Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778 THURSDAY, AUGUST 30, 2012 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Professor David Redlawsk may be contacted at 319-400-1134, 732-932-9384, ext. 285, or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Visit http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. ADDING RYAN TO TICKET DOES LITTLE FOR ROMNEY IN NEW JERSEY finds more than half of likely voters not influenced by choice NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J Adding Wisconsin s U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan to his ticket has done little so far for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney among likely New Jersey voters, according to a new. While 21 percent say adding Ryan to the ticket makes them more likely to vote for Romney, another 20 percent say it makes them less likely to support the GOP candidate. A large majority, 58 percent, says it makes no difference in their vote decision. While most New Jerseyans knew relatively little about Ryan before Romney tapped him, only 18 percent say they have no opinion about the vice presidential nominee. Ryan does better than Romney (who is at 49 percent unfavorable) but his favorability rating is also negative, 38 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable. In comparison, Vice President Joe Biden is viewed positively by New Jersey likely voters, although he trails his boss, President Barack Obama. Fifty-four percent are favorable toward Obama and 47 percent have a favorable impression of Biden. Another 40 percent are unfavorable, and 18 percent have no opinion. The addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket certainly didn t hurt Romney in New Jersey, but it doesn t seem to have helped him much at this point, said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers- Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. As recently reported, Obama holds a 14-point lead even after the Ryan pick, and our question about Ryan confirms he has had little impact so far. Results are from a poll of 916 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Aug 23-25. Within this sample 710 respondents are identified as likely voters and are the focus of this release. The likely voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Ryan favorability reflects GOP gender gap Like Romney, Ryan, at this point, appears to suffer from the gender gap. Men are slightly more positive than negative, 45 percent to 42 percent, but women are significantly more negative, 32 percent 1
2 Cong. Paul Ryan Effect Aug 2012 favorable to 45 percent unfavorable. This gap is somewhat smaller than Romney s 19-point deficit among women, mostly because more women do not yet have an opinion about Ryan. The numbers show that the gender gap applies to both GOP candidates and reflects that women are much more likely to identify as Democrat than Republican, said Redlawsk. The GOP ticket is the first in U.S. history without a Protestant; Ryan is a Catholic and Romney, a Mormon. Catholics are 10 points more positive than negative about Ryan, 45 percent favorable to 35 percent unfavorable, while Romney is only six points up, 45 percent to 39 percent. Protestant and evangelical Christian voters are much more mixed: 41 percent of each group is favorable about Ryan while 40 percent feel unfavorable. Both numbers are better than Romney s scores with the same groups. Ryan may boost the GOP ticket with two age groups: likely voters aged 35 to 49 and those 65 and over. The former is very negative about Romney, 17 percentage points more unfavorable than favorable. But Ryan faces only a five-point deficit among these voters. Older voters are 7 points more positive than negative about Ryan. These same voters are evenly split over Romney. Ryan s ratings are slightly better than Romney s across the board, and are even better in some key groups, said Redlawsk. In particular, the GOP team could benefit if the more positive views of Ryan rub off on the top of the ticket. But it s too early to tell if it will make a long term difference. The Ryan non-effect While Ryan s favorability is higher than Romney s, there seems to be limited effect on likely voters support for the Republicans. Most say the addition of Ryan makes no difference, and just as many say they are less likely to vote for Romney now as say they are more likely. Picking Ryan certainly was not about getting Democratic votes, and few likely Democratic voters (5 percent) respond positively to the choice. However, the choice does help nail down the Republican base, as 41 percent of GOP backers say Ryan increases their support of the ticket. But independents, whom Romney must woo to have any chance in New Jersey, are not impressed. Nearly six-in-ten say Ryan s presence on the ticket has no effect on their vote. Only 21 percent say he makes them more likely to vote GOP and 22 percent say they are less likely. Ryan s better favorability ratings among Catholics and voters in his own age group (35 to 49) may have some effect with these groups. Catholics, by seven points, and voters 35 to 49 years old, by 11 points, are more likely to vote Republican with Ryan on the ticket. Voters 65 and over are about evenly split 19 percent are more likely but 18 percent are less likely to be influenced by Ryan s candidacy More than a quarter of likely voters with household incomes over $100,000 say the Ryan choice increases GOP support; 16 percent say Ryan s selection decreases their enthusiasm. Lower income voters feel the opposite: about a quarter say the choice makes them less likely to vote GOP. In the end, despite some better numbers in select demographic groups, we have to keep in mind
