Telephone Survey of Mill Valley Voters Municipal Services Tax Measure Survey Report June 2016 Presented to: City Council of Mill Valley June 6, 2016
Methodology Live telephone survey of a representative sample of Mill Valley voters Conducted May 16-31, 2016 292 completed interviews Margin of error + 5.7 percentage points Included both landlines and cell phones Surveyed population demographically representative of Mill Valley voter population Split sample methodology employed to test tax rates of $225 and $300 146 interviews on each tax rate; Margin of error + 8.1 percentage points for each sample Where possible, results compared to 2005 telephone survey of Mill Valley voters (600 interviews, conducted Sept. 15-25, 2005) Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 2
City of Mill Valley The map below shows how voter precincts were used to group survey responses into geographic categories for analysis in this report. Hills Precincts (54% of voters) Flats Precincts (46% of voters) EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 3
Key Findings Support for a measure to continue the Municipal Services Tax at a new rate is above the two-thirds threshold needed for passage There is some variation in support for a measure based on tax rate, but support equalizes with education Voters value all of the services the MST funds, including road repair, vegetation management, and wildfire and flood prevention measures While a majority feel the City does a good job with vegetation management for wildfire and flood prevention, nearly two-thirds rate road maintenance as only fair or poor Providing information about the existing MST, and reminding voters that this is a continuation and not a new tax, help strengthen support for the measure Current awareness of the MST is low, but people place a high value on the services the MST funds, and they are supportive of a continuation of the tax to provide those services EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 4
Issue Environment
Direction of the City of Mill Valley Despite a drop from 2005, a majority of voters remain optimistic about the direction of Mill Valley. Right Direction (Don't Know) Wrong Track 16% 14% 24% 19% 70% 57% 2005 2016 Q3. Generally speaking, would you say things in Mill Valley are going in the right direction, or are things off on the wrong track? EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 6
Most Important Problem Facing Mill Valley Traffic is by far the top issue that comes to mind for voters. % Volunteered Response Traffic / congested / too much 59% Growth / population, housing, crowding 9% Not enough affordable housing / property prices / housing costs 7% Roads full of potholes / condition of roads 3% Wage inequality / financial imbalance / disappearing middle class 2% Overcrowded schools / keeping schools on the right track / school bonds 2% Inadequate oversight of development / city planning / permitting process 2% of living too high / taxes raised due to too much spending 2% Other 9% Don't know 4% Q4. What do you think is the most important problem facing Mill Valley today? (OPEN-ENDED QUESTION, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE) EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 7
City Ratings While voters have generally positive feelings about the City of Mill Valley, two-thirds rate the City s road maintenance and repair as only fair or poor. Excellent Good (Don t Know) Only Fair Poor Excellent/Good The job the City is doing overall 13% 57% 1% 25% 4% 70% The job the City is doing keeping wildfire risk low 22% 56% 7% 12% 3% 78% The job the City is doing controlling brush and vegetation growth 18% 52% 7% 17% 5% 70% The job the City is doing controlling flooding 15% 42% 11% 25% 8% 57% The job the City is doing repairing and maintaining streets and roads 4% 29% 38% 29% 33% Q12-16. Using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor, please rate the following areas related to the City of Mill Valley: EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 8
Perceived Funding Need Awareness of any need for increased funds for city services is fairly low. Great Need Some Need Little Need No Real Need (Don't Know) 5% 40% 21% 21% 13% Q5. Thinking about the services the City of Mill Valley provides, would you say that Mill Valley has a great need for more money, some need, little need, or no real need for more money for city services? EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 9
Municipal Service Tax (MST) Awareness Few have heard anything recently about the MST. (Don't Know) 3% Yes 14% No 83% Q6. Have you heard anything recently about the City of Mill Valley s Municipal Services Tax, sometimes called the MST? EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 10
