Tables and Graphs 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Figure 1: a) distribution violence per month - total; b) distribution Kenema/Kailahun (orange) vs. all other districts (blue) Figure 2: Comparison data-sets over time. 1
Figure 3: Main conflict actors per dataset. 2
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Figure 4: a) TRC data month and day; b) TRC data year ; c) SLls-LED all 3
Tables ACLED Version 4 SLls-LED, 2014 Battle-No change of territory A battle between two violent armed groups where control of the contested location does not change Battle-Non-state actors A battle where non-state actors win control of overtake territory location (If two non-state groups fight and the group that did not begin with control acquires it, this is the Battle-Government regains territory Headquarters or base established Non-violent activity by a conflict actor Riots/Protests Violence against civilians Non-violent transfer of territory correct code) A battle in which the government regains control of a location (this includes proxies fighting for government) A rebel group establishes a base or headquarters. This event records activity by rebel groups/militia/governments that does not involve active fighting but is within the context of the war/dispute. For example recruitment drives, incursions or rallies. It also records the location and date of peace talks, militia rallies and arrests of highranking officials. When any armed/violent group attacks unarmed civilians. Civilians are UNARMED and NOT ABLE to defend themselves. It includes inflicting significant physical harm (e.g. bombing, shooting, torture, rape, mutilation etc.) or accosting victims (e.g. disappearances). When rebels or governments acquire control of a location without engaging in a violent act. When two non-state actor fight actor 2 acquires territory. When two non-state actor fight actor 1 acquires territory Not restricted to rebel groups. Any armed/violent group including DDR camps. No inclusion of peace talks, or forced to carry loads Includes destruction property, food-finding missions and ambushes when there is no violence against civilians Absent Harassment and beatings are not included When rebels (briefly) take over village/town without engaging in fighting with government forces/allies. Also; Reinforcements/Troop movements/patrols/disarmament Table I: Event type and differences in coding ACLED-v4, SLls-LED 4
SLls_LED Bellows & Miguel ACLED v-4 UCDP-GED TRC Coverage detail 1991-2001 1991-2001 1997-2001 1991-2001 1990-2001 Event Totals 8781 1998 1201 1475 40.243 Battles 10,6% (934) 5,7% (114) 43,9% (527) 41,9% (617) - 5,4% (473) 3,7% (340) 9.9% (198) 5,7% (105) 12.83% (154) 10.50 % (126) VAC 23,5% (2061) 16,4% (328) 21,4% (257) 58,1% (857) 20,5% (8265) Looting 20,8% (1828) 2,6% (51) 8.2% (98) - 34,8% (14.020) Bases 7,2% (340) 8,4% (168) 0.4 % (5) - - Territory 28,7% (2516) 51,7% (1031) 0.7% (8) - - Miscellaneous - - - - 44,6% (17.957) Actors (% allied) 77 (13%) 26 (50 %) 28 (11%) 15 (0%) 28 (6%) Main dyad RUF-GOV RUF-GOV Events ACLED-v4 Battle /Bombing, Base Execution Centre, Brutality, Attack, Troop Movement, Airfield, Control RUF-Military No-exchange Gov. overtakes territory Reb. overtakes territory Base Non-violent activity VAC Non-violent transfer territory RUF-Civilians State based Non-state based One-sided RUF-civilians Abduction, Destruct property, Extortion, Looting, Forced recruitment (Looting) Amputate, Torture, Rape, Sex. abuse/slave, Cannibal (VAC) Detention, Beating, Drugging, Forced Displacement & Labour (Miscellaneous) Time Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily peaks 1991/ 95/ 98 1991/ 95/ 98 1998/ 99/ 00 1991/ 95/ 98/ 99 1991/ 95/ 99 Location Specific Location Specific Location Specific Location Specific Location Chiefdom Bias - - Urban Partly Urban Bias - Sources NPWJ NPWJ Secondary Sources Secondary Sources (including NPWJ) Testimony Table II: Gross comparison of data-sets on Sierra Leone 5
TRC ACLED_v4 SLls-LED UCPD_GED B&M TRC ACLED_v4 0.3333 SLls-LED 0.8667 0.4667 UCPD_GED 0.8667 0.4667 B&M 0.8667 0.4667 Table III Kendalls Tau (KT) rank correlation for ranking five main clusters of actors All violence TRC ACLED_v4 SLls-LED UCPD_GED B&M TRC 0.9942 ACLED_v4 0.3158 0.9883 SLls-LED 0.6901 0.4620 UCPD_GED 0.6784 0.4503 0.7661 0.9883 B&M 0.7135 0.4152 0.8363 0.7778 Table IV KT rank correlation (N=18, all p <0.01) for ranking of quarters 1997 to 2001 All violence TRC ACLED_v4 SLls-LED UCPD_GED B&M TRC ACLED_v4 0.4486 SLls-LED 0.3863 0.5744 UCPD_GED 0.7959 0.5851 0.7177 B&M 0.4342 0.5021 0.7762 0.7344 Table V Spearman correlation for percentage of fighting per month 1997 to 2001 All violence TRC ACLED_v4 SLls-LED UCPD_GED B&M TRC 0.9735 ACLED_v4 0.1587 0.9418 SLls-LED 0.4444 *** 0.0926 0.9841 UCPD_GED 0.5503 *** 0.3413 *** 0.5794 *** 0.9524 B&M 0.2196 * 0.0741 0.2751 ** 0.4153 *** 0.9206 Table VI KT rank correlation for ranking per month 1997 to 2001 VAC only 6
