Report 11 September 2017 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls (July 2017 data) Patrick Vinck Phuong Pham Anupah Makoond CONTENT Focus on security p3. SECURITY: The perception of safety is at its lowest level in two years p7. SECURITY: Crimes, armed groups, and poverty are leading causes of insecurity p12. SECURITY: Security actors lack presence on the ground p14. SECURITY: Gaining trust P17. SOCIAL COHESION: Renewed deterioration of relations within and across groups p24. KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS
About the poll This poll is the eleventh in a series of quarterly polls conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, the independent data analysis and report writing, in partnership with the Université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu et Université de Bunia. Results for this poll are based on 6,207 face to face interviews conducted in July 2017 with randomly selected adults across eastern DRC. Additional interviews were conducted in five priority zones: 1 South Irumu (n=499); 2 Kitchanga (n=802); 3 Ruzizi (n= 424); 4 Kalehe (n=445); 5 Mambasa (n=460). North Kivu South Kivu Ituri Territoire/town Sample Territoire/town Sample Territoire/town Sample City of Goma 309 City of Bukavu 325 City of Bunia 378 City of Beni 300 Fizi 216 Aru 262 City of Butembo 301 Idjwi 218 Djugu 224 Beni 227 Kabare 221 Irumu 228 Lubero 223 Kalehe 226 Mahagi 246 Masisi 215 Mwenga 224 Mambasa 229 Nyiragongo 222 Shabunda 222 City of Bunia 378 Rutshuru 216 City of Uvira 306 Aru 262 Walikale 218 Uvira 222 TOTAL 1,567 TOTAL 2,231 Walungu 229 TOTAL 2,409 TOTAL EASTERN DRC 6,207 (Error margin of ± 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level). Publications: Poll Report # 10, June 2017 (Data from March April 2017) Poll Report # 9, March 2017 (Data from Dec 2016) Poll Report # 8, November 2016 (Data from Sept 2016) Poll Report # 7, August 2016 (Data from June 2016) Poll Report #6, June 2016 (Data from March 2016) Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from Dec 2015) Poll Report #4, November 2015 (Data from Sept Oct 2015) Poll Report #3, August 2015 (Data from June July 2015) Poll Report #2, June 2015 (Data from March May 2015) Poll Report #1, March 2015 (Data from Dec 2014) Baseline, May 2014 (Data from Dec 2013) For more information, visit www.peacebuildingdata.org/drc or contact info@peacebuilding.org In collaboration with With support from Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program The information provided and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners
SECURITY: The perception of safety is at its lowest level in two years Monitoring people s perception of security and security actors has been a core component of the peacebuilding and reconstruction polls since the inception of the project. This 11 th report provides a detailed reporting on trends and current perceptions related to security. As of July 2017, the sense of security among respondents in eastern DRC is at its lowest since June 2015, both considering the sense of security in daily activities and the sense of security walking alone at night. Overall, 45% of respondents reported feeling safe or very safe walking at night in their neighbourhood or village in July 2017. Results at the provincial level show that the sense of security is lowest in North Kivu, where it has hit an all time low since the beginning of the polls (52% safe very safe in their daily activities; 29% walking alone at night). In Ituri, the perception of safety has steadily improved over time. In July 2015, 72% of respondents felt safe or very safe walking alone at night, compared to 62% in June 2015. In South Kivu, the perception of safety has been relatively table over time when aggregated at the provincial level. Figure 1: Perception of safety over time, Eastern DRC (% safe very safe) 90% IT 70% 72% 76% 76% 75% 69% 71% 73% 71% SK 68% TOTAL EAST DRC PERCEPTION OF SAFETY DAILY ACTIVITIES 52% NK 72% IT 46% 50% 53% 54% 52% 49% 53% 55% 45% TOTAL EAST DRC 44% SK PERCEPTION OF SAFETY WALKING ALONE AT NIGHT 29% NK Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mars. 2017 Jul. 2017 Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 3
