Interviews: N=834 Likely Voters in Competitive U.S. House and Senate Races Interviewing Period: July 3-13, 2014 Margin of Error = ± 4.1% for Full Sample, ± 5.6% House (n=425), ± 5.7% for Senate (n=409) Designed and Directed by: SocialSphere, Inc. Conducted by: GfK using sample from KnowledgePanel Mode: Online (in English and Spanish) Note: The sum of percentages for each question may not add up to 100% as each response is rounded to the nearest percent. 1. We understand that plenty of people are not registered to vote, but we are wondering if you are registered to vote? Yes... 100% 2. Are you registered to vote at your home address? Yes... 100% 3. How likely is it that you will vote in the general midterm elections for Congress in November? Definitely will be voting... 75% Probably will be voting... 25% 4. Regardless of how likely you are to vote, how enthusiastic are you about this election? NET: Not Enthusiastic... 9% 0 - Not at all enthusiastic... 3% 1... 3% 2... 3% 3... 5% 4... 7% 5... 19% 6... 14% 7... 13% NET: Enthusiastic... 32% 8... 11% 9... 6% 10 - Extremely enthusiastic... 14%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 2 5. When it comes to voting, with which party do you consider yourself to be affiliated? NET: Democrat... 36% Strong Democrat... 25% Not a very strong Democrat... 11% NET: Republican... 34% Strong Republican... 22% Not a very strong Republican... 12% NET: Independent/Unaffiliated... 29% Leans Democrat... 9% Leans Republican... 11% Does not lean either way... 10% 6. Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a supporter of the Tea Party movement? Supporter... 19% Not a supporter... 55% Not sure... 26% 7. All in all, do you think that things in the nation are...? Generally headed in the right direction... 21% Off on the wrong track... 55% Not sure what direction the country is headed in... 24% 8. Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about the United States generally optimistic or generally pessimistic? Optimistic... 48% Pessimistic... 52%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 3 9. Thinking about national issues for a moment, which issue concerns you most? (Open-ended question coded responses) NET: Economy... 45% Economy - General... 21% Jobs... 10% National debt/ budget/government spending... 5% Financial stability... 5% Taxes... 3% Economic equality/inequality... 1% Health care - General.... 9% Immigration... 8% National Security/ war/ defense cuts... 7% Government/ political corruption... 6% Education... 4% Environment.... 4% President Obama/lack of leadership.... 3% Social/religious problems... 3% Terrorism.... 2% Foreign Affairs... 2% Lack of moral values.... 2% Socialism... * Social Security.... * Other... 8% None... 1% Don t know... 1% Declined to answer... 4% In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of: 10. Barack Obama as president. NET: Approve... 43% Strongly approve... 15% Somewhat approve... 28% NET: Disapprove... 57% Somewhat disapprove... 13% Strongly disapprove... 44%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 4 11. The Democrats in Congress. NET: Approve... 36% Strongly approve... 8% Somewhat approve... 28% NET: Disapprove... 63% Somewhat disapprove... 26% Strongly disapprove... 37% 12. The Republicans in Congress. NET: Approve... 26% Strongly approve... 3% Somewhat approve... 24% NET: Disapprove... 73% Somewhat disapprove... 35% Strongly disapprove... 38% 13. If the election for the [U.S. House of Representatives/U.S. Senate] were held today, would you vote for the [Democratic candidate] or the [Republican candidate] in [your district/your state]? Republican candidate... 39% Democratic candidate... 37% Don't know... 23% [If Don t know in Q13, ask] 14. As of now, do you lean toward the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? (n=196) Lean: Republican candidate... 21% Lean: Democratic candidate... 22% Don't know... 56%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 5 2014 Election Vote With Leaners Allocated Republican candidate... 44% Democratic candidate... 42% Don't know... 13% 15. Which of the following comes closest to your own view regarding the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? Keep the law as it is... 17% Keep the law, but with modifications... 38% Repeal the law... 45% 16. Which party do you trust more to handle foreign policy, [the Democratic party] or [the Republican party]? Republican party... 39% Democratic party... 32% Not sure... 28% 17. How important is a candidate s position on foreign policy in determining which candidate you support in November? NET: Important... 89% Very important... 38% Somewhat important... 51% NET: Not Important... 10% Not very important... 9% Not at all important... 2%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 6 18. How would you rate the job that Hillary Clinton did as Secretary of State? Excellent... 14% Good... 28% Fair... 21% Poor... 32% Not sure... 5% 19. Do you support or oppose the current plan to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016? NET: Support... 77% Strongly support... 46% Somewhat support... 31% NET: Oppose... 23% Somewhat oppose... 16% Strongly oppose... 7% 20. Do you believe that the situation in Iraq affects the national security of the U.S. a lot, a little, or not much at all? A lot... 42% A little... 