The Emergence of Latin America: A Break with History? Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution Brookings Mountain West University of Nevada, Las Vegas March 1, 2011
It is impossible to understand Latin America without leaving it and observing it from afar with your own eyes, noting at the same time the myths and stereotypes that have been constructed about it abroad. Mario Vargas-Llosa The Paradoxes of Latin America.
Latin America: Facts and myths Latin America is no longer the stereotype of populism and economic mismanagement, but it would be misleading to derive from the recent progress some form of complacency. There are important ideological and economic differences within the region, so generalizations tend to be misleading. In this lecture I would like to debunk some myths, while re-stating some unpleasant facts that remain part of Latin America s reality.
Population in Millions GDP (Billions current USD) Latin America is economically relevant: Similar to China in GDP with a smaller population (for 2009) LAC & China Populations LAC & China GDP (USD) 1,400 1331 6000 1,200 5000 4985 1,000 4000 4179 800 600 579 3000 400 2000 200 1000 - Latin America & Caribbean China 0 Latin America & Caribbean China Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009)
US Crude Oil Imports 2010 4% 3% 2% 1% 12% 5% 4% 13% 33% LAC CANADA SAUDI ARABIA NIGERIA IRAQ ANGOLA ALGERIA RUSSIA KUWAIT UNITED KINGDOM 23% Source: US Energy Information Administration, February 25, 2011
Country Total 2010 Exports (in billions of USD) Canada 248.8 Mexico 163.3 China 91.9 Japan 60.5 United Kingdom 48.5 Germany 48.2 Korea, South 38.8 Brazil 35.3 Netherlands 34.9 Singapore 29.1 France 27.0 Hong Kong 26.5 Taiwan 26.0 Belgium 25.5 Australia 21.8 Switzerland 20.6 India 19.2 Italy 14.1 Malaysia 13.9 Colombia 12.0
Population in Millions GDP (Billions current USD) Seven countries in the region account for more than 80% of the population and GDP LAC & LAC7 Populations LAC & LAC7 GDP (USD) 700 4500 4179 600 500 400 300 200 100 458 28 29 107 45 16 193 578 Venezuela Peru Mexico Colombia Chile Brazil Argentina 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 3607 326 130 874 234 163 1573 Venezuela Peru Mexico Colombia Chile Brazil Argentina 0 40 0 307 LAC7 Latin America & Caribbean LAC7 Latin America & Caribbean Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009)
Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Latin America is now performing much better than the developed countries 6 5 Trend GDP growth in LAC and High Income Countries Stock Market Indexes, Jan 2007 = 100 Latin America 4 3 2 1 High Income 0
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 2010f Percent Percent Hyperinflations are long gone Inflation (%) Monetary policy interest rate (%) 9 23 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 18 13 8 1 0-1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru United States Uruguay 3-2 Brasil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru US Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook; Central Bank bulletins and Economist Intelligence Unit.
% of GDP % of GDP As well as Fiscal Populism 3-1 -5-9 -13-17 Fiscal Balance 2-1 -1-3 -3-1 -2-7 -9-9 -10-14 2007 2010 US Euro Japan UK OECD LAC-7 200 160 120 80 40 0 Gross Nominal Liabilities 200 2007 2010 167 98 100 89 89 71 74 63 47 33 33 US Euro Japan UK OECD LAC-7 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Consensus Forecast (Sep. 2009) 10
1900 1906 1912 1918 1924 1930 1936 1942 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 Disappointing long-term track record 0.8 0.7 0.6 GDP Per Capita of Selected Regions / US GDP per Capita Gold Standard Period Interwar Period US Recovers Alliance for Progress Imports Substitution Lost Decade Washington Consensus Washington Dissensus 0.5 0.4 LAC/US 0.3 0.2 0.1 Asian Tigers/US 0 Source: Maddison (2009).
Percents And much of it has to do with Total Factor Productivity 80% Growth decomposition 2000-2007 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Human Capital Physical Capital Labor Force/Population TFP 47.8% 3.4% 20% 10% 0% 14.9% 6.7% 7.2% 23.5% 6.4% 5.6% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 6.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.3% 1.2% 3.3% LAC-7 minus Venezuela plus Uruguay Rest of LAC Emerging Asia (w/o China) PCE China Notes: PCE: Peripheral core economies (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden). Source: own calculations based on data from Blyde, Daude and Fernández-Arias (2009).
