-.. University _ ~br --SUrvey Research Center of California;.e~kel~YI C~11t6~nfa 94720 THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SiNCE 1946 San Francisco Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street San Francisco 94104 392-5766 Mervin D. Fle!d. Director Robert Heyer, Editor los Angeles Office 3142 Wilshire Boulevard Los Angeles 90005 385 5259 COPYRIGHT 1970 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Re1ease #660 For release TUESDAY, MAY 19, 1970 UNRUH'S MARGIN OVER YORTY WIDENS WHILE REAGAN'S LEAD OVER UNRUH NARROWS by Mervin D. Field IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents of report are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time Assemblyman Jess Unruh's low keyed campaign for the Democratic Gubernatorial nomination, currently is gaining about two and one-half times as much voter support as Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty's. In a statewide voter preference survey undertaken between May 4 and 11 th, the California Poll found that Unruh is the choice of about two out of three Democrats who express a choice at this time. Yorty gets most of the remaining vote, and e,ight other candidates whose names will appear on the primary ballot aggregate about 7% of the total. The distribution of vote preferences registered by this representative statewide sample of Democrats shows: Unruh 50% Yorty 18 Other candidates 7 No preference or don't know 25 Unruh's present five to two margin over Yorty represents a significant gain for the veteran state legislator compared to the five to three ratio he had as shown in last February's California Poll measurement on th is race. What is unusual about this current measure of candidate preference is the fact that such a high proportion -- 25% of the total -- could not make a choi ce when shown a Iist of the ten candjdates_~ whose names will appear on the June 2 ballot. At this stage of a campaign for governor, the size of the IIdon't know ll group is typically only about half of that shown by this survey. One reason for the relatively low level of voter involvement may be that the Unruh-Yorty race had not generated any noticeable heat at the time the survey was taken. Explosive news on the The California Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium for promollng public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all political panies and candidates. It'MQWis to report public opinion accurately and obiecti~ely. financial support lor the Poll comes trom newspapers and tele~ision stallons that ha~e e!c1usi~e rights within the city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and queslloning procedures in obtaining the data reported~1~ht/e_l ases. Representative samples of adults are Interviewed at periodic intervals on election issues and other socially important questions of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexe~~'lfllltparts of the state, from different Sized communities. and of all age. economic, political and occupation groups are included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1.000 or morit resplirnjents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of not less than 600 interviews.
,,-, - - - - -.. - - - - - - Tbe California Poll - page 2 national and international fronts occasioned by the widening war in Indo-China and the turmoil on the nation' college campuses before and after the killings of the Kent State students have relegated most aspects of state politics to the background. Another reason for apathy among Democratic voters may be the widespread feeling that regardless of whom the Democrats nominate, he is not likely to fare too well against incumbent Ronald Reagan. While Reagan still holds a commanding position over Unruh and other possible Democratic rivals his lead has eroded somewhat. For the first time since last year, the proportion of voters who say they would vote for Reagan has dropped below 50%. His margin over Unruh in a trial heat simulation has dropped from 20 points registered in February of this year to 13 points at this time. Following is a comparison of the Reagan-Unruh pairings starti ng from last November. May February November 1970 1970 1969 Reagan 49% 56% 56% Unruh 36 36 34 Other 4 Don't know 11 8 10 Reagan's margin over Yorty is about double his lead over Unruh. May February 1970 1970 Reagan 49% Yorty 22 26 Others 10 Don't know 19 15 (MORE)
-------.. - - - - - - - The California Poll - page 2 j The American Independent Party (the party started by Alabama's George Wallace during the 1968 campaign) and the Peace and Freedom Party will field gubernatorial candidates in the. November elections. Sam Yorty has been a controversial political figure since he first ran for office 35 years ago. During that period he has been a candidate in races for State Assembly, U.S. Congress, U.S. Senate, Cal ifornia Governor, and los Angeles Mayor. He has Il won some and lost some" but last year he scored one of his biggest victories in winning re-election as Los Angeles Mayor. In the April 1969 Los Angeles Mayoralty primary election he ran a poor second when three out of four voters spurned him to vote for other candidates. However, in the subsequent run-off against los Angeles City Councilman Thomas Bradley, he was able to turn the tide and win another four year term. Yorty was a candidate for Governor in the 1966 Democratic Gubernatorial campaign and in a late rush was able to poll 38% of the primary vote. While it was not enough to win it highlighted voter disenchantment wi th the then Democratic Governor Pat Brown who was seeking a third term. The final pre-primary Cal ifornia Poll on the Governor's race will be made a few days before the June 2 election and will be reported exclusively in this area by (name of subscriber). -30 COPYRIGHT 1970 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.