38% Not much at all... 13% Not sure... 6% In each of the following situations, please indicate whether the U.S. should be more involved, less involved, or maintain its current level of involvement. 21. The civil war in Syria. More involvement... 15% Less involvement... 42% Maintain current level... 26% Not sure... 17%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 7 22. Russia s aggression in Ukraine. More involvement... 17% Less involvement... 34% Maintain current level... 31% Not sure... 17% 23. The civil war in Iraq. More involvement... 19% Less involvement... 44% Maintain current level... 23% Not sure... 14% 24. Which of the following statements comes closest to your own view? U.S. military actions should be limited to direct threats to our national security... 67% As the world s moral leader, the U.S. has a responsibility to use its military to protect democracy around the globe... 22% Not sure... 10%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 8 The following is a list of national political figures that could come to your state to endorse and campaign for candidates running for the U.S. House or Senate. Please indicate whether an endorsement by each would make you more likely to support a candidate, less likely or would it make no difference. 25. Hillary Clinton. NET: More Likely... 33% Much more likely... 16% Somewhat more likely... 16% No difference... 24% NET: Less Likely... 41% Somewhat less likely... 8% Much less likely... 33% Never heard of this person... 1% 26. Bill Clinton. NET: More Likely... 36% Much more likely... 17% Somewhat more likely... 19% No difference... 24% NET: Less Likely... 38% Somewhat less likely... 10% Much less likely... 28% Never heard of this person... 1% Decline to answer... 2% 27. Barack Obama. NET: More Likely... 32% Much more likely... 16% Somewhat more likely... 16% No difference... 21% NET: Less Likely... 45% Somewhat less likely... 4% Much less likely... 41% Never heard of this person... 1%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 9 28. Elizabeth Warren. NET: More Likely... 16% Much more likely... 7% Somewhat more likely... 9% No difference... 35% NET: Less Likely... 26% Somewhat less likely... 6% Much less likely... 20% Never heard of this person... 22% 29. Joe Biden. NET: More Likely... 26% Much more likely... 9% Somewhat more likely... 17% No difference... 30% NET: Less Likely... 41% Somewhat less likely... 7% Much less likely... 34% Never heard of this person... 2% 30. Chris Christie. NET: More Likely... 19% Much more likely... 4% Somewhat more likely... 15% No difference... 36% NET: Less Likely... 35% Somewhat less likely... 12% Much less likely... 23% Never heard of this person... 7% Decline to answer... 2%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 10 31. Jeb Bush. NET: More Likely... 23% Much more likely... 7% Somewhat more likely... 17% No difference... 34% NET: Less Likely... 36% Somewhat less likely... 10% Much less likely... 26% Never heard of this person... 5% Decline to answer... 2% 32. Rand Paul. NET: More Likely... 25% Much more likely... 8% Somewhat more likely... 17% No difference... 33% NET: Less Likely... 34% Somewhat less likely... 10% Much less likely... 24% Never heard of this person... 6% 33. Ted Cruz. NET: More Likely... 15% Much more likely... 6% Somewhat more likely... 9% No difference... 33% NET: Less Likely... 33% Somewhat less likely... 6% Much less likely... 27% Never heard of this person... 17%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 11 34. Mitt Romney. NET: More Likely... 27% Much more likely... 9% Somewhat more likely... 18% No difference... 31% NET: Less Likely... 40% Somewhat less likely... 11% Much less likely... 29% Never heard of this person... 1% Decline to answer... 2% 35. In general, do you like to talk about current events with your friends? Yes... 62% No... 38% 36. Do you have the feeling that your friends and neighbors generally regard you as a good source of advice about current events? Yes... 45% No... 54% 37. In the last year, have you posted political-oriented content or commentary on a social media site? Yes... 20% No... 80%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 12 38. In the past 2 years have you been an active participant in a civic, community or political organization? Yes... 20% No... 79% 39. In the past 2 years have you donated money to a political or issues-based cause? Yes... 23% No... 77% 40. When it comes to most political issues, do you think of yourself as a...? Liberal... 22% Moderate... 35% Conservative... 43% [If Moderate in Q40, ask] 41. As a moderate, which way do you lean? (n=294) Liberal... 24% Moderate... 46% Conservative... 29% 42. What is your religion? Protestant (e.g., Methodist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, Episcopal)... 26% Catholic... 18% Baptist-any denomination... 17% Pentecostal... 4% Jewish... 2% Mormon... 1% Muslim... * Eastern Orthodox... * Other Christian... 11% Other non-christian... 2% None... 17%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 13 [If anything except None in Q42, ask] 43. How important is religion in your own life? (n=689) Very important... 59% Somewhat important... 28% Not very important... 12% Not sure... 1% [If Baptist, Protestant, Catholic, Pentecostal, or Other Christian in Q42, ask] 44. Do you consider yourself a born-again, or evangelical Christian? (n=642) Yes... 45% No... 46% Not sure... 3% Decline to answer... 