter the group. What is observed is that there are many groups within the whole of the state that are powerful and that decisions and strategies must be made for the whole and not just the powerful groups within the community. The third and last component of the realist cluster of assumptions is that a state must have the ability to call for a unity of action when dealing with other states. It is important that one understand the importance here, because if powerful entities within a state go outside the decisions made on behalf of the whole, there could be concerns that run counter to the strategy set forth be the decision makers on behalf of the whole, and that there must be a centrality as to the decisions made (Grieco, 1997). One of the main themes of realism is that of security. To ensure that a state is secure, it must maintain both hard power and soft power. States must be able ensure their survival through their decisions and actions; therefore, states maintain authority to make the decisions they will have to make. From the very beginnings of realist thought, one finds this concept of power in all aspects a state's pursuit of interests. Thucydides, Machiavelli, Hobbs, and indeed all classical realists... They believe that the goal of power, the means of power, and the
22 use of power, are a central preoccupation of political activity. International politics is thus portrayed as - above all else - 'power polities': an arena of rivalry, conflict, and war between states in which the same basic problems of defending the national interest and ensuring the continued survival of the state repeat themselves over and over again (Jackson & Sorensen, 2003, p. 68). One of the thoughts around realism and adding factual findings along with an understanding of human behavior is the ability to predict political events. Burchill finds that, the early realists recognized the need for international political reform and were not blind to alternative forms of political organization. For them, the nation-state was not necessarily the ultimate expression of political community. And though their accounts seem unscientific and lacking in intellectual precision, many early realist believed that they could uncover the patterns and laws of international politics through a more sophisticated understanding of human nature. The most important of these early realists are E.H. Carr and Hans Morgenthau (1996, p. 71). Carr was concerned with the liberal thought of the day with the League of Nations and a collective security structure. Carr's concern with this thinking was that "Secret diplomacy would be abolished and replaced by public consent in the conduct of foreign policy. The balance of power principle would give way to a system of collective security, where individual acts of aggression would be met by the collective force of world opinion and military power" (Burchill, 1996, p. 71). Carr felt that the best way to have a stable international system was through a balance of power. If there were a balance in the international system there would be peace. "Far from being a cause of international conflict as the liberals had argued, the balance of power system
23 resembled the laws of nature: it was the normal expression of international power and the best guarantee of peace. Collective security, the liberal alternative, was little more than a method of placing predominant power in the hands of the victorious states, thus institutionalizing the status quo" (Burchill, 1996, p. 72). Mearsheimer discusses his theory on realism and provides his theory of offensive realism and describes neo-realism or structural realism as defensive realism. Defensive realism, which is frequently referred to as "structural realism" came on the scene in the late 1970s with the appearance of Waltz's Theory of International Politics. Unlike Morgenthau, Waltz does not assume that great powers are inherently aggressive because they are infused with a will to power; instead he starts by assuming that states merely aim to survive. Above all else, they seek security. Nevertheless, he maintains that the structure of the international system forces great powers to pay careful attention to the balance of power. In particular, anarchy forces security-seeking states to compete with each other for power, because power is the best means to survival (2001, p. 19). manner: Mearsheimer defines his theory of offensive realism in the following My theory of offensive realism is also a structural theory of international politics. As with defensive realism, my theory sees great powers as concerned mainly with figuring out how to survive in a world where there is no agency to protect them from each other; they quickly realize that power is the key to their survival. Offensive realism parts company with defensive realism over the question of how much power states want. For defensive realists, the international structure provides states with little incentive to seek additional increments of power; instead it pushes them to maintain the existing balance of power. Preserving power, rather than increasing it, is the main goal of states. Offensive realists, on the other hand believe that status quo powers are rarely found in world politics, because the international system creates powerful
24 incentives for states to look for opportunities to gain power at the expense of rivals, and to take advantage of those situations when the benefits outweigh the costs. A state's ultimate goal is to be the hegemon in the system (2001, p. 21). Discussion on Neo- Realism Kenneth Waltz promulgated neo-realism in the 1979 book, Theory of International Politics. Burchill states that neo-realism is a modern variant of realism and that "the neo-realism of Kenneth Waltz which emerged in the 1980s as arguably the dominant theory of international relations" (1996, p. 87). What Kenneth Waltz has done for realism is that he has brought structure to the theory and made it more scientific. Waltz has suggested that international systems are like economic markets are formed by the 'coaction of self-regarding units'. Waltz suggests is that 'city states, empires, or nations' form International structures. These are the units that are used to measure within the international system (Waltz, 1979). To further this support neo-realism as the leading theory of the last few decades George finds that, The dominant academic theory of international politics - variously referred to as structural realism or sometimes neo-realism - deals only with basic structural features of the international system: the "anarchical" nature of the system, the relative distribution of power, and the importance of the balance of power. This theory draws on the tradition of political realism, which has ancient roots in the writing of Thucydides, and attempts to transform classical realism into a scientific-deductive theory that focuses on the structure of the international system (2005, p. 108).
