A Profile of Germany s Refugee Populations

DATA AND PERSPECTIVES A Profile of Germany s Refugee Populations SABRINA JURAN P. NICLAS BROER AS A RESULT of the war in Syria, as well as other humanitarian crises, poverty, and social deprivation in Africa and elsewhere, European Union countries have experienced high inflows of asylum-seekers, refugees, and migrants. 1 Civil unrest and armed conflict generate vital and complex needs. The health and living conditions of the incoming population vary greatly based on origin, geographic location, underlying medical and nutritional status, and the events that caused the initial relocation. 2 Years spent in a conflict zone or in transit may leave affected populations with gaps in education, malnutrition, and unaddressed health concerns. 3 In order to provide adequate protection and plan for integration, host governments and societies need information on the characteristics and conditions of the population entering the country. In the case of Germany systematic detailed socio-demographic and economic data on asylum-seekers and refugees entering and living in the country are limited or available only after a long time lag. This article brings together different data sources to describe the current characteristics of refugees in Germany and inform future decisionmaking and policy formulation. In 2015, about 995,000 first-time asylum applications were submitted in countries of the European Union, more than twice the number for 2014. Germany has become the primary country of destination in Europe for asylum-seekers. 4 With almost 175,000 applicants in Germany, 61 percent of all first-time asylum applicants recorded in EU Member States registered in Germany during the first quarter of 2016. Italy ranked second with 22,300 applicants (8 percent of the EU total), followed by France (18,000, 6 percent), Austria (13,900, 5 percent), and the United Kingdom (10,100, 4 percent). Together, these five countries account for 83 percent of all applicants in the EU. 5,6 Current asylum applications in Germany represent a historic high (Figure 1). Asylum applications reached similar levels in the early 1990s as a response to the war in former Yugoslavia, but by 2008 the number POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 43(1): 149 157 (MARCH 2017) 149

150 APROFILE OF G ERMANY S R EFUGEE P OPULATIONS FIGURE 1 Asylum applications in Germany, 1953 2015 (in thousands) SOURCE: Bundesamt für Migration und had declined sharply. Since then, they have increased steadily, with over 476,000 people filing a claim for asylum in 2015. 7 Germany is part of the Dublin area, comprising the EU Member States as well as Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein. The Dublin regulations determine which European State is responsible for an asylum claim and seek to ensure that each application entered in the Dublin area is processed by one state only. In 2015, the German Office for Migration and Refugees, along with other offices or ministries from other European States, suspended the Dublin regulations for asylum-seekers from Syria, primarily to accelerate the asylum process based on humanitarian grounds. 8 Asylum procedures in Germany distinguish between two kinds of applications. An initial application is created when a foreign national applies for asylum for the first time; a subsequent application is filed if, after the withdrawal or incontestable rejection of the previously submitted asylum application, another application is recorded. 9 Over the course of 2015, a peak in first-time asylum applications was seen in November, when some 58,000 applications were recorded (Figure 2). At the same time, the number of deportations has increased significantly since 2013 to levels comparable to those about a decade earlier (Figure 3). Germany recorded over 20,000 deportations in 2015. The actual number of deportations represents less than 10 percent of the number of asylum-seekers who are living temporarily in Germany and are legally

S ABRINA J URAN /P.NICLAS B ROER 151 FIGURE 2 First-time and subsequent asylum applications in Germany, by month, in 2015 (in thousands) SOURCE: Bundesamt für Migration und required to leave. Of the more than 220,000 people required to leave, however, some 172,000 are officially tolerated (geduldet) owing to factors such as illness or the lack of papers that prevents the home country from accepting their return. 10 In 2015, Syrians represented the largest group of first-time asylum applicants in the European Union. Of all Syrians who applied for asylum in the EU in the first quarter of 2016, almost 90 percent registered in Germany (88,500 of 102,400), followed by 73 percent of Iraqis and 57 percent of Afghans. Syria also ranked first among the principal countries of origin for asylum-seekers, followed by Albania and Kosovo (Figure 4). Throughout the year, the number of asylum applications submitted by Syrian nationals increased each month. The proportion of asylum-seekers coming from the ten principal countries of origin accounted for around 82 percent of all asylum applications filed in Germany in 2015. Compared to 2014, the largest increases in applications were from Albania (584 percent), Iraq (457 percent), Kosovo (384 percent), and Syria (303 percent). 11 During 2015, around 1.1 million asylum applications were recorded in the German registration system, EASY. 12 EASY manages the distribution of asylum-seekers throughout the country s 16 Federal States. Before distribution occurs, each asylum-seeker must record his or her intention to apply for asylum. The EASY distribution system collects information on the receiving German Federal State and the country of origin of the asylum-seeker. No demographic or socioeconomic information is collected at this point. Distribution quotas exist for each Federal State. Distribution to a reception facility depends on the capacity of the facilities and the regional

