ASEAN and the Great Powers Lecture: The ASEAN Community
ASEAN s future will depend primarily on internal ASEAN decisions. But it will also depend on the external decisions of the great powers. Indeed, the greatest threat to ASEAN as a regional organization comes from outside forces.
Introduction ASEAN benefited from favorable geopolitical winds Those winds can shift direction America and China, needs to consider carefully whether it is in its long-term interest to see ASEAN weakened or strengthened. Driven by long-term interests but short term advantages often trump long-term thinking For example: China and the South China Sea
Introduction Moving away from a uni-polar world to a multi-polar world ASEAN leaders should be mindful to look beyond the public statements Geopolitics can be a nasty game for smaller powers Condoleeza Rice - Bush Administration Obama Trump
ASEAN and America Phase 1: During the Cold War, a clear strategic alignment of interests led to a very close relationship. Phase 2: Began with the end of the Cold War. In the 1990s America, for various reasons, lost interest in its erstwhile allies, such as ASEAN. ASEAN felt abandoned by America. Phase 3 began with America rediscovering the strategic value of ASEAN following the tragic 9/ 11 attacks in 2001.
America & ASEAN Phase 1: During the Cold War, a clear strategic alignment of interests led to a very close relationship. Phase 2: Began with the end of the Cold War. In the 1990s America, for various reasons, lost interest in its erstwhile allies, such as ASEAN. ASEAN felt abandoned by America. Phase 3 Began with America rediscovering the strategic value of ASEAN following the tragic 9/ 11 attacks in 2001.
American Benefits Phase One American foreign investment produced more than economic benefits. American MNCs, unlike those in Japan, made a conscious effort to train local talent, and American investment created a whole new managerial and entrepreneurial class in Southeast Asia. Koh Boon Hwee, who served as chairman of several Singapore corporations, including Singapore Airlines, DBS Bank and Singtel, said that his years with Hewlett-Packard in the 1980s transformed him and paved the way for his successful career. Similarly, many successful bankers in Southeast Asia, especially in Singapore, were trained and developed by Citibank.
America Phase Two With the collapse of the Soviet Union, America lost its obsessive fear of Communist expansionism. As a result, ASEAN was no longer seen in Washington as a valuable geopolitical asset. Once their practical use diminished, America began to discover human rights defects in many of them and began to turn away. ASEAN and America during the Cold War as the honeymoon era, phase 2 was rejection. Why were ASEAN and other developing economies rejected? (Quiz Question) As early as Jimmy Carter in the 1980s, America started bringing human rights into foreign policy conversations. By the 1990s, human rights were used as a tool to create distance from inconvenient or former allies. Madeline Albright Moment - Al Gore in Malaysia America 1997 Financial Crisis reaction to Thailand/Korea/Indonesia - Double Standard
America Phase Three After 9/11 America realized that it once again needed global allies in the fight against international terrorism, and ASEAN s perceived value to Washington changed. Human rights issues that hounded US-ASEAN relations vanished. America went from being a defender to a violator of human rights when its national interests changed. (Torture and detention without trial) 2013 first ASEAN-US Summit - An Institutionalized Meeting 2016 - Obama became first president to host all ASEAN leaders
Obama Speech ASEAN Summit 2016
Obama - Myanmar Town Hall Meeting 2014 As President of the United States, I ve made it a priority to deepen America s ties with Southeast Asia in particular, with the young people of Southeast Asia. And I do this for reasons that go beyond the fact that I spent some of my childhood in Southeast Asia, in Indonesia. And that gives me a special attachment, a special feeling for Southeast Asia and this region. But I do it mainly because the 10 nations of ASEAN are home to about one in ten of the world s citizens. About two-thirds of Southeast Asia s population is under 35 years old. So this region a region of growing economies and emerging democracies, and a vibrant diversity that includes oceans and islands, and jungles and cities, and peoples of different races and religions and beliefs this region will shape the 21st century.
But Obama didn t prioritize ASEAN
American and ASEAN Going Forward Mind Share Through educational exchanges America can further cultivate a political and economic ecosystem sympathetic to American perspectives in Southeast Asia. As yet, no American administration has developed a long-term strategy to take advantage of this long-term and growing asset.
Watch Curtis Chin Interview
ASEAN and China Phase 1: Hostility Phase 2: Falling in Love Phase 3: Uncertainty
China Phase One When ASEAN was born in August 1967, China reacted with hostility. In its Joint Declaration issued on August 8, this alliance of US stooges openly supported the existence of the US military bases in Southeast Asia, not even bothering to make any excuses for them. All this proves that this reactionary association formed in the name of economic cooperation is a military alliance directed specifically against China. Why did China react this way?