- r - - - - - THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SINCE 1946 san Francisco Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street San Francisco 94104 392-5766 Mervin D. Field, Director Robert Heyer, Editor LoS Angeles Office 3142 Wilshire Boulevard Los AngBles 90005 3855259 INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY Dates of interviewing: Population covered by th is survey: Number of interviews: Sample design: Wording of the questions on which this report is based: May 4 -May 11, 1970 Representative cross-section of California adult public. In the base sample 1058 adults 21 and over were interviewed. The figures in this report are based on a total of 802 adults who said they were registered voters: 457 Democrats, 315 Republicans, and 30 affiliated with another party or in the IIded ined to state" category. The survey interviews are selected in accordance with a probabil ity sample design which provides for random (i.e., non-judgemental) selection of households. Assignments in a particular place are done in ci usters with randomly drawn addresses as starting points for each cl uster of interviews. For this survey, 260 ci usters throughout the state were sel ected. Each ci uster consisted of seven consecutive households, beginning with the designated starting household. Interviewers made up to three calls on every Iisted address in an attempt to complete an interview. One adult per household was selected for interview on a systematic basis to provide a balance by sex and age. Interviewing was conducted during late afternoon and evening on weekdays and all day on the week-end. The sampl e is designed to be sel f-weighted on all variables of interest, such as area of state, degree of urbanization, political party affiliation, and socio-economic status. Whenever occasional imbalances in key variables occur in the sample due to sampling variability or other factors, corrective weights are applied during the data processing stage to assure that the survey findings reflect correct weighting of respondents. In addition to questions about voter registration status and other democratic characteristics, there were three gubernatorial preference questions. The first involved showing each respondent a list of Democratic candidates whose names wi II appear on the ballot. The other two questions listed Reagan and Unruh or Reagan and Yorty plus a third candidate from the American Independent Party. The two AlP names were Keith H. Greene and William K. Shearer, each appeari ng in ha If the cases. See reverse side for answers to some typical questions about the Poll. The California Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium lor promoting public opinion resaarch. The California Poll is completely independent of all political parties and candidates. Its sole purpose is to report public opinion accurately and objectively. Financial support tor the Poll comes from newspapers and television stations that have exclusive rights within the city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the data reported in ItS releases. Representative samples of adults are interviewed at periodic intervals on election issues and other socially important questions of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts ot the state, Irom diherent sized communities, and of all age, economic, political, and occupallon groups are included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1,000 or more respondents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of not less than 600 interviews.