SLls-LED UCPD_GED B&G SLls-LED UCPD_GED 0.8513 B&G 0.7915 0.7080 Table VII Spearman correlation (N=13) for percentage of fighting per district 1991 to 2001 All violence NOT- NPWJ NPWJ Bo 6 6 Bombali 9 10 Bonthe 13 5 Kailahun 2 7 Kambia 12 12 Kenema 4 1 Koinadugu 10 11 Kono 1 2 Moyamba 11 4 Port Loko 5 3 Pujehun 7 9 Tonkolili 8 8 Western Ara 3 13 Table VIII: Seperation UCDP-GED violence based on local vs. secondary sources TRC SLls-LED UCPD_GED B&M TRC SLls-LED 0.2564 0.2299 UCPD_GED 0.2692 0.2018 0.7821 *** 0.8954 0.9872 0.5897 *** 0.7531 B&M 0.4231 ** 0.4826 0.6795 *** 0.8026 0.9872 Table IX KT corr. & Spearman correlation for ranking & percentage 1991 to 2001 VAC & Looting TRC SLls-LED UCPD_GED B&M TRC SLls-LED 0.4359 ** 0.6107 UCPD_GED 0.3718 * 0.4558 0.7564 *** 0.8648 0.9872 B&M 0.3974 * 0.5965 0.6026 *** 0.8155 0.5897 *** 0.7531 0.9872 Table X KT corr. & Spearman correlation for ranking & percentage district 1991 to 2001 VAC 7
Battles One-Sided Total Democratic Republic of Congo (Zaire) 578 1.424 2.002 Liberia 179 371 550 Central African Republic (CAR) 65 131 196 Sierra Leone 617 857 1.474 Rwanda 205 265 470 Senegal 153 133 286 Chad 163 137 300 Republic of Congo 117 98 215 Sudan 1.028 739 1.767 Burundi 869 518 1.387 Mozambique 166 97 263 Uganda 1.109 546 1.655 Kenya 289 134 423 Egypt 259 114 373 Nigeria 321 110 431 South Africa 2.233 550 2.783 Angola 1.566 352 1.918 Ethiopia 1.201 151 1.352 Somalia 1.799 162 1.961 Algeria 3.374 289 3.663 Table XI UCDP-GED violence, country-type (1989-2010, conflicts <150 excluded) News Human Rights Undefined Total Sierra Leone Battles 307 212 60 579 One-Sided 78 677 102 857 Countries One-sided > Battle Battles 601 83 316 1.000 One-Sided 399 989 635 2.023 Countries One-sided < Battle Battles 10.592 202 3.527 14.321 One-Sided 2.132 739 1.229 4.100 Table XII UCDP-GED violence by source (1989-2010, conflicts <150 excluded) 8
Figure5: volatility monthly event numbers Total Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Kenema 1.017 123 643 229 22 Port Loko 1.002 4 188 571 239 Kono 920 141 163 489 127 Bo 770 117 561 90 2 Kailahun 717 373 101 186 57 Pujehun 647 384 88 172 3 Moyamba 638 2 431 201 4 Bonthe 630 162 367 90 11 Koinadugu 624 32 101 326 165 Tonkolili 583 1 223 258 101 Western Area 433 24 84 311 14 Bombali 341-31 229 81 Kambia 240-26 162 52 Table XIII: district victimization number of events 9
Figure 6: rate of in/decrease conflict intensity (1993-2001) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Specifics VAC Chiefdom VAC Chiefdom/Month VAC Chiefdom/Month Battles.28(.08)***.18(.01)***.78(.07)*** Territorial Take-over.89(.07)***.72 (.01)*** 1.26 (.06)*** Constant 1.23(.80) -.06(.01) -2.77(.04) Number of Observations 296 20020 20020 Number of Groups R2 Type Table XIV: VAC explanation - 38% OLS 154 38% OLS 154 - Nbreg RUF 1993 RUF/NPFL* 1991-1992 RUF/NPFL 1991-1992 VAC per battle 1,53 1,04 5,71 (weighted average) SD 0,69 0,69 4,28 Table XV: VAC per battle/actor, *April and May 1991 excluded. 10
Totals Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 1991-1993 1993-1996 1997-1999 1999-2001 Violence 8786 1394 3041 3377 947 Nr Months 130 33 41 26 30 Month 68 42 74 130 32 Battle 14 8 12 27 9 VAC + Looting 30 20 33 65 12 Take-over 24 14 29 44 12 Success Success % Battle (RUF- 23-40 26-59 25-49 22-37 16-11 GOV/allies) Success % Territory (RUF- GOV/allies) 69-31 69-31 80 20 61-39 52-48 Actors Conflict Hierarch RUF (58%) RUF(57%) RUF(67%) RUF(51%) RUF(54%) Remaining hierarchy (all violence) SLA CDF EXT AFRC SLA NPFL CDF EXT STF SLA CDF EXT CDF EXT AFRC WSB EXT CDF SLA WSB Active General Dyads 19 13 15 18 15 Active Specific Dyads 195 63 53 98 53 Dominant Dyad - Battle RUF-SLA RUF-SLA RUF-SLA RUF-EXT RUF-CDF % joint operations RUF 29% 57% 0% 56% 1% % joint operations GOV/Allies 14% 28% 9% 12% 16% VAC matching Battle? Battle battle ~battle battle battle Correlation Battle-VAC.63.57.26.74.32 Table XVI Key variables conflict environments 11
Figure 7: Spatial patterns four conflict environments 12