that a majority of groups says the Ryan pick has no effect, noted Redlawsk. Historically, few voters base their choices on the vice-presidential candidate, no matter how high profile. Ryan vs. Biden While Ryan polls somewhat better among likely New Jersey than his running mate, President Obama outpolls Vice President Joe Biden, 54 percent favorable to 47 percent favorable. At the same time, voters view Biden more positively than Ryan, reflecting the state s Democratic tilt. Independents are not really fans of either vice presidential candidate, with more negative than positive ratings. Ryan scores 37 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable, similar to his overall numbers. Biden, however, fares significantly worse with independents than his overall support: 40 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable. Within their respective parties, Biden does better than Ryan, 84 percent to 78 percent. Biden does best among likely voters under 35, while Ryan is strongest among those 65 and over; 55 percent of young voters feel positively about the incumbent (32 percent feel negative). Ryan does his best among senior citizens, 46 percent favorable to 39 percent unfavorable. At least in terms of favorability, Ryan does more for the GOP ticket than Biden does for the Democrats, despite Ryan s lower ratings, noted Redlawsk. This is a reflection on how poorly Romney is viewed in the Garden State and how much better voters feel about Obama personally. Still, one of Ryan s jobs may be to sell the Republican plan for Medicare to seniors. If so, he seems to start on a good footing with them, at least here in New Jersey. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES BEGIN ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3
Religion Born Cath Prot Jewish Other Again Favorable 45% 41% 34% 16% 40% Unfavorable 35% 41% 51% 65% 40% DK/No Opn 19% 18% 15% 20% 19% Unwgt N= 297 227 54 93 131 4 Cong. Paul Ryan Effect Aug 2012 Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of August 30, 2012 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey unless otherwise noted. NOTE: For crosstabs of questions not detailed here see: http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_08-29-12.pdf Q. I'd like to ask about some people and groups. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. First, [ROTATE]: Vice Pres Candidate Paul Ryan Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney Vice President Joe Biden Favorable 38% 47% 38% 54% Unfavorable 44% 40% 49% 39% No opn/dk 18% 13% 13% 7% Unwgt N= 710 710 707 710 President Barack Obama RYAN Party ID Ideology Education Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Cons HS or Less Some Coll Coll Work Favorable 8% 37% 78% 9% 34% 71% 34% 42% 41% 34% Unfavorable 73% 42% 6% 76% 43% 15% 44% 38% 43% 50% DK/No Opn 19% 20% 15% 15% 23% 13% 22% 20% 16% 16% Unwgt N= 236 276 190 158 353 189 157 178 211 163 Employment Race Age Full Time Part Time Retired Not Empl White Black 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 38% 36% 43% 31% 47% 9% 33% 38% 33% 46% Unfavorable 42% 47% 42% 47% 36% 73% 43% 43% 47% 39% DK/No Opn 20% 17% 15% 22% 17% 18% 24% 18% 19% 14% Unwgt N= 306 72 225 103 559 79 65 121 279 235 Income Gender Union Household <50K 50K- <100K 100K- <150K 150K+ Male Female Public Private No Union Favorable 34% 33% 43% 45% 45% 32% 26% 28% 41% Unfavorable 48% 49% 35% 41% 42% 45% 58% 61% 39% DK/No Opn 18% 18% 22% 14% 14% 23% 16% 11% 20% Unwgt N= 149 205 111 105 369 342 108 51 535
BIDEN Party ID Ideology Education Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Cons HS or Less Some Coll Coll Work Favorable 84% 40% 9% 79% 45% 21% 50% 44% 46% 49% Unfavorable 4% 45% 81% 10% 38% 71% 41% 40% 44% 34% DK/No Opn 12% 15% 11% 11% 17% 7% 9% 16% 11% 18% Unwgt N= 236 276 190 157 354 189 157 178 211 163 Employment Race Age Full Time Part Time Retired Not Empl White Black 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 44% 52% 47% 49% 38% 87% 55% 47% 45% 45% Unfavorable 45% 34% 42% 27% 49% 4% 32% 40% 40% 43% DK/No Opn 11% 14% 11% 24% 13% 9% 13% 13% 15% 12% Unwgt N= 305 72 226 103 560 79 65 121 278 236 Income Gender Union Household <50K 50K- <100K 100K- <150K 150K+ Male Female Public Private No Union Favorable 57% 50% 39% 46% 40% 53% 53% 52% 45% Unfavorable 30% 39% 45% 48% 49% 31% 31% 37% 42% DK/No Opn 13% 11% 16% 6% 11% 16% 16% 11% 13% Unwgt N= 149 206 110 105 370 341 108 51 535 Religion Cath Prot Jewish Other Born Again Favorable 36% 52% 51% 59% 52% Unfavorable 49% 36% 39% 28% 38% DK/No Opn 15% 12% 10% 13% 10% Unwgt N= 296 228 54 93 131 [NEW JERSEY RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK QUESTIONS RESERVED] Q. Thinking about the United States as a whole, would you say the country is currently going in the right direction or has it gone off on the wrong track? Going in the right direction 36% On the wrong track 57% DK (vol) 7% Unwgt N= 710 [NOTE: LIKELY VOTER AND PARTISAN IDENTIFICATION QUESTIONS WERE ASKED HERE BEFORE THE NEXT SET OF QUESTIONS] 5