Municipal Service Tax (MST) Awareness, Continued Specific information about the MST is limited, even among those who have heard something. n=41 % Volunteered Response That taxes were raised / taxes will be raised 16% It is up for renewal / it's been proposed / it will come up for a vote 12% It was going to be a parcel tax 6% Another municipal tax is being added / sewers / library 6% Adding new streets / Miller Ave. / to repave bad roads 4% It's too high 4% It will go for school busses 3% Money being spent to clear hillsides to prevent wildfires 3% The city is not educating residents about MST 2% A service tax will be added 2% There is a tax 2% We don't really need it 2% Other 8% No details 10% Don't know 20% Q7. What have you heard? (OPEN-ENDED QUESTION, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE ONLY) EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 11
Tax Attitudes Tax-aversion is low in Mill Valley, and most find city services worth increased taxes. Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree (Don t Know) Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree It is important to maintain the level of city services in Mill Valley, even if it means raising taxes. 42% 38% 3% 13% 5% Taxes are already high enough. I would vote against any tax increase regardless of how it might be used. 13% 17% 5% 30% 35% I trust the City of Mill Valley to properly manage tax dollars. 19% 52% 4% 16% 8% Q17-19. For each of the following statements please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 12
Municipal Services Tax Support
MST Initial Vote Initial support is above the two-thirds threshold for both tax rate levels tested. Shall the Mill Valley Municipal Services Tax be continued within the City of Mill Valley Community Facilities District Number 2016-1 to fund facilities and services, including maintenance, repair, and improvement of streets, fire suppression activities, and a limited cross-freeway school bus program, and shall the appropriations limit be established, raising approximately [Sample A: $1.4 million / Sample B: $1.8 million] annually over 10 years, as specified in Mill Valley City Council Resolution number 16-22? Yes 71% (Lean) 4% Yes 70% (Lean) 7% 67% No 16% (Und/DK) (Lean) 4% 12% 13% 63% No 16% (Lean) 5% 12% (Und/DK) 14% Yes No (Und/DK) Q8. If the election for this measure were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? Yes No (Und/DK) $1.4 million (n=146) $1.8 million (n=146) EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 14
Percent given in parentheses indicates share of the population. Initial Vote by Demographics Democrats and younger voters are more supportive of the measure than other groups. Overall (100%) % Yes 71% Male (45%) Female (55%) 71% 71% <50 (25%) 50-64 (35%) 65+ (39%) 67% 70% 77% M <65 (28%) F <65 (32%) M 65+ (17%) F 65+ (23%) 72% 74% 68% 66% Dem (64%) Rep (14%) NPP/Other (22%) 52% 68% 76% Q8. If the election for this measure were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 15
Percent given in parentheses indicates share of the population. Initial Vote by Demographics, Continued Voters who vote in every election are more supportive than those who only vote occasionally. Overall (100%) % Yes 71% Homeowner (76%) Not Homeowner (24%) 66% 72% Resident < 11 Years (28%) Resident 11-20 Years (20%) Resident 20+ Years (53%) 68% 75% 73% Hills Precincts (54%) Flats Precincts (46%) 66% 74% Voted 0-3/6 (42%) Voted 4-5/6 (27%) Voted 6/6 (31%) 67% 72% 74% Permanent Absentee Voter (70%) Non-PAV (30%) Q8. If the election for this measure were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? 67% 72% EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 16
Vote with Proposed Support for the measure drops after voters hear the tax rate, under both rate models. This measure would cost Mill Valley homeowners $225 per parcel per year. Knowing this, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? Yes Undecided No This measure would cost Mill Valley homeowners $300 per parcel per year. Knowing this, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? 16% 12% 30% 6% 16% 14% 28% 9% 71% 65% 70% 63% Initial With Proposed Initial With Proposed $225 (n=146) $300 (n=146) EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 17
Vote with Current Putting the tax rate into the context of the current rate brings support back up for both models, but more so for the $225 rate than the $300 rate. As you may know, the current Municipal Service Tax is $195 per year for most Mill Valley homeowners, and it has not changed in 10 years. Knowing this, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? Yes Undecided No 16% 12% 30% 6% 20% 16% 3% 14% 28% 9% 21% 9% 71% 65% 77% 70% 63% 70% Initial With Proposed With Current Initial With Proposed With Current $225 (n=146) $300 (n=146) EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 18