25 Where neo-realism differs from realism is that it relies on the structure of the system; that there are forces that influence decisions within the international system. Waltz wanted to also further the theory of realism into a more scientific theory. George states: "Waltz attempted to convert it into a scientifically respectable deductive theory, one that relies on structural attribute of the international system to generate predictions and provide a basis for explaining outcomes of international politics" (2005, p. 109). Waltz also disregards human nature and what diplomats do to influence decisions in the international system. Jackson and Sorensen find that "Unlike Morgenthau (1985), [Waltz] gives no account of human nature and he ignores the ethics of statecraft" (2003, p. 84). What neo-realism focuses on is that there are external forces, units, and structures found in the international system and those externalities are what cause decisions to be made. In Waltz's view the best IR theory is a neo-realist system theory that focuses centrally on the structure of the system, on its interacting units, and on the continuities and changes of the system. In classical realism, state leaders and their subjective valuations of international relations are at the center of attention. In neo-realism, by contrast, the structure of the system, in particular the relative distribution of power, is the central analytical focus. Actors are less important because structures compel them to act in certain ways. Structures more or less determine actions. (Jackson & Sorensen, 2003, p. 85)
26 One of the reasons that neo-realism does not focus on the centrality of the state is that basically most states are the same, that their only real difference is in their capabilities. According to Waltz's neo-realist theory, a basic feature of international relations is the decentralized structure of anarchy between states. States are alike in all basic functional respects - i.e. in spite of all their different cultures or ideologies or constitutions or personnel they all perform the same basic tasks. All states have to collect taxes, conduct foreign policy, etc. States differ significantly only in regard to their greatly varying capabilities (Jackson & Sorensen, 2003, p. 85). To further support the concept that states are basically the same in all aspects other than capability, Burchill finds, Neo-realism provides a convincing account of why the foreign policies of nation-states are so familiar, despite their very diverse internal natures. It also provides a more sophisticated explanation from the persistence of the international system. However, it exaggerates the autonomy states enjoy from their domestic conditions, overstates the importance of structure and underestimates the potential for states to transform the international system. Neo-realism implies that, in its present form, the nationstate is a seemingly perennial fixture in the international system and that the aspects for alternative expressions of political community are limited (1996, p. 99). One of the concepts that Waltz feels supports his theory is the difference in social systems and natural systems is that within social systems there is structure, that there are external forces that influence decisions within the international system. "Waltz insists that social systems are very different from natural systems and require a different methodology to understand them. He sees social systems as possessing
27 a structure that constrains the behavior of the constituent units" (Buzan & Little, 2000, p. 39). Buzan and Little also find that, Waltz argues that there are only two possible ways that political systems can be structured: one structure is characterized by hierarchy and the other by anarchy. In a hierarchy, the units perform different functions, which means that they are structurally dependent upon each other. The mode of organization amongst the units reflects subordinate - superordinate relationships, with the overall distribution of power giving the resulting hierarchy a distinctive shape. In an anarchy, by contrast, the units relate to each other as independent agents, and so must be functionally autonomous in order to avoid structural dependency (2000, p. 40). Waltz has brought to the theory of neo-realism the scientific oversight that is needed to truly test theories, especially in the social sciences. What Waltz posits of the theory is that theories are different than laws, that laws identify the probable associations and theories show why those associations exist (Waltz, 1979). Discussion on Liberalism What Burchill finds is there are two variations of liberalism: "between the market view of human beings as consumers maximizing their utilities and the ethical view of humans striving to release their potential" (1996, p. 29). The end of the Cold War is what Fukuyama considers the "ideal state" where the political and economic forms cannot be improved on, that there cannot be any more progress in the development of 'underlying principals and institutions' of the international system (Fukuyama, 1992).