Disaggregating further at the level of territoires shows important variations within provinces. In the territoire of Lubero in North Kivu, only 27% of the population reported feeling safe or very safe whilst conducting their daily activities. This figure represents a 35% drop since December 2016. Other territoires and cities in the Grand Nord of North Kivu displayed a similar downward trend over the past year, notably in Butembo (46% reporting feeling safe or very safe whilst conducting daily activities in July 2017) and Beni territoire (51%). In Beni Town, the trend in perception of safety in daily activities has been stable but consistently low ranging from 28% to 39% over the past year. In the remaining territoires of North Kivu, the so called Petit Nord, the trend has been somewhat stable in Rutshuru, where less than half the respondents report feeling safe or very safe in their daily activities (47%). The perception of safety was also stable in Walikale (88%) and Nyiragongo (73%). In Goma and Masisi, the perception of safety during the day has traditionally been both relatively high and stable over time with over 80% of the population reporting feeling safe whilst conducting daily activities since june 2015. In south Kivu, the territoires of Fizi, Kabare and Kalehe, as well as the city of Bukavu have been the most impacted by the downward trend in people s perception of security In Ituri, the perception of safety has improved in all locations, except considering the perception of safety walking alone at night in the provincial capital of Bunia: only 25% of respondents felt safe walking at night in July 2017, compared to 43% in March 2017. it is possible that as Bunia becomes increasingly urbanized, criminal activity rather than politically or ideologically motivated violence will affect people s perception of safety. Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 4
Figure 2: Perception of safety in daily activities by territoire (% safe very safe) Aru 85% Mahagi 97% Djugu 92% Mambasa 94% Irumu 78% Ville de Bunia 92% Lubero 27% Beni 51% Ville de Beni 34% Ville de Butembo 46% Shabunda 30% Walikale 88% Kalehe 61% Mwenga 72% Masisi 71% Uvira 66% Rutshuru 47% Nyiragongo 73% Ville de Goma Idjwi 71% 97% Kabare Ville de Bukavu 75% 77% Walungu 97% Uvira Ville 58% Fizi 57% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 5
Figure 3: Perception of safety walking alone at night by territoire (% safe very safe) Aru 68% Mahagi 85% Djugu 82% Mambasa 73% Irumu 40% Ville de Bunia 25% Beni 35% Ville de Beni 16% Lubero 16% Ville de Butembo 19% Shabunda 8% Walikale 81% Kalehe 16% Mwenga 39% Masisi 36% Uvira 43% Rutshuru 24% Kabare 48% Walungu 76% Uvira Ville 43% Nyiragongo 57% Ville de Goma 8% Idjwi 63% Ville de Bukavu 34% Fizi 44% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 6
SECURITY: Crimes, the presence of armed groups, and poverty are the leading causes of insecurity Poll 11 explored what, if any, respondents perceive as the causes of insecurity. The question was open ended (no responses suggested) and multiple responses were recorded. While respondents offered a range of answers, the five most common answers were related to the presence of bandits (63%) and the fear of being robbed (43%), the presence of armed groups (38%) and ongoing armed conflicts (29%) as well as poverty and poor economic conditions (45%). The analysis at the provincial level identifies roughly the same main sources of insecurity but their relative importance varies. The presence of bandits was the most frequently cited cause of insecurity across provinces (61% in North Kivu, 71% in South Kivu) except in Ituri where it was the second most cited causes of insecurity (56%) behind the fear of being robbed (69%). In North Kivu, a larger percentage of respondents mentioned the presence of armed groups (54%) and ongoing armed conflict (44%), compared to respondents in South Kivu (34% and 21%, respectively), and Ituri (16% and 17%, respectively.) In South Kivu, poverty and poor economic conditions were more frequently mentioned than elsewhere (71% v. 35% in North Kivu, and 27% in Ituri). This is not to say that poverty is not an issue in these other provinces, but rather suggests that other sources of insecurity are perceived as more significant. Figure 4: Perceived leading causes of insecurity by province (top 5 causes, % of respondents) 63% Poverty / economic conditions 45% EASTERN DRC 43% Presence of armed groups 38% Ongoing armed conflict 29% NORTH KIVU SOUTH KIVU ITURI 61% 71% 69% Presence of armed groups 54% Poverty / economic conditions 71% 56% Ongoing armed conflict 44% 50% Poverty / economic conditions 27% Poverty / economic conditions 35% Presence of armed groups 34% Ongoing armed conflict 17% Road barriers 26% Ongoing armed conflict 21% Presence of armed groups 16% Data from July 2017 The causes of insecurity vary more importantly when looking at territoires. Generally, respondents in urban areas identify criminality including the presence of bandits and the fear of being robbed more frequently than respondents in rural areas. The presence of armed groups was most frequently mentioned as a leading cause of insecurity in the town of Beni and the territoires of Beni and Lubero in North Kivu, and the terrioire of Shabunda in South Kivu. Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 7