Q. Which of the following issues is the MOST important issue facing America today? [READ; ROTATE OPTIONS] The economy and jobs 62% Federal budget deficit 10% Social Security and Medicare 8% Education 6% Health care 5% Homeland security and terrorism 3% Immigration 2% Medicaid and welfare reform 1% Something else (vol) 2% DK 2% Unwght N= 709 Q. And which presidential candidate, [ROTATE: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney,] would do a better job on [Insert response to most important issue ]? Most Important Issue The federal budget deficit Social Security and Medicare The economy including jobs Obama 46% 12% 73% Romney 42% 68% 14% Neither (vol) 6% 9% 6% Both (vol) 0% 5% 0% DK (vol) 5% 7% 7% Unwght N= 433 69 59 Q. Thinking about the presidential election, which ONE of the following candidate qualities matters MOST in making your decision of who to support for president? [READ; ROTATE OPTIONS] Strong leader 29% Shares my values 19% Cares about people like me 17% High moral character 11% Consistent in his beliefs 11% Can bring people together 10% DK (vol) 4% Unwght N= 709 6
Q. And, if the election for president were today, would you vote for [ROTATE ORDER: Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney], someone else, or would you not vote? Obama 51% Romney 37% Other (vol) 6% DK (vol) 5% Unwght N= 706 Q. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney chose Paul Ryan as his running mate. Knowing this, are you more likely to vote for Romney, less likely to vote for him, or does it have no effect on your vote? More likely 21% Less likely 20% No effect 58% DK (vol) 1% Unwght N= 708 Party ID Ideology Education Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Cons HS or less Some Coll Coll Work More likely 5% 21% 41% 7% 18% 38% 20% 20% 23% 20% Less likely 31% 22% 5% 30% 21% 10% 18% 19% 22% 21% No effect 63% 57% 54% 63% 60% 51% 61% 60% 54% 59% DK (vol) 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Unwght N= 234 276 190 158 351 188 157 176 211 162 Employment Race Age FT PT Retired Not Empl White Black 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ More likely 25% 18% 16% 19% 25% 5% 18% 29% 18% 19% Less likely 16% 33% 17% 30% 20% 30% 29% 18% 20% 18% No effect 59% 47% 67% 48% 55% 65% 54% 54% 61% 61% DK (vol) 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% Unwght N= 305 71 225 102 558 78 65 120 276 236 Income Gender Union Household <50K 50K- <100K 100K- <150K 150K+ Male Female Public Private No Union More likely 14% 19% 23% 31% 25% 16% 19% 9% 22% Less likely 23% 24% 17% 15% 18% 22% 23% 22% 19% No effect 61% 57% 60% 54% 56% 60% 59% 69% 58% DK (vol) 2% 0% 0% 0% % 1% 0% 0% 1% Unwgt N= 148 205 110 105 370 338 107 51 533 7
Religion Cath Prot Jewish Other Born Again More likely 23% 21% 24% 14% 20% Less likely 16% 19% 18% 35% 15% No effect 59% 60% 58% 51% 64% DK (vol) 1% % 0% 0% 1% Unwgt N= 296 227 54 92 130 Most Important Issue US Right Direction/Wrong Track The economy Federal budget Social Security, Right Wrong DK and Jobs deficit Medicare direction track (VOL) More likely 51% 19% 73% 89% 26% 67% Less likely 40% 61% 16% 5% 60% 15% No effect 5% 14% 2% 2% 9% 7% DK (vol) 4% 6% 9% 4% 5% 12% Unwght N= 431 69 59 241 417 46 Q Governor Christie was NOT selected as Mitt Romney s running mate. Does this make you pleased, disappointed, or does it not matter to you either way? Registered Voters Pleased 25% Disappointed 10% Doesn t matter 64% DK (vol) 1% Unwgt N= 915 August 23-25, 2012 The was conducted by telephone from August 23-25, 2012 with a scientifically selected random sample of 916 New Jersey registered voters. Within this sample 710 respondents were identified as likely voters by scoring responses to questions about interest in politics, in the presidential election, plans to vote, and vote history. Approximately 78 percent of registered voters were identified as likely voters by this measure. In 2008, 73 percent of registered New Jersey voters actually voted. Data are weighted to represent known parameters in the New Jersey registered voter population, using gender, age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity matching to 2010 US Census Bureau data. Data are further weighted to ensure geographical representation by county. All results are reported with these weighted data. This telephone poll included 735 landline respondents and 181 cell phone respondents, all acquired through random digit dialing. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for 710 likely voters is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey likely voters favored a particular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 46.5 and 53.5 percent (50 +/-3.5) had all New Jersey likely voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. 8
This was fielded by Braun Research Incorporated. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center focused on the study and teaching of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 710 New Jersey 35% Democrat 50% Male 14% 18-34 73% White 38% Independent 50% Female 22% 35-49 15% Black 27% Republican 36% 50-64 7% Hispanic 28% 65+ 4% Asian/Other/Multi 9