5% 45. How often do you attend religious services? More than once a week... 10% Once a week... 32% Once or twice a month... 7% A few times a year... 15% Once a year... 4% Less than once a year... 12% Never... 19% 46. Are you or is any member of your household a union member? Yes... 19% No... 81%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 14 [If Yes in Q46, ask] 47. Is the union that you or a household member belongs to a public employee union or a labor union? (n=156) Public employee union... 40% Labor union... 56% Both... 3% 48. Age 18-24... 9% 25-34... 9% 35-44... 17% 45-54... 14% 55-64... 24% 65-74... 19% 75+... 8% 49. Highest level of education Less than high school... 6% High school... 27% Some college... 31% Bachelor's degree or higher... 36% 50. Race / Ethnicity White, Non-Hispanic... 80% Black, Non-Hispanic... 10% Hispanic... 5% Other, Non-Hispanic... 4% 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic... 1% 51. Gender Male... 54% Female... 46%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 15 52. Housing A one-family house detached from any other house... 81% A one-family house attached to one or more houses... 7% A building with 2 or more apartments... 10% A mobile home... 2% Boat, RV, van, etc.... * 53. Household Income Less than $20,000... 8% $20,000 to $49,999... 24% $50,000 to $74,999... 20% $75,000 to $99,999... 20% Over $100,000... 27% 54. Marital Status Married... 61% Never married... 18% Divorced... 9% Widowed... 5% Living with partner... 5% Separated... 1% 55. Region New England... 4% Mid-Atlantic... 7% East-North Central... 17% West-North Central... 10% South Atlantic... 27% East South Central... 5% West-South Central... 9% Mountain... 11% Pacific... 10% 56. Ownership Status of Living Quarters Owned or being bought by you or someone in your household... 83% Rented for cash... 14% Occupied without payment of cash rent.. 3%
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 16 57. Current Employment Status Working as a paid employee... 53% Working self-employed... 6% Not working on a temporary layoff... 1% Not working looking for work... 4% Not working - retired... 28% Not working - disabled... 3% Not working other... 6% 58. Language of Interview English... 99% Spanish... 1% 59. Household Internet Access Yes... 83% No... 17% Methodology Partnering with SocialSphere, Inc., of Cambridge, Massachusetts which designed and directed the survey POLITICO surveyed 834 likely voters in the states and districts with the most competitive Senate and House races, as ranked by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Conducted from July 3-13, the survey was administered on the web by GfK, using a sample from KnowledgePanel, a large, national, probability-based online-survey panel. Respondents completed the online survey in English and Spanish; the average completion time was 8 minutes. While the polls are completed online, KnowledgePanel s sampling frame includes Americans living in households without Internet access. GfK sends mailers in English and Spanish to random addresses in the U.S. Postal Service s database. Recruits can join the panel by mailing back a form, calling a toll-free phone number or visiting a website. GfK provides those who want to join the panel but don t have Internet access with a computer and/or free Internet access. This sampling method addresses some criticisms of online polls namely, that respondents are selfselecting. Unlike so-called opt-in panels for which firms recruit members via pop-up ads or ads on websites which anyone can join, KnowledgePanel is only comprised of those Americans randomly selected through GfK s address-based sampling. A design summary for KnowledgePanel is available here: http://marketing.gfkamerica.com/knowledgenetworks/knpanel/docs/knowledgepanel(r)-design- Summary-Description.pdf The margin of error for the full sample is plus-or-minus 4.1 percentage points. For likely voters in competitive Senate states, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 5.7 percentage points. For likely voters in competitive House districts, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 5.6 percentage points. Likely voters were surveyed in the following states with competitive Senate elections: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Oregon, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia.
LV Competitive U.S. House & Senate July 3-13, 2014 17 Additionally, likely voters were surveyed in the following competitive House districts: Arizona-01, Arizona-02, Arizona-09, Arkansas-02, Arkansas-04, California-07, California-10, California-21, California-26, California-31, California-36, California-52, Colorado-06, Connecticut-05, Florida-02, Florida-18, Florida-26, Georgia-12, Illinois-10, Illinois-11, Illinois-12, Illinois-13, Illinois-17, Indiana-02, Iowa-01, Iowa-02, Iowa-03, Iowa-04, Maine-02, Massachusetts-06, Michigan-01, Michigan-07, Michigan-08, Michigan-11, Minnesota-02, Minnesota-07, Minnesota-08, Montana-AL, Nebraska-02, Nevada-03, Nevada-04, New Hampshire-01, New Hampshire-02, New Jersey-02, New Jersey-03, New Mexico-02, New York-01, New York-04, New York-11, New York-18, New York-19, New York-21, New York-23, New York-24, Ohio-06, Ohio-14, Pennsylvania-06, Pennsylvania-08, Texas-23, Utah-04, Virginia-02, Virginia-10, West Virginia-01, West Virginia-02, West Virginia-03 and Wisconsin-06.