152 APROFILE OF G ERMANY S R EFUGEE P OPULATIONS FIGURE 3 Annual number of deportations, 2000 2015 (in thousands) SOURCE: As in endnote 6. responsibilities of the branch of the Federal Office in which the asylum claim falls. The Königstein Key specifies the percentage of asylum-seekers and refugees each Federal State is required to accept. These quotas are revised on an annual basis, taking into account changes in total population and tax receipts. 13 Bavaria and Baden Württemberg have the largest proportion of asylum-seekers with 15.3 percent and 13.0 percent, respectively. Schleswig- Holstein and Thuringia rank lowest with 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent. 14 When considering the proportion of asylum applications per 1,000 native German citizens, on the other hand, these rankings change considerately. Asylum applicants in Germany account for 0.5 percent of the total national population. While the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has the highest proportion of asylum applications with 11.8 asylum applications per 1,000 inhabitants, this number represents only 1.2 percent of the state s total population. Saarland rankings second, with 10.2 applications per 1,000 inhabitants (1.2 percent of the total state population), followed by Berlin with 9.6 applications per 1,000 inhabitants (0.96 percent). North Rhine-Westphalia (3.8 per 1,000) and Lower Saxony (4.4 per 1,000) have the lowest application rates, accounting for less than 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent of the total federal population. 15 Recent asylum-seekers are predominantly in the age range 18 34 years (Figure 5). In 2015, 71 percent of applicants were below age 30, and

S ABRINA J URAN /P.NICLAS B ROER 153 FIGURE 4 Asylum applications from top ten countries of origin, Germany, 2015 (in thousands) a Sum of asylum-seekers without confirmed country of origin. NOTE: Number of initial claims for asylum in 2015. SOURCE: Bundesamt für Migration und 31 percent were below age 18. Less than one percent of asylum applicants are older than age 54. Over two thirds (69.2 percent) of asylum applicants in Germany from the principal countries of origin in 2015 are male. The proportion of women from these countries who submitted asylum applications ranges from 7.3 percent from Pakistan to 49.0 percent from Serbia. 16 While the distribution of males and females is fairly even under age 11, males are the majority in all other age groups below age 65. Only in the age group 65 years and older does the proportion of applications submitted by females (53.4 percent) exceed the proportion submitted by males. The labor market integration of refugees can be a long-term process. Despite increasing rates of employment among refugees with longer duration of stay in Germany, it took around 20 years for earlier waves of refugees to attain the employment rate of the national population. Women have had considerably greater difficulty than men in the German labor market. 17 It remains to be seen whether the same patterns hold for recent refugees and whether highly qualified refugees in particular can quickly find employment appropriate to their qualifications. German administrative data on the educational attainment of asylumseekers and refugees are incomplete. Asylum-seekers are asked to voluntarily provide information on their highest level of education. The

154 APROFILE OF G ERMANY S R EFUGEE P OPULATIONS FIGURE 5 Sex and age pyramid of asylum-seekers in Germany, 2015 NOTE: Number of initial claims for asylum in 2015. SOURCE: Bundesamt für Migration und Federal Office for Migration and Refugees recorded such information for some 73 percent of all adults who applied for asylum in 2015. 18 Among these adults, 18 percent had university-level education and 20 percent had higher secondary education. While 22 percent recorded primary education as the highest level achieved, only 7 percent stated that they had no formal education. The majority of refugees from Syria (54 percent) have at least higher secondary education. 19 Newly arriving asylum-seekers and refugees can benefit from integration courses, including language and remedial courses. In Germany, asylum-seekers who have good prospects for granted stay have access to such courses. Figure 6 shows trends in participation in voluntary and required integration courses offered by the German government. Increases in the number of asylum-seekers with granted refugee status have led to a rise in the number of participants in integration courses. Some 283,000 refugees were eligible to participate in integration courses in 2015, a 34 percent increase over 2014. Around 179,000 refugees attended integration courses in 2015, an increase of 26 percent from 2014. Refugees whose participation was required by immigration authorities accounted for nearly 45 percent of the total. 20 Even basic German-language skills are expected to significantly increase the probability of employment among asylum-seekers and

S ABRINA J URAN /P.NICLAS B ROER 155 FIGURE 6 Voluntary and required participation by refugees in integration courses, 2005 2015 (in thousands) SOURCE: Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (2016). Bericht zur Integrationskursgeschäftsstatistik für das Jahr 2015. Nürnberg. refugees. 21 General integration courses, including language skills, were the most widely attended courses in 2015. Of all participants, 78 percent took part in a general integration course, followed by literacy courses (12.3 percent). While men s and women s participation is fairly even among general courses, men make up 59 percent of all students in literacy courses. Syrian refugees account for 19.2 percent of all course participants. 22 The increase in the number of asylum-seekers and refugees in Germany will have socioeconomic and demographic effects. 23 Despite initial costs to meet the needs of this population and to integrate them into the educational system and labor market, the OECD projects an additional 0.5 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 and 2017 resulting from public spending. 24 At the same time, new arrivals are expected to contribute positively to Germany s economic performance through an increase in labor supply and a boost in demand for goods and services. The full realization of such economic benefits will depend, however, on the extent to which refugees can be fully integrated into German society. One step toward achieving this goal is the collection of reliable statistics to enable local and national leaders to identify and meet the needs of these new members of German society.