Vote with Proposed Explanation Support rises further when voters hear an explanation of the new cost to homeowners in both renewal measures. This measure is a modest but necessary adjustment to $225 to keep pace with inflation and ensure Mill Valley can continue existing levels of road repair and fire prevention services. Knowing this, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? This measure is an increase to $300 to allow Mill Valley to increase investment in road repair and improvements so we can have better roads sooner, while still maintaining essential fire prevention services. Knowing this, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? Yes Undecided No 16% 12% 30% 6% 20% 15% 16% 2% 3% 14% 28% 9% 21% 20% 9% 6% 71% 65% 77% 83% 70% 63% 70% 74% Initial With Proposed With Current Explanation Initial With Proposed With Current Explanation $225 (n=146) $300 (n=146) EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 19
Measure Elements There is strong support for all possible projects that could be funded with MST funds. Strongly Support Somewhat Support Total Support Fix potholes and repair streets 81% 16% 97% Improve the condition of most Mill Valley streets (SAMPLE B ONLY) 71% 24% 95% Maintain emergency vehicle access 78% 16% 94% Reduce wildfire risk by removing brush and vegetation 74% 20% 94% Repair cracked and deteriorating sidewalks, steps and paths 60% 34% 94% Create and maintain fire breaks 70% 22% 92% Q20-38. Now I d like to ask you some more questions about the Mill Valley Municipal Service Tax measure I read to you earlier. I m going to read you a list of things that the measure may include. After each one, please tell me if you support or oppose that particular component. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 20
Measure Elements, Continued There is strong support for all possible projects that could be funded with MST funds. Strongly Support Somewhat Support Total Support Repair and improve storm drains 63% 28% 91% Maintain emergency evacuation routes for residents 73% 18% 91% Maintain fire buffer zone on ridgetops surronding Mill Valley 69% 21% 90% Repair areas damaged by landslides 54% 33% 87% Reduce flood risk by removing brush and vegetation 53% 33% 86% Improve pedestrian and bicycle safety 58% 27% 85% Fund a limited cross-freeway school bus program 48% 29% 77% Q20-38. Now I d like to ask you some more questions about the Mill Valley Municipal Service Tax measure I read to you earlier. I m going to read you a list of things that the measure may include. After each one, please tell me if you support or oppose that particular component. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 21
Measure Details Voters are supportive of exemptions, oversight, and an expiration date. An annual adjustment is not strongly supported. Strongly Support Somewhat Support Total Support Include an exemption for income-qualified seniors 74% 16% 90% Require annual audits and citizen oversight 57% 25% 82% Expire after 10 years 38% 38% 76% Include an annual 3% adjustment to keep up with inflation 23% 35% 58% homeowners $225 per year (SAMPLE A ONLY) 41% 33% 74% homeowners $300 per year (SAMPLE B ONLY) 38% 31% 69% Q20-38. Now I d like to ask you some more questions about the Mill Valley Municipal Service Tax measure I read to you earlier. I m going to read you a list of things that the measure may include. After each one, please tell me if you support or oppose that particular component. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 22
Information Hearing about accountability provisions helps voters be more comfortable with the measure, and the risk of losing funding for wildfire prevention and road repair is motivating. Much More Likely to Support Somewhat More Likely to Support Total Support This measure will require that the revenue does exactly what is promised, with annual audits and a citizen oversight program. 48% 30% 78% If this measure does not pass and the existing Municipal Service Tax expires, we will lose critical funding for essential city services, meaning deteriorating roads and higher risk of catastrophic wildfires. 50% 27% 77% The risk of wildfires is constant in Mill Valley. This measure continues important funding for fire prevention, pedestrian evacuation, and emergency vehicle access in case of a wildfire. 48% 28% 76% Mill Valley has a backlog in pothole repair & road maintenance projects. With 3/4 of the funding dedicated to road repair, this measure allows the City to fix many streets & roads now, before they get worse & become more expensive to repair in the future. 46% 30% 76% Q39-46. Now I m going to read you some statements some people may say about the Mill Valley Municipal Service Tax measure. After each statement please tell me if the information makes you much more likely to support the measure, somewhat more likely to support the measure, or if it makes no difference. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 23