Figure 5: Leading causes of insecurity by territoire (top 2 responses, % of respondents) NORTH KIVU SOUTH KIVU ITURI Town of Goma Town of Bukavu Town of Bunia Poverty / economy 96% 100% 45% 84% 67% Town of Beni Fizi Aru Presence of armed groups 80% 60% 100% 64% Poverty / economy 58% 56% Town of Butembo Idjwi Djugu 100% Poverty / economy 99% 70% Poverty / economy 43% 75% 60% Beni Kabare Irumu Presence of armed groups Poverty / economy 81% Presence of armed groups 83% 56% 63% 46% Lubero Kalehe Mahagi Presence of armed groups 61% 86% 57% 60% 70% 49% Masisi Mwenga Mambasa 66% 59% Presence of armed groups 49% 55% 45% Nyiragongo Shabunda 62% 100% 38% Poverty / economy 74% Rutshuru Uvira Presence of armed groups 70% Poverty / economy 63% 55% 61% Walikale Town of Uvira Armed conflicts 58% 85% Poverty / economy 31% 50% Walungu 100% Poverty / economy 87% Data from July 2017 Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 8
The above results discuss respondents perceived causes of insecurity, considering multiple answers. Respondents, however, were also asked to specify the single most important cause of insecurity. Because of its relevance for peacekeeping and peacebuilding, we focus on responses related to the presence of armed groups and and ongoing armed conflicts. The presence of armed groups was identified by 16% of respondents. The presence of armed groups combined with ongoing armed conflicts was mentioned by a total of 27% of respondents. Figure 6: Change over time in respondents identifying armed groups or ongoing armed conflict as their single main cause of insecurity (% of respondents) June 2016 July 2017 43% 17% 10% 13% 16% 27% North Kivu South Kivu Ituri Eastern DRC Town of Goma Town of Beni Town of Butembo Beni Lubero Masisi Nyiragongo Rutshuru Walikale Town of Bukavu Fizi Idjwi Kabare Kalehe Mwenga Shabunda Uvira Ville d'uvira Walungu Town of Bunia Aru Djugu Irumu Mahagi Mambasa 4% 11% 36% 1% 0% 11% 14% 31% 13% 11% 8% 9% 0% 0% 6% 2% 1% 20% 37% 49% 38% 10% 26% 34% 29% 17% 21% 44% 25% 24% 19% 5% 11% 9% 1% 0% 3% 7% 28% 4% 22% 20% 54% 48% 68% 50% 51% 71% North Kivu South Kivu Ituri Data from July 2017 Over time, the percentage of respondents identifying the presence of armed group or ongoing armed conflicts as the main cause of insecurity as grown from 16% in June 2016 to 27% in July 2017. The increase was most important in north Kivu ( to 43%). In this province, most territoires saw an increase in the percentage of respondents identifying the presence of armed groups or ongoing armed conflicts as the main cause of insecurity. The increase was most important in Lubero (13% to 68%), Rutshuru (9% to 37%), the town of Beni (36% to 54%), and the terriorites of Beni (31% to 48%) and Masisi (11% to 28%). In South Kivu, percentage of respondents identifying the presence of armed groups or ongoing armed conflicts as the main cause of insecurity increased most importantly in Shabunda (71% in July 2017 v. 44% in June 2016. In Ituri, the percentage of respondents identifying the presence of armed groups or ongoing armed conflicts as the main cause of insecurity was stable in all territoires and was highest in Irumu (51% in July 2017). Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 9
Figure 7: Armed groups and ongoing armed conflict as the main source of insecurity (% of respondents) Aru 0% Mahagi Djugu 7% Mambasa 20% Irumu 51% Ville de Bunia 9% Beni 48% Ville de Beni 54% Lubero 68% Ville de Butembo 14% Shabunda 71% Walikale 38% Mwenga 21% Masisi 28% Kalehe 29% Kabare 2% Walungu 5% Uvira 24% Rutshuru 37% Nyiragongo 20% Ville de Goma 11% Idjwi 0% Ville de Bukavu 0% Uvira Ville Fizi 26% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 10
Figure 8: Poverty and economic conditions as the main source of insecurity (% of respondents) Aru 7% Mahagi 13% Djugu 5% Mambasa Irumu 0% Ville de Bunia 1% Lubero 6% Ville de Butembo Ville de Beni 9% Beni 19% Shabunda 8% Walikale 9% Kalehe 8% Mwenga 11% Masisi 7% Rutshuru 1% 10% Idjwi 39% Kabare 31% Ville de Bukavu 25% Walungu Uvira 15% Nyiragongo 9% Ville de Goma 28% Uvira Ville 10% Fizi 7% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 11
