YANBIAN RISING China s Strategic Design for NE Asia XXIX ISMOR Charles F. Hawkins Hawkins.CF@gmail.com
Asia Through a Chinese Lens 4 Chinese National Priorities Harmonious Development Counter Encirclement Near-sea defense Two-ocean navy Pushout areas Sovereignty Campaigns 2 1 Area of Emphasis for this Briefing Pushout Areas 1.Rason EDZ, North Korea 2.Burma (Myanmar) 3.Hambantota, Sri Lanka 4.Gwadar, Pakistan 3 U.S. Containment: Pressure from the Sea and Pressure from the Land 2
China Yanbian North Korea Russia Rason EDZ NORTH KOREA Hamgyong Bukto East Sea Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and Hamgyong Bukto Province are engaged in a transformation that will fundamentally alter the relationship between China and North Korea. Changes in Yanbian and Hamgyong Bukto will improve China's strategic flexibility and extend its influence over Northeast Asia in ways that are yet to be surmised or calculated. This report is based on years of direct observation during multiple visits, interviews and discussions with local officials, businessmen, academics, and citizens in Yanbian Prefecture. Observations, findings and 3 judgments expressed here are my own and not those of any U.S. government organization.
The China-North Korea Frontier 1,416 Kilometers China Jilin Province Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture Liaoning Province North Korea Sea of Japan (East Sea) 4
Two Centers of Gravity China: Stability on Sino-North Korean frontier North Korea: Regime survival/perpetuation Chinese soldiers at a remote border checkpoint North Korean guard 5
PLA in Northeast China Ground, Air, Amphibious Forces 6
Why Is Yanbian So Important? Jilin Province 27 million total 91% Han 4% Korean Yanbian Prefecture 2.3 million total 58% Han 39% Korean Railway across the Tumen Heilongjiang Province 36 million total 95% Han 1% Korean Liaoning Province 42 million total 94% Han 0.5% Korean Dilapidated NK guard post 7
Reasons for Chinese Intervention in North Korea Restore stability Provide humanitarian assistance Secure nuclear facilities Publicly stated by statelevel Chinese think tanks* Prevent or neutralize Russian intervention Secure important infrastructure interests Ports in Rason (Luoxin) EDZ economically and strategically important Islands, ports at mouth of Yalu River Power generation facilities on Yalu River Frontier commercial structures, industrial/mineral assets Communications hubs/transportation nets (within reach) Establish buffer zones on the frontier and present a fait accompli to ROK-US and thereby demand a seat at the unification table * See Bonnie Glaser, et. al., Keeping and Eye on an Unruly Neighbor, Center for Strategic and International Studies & U.S. Institute for Peace, Washington, D.C., January 2008; position also taken by Shanghai Institutes for International Studies in January 2009. 8
First to Fight: China s Historic Pattern of Conflict Rail crossing over the Tumen River near Tumen City Realpolitik as a first principle, not Confucian-Mencian good government accommodation Ming dynasty s grand strategy against the Mongols (1368-1644) About 70 conflict initiations by China Communist China s initiation of armed conflict during crises (1949-1985): 8 of 11 (73%) 10 of 13 (77%) if Spratlys and Tiananmen Square are counted for 1988 and 1989 High value, zero sum perception Territorial disputes Political-diplomatic disputes See: Cultural Realism by Alastair Iain Johnston 9
Constraints on Opportunism Opportunism will be narrowly focused Korean population in Yanbian makes North Hamgyong the center of gravity; East Sea access and ports at Rajin- Sonbong provide added incentive Infrastructure along Yalu will be protected but incursion limited Opportunism has its limits There must be instability in North Korea; refugee flow into Yanbian is the core of Chinese concerns No direct confrontation w/rok- US Three-way cooperation w/un mandate can save face Frozen Tumen near Sanhe What if opportunism meant the opportunity for economic development and integration instead of military adventurism? 10
How can the lights be turned on in North Korea? 11
2004 2009 Growth in Dandong spurs North Korean economic activity in Sinuiju 2009 12
Yanbian: What kind of future? Is Dandong a good model, or a chance event? 13
A new four-lane express highway has been completed from Changchun to Tumen City and terminates at Hunchun near the Chinese-Russian-North Korean border. New Hunwu Expressway (G12) from Changchun to Yanji 14
DPRK-PRC Electricity Trade http://www.nautilus.org/publications/essays/napsnet/reportselectricity Trade/DPRK_PRC_Trade_Aden New construction activity on the North Korean side of the Tumen River near Fengchuan and the Quanhe Bridge More North Korean construction activity on the Tumen near Quanhe Bridge 15
New railway trestle construction between Helong and Nanping Port border crossing. New railways and expressways in Jilin Province will open up Yanbian s interior and will facilitate more rapid shipment of goods, products and raw materials from both Jilin and Heilong-jiang provinces to foreign and Chinese markets via ports in Raison EDZ. They also serve as a MSR for military use. 16
China s Push Into Hamgyong Bukto Economic sustainability is key to stability Lower Yalu comparatively better developed; can be a model $3 billion deal in December 2011 gives China access to East Sea North Korean customs at Quanhe Bridge Economic integration with Hamgyong Bukto is a stability enabler that benefits China and North Korea However, Beijing must balance interests with Pyongyang; and maintain accommodation with Moscow This may be a zero-sum game, but China will portray it as win-win. 17
Russian ships at Rajin North Korean Antonov An-12 at Yanji The Prize Bottom three: Pictures of Russian-North Korean activity at Rajin port 18
Some Important OA Questions NK Refugees (into China) How many is too many? Rate of influx? Cumulative? Displaced persons (inside North Korea) What will cause North Koreans to leave their villages? What kind and size of organization is best suited to provide HA? Can the PLA do this? How? Instability (lack of effective governance) What are warnings and indicators? Are there MOEs (or MOIs)? What is the scope of the problem? Can it be compartmented by province, township? What resources are required to provide assistance? What are access issues and barriers to effectiveness? Are there historical analogs that can be examined for what worked and what didn t?
Discussion/Questions 20