-.. bniveraity ~ "io-' Survey ResearcH Center of California!erkel~11 California 9472d THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATIOI~ SINCE 1946 San Francisco Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street San Francisco 94104 392-5766 Mervin D. Field, Director Robert Heyer, Editor LOS Angeles Office 3142 Wilshire Boulevard Los Angeles 90005 3B5-5259 INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY Dates of interviewing: Population covered by this survey: Number of interviews: Sample design: Wording of the questions on whi ch this report is based: May 4 - May 11f 1970 Representative cross-section of California adult public. In the base sample of 1058 adults 21 and over were interviewed. The figures in this report are based on a total of 802 adults who said they were registered voters: 457 Democrats, 315 Republicans, and 30 affiliated with another party or in the "ded ined to state" category. The survey interviews are selected in accordance with a probabi Iity sample design which provides for random (i.e., non-judgemental) selection of households. Assignments in a particular place are done in clusters with randomly drawn addresses as starting points for each cluster of interviews. For this survey, 260 clusters throughout the state were selected. Each cluster consisted of seven consecutive households, beginning with the designated starting household. Interviewers made up to three calls on every listed address in an attempt to complete an interview. One adult per household was selected for interview on a systematic basis to provide a balance by sex and age. Interviewing was conducted during late afternoon and evening on weekdays and all day on the week-end. The sample is designed to be sel f-weighted on all variables of interest f such as area of state, degree of urbanization, political party affil iation, and socio-economic status. Whenever occastional imbalances in key variables occur in the sample due to sampl ing variability or other factors f corrective weights are applied during the data processing stage to assure that the survey findings reflect a correct weighting of respondents. IIThese candidates (UST) are running for the Republ ican U.S. Senate nomination next month. Which one would you probably vote for if you were voting today?1i IIThese candidates (LIST) are running for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination next month. Which one would you probably vote for if you were voting today?1i IINow, let1s assume that George Murphy was the Republican nominee in the November election for U.S. Senator. Here are some cards showing some possible Democrats who might be running against him in the November election. If the election were being held today which of these candidates would you probably vote for?1i See reverse side for answers to some typical questions about the Poll The Calilornia Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium lor promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all political panies and canilidares.lts sole purpose is to report public opinion accurately and objeclively. Financial support fot the Poll comes from newspapers and television stations that have exclusive rights within th~ city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the dala reported in its releases. Representative samples of adults are interviewed at periodi~~ervals on election issues and other socially imponant questions of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts of the state, from different sized communities, and of all age, economic, political, and occupation groups are included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1.000 or more respondents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of not less than BOD interviews.
The California Poll- page 2 Candidates for- Governor Senator Issues should be talking about- High taxes, high cost of living, government spending 56% 40% Environmental problems: air and water poll ution, conserving our natural resources 48 39 Education problems (poor quality, need for more schools) 27 16 Welfare system, needs change 18 13 Crime, law and order 17 16 Youth unrest / campus disorders 10 4 Racial problems 9 7 Drug problem 6 7 War, peace, Vietnam 4 14 {partial table} Other problems mentioned by groups of voters ranging in size from one to five percent are: unemployment, heal th problems, housing, poverty, birth control, transportation, problems of the aged, consumer protection, corruption in government. While there are some differences in degree of concern, these issues cut across partisan interests, section of state, age, income, and other demographic characteristics. -30 COPYRIGHT 1970 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
- -r THE CALIFORNIA San POLL - - - - - - THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SINCE 1946 San FranciSCO Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street Francisco 94104 392-5766 Mervin D. Field, Director Robert Heyer, Editor LOS Angeles Office 3142 Wilshire Boulevard Los Angeles 90005 385-5259 INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY Dates of interviewi ng: February 2 - February 8, 1970 Population covered by this survey: Sample design:, Representative cross-section of Cal ifornia adul t publ ic. The survey interviews are selected in accordance with a probability sample design which provides for random (i.e., non-judgemental) selecti on of hous holds. Assignments in a particular place are done in clusters with randomly drawn addresses as starting points for each cluster of interviews. For this survey, 260 clusters throughout the state were selected. Each cluster consisted of seven consecutive households, beginning with the designated starti household. Interviewers made up tl;) three calls on every Iisted address in al attempt to complete an interview. One adult per household was selected fe interview ona systematic basis to provide a balance by sex and age. Interviewing was conducted during late afternoon and evening on weekdays and day on the week-end. The sample is designed to be sel f-weighted on all variables of interest, such as area of state, degree of urbanization, politice party affiliation, and socio-economic status. Whenever occasional imbalar in key variables occur in the sample due to sampling variability or other factors, corrective weights are applied during the data processing stage to assure that the survey findings reflect a correct weighting of respondents, Number of interviews: Th is survey is based on a sam pie of 982. Wording of the questions on which this report is based: IIWhat issue, or problems, do you think the variol)s candidates for governor should be talking about as far as you are concerned?1i IIWhat issue, or problems, do you think the various candidates for senator should be talking about as far as you are concerned? II ~e reverse si de for answers to I ~me typical questions about the Po!!.J The California Poll was founded In 1946 as a medium for promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is complelely independent of all political parties and candidales.lts sole purpose is to report public opinion accurately and objectively. Financial support for the Poll comes from newspapers and television stations thai have exclusive rights within the city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the dala reported in its releases. Representative samples of adults are interviewed al periodic intervals on election issues and other socially,"". important questions of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts of the state, from different sized communities, and of all age, economic, political. ~nd occupation groups are included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1.000 or more respon'dents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of not less tha~. 500.interviews.