SECURITY ACTORS: Lack of visibility The sense of security may not reflect the real level of risk. Individuals may feel unsafe if they lack the physical presence of security actors. The survey assessed how often respondents see the police FARDC and MONUSCO in their village or neighbourhood. The Congolese national police are the most frequently seen actors, with 37% seeing police daily and 24% seeing police at least once a week. In comparison, 29% see the FARDC daily and just 7% see MONUSCO forces daily. This may reflect the fact that MONUSCO is not, nor is it intended to be, a primary security provider in the country and is not present throughout eastern Congo. Indeed, as many as 56% never see MONUSCO, compared to 27% who never see FARDC and 17% who never see the police. Figure 9: Frequency of presence of security actors in village / neighborhood (% of respondents) Daily 37% Police (East DRC) 45% (NK) Never 17% once / week 24% 10% 21% < once / week 22% Daily 29% once / week 20% FARDC (East DRC) 33% (NK) 17% Never 27% < once / week 24% once / week 13% < once / week 24% Daily 7% MONUSCO (East DRC) 11% (NK) 37% Never 56% 24% 22% 28% 33% 32% 20% 30% 23% 10% 5% 22% (SK) 26% 21% (SK) 27% 25% (SK) 32% 25% 23% 24% (IT) 47% (IT) (IT) 81% 19% 16% 13% 7% 5% 7% Data from July 2017 Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 12
Figure 10: Presence of actors (% reporting never seeing actor) by territoire Presence of police (% never) Presence of FARDC (% never) Presence of MONUSCO (% never) 10% 41% 93% 27% 72% 84% 22% 40% 86% 16% 50% 41% 51% 39% 60% 78% 10% 8% 38% 13% 22% 19% 21% 40% 53% 57% 33% 1% 5% 23% 20% 3% 52% 25% 6% 16% 8% 21% 48% 56% 25% 2% 28% 25% 26% 11% 9% 35% 5% 21% 57% 23% 31% 9% 84% 62% 88% 73% 70% 57% 35% 61% 39% 17% 36% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 13
SECURITY: Gaining trust Since the inception of the project, the polling instruments included questions to measure trust in selected actors to ensure security: the Congolese national police (Police Nationale Congolaise PNC), the Congolese army (Forces Armees de la Republique Democratique du Congo FARDC) and the United Nations peacekeeping mission (Mission de l'organisation des Nations Unies pour la Stabilisation en République Démocratique du Congo MONUSCO). As of July 2017, 54% of respondents trusted the police to ensure security, compared to 50% trusting the FARDC and 23% trusting MONUSCO. Results show that the percentage of respondents trusting these actors has decreased between June 2015 and December 2016. More recently, however, the percentage of respondents trusting security actors has increased for all three actors in eastern DRC, especially considering the police and the FARDC. At the provincial level, differences exist, with trust in the FARDC being least frequent in North Kivu, and trust in MONUSCO and the Police being least frequent in South Kivu. Figure 11: Trust in actors to ensure security (% trusting) 51% 54% 54% 51% TRUST TO ENSURE SECURITY POLICE 48% 47% 33% 42% 60% IT 54% TOTAL EAST DRC 53% NK 51% SK 49% 49% 50% 51% 49% 42% 42% 45% 54% SK 51% IT 50% TOTAL EAST DRC 45% NK TRUST TO ENSURE SECURITY FARDC 26% 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% TRUST TO ENSURE SECURITY MONUSCO 23% 25% NK 24% IT 23% TOTAL EAST DRC 21% SK Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mars. 2017 Jul. 2017 Data from July 2017 Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 14
At the territoire level, the trend toward more trust in security is consistent across the East. However, three territoires show a decrease in the percentage of people trusting the FARDC: Masisi, Rutshuru and Walikale. In Masisi, only 49% of the population responded that they trust the FARDC to ensure security, compared to 63% in December 2017. It should be noted however, that in the same time period, there has been a significant increase in the percentage of people reporting that they trust the police to ensure security in their neighbourhood. This trend is not observed in Rutshuru and Walikale, where trust in both the police and the FARDC has dropped between March 2017 and July 2017 (Rutshuru : 67% to 39% for the police ; 86% to 54% for FARDC ; Walikale : 65 % to 43% for the Police ; 63% to 52% for the FARDC). Trust and the presence of security actors An analysis of the population s trust in security actors based on the frequency at which they encounter them confirms the hypothesis that people are more likely to trust the security actor when they see them more frequently. With regards to MONUSCO for example, among the people who reported seeing MONUSCO on a daily basis, 58% trust the force to ensure security compared to 14% among those who reported never seeing MONUSCO. This trend also holds true for other security actors as shown in the graph below. Figure 12: Trust to ensure security and physical presence % Trusting actor for security in relation to frequency of presence Never < once / week once / week Daily 14% 28% 35% 58% 26% 75% 74% 59% 53% 44% 42% 20% MONUSCO FARDC POLICE Data from July 2017 Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 15