China Phase Two First phase didn t last that long China began courting ASEAN slowly and steadily, and Malaysia established diplomatic relations with China in May 1974, followed by Thailand in July 1975. One major event triggered a period of extraordinary closeness between ASEAN and China: the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia in December 1978. China and ASEAN both opposed the invasion, as did the Americans, Opposition to the Soviet-supported Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia led to a decade of close collaboration in the 1980s between ASEAN, China and America. 1989 Tiananmen Square - ASEAN held its tongue Asian Financial Crisis of 1998 99, China helped out by refusing to devalue the RMB. China was first to propose an FTA - Framework signed in 2002 - Official in 2010
China Phase Three Low point in 2012 First time in 45 years no Joint Communique (WHY?) However, the author s say it would be natural for some of the strategic planners in Beijing to believe that China may be better off with a broken rather than a united ASEAN. Traditionally, great powers have engaged in the practice of divide-and-rule Dividing ASEAN might attract some in Beijing. Too early to tell whether Donald Trump s election will lead to new storms emerging in the US-China relationship. Yet a rough ride in US-China relations is plausible, if not likely. In this scenario, close relations between ASEAN and China would be a valuable strategic asset to China. (WHY?)
Watch Interview with Kishore Mahbubani
China Relations
China s Relations It would be equally wise for President Xi to also call for a new model of relations between great powers and small/ medium powers. Contrary to the conventional Western wisdom that China will inevitably emerge as a belligerent and aggressive power China can demonstrate that, unlike the United States, it can treat small and medium powers with respect.
China s Relations The two ASEAN countries that will always be the most wary of China are Vietnam and Myanmar - Due to their history The Qianlong Emperor invaded Myanmar four times between 1765 and 1769, conflicts that led to the creation of the presentday border with China. 147 The Myanmar border was also the scene of skirmishes resulting from the civil war between Chinese nationalists and Communists. The war between China and Vietnam in 1979 left more than 50,000 Vietnamese dead, although the conflict lasted only three weeks and six days.
China s Relations Vietnam was occupied by China for more than 1,000 years, from 111 BC to AD 938. The lesson was clear, he said in an interview, you happen to be destroying us now, but you ll leave. China will always be here. They share in common the preservation of the communist party leadership in Beijing and Hanoi Thailand remains an American ally, but it has received a great deal of Chinese aid and is emerging as a country sympathetic to China s interests. American criticism and indeed ostracism of military-dominated governments has pushed Thailand closer to China.
China s Relations China has also been exceptionally generous to Cambodia and Laos, and they have emerged as the two most pro-china governments within the ASEAN constellation. Maritime Relations are shaky because of the Touch China Sea territorial disputes China-Philippines tensions have subsided as President Duterte has said that he will try to work together with China to resolve issues in the South China Sea bilaterally. Malaysia has history of good relations with China - but have competing claims in South China Sea
China s Relations - Indonesia Indonesia s relations with China are complicated by several factors. With its aspirations towards becoming a middle power, Indonesia is not naturally deferential to China. Indonesia was one of the last ASEAN countries to establish diplomatic relations with China because President Suharto believed that the Chinese Communist Party had supported the PKI s attempted coup in 1965. Suharto only allowed diplomatic relations to be established in 1990. Suharto is gone, but the wariness of China remains. The Nine-Dash Line China has drawn in the South China Sea intrudes on Indonesia s own Exclusive Economic Zone. China has given various private assurances to Indonesian leaders that it does not claim those Exclusive Economic Zone waters but will not say this publicly. \ There have also been incidents between Indonesian and Chinese government vessels in the South China Sea.
Takeaways The ASEAN group needs to agree, by traditional ASEAN consensus, to walk a middle path between being supplicant and hostile to China. An independent and neutral ASEAN could help lubricate and soften China s relations with other major powers, especially Asian powers such as India and Japan.
Recent Controversy Chinese tourists arrived in southern Cam Ranh airport on Sunday night and were stopped by security at the immigration desk who asked them to take the T-shirts off before allowing them to officially enter the country. (Source)
Nine Dash Line - South China Sea
Nine Dash Line Following the defeat of Japan at the end of World War II, the Republic of China (Taiwan) reclaimed the entirety of the Paracels, Pratas and Spratly Islands after accepting the Japanese surrender The Nine-Dash Line has been used by China to show the maximum extent of its claim Philippines: In 2016 five arbitrators agreed unanimously there was no evidence that China had historically exercised exclusive control over the waters or resources, and had"no legal basis for China to claim historic rights" over the Nine-Dash Line. Watch & Read
Why China is building islands in the South China Sea
Your Turn ASEAN and India ASEAN and the EU ASEAN and Japan 1. History of relations (Conflicts, agreements, trade, etc) 2. Current relations 3. Author s opinion on why important 4. Author s thoughts on future