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Wheat, Copper and Soybean, 01-Jan-05=100 Oil WTI, Current US$ The good fortune of high commodity process Commodity Prices Oil WTI in Current US$, Wheat, Copper and Soybean: Index 01-Jan-05=100 350 Subprime eruption Bear Stearns Pandit's Memo 150 300 Wheat 130 250 200 Copper Soybean 110 90 150 70 100 Lehman 50 50 Oil (rhs) 30
Democratic consolidation Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia -10-5 0 5 10-10 -5 0 5 10-10 -5 0 5 10-10 -5 0 5 10-10 -5 0 5 10 Costa Rica Dominican Rep Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay 1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000 1900 1950 2000 Venezuela 1900 1950 2000 year Source: Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2008 (2008) Polity2 measure: Democracy Autocracy (-10,+10)
0.1.2.3 0.1.2.3 Average number of coups per country in LAC countries Sub-Saharan Africa Asia (non-middle East) LAC OECD 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 year Source: Coups d Etat, 1960-2006, Center for Systemic Peace (2007)
Murder Rate per 100,000 people
Some progress in the reduction of inequality Source: Gasparini et al. (2009) based on SEDLAC. v 20
Ecuador Paraguay Brazil Bolivia Chile Dominican Rep. Mexico Peru El Salvador Argentina Panama Venezuela Guatemala Uruguay Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras Total 12 countries Total 17 countries Annual percentage change in Gini (in %) Annual Percentage Change in Gini Coefficient 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.1-1.0-2.0-1.4-1.1-1.0-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.6-0.2-1.1-0.5-3.0-3.1-4.0 21
A new middle class is emerging 60 Brazil Economic Classes Share (August 2008- December 2009; 2014 forecast) 50 40 30 20 Class AB (more than R 4807) Class C (R 1115-4807) Class D (804-1115) Class E (R 0-804) 10 0
Household per capita income and its determinants Per capita household income Proportion of adults in the household FERTILITY Household income per adult Household non-labor income per adult RENTS & PROFITS REMITTANCES GOV. TRANSFFERS Household labor income per adult Proportion of working adults PARTICIPATION IN LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT OPPORT Labor income per working adult in the household WAGES BY SKILL/OTHER HOURS WORKED 23
Composition of adult population by education level 24
Mathematics score in PISA 2006 But a very large gap remains in the quality of education 550 500 450 Finland Hong Kong Korea Netherlands Macao, China New Zealand Switzerland Australia Belgium Japan Czech Republic Austria Denmark Estonia Germany Slovenia Iceland Ireland France UK Norway Poland Sweden Hungary Slovak Republic Lithuania Luxembourg Latvia Azerbaijan Spain United States Croatia Portugal Greece Italy Israel 400 350 Indonesia Uruguay Turkey Romania Chile Argentina Thailand Mexico Jordan Brazil Bulgaria Colombia Tunisia 300 Kyrgyz Republic 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita) Source: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level. 25
Private vs. public education: Performance and socioeconomic status Source: OECD (2006). 26
A way to measure progress towards development Variables used in the rankings: Real GDP growth Inflation, average CPI (%) Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance (%GDP) Net external debt (%GDP) Net external financing needs/car (%) Public sector external debt (%GDP) Emerging market bond spreads (bp) Gini coefficient (%) Human development index Composite world governance indicator Stable Growth Policy Track Record Financial vulnerabilities Development factors
Vietnam China Egypt India Indonesia Philippines Poland Korea South Africa Malaysia Developed (avg) Thailand Peru Brazil Chile Singapore Bulgaria Israel Taiwan Russia Czech Republic Colombia Romania Ecuador Hungary Lithuania Estonia Mexico Ukraine Turkey Latvia Argentina Uruguay Venezuela Taiwan Singapore Developed (avg) Malaysia China Korea Peru Thailand Israel Czech Republic Chile Lithuania Poland Estonia Philippines India Colombia South Africa Hungary Bulgaria Latvia Brazil Mexico Egypt Uruguay Vietnam Indonesia Argentina Ukraine Venezuela Romania Russia Turkey Ecuador Graduation scorecard: Core program Risk adjusted GDP Risk adjusted CPI 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Notes: Risk adjusted GDP is constructed as the mean of the real GDP growth (1999-2009)/standard deviation real GDP growth (1999-2009); Risk adjusted CPI is constructed as the mean of the CPI inflation rate (1999-2009)/standard deviation of the CPI inflation rate (1999-2009) Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit and IMF World Economic Outlook Data Base, April 2010.
Developed (avg) Russia Bulgaria Chile Brazil Argentina Colombia Peru Turkey Israel Estonia Mexico Taiwan Philippines Singapore Uruguay Poland South Africa Indonesia Thailand Hungary Korea Ukraine Lithuania China Latvia Egypt Vietnam Romania Czech Republic India Ecuador Malaysia Venezuela Singapore Chile Estonia Czech Republic Hungary Taiwan Korea Lithuania Uruguay Latvia Poland Israel Malaysia Bulgaria Romania Brazil Turkey Mexico India Argentina Thailand Peru Colombia Ukraine China Philippines Indonesia Egypt Vietnam Russia Ecuador Venezuela South Africa Graduation scorecard: the hard sciences Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance (%GDP) World Governance Indicators 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 Notes: Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance estimated as the intercept from a regression of the primary surplus on cyclical output, where the latter is obtained from the log-linear de-trending of real GDP. The Economist Intelligence Unit and Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi (2009). Governance Matters VIII
Singapore Taiwan Chile China Korea Israel Brazil Malaysia Poland Thailand Peru Vietnam Egypt India Bulgaria Czech Republic Mexico Indonesia Uruguay Estonia Philippines Colombia Argentina Hungary Russia South Africa Turkey Lithuania Ukraine Romania Latvia Ecuador Venezuela Graduation scorecard: Final report 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Sources: The Economist Intelligence Unit; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2010; Bank of International Settlements; Moody's; World Bank Global Economic Monitor and World Development Indicators; Human Development Report 2009; Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., Mastruzzi, M. (2009) Governance Matters VIII.
Bottom-line Macro policy framework is exemplary. But difficult to get GDP growth above 5 percent without generating inflationary pressures. Low potential growth. Effects of new dependency from China are not fully clear. Central America has very different challenges compared to South America. The positive trends suggest that this can become Latin America s decade.