156 APROFILE OF G ERMANY S R EFUGEE P OPULATIONS Notes The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the United Nations Population Fund nor the Academic Teaching Hospital Munich. 1 While an asylum-seeker is a person whose request for sanctuary has yet to be processed, a refugee is a person who has been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war, or violence and has been granted asylum status. A refugee has a wellfounded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group. Most likely, they cannot return home or are afraid to do so. War and ethnic, tribal and religious violence are leading causes of refugees fleeing their countries. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (1951). Convention and protocol relating to the status of refugees. 2 P. Niclas Broer and Sabrina Juran (2016). Surgical needs of refugee populations in the European Union: Implications for plastic and reconstructive surgery, World Journal of Plastic Surgery 5(3): 325 327. 3 Sabrina Juran (2017). Die unterbrochenen Lebensläufe von Flüchtlingskindern, am Beispiel von syrischen Fluüchtlingskindern in Deutschland, in Hans Bertram (ed.), Fragt die Kinder! Finanzkrise, Flüchtlingskrise und kindliches Wohlbefinden Der UNICEF- Bericht zur Lage der Kinder in Deutschland im europäischen Kontext. Opladen, Berlin, Toronto: Verlag Barbara Budrich. 4 Eurostat (2016). Asylum and first time asylum applicants by citizenship, age and sex, monthly data. Last retrieved 12 July 2016. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticsexplained/index.php/asylum_quarterly_re port#main_statistical_findings. 5 Eurostat (2016). Asylum Quarterly Report. Last retrieved 12 July 2016. http:// appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/setupdo wnloads.do. 6 Bundesministerium des Innern (2016). Migration und Integration. Last retrieved 31 August 2016 http://www.bmi. bund.de/de/themen/migration-integration/ migration-integration_node.html. 7 Discrepancies between registrations and claims are due to the time lag between arrival of asylum-seekers and registration. Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (2016). Das Bundesamt in Zahlen 2015. Asyl. Nürnberg. 8 Bundesamt für Migration und 9 Bundesamt für Migration und 10 Bundesministerium des Innern (2016). Migration und Integration. Last retrieved 31 August 2016 http://www.bmi. bund.de/de/themen/migration-integrat ion/migration-integration_node.html. integration_node.html. 11 Bundesamt für Migration und 12 EASY stands for Erstverteilung von Asylbegehrenden, or Initial Allocation System for Asylum Seekers. 13 Bundesamt für Migration und 14 Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (2016). The Distribution of Asylum Applicants. Last retrieved 12 July 2016. http://www.bamf.de/en/migration/ AsylFluechtlinge/Asylverfahren/Verteilung/ verteilung-node.html. 15 Statistisches Bundesamt (2016). Bevölkerung auf Grundlage des Zensus 2011. Last retrieved 12 July 2016. https://www.des tatis.de/de/zahlenfakten/gesellschaftstaat/ Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsstand/Bevoelk erungsstand.html;jsessionid=457380f3570 775B8E32E74CE3C264534.cae1#Tabelle.

S ABRINA J URAN /P.NICLAS B ROER 157 16 Bundesamt für Migration und 17 United Nations Children s Fund (2008). Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2006. Syrian Arab Republic. Monitoring the Situation of Children and Women. New York. 18 Anna-Katharina Rich (2016). Asylerstantragsteller in Deutschland im Jahr 2015: Sozialstruktur, Qualifikationsniveau und Berufstätigkeit. BAMF-Kurzanalyse 3/2016. Nürnberg: Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge. 19 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development and the European Commission (2016). How Are Refugees Faring on the Labour Market in Europe? A First Evaluation based on the 2014 EU Labour Force Survey ad hoc Module. 20 Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (2016). Bericht zur Integrationskursgeschäftsstatistik für das Jahr 2015. Nürnberg. 21 Sabrina Juran (2016). Crossing the Border. Measuring the Contribution of International Migration to Human Development. Randers C: Phoenix Design Aid A/S. 22 Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge. (2016). Bericht zur Integrationskursgeschäftsstatistik für das Jahr 2015. Nürnberg. 23 Aiyar Shekhar et al. (2016). The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic Challenges. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. In the short term, the macroeconomic effect from the refugee surge is likely to be a modest increase in GDP growth, reflecting the fiscal expansion associated with support to the asylum seekers, as well as the expansion in labor supply as the newcomers begin to enter the labor force. The impact of the refugees on medium and long-term growth depends on how they will be integrated in the labor market. 24 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2015). European Union. 2015. Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2015: Settling In. Paris.