Figure 13: Trust in actors to ensure security (% trusting) by territoire Trust the Police for security (% yes) Trust the FARDC for security (% yes) Trust MONUSCO for security (% yes) 80% 52% 17% 57% 38% 33% 55% 55% 24% 72% 37% 59% 63% 62% 43% 23% 19% 29% 28% 64% 60% 21% 46% 54% 71% 8% 36% 47% 29% 43% 85% 39% 52% 49% 54% 32% 34% 47% 40% 54% 66% 45% 31% 74% 39% 40% 46% 76% 38% 37% 52% 49% 25% 70% 53% 51% 50% 8% 19% 5% 6% 11% 28% 33% 36% 57% 66% 52% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 16
SOCIAL COHESION: Renewed deterioration of relations within and across groups Recent polls documented a deteriorating trend in the perception of relations within and across ethnic groups. The beginning of 2017 showed improvement as the percentage of respondents ranking positively their relation within and across group increased in all three provinces. Poll 11, however, suggest that the improvement was only temporary, with a renewed downward trend, especially considering relations across groups. As of July 2017, 73% of respondents ranked positively their relationship within ethnic group compared to ranking positively their relationship across groups. Relationships are perceived most negatively in North Kivu. Figure 14: Relations within and across ethnic groups over time by province (% good very good relations) 81% 82% 82% 80% 77% 71% 71% 75% 84% IT 73% TOTAL EAST DRC 72% NK 66% SK RELATIONS WITHIN ETHNIC GROUP 81% IT 74% 77% 77% 76% RELATIONS ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS 73% 64% 59% 70% TOTAL EAST DRC 60% SK 58% NK Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mars. 2017 Jul. 2017 Focusing on relations across groups, less than half the respondents ranked positively their relationships across groups in 5 territoire, 4 of which are located in North Kivu: Butembo (44%), Beni (43%), Lubero (42%), and Walikale (43%) in North Kivu, and Shabunda (28%) in South Kivu. Only two territoires had less than 50% ranking positively their relationship within group: Walikale (48%) and Shabunda (42%). Looking at trends over time suggest contrasting tendencies, with continued downward trends in the town and territoire of Beni and Masisi in North Kivu Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 17
Figure 15: Perception of relations within ethnic group (% good very good) Aru 92% Mahagi 87% Djugu 70% Mambasa 86% Irum u 93% Ville de Bunia 97% Lube ro 51% Be ni 69% Ville de Beni 63% Ville de Butembo 52% Walikale 90% Masisi 89% Ruts huru 78% Nyiragongo 82% Kalehe 77% Ville de Goma 78% Idjw i 74% Kaba re 60% Ville de Bukavu 48% Shabun da 42% Mwenga 73% Uvira 69% Walungu 69% Uvira Ville 74% Fi zi 76% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 18
Figure 16: Perception of relations across ethnic group (% good very good) Aru 88% Mahagi 87% Djugu 66% Mambasa 86% Irumu 91% Ville de Bunia 97% Lubero 42% Beni 43% Ville de Beni 57% Ville de Butembo 44% Shabunda 28% Walikale 90% Kalehe 66% Mwenga Masisi 70% Uvira 63% Rutshuru 68% Nyiragongo 71% Ville de Goma Idjwi 77% 74% Kabare 55% Ville de Bukavu Walungu 43% 66% Uvira Ville 78% Fizi 69% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 19
Figure 17: Relations within and across ethnic groups over time by territoire North Kivu (% good very good relations) 79% 88% 92% 91% 94% 91% 98% 85% Town of Goma 77% 83% 82% 76% 76% 68% 70% 74% 69% Town of Beni 57% 85% 83% 54% 74% 72% Butembo 44% 78% 54% 53% Beni 43% 73% 71% 47% 32% Lubero 42% 89% 75% 79% 81% Masisi 70% 81% 92% 87% Nyiragongo 71% 36% 69% 77% 62% 68% Rutshuru 68% 21% Walikale 90% 82% 78% 61% 70% Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mars. 2017 Jul. 2017 Figure 18: Relations within and across ethnic groups over time by territoire South Kivu (% good very good relations) 83% 85% 73% 83% 54% 60% 53% 72% Town of Bukavu 43% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 20