Information, Continued Local control is also a very compelling reason to support the MST renewal. Much More Likely to Support Somewhat More Likely to Support Total Support This measure ensures Mill Valley can continue to provide important local services, no matter what happens with the State budget or the economy, by providing a guaranteed source of locally controlled funding that cannot be taken by the State. 41% 34% 75% Traffic congestion is a major problem in Mill Valley. This measure will help by funding a limited school bus program to help reduce the number of cars going over Highway 101. 49% 23% 72% Our community has shown strong support & trust in Mill Valley for many years by continuing to support this important local funding source. This measure allows the City to continue successful, long-term progress to reduce wildfire risk & improve our roads. 32% 35% 67% With the better economy, now is the time to take care of things like road repairs and fire prevention, so when the economy inevitably goes down again we have quality infrastructure that will last. 34% 28% 62% Q39-46. Now I m going to read you some statements some people may say about the Mill Valley Municipal Service Tax measure. After each statement please tell me if the information makes you much more likely to support the measure, somewhat more likely to support the measure, or if it makes no difference. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 24
Vote After Information Support for both tax rates equalizes after hearing additional information about the measure and what it will fund. Yes Undecided No 16% 12% 30% 6% 20% 15% 13% 16% 2% 4% 3% 14% 28% 9% 21% 20% 15% 9% 6% 5% 71% 65% 77% 83% 83% 70% 63% 70% 74% 80% Initial Proposed Current Explanation After Info Initial Proposed Current Explanation After Info $225 (n=146) $300 (n=146) Q47. If this measure were on the ballot today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject the measure? EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 25
Vote After Negative Information Support drops slightly after hearing negative information, but remains above the two-thirds threshold needed for passage. Some people say we should not support the Municipal Service Tax measure. In addition to all the other tax measures on the ballot, there will also be an increase in local sewer rates, adding to our already sky-high cost of living. We should not be increasing taxes, the City just needs to spend its funds more efficiently. Yes Undecided No 16% 20% 15% 13% 20% 16% 30% 2% 4% 28% 21% 20% 15% 20% 12% 3% 5% 4% 14% 9% 6% 5% 6% 9% 71% 65% 77% 83% 83% 76% 70% 63% 70% 74% 80% 74% Initial Proposed Current Explanation After Info After Negative Initial Proposed Current Explanation After Info After Negative $225 (n=146) $300 (n=146) Q48. Sometimes people change their minds in a survey like this. If the Mill Valley Municipal Service Tax measure was on the ballot today, how would you vote? EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 26
Municipal Service Tax Vote Progression A renewal measure could be vulnerable if voters focus on the cost to homeowners. Support is highest when voters are exposed to more information about the current MST and renewal measure. % Total Yes ($225) % Total Yes ($300) 71% 70% 65% 63% 77% 70% 83% 83% 74% 80% 76% 74% Initial Vote Vote With Projected Vote With Current Vote With Explanation Vote After Information Vote After Negative Information EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST DRAFT 27
Conclusions/Recommendations Polling indicates the City can continue to consider a measure for the November 2016 ballot. The City should consider a tax rate that is responsive to community desires for improvement of road maintenance and repair while maintaining vegetation removal for fire and flood prevention. Continuing to reach out to the community to remind them about the value of the current MST will both reinforce the need for the measure and serve as a reminder that this is a continuation measure, not a new tax. Communications should also seek to educate the community about oversight provisions and protection of an important local funding source for the important city services Mill Valley residents value. EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 28
Contacts Sara LaBatt Sara@EMCresearch.com 510.550.8924 Andie Morhous Andie@EMCresearch.com 510.550.8808 EMC 16-6010 City of Mill Valley MST 29