-.-- - - - - - NOTE TO EDITORS: Following are answers to some questions frequently asked about The California Poll. These may be hel pful for your own background or to answer questions put to you about The Poll. Any or all of this may be publ ished at your option. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT THE CALIFORNIA POll Q. Who runs The California Poll? A. The Cal ifornia Poll is owned and operated by Field Research Corporation, an independent national publ ic opinion and marketing research agency with headquarters in Son Francisco. The Poll was founded in 1946 and has been published continuously since that time. The Poll is non-partisan. Q. Who pays for the surveys conducted by The Cal ifornia Poll? A. The cost of operating The (c'-:;'lia Poll is underwritten by ]3 newspapers and four television stations in California. Each one pays an annual fee for exclusive publication or broadcast rights in its area. The Poll does not accept fees from any candidates, political parties, or individuals who have any interest in the data being publ ished. Its sole purpose is to report public opinion objectively and accurately. Q. How are The Cal ifornia Poll's surveys conducted'? A. The surveys are made by means of personal interviews conducted by trained interviewers using printed questionnaires. Survey respondents are selected by scientific methods to assure that an accurate cross section of adul tsin all wal ks of Iife throughout the state and representing all shades of political belief are included in their proper proportion in the sample. Q. Are the same people interviewed in each survey? A. No. Fresh samples of respondents are drawn for each survey. (Panels of respondents re-interviewed at intervals are also a valid and valuable research technique for certain special purposes, but they are seldom used for surveys of the type conducted by The Cal ifornia Poll.) Q. How are the samples selected and how many people are interviewed? A. Samples are drawn by probabil ity sampling methods which give each ho~sehold in the state an equal chance of being called on for an interview. Within households, the interviewers select adult respondents to fit sex and age quotas to match the state population as a whole. Samples vary in size between 500 and 1000 respondents pe r survey. Q. Do people give honest answers to surveys of this type'l A. In countless surveys of this type we have found that people are remarkably candid in talking to our interviewers, and wherever we have an opportunity to test the val idity of their answers (for example, in an election) there is good evidence that they have actually given us their true opinions. We recognize that without publ ic confidence surveys of this kind would be impossible and so we guarantee each respondent complete anonymity. After a percentage of the interviews have been val idated by supervisors, the data are compiled only as statistical summaries.. Names of survey respondents are never released for sales or political use. Q. Are sample surveys of this type accurate? A. Time after time it has been demonstrated that carefully designed samples of this size are very reliable. Wherever the results can be checked against known data, they have proved to be accurate with relatively narrow tolerance limits. For example, a survey of 1000 respondents typically will be accurate within plus or minus approximately 4.5 percentage points, and a survey of 500 respondents has a tolerance range of about 6.7 percentage points. Thousands of such surveys are done each year for business and government and great rei iance is put on their findings. See reverse side for specific information about- ] [ the current survey.