63% 73% 76% Fizi 69% 75% 79% 99% 98% Idjwi 74% 69% 85% 90% 50% 79% Kabare 55% 70% 70% 57% 72% Kalehe 66% 80% 70% 63% 69% Mwenga 39% 38% 48% 38% Shabunda 28% 47% 73% 74% 70% Uvira 63% 68% 70% 77% 83% 77% 67% 71% 74% Town of Uvira 78% 85% 79% 71% 82% Walungu 66% Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mars. 2017 Jul. 2017 Figure 19: Relations within and across ethnic groups over time by territoire Ituri (% good very good relations) 94% 90% 94% 91% 92% 97% 94% 97% Town of Bunia 97% Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 21
84% 87% 91% 86% Aru 88% 69% 72% 60% 70% Djugu 66% 97% 93% 96% 92% 89% 93% 96% 93% Irumu 91% 85% 81% 91% 89% Mahagi 87% 87% 78% 77% 75% Mambasa 86% Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mars. 2017 Jul. 2017 Poll 11 also explored the frequency of contacts across ethnic groups. Overall, nearly half the respondents (46%) have daily contacts with members of other ethnic groups. However, one in three respondents have only occasional contacts: 21% said less than once a week, and 14% said never. Men tended to report more frequent contacts than women (69% at least once a week v. 59%). It is in North Kivu that contacts across groups are least frequent, with 56% indicating contact at least once a week or daily, compared to 72% in South Kivu, and in Ituri. Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 22
Figure 20: Frequency of contacts with other ethnic groups No response 1% Never 14% 42% 2% 19% Women 20% Daily 46% East DRC < once / week 21% 1% 17% 9% once / week 49% Men 20% 21% 2% 15% 0% 9% 2% 17% 38% NK 26% 53% SK 48% IT 16% 19% 17% The poll results suggest that the frequency of interaction across groups is associated with perception of relations. Among respondents who have daily interactions with individuals from another ethnic groups, 73% judge positively their relations across groups, compared to 64% for those with weekly interactions, 54% for those with fewer interactions than once a week, and 56% among respondents with no interaction. This suggest that frequent interaction may be necessary to build positive relationships. Figure 21: Perception of relations across groups in association with frequency of contact 56% 54% 64% 73% Never < once / week once / week Daily Relations across groups (% good very good) Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 23
KEY GLOBAL INDICATOR (July 2017) The following indicators are monitored in all the polls. Provincial averages may mask significant differences between territories detailed results by territories are available on the www.peacebuildingdata.org site. Aggregate statistics are based on the latest poll available in each territory. SENSE OF SECURITY (% safe very safe) Latest data (Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Daily activities Walking alone at night Daily activities Walking alone at night 52% 29% 71% 44% 90% 72% 68% 45% 67% 70% 72% 76% 76% 75% 69% 71% 73% 44% 46% 51% 53% 54% 52% 49% 53% 55% 68% 45% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017 Jul. 2017 PERCEPTION OF SECURITY ACTORS (% trust for security) Latest data (Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Police FARDC MONUSCO 60% 53% 51% 54% 51% 54% 45% 50% 25% 21% 24% 23% Police FARDC MONUSCO 61% 51% 54% 54% 51% 54% 48% 47% 42% 42% 53% 49% 49% 50% 51% 49% 50% 42% 45% 33% 25% 26% 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% 23% 23% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017 Jul. 2017 Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 24
PERCEPTION OF RELATIONS WITHIN AND ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS (% good very good) Latest data (Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Relations with your ethnic group Relations with your ethnic group Relations with other ethnic groups Relations with other ethnic groups 72% 66% 58% 60% 84% 81% 73% 89% 79% 81% 82% 82% 80% 77% 74% 77% 77% 76% 73% 71% 71% 75% 73% 64% 59% 70% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017 Jul. 2017 TRUST IN JUSTICE (% little none) Latest data (Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Civilian justice system Military justice system Civilian justice system Military justice system 67% 70% 73% 70% 59% 60% 67% 67% 69% 75% 75% 75% 75% 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 67% 71% 71% 71% 71% 73% 73% 67% 67% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Mar. 2016 Jun. 2016 Sep. 2016 Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017 Jul. 2017 Eastern DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll # 11 September 2017 25